Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 03/10/2026This map is now a “the polls were basically correct” scenario. 100
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 01/10/2026It’s a curious quirk of the Fox polls that their LV screens benefit Rs RVs are Talarico +7, Turek +4 But while I don’t actually think that 2026’s electorate will be better for Rs than the full RV pool, the LV results are more reasonable imo 3275
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦River_Tam @rivertam.bsky.social · 01/10/2026We're at the "everyone declares their intent to vote for Democrats bc they see the writing on the wall and want to get some credit for the Democrats winning" part of the cycle 2274
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Seems like pollsters are becoming increasingly suspicious Trump voters are lying about about who they voted for in 2024. Which is a problem if you’re weighting to recalled 2024 vote. 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 01/10/2026October is here, basically a month out from the midterms at this point, states really start coming online for IPEV in the next few days. Trump admin running out of time for anything to meaningfully improve the environment. 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Watching cable TV for the first time in a while and I don’t know how you people in actual swings states do it. The political ads are wall to wall.static.klipy.comAll Is Well: Chaotic Office with Burning LogALT: All Is Well: Chaotic Office with Burning Log 010
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 30/09/2026static.klipy.comTick Tock Samuel L JacksonALT: Tick Tock Samuel L Jackson 010
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Quinnipiac up to D+12.poll.qu.eduGeneric Ballot For Control Of U.S. House: Dems 51%, GOP 39%, Dem Party Ahead On Key Issues, Boosted By Independents, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 71% Prefer Candidates Who Support St..."A warning light flashing red for the GOP scrambling to stay in power. From the economy to international conflicts to AI, independent voters are siding with Democrats, even though a vast majority of t... 010
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026To give folks the picture on what scale we're talking here. If polls are right on about D+8 that's Dems at 230+ seats in the House and probably barely flipping the Senate. D+12 (which primary turnout hints at) would mean 250+ Dem House seats are in play and 54-56 D Senate seats. 2174
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Just when I thought maybe polls were starting to revert just a tad we get Suffolk and Marist showing Ohio looking like 2008 and two generic ballots at D+15 and D+16. 110
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 27/09/2026The thing about the Senate is it feels like the Dem seat count outcomes are bimodal. 50 or 51 feel possible but less likely than either 49 or 52. Fetterman being the 51st vote is possible but not probable. Also, if he does switch Murkowski also get permission to either switch or go indy. 010
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 26/09/2026great piece. man social media is a cancer themomoftheyear.substack.com/p/im-the-mom...themomoftheyear.substack.comI’m the Mom in That Viral Giants Clip. Let Me Tell You About My Husband.You saw me carrying our baby and food. There was more happening in our family that night. 12352971372
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 24/09/2026The “what’s the matter with Kansas?” universe. 011
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Feels like we are due for some Fox Beacon/Shaw truth nukes. 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Folks if it’s a D+11 election Dems are probably going to end up with 52-53 Senate seats. Does Susan Collins survive? It’s definitely possible but I don’t think it’s likely. Maybe she could survive an environment like that a decade ago but not now. 100
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 23/09/2026My hot take is the Dem brand has problems but a big part of the issue is the Dems are overdue for a generational handoff. If they nominate a younger candidate for POTUS that is seen as a changing of the guard, it’ll help significantly. Lot of baggage left over from HRC/Biden/Harris still. 121
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Statewide precinct numbers, keeping in mind that the baseline is 2025 here 1172
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Kinda surprised no politician is running on “I will ban the spam calls”. Feels like this was a fixed problem for a few years and now I probably get 10 calls a day. 010
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 23/09/2026If we were in a D+10/11 environment you expect polls ranging from D+6ish to D+14ish….seems like what we are getting. 000
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.49/gal in #Florida today. 33511
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 23/09/2026We have had only one other “10 year itch” midterm for a president serving a 2nd non-consecutive term in our history, 1894. It did *not* go well for the incumbent party to put it mildly. 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 22/09/2026static.klipy.comJoker (Heath Ledger) Leaning Out of Police CarALT: Joker (Heath Ledger) Leaning Out of Police Car 010
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Tentatively what I found at the precinct level, I think some of the numbers might be a bit finnicky, but the broader idea is accurate 47112
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 20/09/2026An RV poll with a Trump +2 recall, in this economy? 010
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 18/09/2026The Europeans sure seem to think Russia is about to test NATO. 001
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦Patrick De Klotz @patdeklotz.bsky.social · 17/09/2026A big reason impeachment and prosecutions are important is because they are the first step in building our way back. It will not fix things. But is the start of working towards better things. The world has to see us repudiate what we did. 22110
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Might be the best individual poll of the cycle so far for Dem Senate chances. 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Feels like it’s been a minute since we had a Marist poll….need a D+15 truth nuke. 100
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 16/09/2026I take this framing as they got something between D+11 and D+15 on a real LV screen and decided to just go with the RV number and a couple niche screens to soften the blow. 020
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Maybe Paxton grinds out a win because Texas….but I don’t know man. 100
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 15/09/2026The energy market people seem pretty shook. 030
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Remarkable that the caveats on the NYT/Siena D+9 poll are all about how it probably undersells how bad the environment is for the GOP. 010
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 13/09/2026static.klipy.comGroundhog Day: It's 6 O'ClockALT: Groundhog Day: It's 6 O'Clock 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Me when I hear Americans politicians go full anti-tariff. Also…..Blansas?static.klipy.comWolf Of Wall Street: Lets Gooo!ALT: Wolf Of Wall Street: Lets Gooo! 010
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Just saw $6.40 a gallon for diesel….. the average fuel tank size for a new F-250 is 34 gallons…that’s $217 to fill up 💀 020
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 11/09/2026As I get older the thing that sticks with me about 9/11 is just how many stories there are of ordinary Americans doing extraordinary things. 011
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 10/09/2026I’m skeptical…but does feel like the GOP is entering the cool zone. 120
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Quinnipiac has the generic ballot at D+11. poll.qu.edu/poll-release...poll.qu.eduVoters Favor Dems Over GOP By 11 Points For Control Of U.S. House, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump's Handling Of Canada Trade, Iran & Russia - Ukraine War All Below 30% | Quinnipi..."Which political party is most inclined to have your back? While neither gets high marks generally, the Democrats are judged more empathetic when it comes to the concerns of voters," said Quinnipiac U... 010
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Oil was almost $20 a barrel cheaper when this poll went into the field. 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 10/09/2026I’m James Talarico and I approve this message. 010
Reposted by Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Kind of an interesting note from tonight: St. Anselm's final primary poll had Pappas +31, which is exactly the lead right now. They had Pappas +7 over Sununu in the general election That Univ of NH poll that had people all riled up, w/ Sununu winning by 2 only had Pappas winning the primary by 13. 3324
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Anyone ask those Anthropic/OAI internal models about an ambient temp/pressure superconductor or aneutronic fusion? 000
Jim Stalnaker 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jstalnaker1.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Little surprised all we got from the networks today was a survey monkey Trump job approval poll. No generic ballots on Labor Day weekend?static.klipy.comJoe Biden: C'mon, Man!ALT: Joe Biden: C'mon, Man! 000
