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Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor - Analyses, Simulations and Commentaries

We really don't know much at this point. We'll update these numbers once we do. In the meantime, find other scenario simulations at Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

kiel.institute

Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to the impact of tariffs and trade wars.

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Take the numbers with a huge grain of salt, but the measures obviously also significantly increase deflationary pressure in Eurozone and inflationary pressure in US: Price index dives across Europe, with 🇩🇪 –2.70%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –2.43%, versus global uptick of +0.69%. 3/n

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Should this be enacted and stay in place for about a year, we expect exports to the US collapse: 🇩🇪 Germany –23.85%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –20.64%, global trade barely moves at –0.30%. 2/n

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RETHINK-GSC @rethink-gsc.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: Trump just suggested additional 50% tariff on all goods imports from EU. This one would hurt the EU: 🇩🇪 Germany real output falls –0.78%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –0.66%, 🇺🇸 US -1.51%. In EU hardest hit sector is transportation (automotive, aircraft, etc.): -5% real production. 1/n

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

📈 📊 Two days of lively discussion & exchange on global supply chains, intangibles, and services. The RETHINK-GSC Gdańsk Workshop offered valuable insights & fresh perspectives for application. Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-... #RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU

Keynote speaker Andreas Moxnes from the Norwegian Business School stands in front of his presentation while delivering his speech.

RETHINK-GSC researcher Aleksandra Parteka, who is a professor of economics at the Gdańsk University of Technology and the host of the workshop, is gesturing while presenting her research on funding structures and university patenting.

Agnes Kügler, a RETHINK-GSC researcher and a senior economist at the WIFO, points to the formula used in her latest research on the effects of patent litigation and trade, which is displayed on the screen.

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Marco Herack @mh120480.eurosky.social · 20/05/2025

Neue Folge MikroGespräch (Premium): Ich habe mit mich mit @julianhi.nz über Zölle unterhalten. Von ihrer Funktion über die Trump'schen Auswirkungen und ob man das alles 'Strafzölle' oder 'globaler Handelskrieg' nennen sollte. mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...

mikrooekonomen.de

(Premium)MikroGespräch044 mit Julian Hinz über Donald Trumps Handelskrieg - Mikroökonomen

Julian Hinz und Marco Herack besprechen Zölle. Was sie sind, wohin sie führen und wie Donald Trumps Zölle wirken könnten. Da Wortwahl manchmal schwierig ist, fragen wir uns auch: Befinden wir uns in e...

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 20/05/2025

📢 Kiel Trade Talks #8 - Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University & Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data. Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 16/05/2025

…and the rest of the workshop didn’t disappoint either - great keynote, two more paper presentations, many conversations, sharp minds, and plenty of inspiration! Thanks to all speakers and participants 👏! @cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social

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Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 15/05/2025

Great start to the Kiel-CEPR "Firms in International Trade" workshop in Berlin today! Insightful presentations by Paola Conconi, Holger Breinlich, @emilyjblanchard.bsky.social & @aggraziano.bsky.social! Up next: keynote by @imanelici.bsky.social – looking forward! 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 14/05/2025

Trump’s 'Liberation Day' marks a retreat from multilateralism. In this joint statement w/ @svrwirtschaft.bsky.social, CAE @cepii-paris.bsky.social the authors call on the EU to respond w/ strategic retaliation, support for EU firms & leadership in defending open trade www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Jaleks @jaleks.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

In dieser öffentlichen Vorlesung analysieren zwei Experten für Internationale Volkswirtschaftslehre – Professor Gerald Willmann, Ph.D., und Professor Dr. Julian Hinz (@julianhi.nz) von der Universität #Bielefeld – die wirtschaftlichen Hintergründe und Folgen dieser Entwicklung. 13.05.25, 18:30, H15

aktuell.uni-bielefeld.de

Zölle und Unsicherheit: Eine neue Ära des Protektionismus? Auswirkungen auf die globale Wirtschaft

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PS: To reiterate — the US tariffs are now still about 6x (six!) as high as they were in January. Or if you like big numbers, +500%. This is not a win for the US administration, they reduce their self-induced harm a bit.

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Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor - Analyses, Simulations and Commentaries

Bottom line: Tariff pause reduces immediate damage, especially for the US, but uncertainty remains high. More data and scenarios on the Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

kiel.institute

Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to the impact of tariffs and trade wars.

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Price impacts remain significant: 🇺🇸 US prices now reduced to (!) +4.27% within 1yr, 🇨🇳 China sees -1.51% deflationary pressure. 🇩🇪 Germany (-0.38%), 🇪🇺 EU (-0.27%) similar to before. 3/n

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There will be a big catching-up in Chinese exports to the US now — but remember, exports still face +30% tariffs: Within 1 year, we still see 🇨🇳 China’s export drop to US by -19.10%. 2/n

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Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 14/04/2025

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: US-China 90-day tariff pause provides short-term relief. US real GDP impact improves from -1.6% to -1.29%, and inflation eases to +4.3%. 🇨🇳 China’s real GDP loss shrinks to -0.5%. 🇩🇪 Germany and 🇪🇺 EU hardly move compared to previous situation (-0.22% and -0.14%). 1/n

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

How do China’s rare earth export restrictions shape global innovation and trade? 📈 Join the next - very timely - Kiel Trade Talk with @janschymik.bsky.social 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev... @julianhi.nz

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

WIFO @wifo.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

#WIFO Research Brief: neue Zollpolitik der USA konfrontiert die EU mit wachsender handelspolitischer Unsicherheit. Drei Szenarien, mit denen die EU auf protektionistische Tendenzen reagieren kann, werden analysiert. @hendrikmahlkow.com @sonalichowdhry.bsky.social @julianhi.nz buff.ly/m5eXspM

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · 08/04/2025

CAVEAT: This is a trade model that we know works well for significant changes in trade costs. But what's here goes beyond trade—and beyond what this model captures. Take these numbers with a heavy dose of salt. 3/3

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · 08/04/2025

Should these new tariffs stay for some time, 🇺🇸 US imports from 🇪🇺 EU could rise (!), as they’re now cheaper than those from 🇨🇳 China, where imports collapse. 🇪🇺 imports from 🇨🇳 obviously increase, but far from flood: 🇨🇳 also redirects exports to other markets—as long as they don’t raise barriers too. 2/3

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Julian Hinz @julianhi.nz · 08/04/2025

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis Update: Additional +34% tariffs by 🇨🇳 China on imports from 🇺🇸 USA, and in response an additional +50% tariffs vice versa (total 104% 🤯). Numbers largely speak for themselves, with relatively stable figures for bystanders (EU, also BRICS) hiding significant trade diversion. 1/3

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

The Kiel Institute is on fire – they modelled the impact of Trump’s trade war. Check out the chart. The numbers come with the usual uncertainty, but they give a good sense of the eye-popping inflation the US is now facing. Via @davideoneglia.bsky.social Paper here: www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/kiel-...

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 04/04/2025

@julianhi.nz & team on fire! Follow him for Insta-Analysis on all things trade - especially #tariffs right now. Also on 👉 www.kiel.institute/tariffs

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Reposted by Julian Hinz

🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: New "reciprocal" US tariffs are serious. We ran both status quo (tariffs until April 2 incl. retaliation) and newly announced reciprocal tariff regime through the KITE model. (Non-) spoiler: 🇺🇸 hits itself the hardest. NB: Short-run, extremely ad-hoc. 1/n

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Big caveats: This is a trade model and we're really pushing it. We're in uncharted territory here in terms of policies. Also, reciprocal tariffs scenario has no retaliation, which would likely dampen price effects in US.

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Bottom line: Tariff escalation backfires hard. The US loses the most — on output, prices, and exports. This is not "reciprocity," it’s self-harm. 5/5

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Export collapse is staggering: 🇺🇸 exports plunge -24.52% under "reciprocal" tariffs, from an already steep -13.66%. 🇨🇳 China: -3.05%, 🇪🇺 EU27: -1.06%. Global trade takes a beating. 4/n

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Price effects (HUGE grain of salt) are even more dramatic: 🇺🇸 consumer prices up 9.16% (!?!), while 🇩🇪 Germany (-1.42%) and 🇨🇳 China (-2.97%) see deflationary pressure. Not sure what to make of this, really. 3/n

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Under current tariffs, 🇺🇸 real output drops -1.18%. Under the new plan? -1.92%. Global output falls almost 1% (-0.98%). Reciprocal tariffs amplify losses across the board, incl. 🇩🇪 Germany (-0.49%) and 🇫🇷 France (-0.18%). 2/n

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