Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 14/05/2026 Dave Wittenburg, one of the most accomplished Social Security disability researchers over the past several decades, is responsible for the website in his new capacity as an independent consultant. Congratulations on setting this up! 020
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 14/05/2026For anyone who is following trends in the SSDI and SSI programs, we have a great new resource: wittenburgconsulting.com/ssa-data-hub The website pulls data from a host of SSA sites, shows trends and provide links to the original SSA data site. Check it out!wittenburgconsulting.comSocial Security Disability Data HubMaking public SSA disability data easier to find, read, and use. 221
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/04/2026Proposals to reduce benefits for high earners are appropriate. I have joined colleagues at Brookings to propose a solvency plan with several such tough measures. However, proposals that compound gradually for decades or indefinitely risk fundamentally changing the program over the long term. 031
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/04/2026With no one or virtually no one receiving benefits at these levels all the savings from this proposal depend upon slowing or stopping the growth of the maximum benefit. Under the most aggressive approaches, the maximum benefit would eventually be cut in half and reach half of beneficiaries. 130
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/04/2026The proposed cap depends on when a worker starts benefits with caps of $35K, $50K and $62K for those who retire at age 62, 67, and 70. However, today even a person with 35 years of earnings at the taxable maximum is not receiving a $50K benefit at age 67 according to SSA. 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/04/2026A new proposal from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) would create caps on the maximum Social Security benefit, raising serious issues. In this short piece I examine the proposal. www.urban.org/urban-wire/s...urban.orgSocial Security Needs Reform, but Capping Benefits and Indexing to Inflation Could Do More Harm Than GoodCombining dollar cutoffs with indexing changes fundamentally alters the structure and philosophy that have guided the Social Security program for the past 90… 153
Reposted by Jack SmalliganNatalie Alms @almsnatalie.bsky.social · 04/03/2026Accessing disability benefits at the Social Security Administration has gotten more difficult since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term, according to new qualitative research. www.nextgov.com/digital-gove...nextgov.comAccessing Social Security disability benefits became harder in 2025, researchers findChanges like the push to online servicing and introduction of AI on SSA phone lines made it difficult for certain recipients to access the agency. 05128
Reposted by Jack SmalliganBobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 15/10/2025Trump and Vought are now breaking both sides of spending law. They’re illegally not spending where the law requires them to spend, and they’re illegally spending where they don’t have the money to spend. What we have is an appropriations king. Spending “deals” are meaningless under that setup. 7041731322
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 05/10/2025This paper provides more context: www.urban.org/research/pub... 2/2urban.orgUpdating Social Security DisabilityThe Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a proposed rule that could significantly reshape how disability eligibility is determined for two major… 082
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 05/10/2025The Wa Post has issued an important story on an upcoming major SSA disability regulation that would especially affect older disabled workers: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 1/2washingtonpost.comTrump plan would limit disability benefits for older AmericansTrump administration officials are considering eliminating age as a factor in deciding whether someone is capable of working. 11511
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20259/ Policymakers, advocates, and researchers should pay close attention. The rule is likely to have profound policy and human consequences and could reshape disability policy for years to come. 041
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20258/ Many denied older workers may turn to early retirement benefits—cutting lifetime retirement income by up to 30%. 120
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20257/ In a hypothetical 10% cut scenario, 📉 500,000 people could lose access by the end of 10 years, as well as 80,000 widows and children and another 250,000 who lose eligibility for part of the period. $82B in reduced benefits and ripple effects on Medicare & Medicaid 120
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20256/ The impact could be huge: 📉 Up to 20% fewer SSDI applicants could qualify and up to 30% fewer older workers could qualify 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20255/ SSA is also reconsidering how age, education, and work experience factor into disability decisions. This could disproportionately impact older workers. 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20254/ BUT implementation matters. SSA must decide how to interpret ORS data—like whether enough jobs exist at certain skill levels. Policy direction on this will determine if people gain or lose eligibility. 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20253/ SSA plans to replace the Dictionary of Occupational Titles with the Occupational Requirements Survey from BLS. This modernizes the data and has bipartisan support. 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20252/ The rule has 3 major components: 🔹 Replacing outdated job data 🔹 Implementing new occupational data 🔹 Changing how age (and other factors) affect eligibility. 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/20251/ SSA’s proposed rule could reduce disability benefit eligibility for hundreds of thousands of Americans—especially older workers. This makes it a Social Security retirement issue too. 131
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 18/09/2025🧵 Big changes may be coming to disability benefits. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a rule that could reshape how eligibility is determined for SSDI and SSI. Here’s what you need to know—and why it matters. www.urban.org/research/pub... 11513
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 13/09/2025SSA needs to study these developments and analyze claim decisions. The changes may well be explainable but SSA has yet to acknowledge the issue. And SSA is operating with far fewer staff who have responsibility to analyze and improve the programs. 030
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 13/09/20253rd, Disability adjudicators are more productive, as expected. SSA experienced very high turnover among adjudicators after the pandemic. SSA estimated a temporary 20% drop in productivity as new staff are trained. This underscores the importance of retaining government staff. 160
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 13/09/20252nd, SSA is denying more initial claims. Even as initial decisions have increased by 159,000 for the fiscal year the number of approved claims is flat at about 812,000 with the average approval rate dropping from 38.3% to 36.0%. 130
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 13/09/20251st, New applications for disability benefits are down by 7% this fiscal year (-163,000). While not unusual, this development is concerning if it is in response to very long waits for eligibility decisions and other factors discouraging claims. 120
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 13/09/2025The Administration has taken credit for a substantial drop in the Social Security disability claims backlog. In this piece I explore the concerning factors behind this drop, including fewer new applications and more denials. www.urban.org/urban-wire/s...urban.orgThe SSA Says It’s Reduced the Disability Claims Backlog. Fewer New Claims and a Higher Denial Rate Could Be Driving the ReductionTo better understand what’s driving a decrease in claims and increase in denials, the Social Security Administration could invest more in the research and st… 55237
Reposted by Jack SmalliganBobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 06/09/2025My new op-ed! “The pocket rescission is just a beacon meant to draw our attention. Trump wants us to focus on the foreign aid impoundments — a shiny object he’s illegally deleting via a pocket rescission — so that we forget about the quiet impoundments of cancer research and preschool funding.”msnbc.comWhy a judge shut down Trump's latest budget stuntA president can’t sign something into law and then immediately ignore parts of it. But that’s exactly what Trump is doing. 39434
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 15/08/2025See Kathleen Romig's great thread on yesterday's WH Social Security press release. 000
Reposted by Jack SmalliganBrendan Duke @brendanvduke.bsky.social · 18/06/2025People have been debating and worried about the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall for decades. It's widely seen as an enormous fiscal challenge. One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts' permanent cost is actually *larger* than the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall. 22917
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 05/06/2025Janet was at Treasury and I was at OMB when the Bush Administration tested this policy. The evaluation of the test showed high proportions of eligibles were deterred from applying and high administrative costs for IRS. Including this policy in reconciliation is a travesty. 061
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 05/06/2025The House reconciliation bill includes a provision that could keep many thousands of individuals from receiving EITC. This little noticed provision requires IRS to precertify millions of individuals for EITC. See this piece from Janet Holtzblatt. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/one-b...taxpolicycenter.orgOne Big Beautiful Bill Act’s EITC Precertification Requirement Could Delay RefundsWith precertification, many eligible taxpayers would have to wait longer for their EITC, causing financial hardships in the meantime--if they get it all. 23111
Reposted by Jack SmalliganBobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 03/06/2025The rescissions request is out. This is very real. As with reconciliation, this is filibuster-proof, meaning that there is no Senate cloture vote, and Republicans can pass it even with all Dems opposed. The White House is calling to cut global health programs, condemning people to die. 922596
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 23/05/2025Claiming Social Security benefits earlier than planned can have long-term implications for a retired worker’s retirement security, as well as their spouse, widow, or children. Benefit levels are adjusted based on when a beneficiary chooses to begin receiving benefits. 060
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 23/05/2025Many people will have good reasons to claim Social Security benefits at the earliest eligibility age. The right time to claim benefits is based on many individual factors and should be considered carefully. 150
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 23/05/2025Changes to customer service and use of administrative data by DOGE staff have likely led to fear and confusion among applicants and beneficiaries. Data shows calls and visits to SSA field offices have surged in addition to retirement claims. 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 23/05/2025The crisis at SSA since January 20 is impacting people. Individual claims for retirement benefits are up 13 percent compared with this time last year, an increase of more than 276,000 claims. In this piece Chantel Boyens and I examine the development. 1/4 www.urban.org/urban-wire/m...urban.orgMore Americans Are Filing for Retirement Benefits Earlier—Their Long-Term Retirement Security Could Suffer as a ResultClaiming Social Security early reduces a person’s monthly benefit and can threaten their and their families’ economic security in the long term. 410024
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/05/2025What remains to be seen is the severity of impact of this funding level on an already historically high backlog of disability claims, as well as any impacts on service through SSA’s 800 number and in field offices. 5/5 050
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/05/2025The small nominal increase proposed for SSA is devoted almost entirely to program integrity work, which is walled off and cannot be used for customer service. 4/5 150
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/05/2025As of the end of March, SSA had 1.4M individuals awaiting either an initial disability benefit decision or response to an initial appeal. And pending levels for retirement claims have reached “extremely high levels” according to SSA’s own staff. 3/5 140
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/05/2025This inadequate funding will lead to reduced customer service as explained in an earlier post. The budget asserts improvements in service without supporting substance. 2/5 www.urban.org/urban-wire/d...urban.orgDownsizing Staff Will Make It Harder to Receive Social Security PaymentsWith the Social Security Administration already experiencing staff shortages, any further reductions in workforce will exacerbate claims backlogs and increase wait times. 151
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 02/05/2025The FY 2026 President’s Budget level for the Social Security Administration (SSA) represents a second year of essentially flat funding for SSA’s core operations, even as costs and rates of claiming increase, making the proposed level a cut in real terms. 1/5 2123
Reposted by Jack SmalliganBobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 29/04/2025he's drawing a line! he's okay with the largest medicaid cuts in history, but not the super duper largest medicaid cuts in history 😤 46819
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 29/04/2025Rich Johnson and Jon Schwabish estimate that a disruption in Social Security benefits could leave 6 million beneficiaries unable to cover their basic monthly living expenses, including rent, mortgage payments, groceries and health care, without taking on new debt. 1147
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 29/04/2025Former Social Security Administration leaders have warned that staffing reductions and computer outages could make SSA more vulnerable to a short interruption in benefits. Urban Institute experts modeled this scenario: www.urban.org/urban-wire/d...urban.orgDisruptions to Social Security Checks Would Leave 6 Million Beneficiaries Unable to Make Ends MeetStaffing cuts at the Social Security Administration after years of underfunding could disrupt the delivery of Social Security benefit checks, which would expose millions of Americans to financial hard... 720370
Reposted by Jack SmalliganBobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 28/04/2025in total, the republican judiciary bill would give $73 billion to ICE over 5 years - a 140% increase annual increase in ICE funding above its current level of $10.5 per year $9 billion for ICE agents, $14.4 billion for deportations, $45 billion for detention facilities, $5 billion for other stuff 98137
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Chantel Boyens and I are the Principal Investigators for the Academy’s AI report. The Task Force's principles and guardrails provide SSA with guidance on how to develop AI in critical areas where the rights of beneficiaries and applicants are most at risk. 010
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 17/04/2025The National Academy of Social Insurance’s Task Force on AI, Emerging Tech and Disability Benefits has released its Phase One Report. With so much focus on using AI at the Social Security Administration this report is very timely. 1/2 www.nasi.org/pressrelease...nasi.orgNational Academy Task Force on AI, Emerging Tech & Disability Benefits Releases First Report -National Academy Task Force on AI, Emerging Tech & Disability Benefits Releases First Report 110
Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 15/04/2025Devin O’Connor and Sam Berger examine the very troubling implications of having the Trump Administration falsely add living persons as dead to a Social Security Administration database. www.cbpp.org/blog/trump-a...cbpp.orgTrump and DOGE Claim Power to Falsely List Living Persons as Dead in Social Security Records | Center on Budget and Policy PrioritiesThe Trump Administration has made a shocking claim: that it can declare living people dead to cut off their access to government benefits and the broader U.S. financial system. According to reporting.... 032