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Jon Minton

@jonminton.bsky.social

264 followers 598 following 168 posts

Senior Statistician. Eclectic public and population health background. Very reluctant Twitter refugee. Distant memories of academia. “Evidence informed contrarian”

Posts Replies Media

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Which version of my new company’s landing page is more compelling? Why? See options (Original, Alt A and Alt B), vote, and offer feedback at ktandb.co.uk

Knowledge Tree and Butterfly

Bridging analytical knowledge with technical know-how. Teaching, training and guiding analytical professionals and software developers across the divide that agentic AI just made obsolete.

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

More info and to sign up: ktandb.co.uk/lightning

Writing like Lightning — Knowledge Tree and Butterfly

An opinionated system and masterclass for academic, scientific and creative nonfiction writing, inspired by the slip box, quietly powered by AI agents.

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Writing like lightning. My transformative new system for better nonfiction writing, including scientific publication, inspired by slip boxes, quietly supported by AI agents. Link below to sign up for more info.

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Yesterday, I founded a company: ktandb.co.uk It helps analytical workers learn the technical know-how to supercharge their work with Agentic AI. And helps developers develop analytical knowledge too. Free 20 min consultations. Links above. Share widely!

Knowledge Tree and Butterfly

Bridging analytical knowledge with technical know-how. Teaching, training and guiding analytical professionals and software developers across the divide that agentic AI just made obsolete.

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Trying too hard not to be accused of being an AI? A senior academic with dyslexia now half jokingly said it’s now their superpower!

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Additionally, for the first year or so, the heuristic was that contracting COVID conferred two years worth of mortality hazard per year, a doubling of age-sex specific hazard. (See Spiegelhalter in BMJ)

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Once a person has reached a certain age, say 80, they can’t die at a younger age. So, we need to use conditional life expectancy, given the age they’ve already reached, rather than unconditional life expectancy (implicitly from birth)

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

New blog: digital dogs in hats: bridging the senseworld/streamworld divide: jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - Digital Dogs in Hats

On assuming Agency and Intentionality in AIs without anthropomorphising them

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Reposted by Jon Minton

🚲 @bicycle.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

they’re turning the fonts gay

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic that can be magically fixed by turning off and on again

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Hamlet?

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

I designed a story. (Origin story to the story to follow) jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - The Guano Guild

Claude Opus 4.6

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

New blog post: “When Tech incrementalism fails: a steam-powered parable” jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - When Tech Incrementalism Fails

A Steam-powered Parable

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos... New (quickish) blog post: I've been using Claude for digital archeology: It found a really simple social agent-based model I wrote in R almost 20 years ago and rebuilt an interactive version of it in Python.

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - The Benefits of Sharing: From a 2007 R Script to an Interactive Simulation

How local sharing and state coordination reduce destitution — an agent-based demonstration

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Nominative determinism

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

My hand drawn attempt to explain the difference between the standard chatbot style AIs most people are familiar with, and agentic AI (AAI) jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos... Adding ‘Machine’ alongside chat window to the ways Human and Bot can work together is underrated, a game changer.

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Feedback forms should be active, even linked to github accounts if you have one. These will then be added to github issues logs, processed, and very likely implemented!

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

This is broadly how I think about recipes and cooking: at the start there's a list of ingredients; at the end there's a finished dish; and in between there are various processes happening that transform and combine the ingredients in various ways: mashing, frying, baking etc

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Another Claudic implementation of an idea I've been playing around with for years: Flow Kitchen jonminton.github.io/recipes-as-mus… (Formerly 'recipes as music')

jonminton.github.io

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

They’re now ‘an’ opposition party

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Reposted by Jon Minton

Gerry McCartney @gerrymccartney1.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

New @sgsss.bsky.social funded #PhD opportunity to undertake an #ethnography at #galgael in Glasgow with @giopicker.bsky.social and myself. This is a fully funded #Scholarship / #Studentship, which includes a stipend, fees and research expenses. Closes 24th March. www.sgsss.ac.uk/studentship/...

Mirroring GalGael: An Ethnography of Repair and Belonging - Scottish Graduate School of Social Science

Repair can be understood as a civic practice and an essential form of care, particularly in the face of ecological crises and the need to move towards a circular economy. Most research on repair tends...

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Eg CARs which do some accounting for ‘neighbourliness’ of observations. I think Girosi and King moved in that direction by talking about Bayesian smoothers or similar, and the CBD effectively brings something like this through the predictor terms used

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

On the broader sentiment of the original post. I think Andy tends to lean into APC as something very flawed but potentially amenable to some fixes. My position’s that it’s often better to start from thinking of the Lexis surface as a real as-if-spatial surface, and using spatial modelling approaches

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Similarly Italian data has a pronounced decades waffle like pattern in single year lexis surfaces, likely due to heavy correction of population counts with each census. Again no signals in this 1948 cohort pattern of it being an artefact

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

We couldn’t find an artefactual explanation. Examples of which include: discontinuities at age 80/90 or so, as this is when the methods in HMD shift and reported raw data often pools into a single age; period only changes, as when a country’s methods change. This was multiple countries, and cohort

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

And the importance of positive cohort effects in the UK context was argued by Willets in (I think) the 2000s or maybe earlier

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

On the original point it’s worth noting UK actuaries’ version of Lee-Carter (Cairns-Blake-Dowd) already includes terms for cohort effects. (Not a direct ancestor but close enough)

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Thanks, the 1948 signal is intriguing. With this dy/dt display a ‘shock’ is red followed by blue (vertical for period; diagonal for cohort); but with this cohort it’s blue alone. Presence in multiple countries suggests it’s broader than just the NHS

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

Since its release on Thursday, I’ve been putting Opus 4.6 through its paces. No specific research task, evidence synthesis or review, or even philosophical conversation seems to challenge it, not even remotely. So instead, I’m vibe coding a game! jonminton.github.io/boomer/

jonminton.github.io

BOOMER — 1v1 Arena Shooter

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

How I now write my blog (with reMarkable and Claude): jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos... Very meta. Hopefully specific and detailed enough to show this is a workable pattern for producing online content. #claude #vscode #Remarkable #writing #cats

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - How I Now Write My Blog

With reMarkable and Claude Code

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

The Dilbert Future in retrospect jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/posts… #dilbert #ScottAdams #predictions

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

I asked an Agentic AI to develop a course on how to understand and use Agentic AI. This is what it came up with: jonminton.github.io/working-with... It has a core section, then five parallel tracks for different kinds of knowledge worker. Suggestions and feedback very welcome!

jonminton.github.io

Working With AI: A Practical Course

Reposted by Jon Minton

Dr Lucinda Hiam @lucindahiam.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

📄 New paper out in Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine with @robaldridge.bsky.social, Rachel Burns, and analysis led by @jonminton.bsky.social ❓How does mortality compare by country/region of birth in England & Wales, 2007–2021? doi.org/10.1177/0141... 🧵⬇️

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

New AI cowriting experiment. Are my blog posts better if I don’t write them?! jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - David Sconce and the benevolence of evil?

Some discomforting thoughts on The Mortician

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

I’ve done a cliche! Here’s a Gemini produced infographic of my end of year blog post: jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 02/01/2026

New blog post. A reflection on 2025, and why it might be the last year we think “nothing’s changed”: jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - 2025: The Last Year Most Knowledge Workers will be Human

On professional existential crises, Silica Sapiens, and the end of Nothing Changes

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

I thought this was about whale oil!

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

New experimental stats website (Alpha stage). Interactive tutorials for helping understand GLMs: jonminton.github.io/glm-dashboar... Please explore and make use of the bug and feature request options!

jonminton.github.io

GLM Tutorials: Matching Models to Data

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 06/12/2025

New blog post: Claude Sonnet 4.5 reflects on reading and fact-checking the rest of my blog! (About 200k words!) jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - Claude Adds Footnotes: A Reflection

What happens when an AI systematically fact-checks 128 blog posts

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

New blog post: WiredClothMother jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - WiredClothMother

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

I wrote an essay comparing AI to the Maxim gun of the 19th century, then asked four LLMs to produce short ‘rights of reply’: jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos...

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - The Analytical Maxim Gun

Some thoughts about integrated AI and the future of knowledge

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Given recent announcements of tougher asylum policies in the UK, I asked Claude AI to track down and summarise evidence on how much of an influence policy is likely to have on asylum claims as compared with other factors: claude.ai/share/188b49... (tl;dr: probably not much)

Safe third countries and asylum motivation

Shared via Claude, an AI assistant from Anthropic

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

I’m now being overly sycophantic to Claude by suggesting its single letter substitution is actually a really clever shorthand for describing Vince Gilligan’s new TV show #pluribus

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

As a stats in-joke I thought redesigning the “Breaking Bad” titles to say “Breaking Blind” would be fun, so I asked Claude to have a go at this. It helpfully pointed out that “Bl” isn’t a real element, but decided that “Bk” must be good enough as it’s just 1 letter away.

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

As a stats in-joke I thought redesigning the “Breaking Bad” titles to say “Breaking Blind” would be, so I asked Claude to have a go at this. It helpfully pointed out that “Bl” isn’t a real element, but decided that “Bk” must be good enough as it’s just 1 letter away.

Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

As a stats in-joke I thought redesigning the “Breaking Bad” titles to say “Breaking Blind” would be, so I asked Claude to have a go at this. It helpfully pointed out that “Bl” isn’t a real element, but decided that “Bk” must be good enough as it’s just 1 letter away.

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Good comparison. Except in the Jasmine arc only the most traumatised cynic (Conor) supported the plan, whereas in Pluribus only one (maybe two) of the dozen or so people with free will/autonomy seems to think it’s a bad idea.

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Two animated guides for understanding some key concepts in statistical inference: jonminton.github.io/jon-blog/pos... (Or at least for becoming curious enough about these concepts to want to learn more…)

jonminton.github.io

Jon Minton’s Blog - Point estimates, Confidence Intervals and P-Values

Two simple statistical animations co-produced with Claude

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Jon Minton @jonminton.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

If it’s like Among Us, Werewolf, etc, I’m guessing almost everyone is little better than chance in their guesses - because lying and lie-detecting were stuck in an evolutionary arms race for millions of years - but comes up with a lot of reasonable sounding explanations for their decisions?

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Reposted by Jon Minton

Hadley Wickham @hadley.nz · 06/11/2025

pkgdown 2.2.0 now out — tidyverse.org/blog/2025/11.... Main feature is new build_llm_docs() which makes your websites easier to understand by LLMs. (Which you can easily turn off if desired) #rstats

The latest version of pkgdown automatically builds markdown files that make it easy for LLMs to use your website.