doi.org
Climate change experienced by life on Earth - drivers and mechanisms of future trends in microclimates
Microclimate affects organisms more directly than macroclimate, yet its long-term dynamics and drivers of decadal microclimate changes remain underexplored in ecology and global change biology. The general assumption is that microclimatic changes track macroclimate trends. However, changes in meteorological conditions (e.g., cloud cover, wind patterns) and vegetation dynamics (e.g., canopy thinning, desertification in drylands, shrub encroachment in the tundra) associated with climate change can lead to locally divergent microclimate trends, thereby altering spatial variability. Understanding and quantifying how climate change observed in standardized weather stations translates to fine-scale microclimate change experienced by organisms, populations and communities is therefore essential for predicting ecological responses to global environmental change. This review examines how macroclimate change drives microclimate changes as experienced by life on Earth - and how these micro-scale changes may, in turn, feed back into the regional and global climate system. While our primary focus is on near-surface air and soil temperature - due to their relevance to most terrestrial organisms and ecosystem processes - we also discuss other tightly linked key climatic variables such as humidity and radiation. The review is structured around three pathways of microclimate changes: (I) direct effects of changes in meteorological conditions, (II) indirect effects via vegetation changes, and (III) feedbacks between microclimate and climate change. Using three mechanistic model simulations in real-world landscapes, we exemplify and quantify the key mechanisms that lead to divergent warming trends. By integrating perspectives from meteorology, climate science, and ecology, this review advances our understanding of the feedbacks between the biosphere, pedosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere. We argue that deciphering microclimate change is crucial to bridging the gap between climate science and its application in global change biology.