Sign in

Juan David Gelvez

@juangelvezf.bsky.social
21 followers 16 following 15 posts

#Georgetown Research Fellow | Ph.D. Candidate (ABD) #UofMaryland | Politics of Crime & of the Environment. Website: juangelvezf.github.io

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Juan David Gelvez
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 24/03/2026
NEW ISSUE - Latin American Politics and Society - Volume 68 - Issue 1 - cup.org/4rU8sSm w/ papers by @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social, @merikeblofield.bsky.social, @ecalvo68.bsky.social, @juangelvezf.bsky.social, @juancangulo.bsky.social & more
Maroon banner with the text "Latin American Politics and Society" and "New Issue" in white and yellow lettering. Decorative gold lines adorn the lower left corner.
031
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
"These insights hold promise for future interdisciplinary research as well as practical policy design (...) it represents a notable advance in empirical understandings of state violence, employing state-of-the-art machine learning tools" scienmag.com/machine-lear...
scienmag.com
Machine Learning Predicts Police Violence in Latin America
In a groundbreaking application of machine learning to the study of state violence, recent research delves deeply into the factors driving extrajudicial killings in Colombia and Mexico. Using advanced
010
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
#LaCronicaDeHoy "Esta investigación es relevante para entender las dinámicas del conflicto en México más allá de las acciones por parte de las organizaciones criminales." www.cronica.com.mx/opinion/2025...
cronica.com.mx
Si tan solo hubiera sabido
Si tan solo hubiera sabido
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
My most recent published article has received some media attention! 👮🚓 Check it out here 🧵 See my full article here: nature.com/articles/s4159… #PoliceViolence #MachineLearning
nature.com
110
Reposted by Juan David Gelvez
Climate, Ecology, War & More: Dr. Glen Barry BigEarthData.ai @bigearthdata.ai · 09/06/2025
Predicting police and military violence: evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models ->Nature | #MachineLearning | More info from EcoSearch
nature.com
Predicting police and military violence: evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models
In this section, I show the results of the predictive performance of four machine learning models trained to identify instances of police and military misconduct in Colombia and Mexico. The models include a regularized logistic regression model (Lasso), an extreme...
011
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
So excited to see my first solo-authored paper in English officially accepted! Stay tuned for more research on crime, institutions, and quantitative methods
000
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
While these analyses are predictive and not intended to establish causal relationships, I also employ feature importance analysis to reveal the main drivers of police and military violence in both countries
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
The study combines Lasso, Random Forests, XGBoost, Neural Networks, and a Super Learner ensemble to anticipate misconduct by the military and police at the municipal level. #MilitaryMisconduct
110
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Using detailed subnational data from Colombia and Mexico, I built several machine learning models to predict violence by armed forces, achieving over 92% accuracy 📈 #PoliceViolence
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
I'm excited to share that my article "Predicting Police and Military Violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models" has been officially accepted for publication at @nature.com HSScomms! 📚 See a draft version here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
<div> <p>Predicting police and military violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models <b></b></p> </div>
<div> <p>Armed forces violence has pervasive effects on public trust and population well-being. Such misconduct is not random, making its prevention both cruci
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
In Latin America, police and military abuses remain widespread. Thousands of civilians have been victims of extrajudicial executions and human rights violations in Colombia and Mexico alone What if we could predict where violence is likely to happen?
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Versión preliminar aquí: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Más cosas por venir en temas de crimen, política y otros métodos cuanti 🎯 #violenciapolicial
papers.ssrn.com
<div> <p>Predicting police and military violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models <b></b></p> </div>
<div> <p>Armed forces violence has pervasive effects on public trust and population well-being. Such misconduct is not random, making its prevention both cruci
000
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Aunque los análisis son predictivos y no buscan establecer relaciones causales, también miro la importancia de variables para identificar los principales factores que explican la violencia en ambos países
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Combino diferentes métodos de IA como Lasso, Random Forests, XGBoost, Redes Neuronales y un Super Learner ensemble para anticipar la violencia militar y policial a nivel municipal
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Utilizando datos subnacionales de Colombia y México, construí varios modelos de aprendizaje automático para predecir violencia por parte de las fuerzas armadas, logrando una precisión superior al 92% 📈
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Mi artículo "Predicting Police and Military Violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models" ha sido aceptado para publicación en @nature.com (Humanities & Social Sciences Communications) 📚 y ahí estudio justamente la predicción y prevención de la violencia policial
100
Juan David Gelvez @juangelvezf.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
En América Latina, la violencia policial y militar continúa siendo un reto de política. Miles de civiles continuan siendo víctimas de violaciones a los DD.HH. Prevenir la violencia de las Fuerzas es clave para mantener la confianza en las instituciones y el Estado de Derecho 📸France24
100
Reposted by Juan David Gelvez
SIGLA @sigladata.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
SIGLA is excited to invite you to the 2025 Hackathon! It's an exciting event to develop innovative ways to analyze data on legal and political institutions in Latin America. Interested members of the Georgetown community can register for this event using the QR code on the flyer!
001
Reposted by Juan David Gelvez
Michael Weintraub @miweintraub83.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
“Lo obvio y lo correcto.” Mi columna en @ElPaisAmericaCo: a pesar de la violencia en el Catatumbo, volver a la erradicación forzosa de la hoja de coca sería un error. Mejor que el Estado ejerza su función reguladora del mercado. elpais.com/america-colo...
141
Reposted by Juan David Gelvez
SIGLA @sigladata.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Excited to join Bluesky! We’re SIGLA (States & Institutions of Governance in Latin America), a multilingual database on LatAm political and legal institutions. Based at Georgetown University, we aim to advance research & government transparency. Explore www.sigladata.org and follow us for updates!
sigladata.org
SIGLA – Your gateway to governance in Latin America
If you have ideas for the SIGLA website or suggestions about the data SIGLA provides, we would love to hear from you!
001