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Behind pace (net ≤ −4) Jones: −5, the week's biggest fall: -1 → −5 as wk4 landed. 4.99 YPA, 40% success, 4 INTs. Baker: −5, 34.9% success, 11.9% sack rate (worst in the set). Herbert: -4, 54.2% comp, 4.6% INT, 9.2% sack. Then Hurts, Rodgers, Willis at −3.

Standouts (ahead of pace, net ≥ +4) Purdy: clear leader at +7. 69.9% comp, 8.91 YPA, 60.2% success, 9.7% TD rate, and 0 sacks Goff: +6, 64.5% comp, 9 TD / 0 INT, improved +2 in wk4 Lamar: +6, 8.77 YPA, 66% comp, plus 40 rush yds Mahomes and Dak: +5, (66.9% comp, 3.8% sack), both solid and steady

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Baseline ‘21–25, same wk1-4 window each year): correlated early against full 2026: 26 QBs w/ 100+ pass attempts Wk1-4 was strong for efficiency Early -> full r Sack rate: 0.85 Rush YPC: 0.84 YPA: 0.78 Success rate: 0.78 Rush yards: 0.76 Comp %: 0.69 TD rate: 0.69 INT rate: 0.56 Pass att: 0.22

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TEs are hard to trust, but… Kincaid 14.2 YPT on 19 targets, 3 top-quartile metrics Kittle (22t, 11.1 YPT, 4 TD / 18% TD rate) Kelce (22t, 11.2, 3 top-Q) McBride (46t, 5.26) and Likely (35t, 5.43) are the most-targeted TEs but sit in the bottom quartile on YPT 3/3

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Trust (high volume + top band): WR: JSN (42t, 11.5 YPT, 6 TD, 4 top-Q) Flowers (22t, 16.0 YPT, 82% CR) London (25t, 14.8) Evans (24t, 12.2, 3 TD) Coleman (17t, 13.4) 👀 RB: Walker (87c, 6.17 YPC, 4 top-Q) Cook (70c, 6.01) Bijan (85c, 5.81, 4 top-Q) Kyren (54c, 5.44) Chuba (62c, 4.94, 3 top-Q) 2/3

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How predictive is the early window? 2021-25, wk1-4 → full season - WR (n=369): YPT r=0.65, catch rate r=0.67, success r=0.62, TD r=0.57 - TE (n=208): YPT r=0.60, catch rate r=0.63, success r=0.62, TD r=0.51 - RB (n=256): YPC r=0.66, success r=0.69, TD r=0.60 CR/SR and YPT/YPC best signal. 1/3

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Run/pass splits for opponents vs each team

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Week 4 top 2 receivers and rushers per team by opportunity

J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In Ekeler’s first game back, he won on efficiency, but JCM got the volume. Small sample size, but something to keep an eye on.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This season in a nutshell.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Points given up to opposing RBs split by team and whether they came in the air or on the ground. Knowing the difference in where they come from can be important. Per game numbers using 2026 games played so far

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Looking forward to Mason’s return, but hope Jones holds up.

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Zac Reed @tacitassassin13.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

When @fftommyb.bsky.social sits down to record an episode of The Margins, he & his guest often weave tight short-stories that are packed with information. Last night, we wrote a novel. It’s the longest Margins episode… but sometimes, the story is more important… podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

podcasts.apple.com

Episode 15: The Stories We Tell Ourselves

Podcast Episode · The Margins · October 3 · 1h 54m

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Want to know how different rules affect your leagues? There’s a new tool live on OTCFFB and here’s a little article about each of the most common rules. otcffb.com/content/tool...

otcffb.com

Scoring Matters

How changes in scoring settings affect your leagues and how you can adjust to take advantage

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Vikings give up explosives and Douglas is looking unlikely to suit up, so I’d go Bell but feel like the floor is low… I think Moore plays though

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

And lastly, the underachieving players. Lagging behind their 2025 baseline

J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Here are the top 10 receivers and rushers compared to their average last season

J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

2026 vs 2025 Players vs their yards per target/carry averages from last year As usual, green is good, red shows underperforming in comparison.

3 weeks in, the season starts to take shape. Some metrics are more predictive than others. Using 2021-2025, I looked at the weeks 1-3 correlation with full season. Welcome back to the top right of the chart, Mahomes.

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Early season production for RB/WR/TE Top and bottom

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Yards per carry vs success rate

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3 weeks into 2026 WR/TE Yards per target vs catch rate

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Run/Pass Splits vs each team defense through 3 weeks

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Week 3 top receivers and rushers per team

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I’m old enough to remember Kubiak saying that he was “expecting to have all our guys ready” the day after Bowers had surgery.

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Tommy Blair @fftommyb.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Exciting announcement! On October 13th at 8:30pm Eastern I'll be hosting a panel of the sharpest minds in FF for a livestream discussion on the State of Dynasty in 2026. Featuring: Scott Connor, @tacitassassin13.bsky.social, @petedavidsonny.bsky.social, @koopatroopa8.bsky.social

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

2026 Run/Pass Funnels are starting to emerge

J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I’ve been saying this. He’s been actively bad in the receiving game. His superpower is volume and TDs. Without the TDs, there’s not enough there.

J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Week 2 Top 2 targets and rusher per team

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Tommy Blair @fftommyb.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Week Two NB10 scores (season to date):

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

I prefer HoldSwapDrop.com

Ran into some issues with Reddit bots, so my AMA is apparently not happening today. Sorry folks

100% It’s the Trevor Etienne, Dylan Laube, Will Shipley and Ty Johnsons. Those guys may have a usable week, but they’re hard to predict and their access to the elevator is limited.

Yes to your first reply and to this one. You nailed what I was getting at. The 3rd down only guy doesn’t matter. They need the full pass catching volume. Plenty of passes happen on the other downs

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Don't make too much of the 3rd down pass catching RBs. It's just not enough volume to plan on. 2021-25, Steelers led the league with 1.8 RB targets/gm on 3rd down out of 9.5 3rd down passes/gm. That means best case scenario, hoping for 2 passes in the role, which accounted for 1/4 of RB targets.

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How could I forget the fantasy gym teacher corollary?

I think that's Zac volunteering to help

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Kickers are kicking further, but making them at the same rates. Average FGs went from 37.7yds (2016) to 40.5 (2025). Rate of 50+yds went from 15% to 24%. Make/Block rates have remained fairly flat. Curious if older kicks would've been good from longer, but we understand ranges better now.

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The Margins is only on episode 14, but it’s pretty good.

He visited the Ravens, but I want to see Skyler Bell get some play. He’s been inactive.