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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

Shorter aDot in 2026 compared with 2025: Bourne −5.10 (11.3→6.2, deep 48%→14%) Watson −4.74 (17.8→13.0, deep 64%→41%) Boutte −4.26 Wan'Dale Robinson −4.00 (deep 38%→15%) Brian Thomas Jr −2.64 Flowers −2.15 Juwan Johnson −1.99 McBride −1.73 (146→52t, deep 29%→12%) Sutton −1.66 Loveland −1.65

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

2025 vs 2026 so far, aDot is shifting for players as they take on new roles. Targeted Deeper: Malik Washington +6.88 (9.2→16.1, deep 25%→54%) Doubs +4.09 Adams +4.07 (12.7→16.7, 38t, deep 54%→68%) Metcalf +3.69 Bowers +3.42 (7.7→11.1, deep 26%→53%) Downs +3.19 Jefferson +3.03 Otton +3.02

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Watch-list (mixed profile): Herbert is the biggest concern with net +2 on volume, but 53.1% comp + 10.6% sack (both bottom-quartile) and 7 INT on 160 att. Baker (11.9% sack, worst in cohort, 34.9% SR) Hurts (53.3% comp, 5.59 YPA) Shough (219 att, most in cohort, 5.93 YPA) Cousins (12 TD, 4 INT)

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Fade the bottom band (net -3): Jones (-4): 5.52 YPA, 3 TD / 4 INT Winston (-4): 5.59 YPA, 52.8% comp, 7.6% sack Rodgers (-3): 6.20 YPA, 55.3% comp Nix (-3) and Ward (-3): both ~5.5 YPA, ~40% SR, low TD output.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Trust the top band (net ≥ +3): Lamar (+5): 9.39 YPA, 56.3% SR, 66% comp, 1 INT on 103 att Lawrence (+5): 7.62 YPA, 10 TD / 3 INT, 50% SR. Purdy (+3): 8.19 YPA, 13 TD, 2.1% sack (lowest in cohort) Allen (+3): 7.99 YPA, plus 5 rush TD Maye (+3): 7.53 YPA, 8 TD, but 7 INT (bottom-quartile INT rate)

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Looking at ‘21-25, weeks 1-5 predictiveness by stat for the full-season. Early success rate, YPA, and sack rate are the most reliable, while INT is too much noise. For 2026, 29 QBs meet a 100+ attempt threshold. Creating some bands based on the metrics, we can start to see who to trust/watch/fade.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Momentum shift for QBs in week 5 Love and Maye took a big leap while Penix, Purdy, Watson, Shough regressed quite a bit.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Who does what against each defense, weeks 1-5

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

RB Ahead Of Their 2025 Pace Irving +1.87 (3.40 → 5.27 YPC, 77c) Walker +1.53 (4.65 → 6.17, 87c, 4 TD) Warren +1.32 (4.54 → 5.86, 70c) Hubbard +1.15 Barkley +1.00 Bijan +0.55 on 102 carries Behind Achane -1.94 (5.67 → 3.74) RIP Montgomery -1.85 (4.50 → 2.65) Dobbins -1.47 Hall -1.19 Henderson -1.18

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

WR/TE Behind Their 2025 Pace Diggs -4.5 (9.93 → 5.48) Sutton -4.0 (8.14 → 4.16) Loveland -3.9 Kraft -3.8 Burden -3.3

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

2026 vs 2025 Yards Per Target WR/TE: ahead of own pace Evans +5.7 (5.94 → 11.60 YPT, 35t) 25.4% target share London +5.4 (8.13 → 13.56, 36t) Kelce +3.4 (7.81 → 11.18, 22t) Adams +3.3 (6.92 → 10.26, 38t) down from +6.7 at wks 1-3 Jefferson and Flowers +2.9 Olave +2.5 (54t, highest volume on list)

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Week 5 top 2 rushers and receivers per team by volume

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Your Leading 2026 Punt/Kick Returners so far... Myles Price and KaVontae Turpin are lapping the field. Price has nearly 100yds more than Turpin, who has nearly 100yds more than Dike at number 3. In only 5 games! The only RB that made the top 10 is Seth McGowan, with just over 80 yards per game.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

So about those Eagles... '23-25 (starting when Jurgens became a starter, first RG, then C), there have been 292 plays where neither he nor Lane Johnson have been on the field. Passing got a little worse, but the rushing game didn't fair as well. Targets also shifted slightly away from the WR.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Behind pace (net ≤ −4) Jones: −5, the week's biggest fall: -1 → −5 as wk4 landed. 4.99 YPA, 40% success, 4 INTs. Baker: −5, 34.9% success, 11.9% sack rate (worst in the set). Herbert: -4, 54.2% comp, 4.6% INT, 9.2% sack. Then Hurts, Rodgers, Willis at −3.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Standouts (ahead of pace, net ≥ +4) Purdy: clear leader at +7. 69.9% comp, 8.91 YPA, 60.2% success, 9.7% TD rate, and 0 sacks Goff: +6, 64.5% comp, 9 TD / 0 INT, improved +2 in wk4 Lamar: +6, 8.77 YPA, 66% comp, plus 40 rush yds Mahomes and Dak: +5, (66.9% comp, 3.8% sack), both solid and steady

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Baseline ‘21–25, same wk1-4 window each year): correlated early against full 2026: 26 QBs w/ 100+ pass attempts Wk1-4 was strong for efficiency Early -> full r Sack rate: 0.85 Rush YPC: 0.84 YPA: 0.78 Success rate: 0.78 Rush yards: 0.76 Comp %: 0.69 TD rate: 0.69 INT rate: 0.56 Pass att: 0.22

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

TEs are hard to trust, but… Kincaid 14.2 YPT on 19 targets, 3 top-quartile metrics Kittle (22t, 11.1 YPT, 4 TD / 18% TD rate) Kelce (22t, 11.2, 3 top-Q) McBride (46t, 5.26) and Likely (35t, 5.43) are the most-targeted TEs but sit in the bottom quartile on YPT 3/3

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Trust (high volume + top band): WR: JSN (42t, 11.5 YPT, 6 TD, 4 top-Q) Flowers (22t, 16.0 YPT, 82% CR) London (25t, 14.8) Evans (24t, 12.2, 3 TD) Coleman (17t, 13.4) 👀 RB: Walker (87c, 6.17 YPC, 4 top-Q) Cook (70c, 6.01) Bijan (85c, 5.81, 4 top-Q) Kyren (54c, 5.44) Chuba (62c, 4.94, 3 top-Q) 2/3

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

How predictive is the early window? 2021-25, wk1-4 → full season - WR (n=369): YPT r=0.65, catch rate r=0.67, success r=0.62, TD r=0.57 - TE (n=208): YPT r=0.60, catch rate r=0.63, success r=0.62, TD r=0.51 - RB (n=256): YPC r=0.66, success r=0.69, TD r=0.60 CR/SR and YPT/YPC best signal. 1/3

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Run/pass splits for opponents vs each team

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Week 4 top 2 receivers and rushers per team by opportunity

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In Ekeler’s first game back, he won on efficiency, but JCM got the volume. Small sample size, but something to keep an eye on.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This season in a nutshell.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Points given up to opposing RBs split by team and whether they came in the air or on the ground. Knowing the difference in where they come from can be important. Per game numbers using 2026 games played so far

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

And lastly, the underachieving players. Lagging behind their 2025 baseline

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Here are the top 10 receivers and rushers compared to their average last season

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

2026 vs 2025 Players vs their yards per target/carry averages from last year As usual, green is good, red shows underperforming in comparison.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

3 weeks in, the season starts to take shape. Some metrics are more predictive than others. Using 2021-2025, I looked at the weeks 1-3 correlation with full season. Welcome back to the top right of the chart, Mahomes.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Early season production for RB/WR/TE Top and bottom

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Yards per carry vs success rate

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

3 weeks into 2026 WR/TE Yards per target vs catch rate

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Run/Pass Splits vs each team defense through 3 weeks

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Week 3 top receivers and rushers per team

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

2026 Run/Pass Funnels are starting to emerge

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Week 2 Top 2 targets and rusher per team

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Don't make too much of the 3rd down pass catching RBs. It's just not enough volume to plan on. 2021-25, Steelers led the league with 1.8 RB targets/gm on 3rd down out of 9.5 3rd down passes/gm. That means best case scenario, hoping for 2 passes in the role, which accounted for 1/4 of RB targets.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Kickers are kicking further, but making them at the same rates. Average FGs went from 37.7yds (2016) to 40.5 (2025). Rate of 50+yds went from 15% to 24%. Make/Block rates have remained fairly flat. Curious if older kicks would've been good from longer, but we understand ranges better now.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Scrambles are both fun and effective unless you’re Tua (bottom left) Scrambles grew from 6.4% of rushing plays (2021) to 7.7% (2025), a 20% increase. 2025 scramble leaders by EPA Baked +0.97 (42 scrambles, 69% SR, 8.9 yds per scramble) Penix +0.89 (come back soon) Dart +0.75 Love +0.69 Caleb +0.61

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Week 1 Number of plays, run/pass splits, top two receiving targets (by volume) and rusher as well.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Your missed opportunity leaders so far for week one.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Wind? What wind? Up until wind reaches 25mph, it doesn't affect passing much, but once it hits 25+, anything over 20 air yards falls off a cliff. Luckily it doesn't happen that frequently. Meanwhile, shorter passes are generally alright.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Even though Stribling wasn't getting targets, he was running routes After Stribling, Evans usage was fairly even Targets shifted towards CMC, Deebo and a couple for Robinson Tonges was also hurt in the 2nd quarter Kittle didn't see a target after the injury Farrell replaced Tonges with 1 target

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Start Jack Strand, you cowards. If it can't be good, let it be fun.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Pre/post AJB Injury Pop Douglas remained relatively steady, but Mack Hollins and Rhamondre Stevenson were the clear beneficiaries. Interestingly, after losing Brown, they reduced the TE targets. Assuming AJ Brown misses next week, will have to see how they adjust with time to gameplan.

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

65% of plays in sope come while trailing (league avg score differential −3.75 vs −2.69) 4th down is 4.2% of attempts (vs 2.4% overall) Red-zone share is lower (9.9% vs 14.9%). EPA in scope beat all-play in 4 of the last 5 years: +0.053 (21), +0.026 (22), −0.047 (23), +0.023 (24), +0.038 (25) 2/2

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

2 min drill works a bit differently than the rest of the game From 2024-25, the best by EPA in the last 2 min of the 2nd/4th Q are: Dak +0.285 EPA Daniels +0.277 Burrow +0.261 Goff +0.245 Hurts +0.238 Biggest regressors: Purdy −0.235 Stroud −0.171 Love −0.141 Darnold −0.159 Mayfield −0.133 1/2

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J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

2025 QB Reads (using FTN Charting data and min 200 attempts) Mahomes w/ most 2nd reads of any high-volume QB and 40.2% success for +0.52 EPA. Best combo. Maye w/ elite EPA on both 1st (+0.53) and 2nd (+0.57), no success drop-off. Love w/ best 1st read EPA (+0.64) but a sharp decline on 2nd.

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