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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 4h

When even a right wing slop poll can't find the Dem ahead in Kansas Senate...

Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 7h

- Rural Rs in deep red states not answering polls is worrying - However, we have Trump voters lying to people about not voting for him for the 1st time, and that has potentially lead to R oversamples with pollsters that weight by recall. It was one of the reasons for last year's D overperformance.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 7h

LOL, wut? Is this sarcasm? Dems winning 230+ seats with all-time historically bad faith GOP gerrymandering, flipping the Senate just one cycle later by flipping Trump +13 states, and taking back the majority of Govs for the first time since Obama's 1st term is not a blue wave?

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 7h

How? It correctly called Dems overperforming Harris in all the swing states and was only wrong in the really close PA race.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 8h

There's been a lot of discourse around the potential for a big polling miss in the GOP's favor, but that strikes me as a lot of PTSD talk. Since 2020, polling has been fine with any misses in the GOP's direction being small. I actually "fear" more of a 2025 repeat where pollsters underestimated Dems

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 8h

Not surprised things are so tight in IA Senate, that the lead has swung back-and-forth. OR Gov is doing its typical thing where Dems come home at the very last minute; GOP will win it one day, but I doubt its this cycle. VT Gov being up for grabs is quietly one of the biggest stories of the midterms

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 8h

10.11.2026 U.S Midterms Election Projections - House 🟦 235 🟥 200 - Senate 🟦 53 🟥 47 - Governors 🟦 26 🟥 24 - Analysis Little change since last week. IA Senate went from Tilt D to Tilt R, but OR Gov shifted from Lean R to Lean D after a couple new polls. VT Gov has also started to look competitive

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Montana Democrats should shun Alani Bankhead from ever seeking office under them again. Montana would be in the list of competitive red senate seats this year, were it not for her selfishness.

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Reposted by Luis A. Mendez

Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Watched some of the greatest adaptations of the 'Frankenstein' lore these last few days for spooky season.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Reminder: Biden's margin of defeat in Kansas was lesser than *Obama 2008* in the state, and the state shifted left relative to the nation in 2024. Next to IA, Its the most D leaning of the great plains states. The state coming close or outright flipping blue in this environment makes sense to me.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Fact Check: Mostly True, those that didn't include partisan pollsters especially benefited. The GB was regularly showing a tighter race than Biden's numbers would have you think. I wasn't shocked the GOP underperformed at all. 2024 polling was also *much* better than the 2020 disaster.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

H/T to Ethan C7 of Election Twitter for the primary turnout data, but we now have 3 historically good predictors of midterm environments (Gallup PID + primary turnout + special elections) pointing to a D+10-13 year...polls are averaging around D+7-9. ~1 month to go.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Amazing how much has changed in the last 2 years. GOP was throwing parties and declaring a new era of cultural and political dominance over a 1.5 pt race where they way underperformed the fundamentals. Maybe the media and the corporations should stop bowing down to them? Washed.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Gallup's PID survey is one of the most respected and predictive surveys in the polling world. It showed a close environment before the 2024 and 2022 elections. It showed a Dem edge in 2020 and 2018...It is D+11 going into 2026. Largest lead for Dems since Obama came into office with a ~68% rating.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I'd like to see more polling for that race but the latest poll had it at R+1. Typically Dems tend to underperform OR Gov and win with a lot of late deciders, so we'll see.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Some of the most interesting changes since last week: Nebraska shifted from close D to close R, while Kansas is now tilting towards D. And yeah, Idaho and South Dakota seem competitive, though I want more higher quality polling there. Overall, even a typical poll miss can only cushion Rs so much.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

10.04.2026 U.S Midterms Election Projections - House 🟦 235 🟥 200 - Senate 🟦 54 🟥 46 - Governors 🟦 25 🟥 25 - Analysis Not much change since last week, but I fixed a data entry error with AZ Gov which accidently had it Likely R when its actually in the Likely D column according to the model.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Had a really fun time at Howl-O-Scream at Busch Gardens with the twin bro tonight. The Anaconda house was easily the best one, followed closely by the Mars Alien house.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Saturday Night Plans, Howl-O-Scream at Busch Gardens

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

You can now read a full-length written review from me on what may be the most divisive and debated-about film of the year, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's #DiggerMovie. Spoiler: I *really* dug it. 🔗 www.mendezmoviereport.com/p/digger

mendezmoviereport.com

Film Review: Digger

A Man. A Plan. A Meltdown.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina, and South Dakota Senate polling this cycle

static.klipy.com

Hello There

ALT: Hello There

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Harvard's polls are run by Mark Penn, a Trump fan whose polls are regularly very biased towards the GOP. And even in his latest polling they find voters now pine for the days of Biden's economy. The economy that (alongside his age) gobbled up and destroyed his presidency. Massive vibe shift.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Could be a coincidence given the convention happened around Labor Day, which is when most voters basically start making up their minds + when pollsters shift to LV models, but I have noticed the bottom seem to start falling beneath the GOP after their Dallas convention.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The Schmitt gaffe was pure cinema. Schmitt looking on like he just pulled a Perry Mason. Kennedy pointing to the sign like " gotcha!". Senator Stepford Wife, I mean Britt, looking on as she realized what a bunch of dumbasses they look like. Klob mocking Schmitt (and she was still nicer than I'd be).

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Two high quality pollsters showing Dems up 15 and 16 in the Generic Ballot this morning.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

To give folks the picture on what scale we're talking here. If polls are right on about D+8 that's Dems at 230+ seats in the House and probably barely flipping the Senate. D+12 (which primary turnout hints at) would mean 250+ Dem House seats are in play and 54-56 D Senate seats.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

D+12 is what the historically non-polling indicators like primary turnout point to. The numbers I'm seeing in polling is hinting at more D+8 which would still produce a big blue year. D+12 would be euphoric type of stuff. Like certain red southern states are suddenly Tossups euphoric.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Too many of you don't see the vision of the blue tsunami. Dooming about good polls. Dooming about good forecasts. Dooming about past (minor) polling misses. The time to doom was 2 years ago, this is a whole other environment.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I wouldn't be surprised if polls shift towards Dems in the Gov race in the final weeks. That's how OR Gov has played out in every midterm cycle since 2010.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I mean, it ain't impossible. My model says a significant polling miss and they could still *barely* hold on to it, but I am very skeptical a polling miss in favor of Rs will be big enough. Polling since 2020 has been good-to-great, and midterm electorates now favor Dems.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I'll be updating this every Sunday morning, exclusively on here. But Trump has a 37% approval rating right now in my average. That is worse than any President has had coming into a midterm since Dubya in 2006, if not since Truman in 1950. You do the math. Its that simple.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

09.27.2026 U.S Midterms Election Projections - House 🟦 235 🟥 200 - Senate 🟦 54 🟥 46 - Governors 🟥 26 🟦 24 - Analysis Took out and dusted off the old prediction model that has always given me a fair view of the election cycle, ran the numbers, and with ~1 month to go a blue wave is likely.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

People can't stop making the mistake to assume coalitions will remain the same and battleground maps are static. In 2024 barely anyone paid attention to the fact swing states and a few red states shifted left relative to the nation. The seeds of a wave were there if things went south for the GOP.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Dusted off my old election forecast model and fed it this cycle's numbers. I'll publish it exclusively on here, and begin updating it regularly starting this Sunday morning. But spoiler alert...

static.klipy.com

Snoopy Surfing in Peanuts

ALT: Snoopy Surfing in Peanuts

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The thing about Trump is that he has underperformed electorally, but the two things keeping him treading were his Economic approvals and anti war image. Those are completely gone now. Its 2020 with his base fractured and that lame duck smell that even haunts more popular Presidents by year 6.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

That NH VT Gov poll is the Tsar bomb of truth nukes. I doubt Scott loses but its going to be the closest race he's ever had as Gov since 2016.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Me pulling up to the TV on Election Night

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Glad I'm not alone in rooting this on. Country has shown time and time again that it doesn't learn until the pain of touching the hot stove sets in. Voters deserve to pay the consequences for their decision two years ago.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

- Remember polling post-2020 has actually been pretty damn good. - The Dems got the supervoters in the divorce, they are the one group (plus a few suburbs in certain metro areas) that actually shifted left from 2016 to 2024. - Trump is more unpopular than he's ever been, even than after Jan 6th.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The Generic Ballot lead for Democrats just keeps getting larger. Republicans in swing states/seats are freaking out and tossing Trump under the bus on Iran. Could polling be off? Of course it could. But even a moderate poll miss would still point to a pretty decent blue night in November.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

For my money, Lilly-Rose Depp gave a better performance than all but two of the lead actress nominees for 2024 (including the winner). Robbed of recognition.

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Luis A. Mendez @mendezmovierpt.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Centrist Dems treating Trump's 1.5 pt win like it was a Reagan 84 type landslide was such a bizzare way to start Trump 2.0. Dude started polling in the negative territory as quickly as February.

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