J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 12h2026 vs 2025 Players vs their yards per target/carry averages from last year As usual, green is good, red shows underperforming in comparison. 110
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/09/20263 weeks in, the season starts to take shape. Some metrics are more predictive than others. Using 2021-2025, I looked at the weeks 1-3 correlation with full season. Welcome back to the top right of the chart, Mahomes. 030
Reposted by JJeremy - r/fantasyfootball mod @redditffmod.bsky.social · 24/09/2026www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfoo...reddit.comFrom the fantasyfootball community on Reddit: I'm Pete Davidson of the Rotobahn Podcast and Blog. Ask me anything!Explore this post and more from the fantasyfootball community 011
Reposted by JTommy Blair @fftommyb.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Exciting announcement! On October 13th at 8:30pm Eastern I'll be hosting a panel of the sharpest minds in FF for a livestream discussion on the State of Dynasty in 2026. Featuring: Scott Connor, @tacitassassin13.bsky.social, @petedavidsonny.bsky.social, @koopatroopa8.bsky.social 199
Reposted by JTommy Blair @fftommyb.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Week Two NB10 scores (season to date): 041
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Correction... AMA is live! www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfoo...reddit.comFrom the fantasyfootball community on Reddit: I'm Jon Leonard of OTC Fantasy Football - AMAExplore this post and more from the fantasyfootball community 032
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Ran into some issues with Reddit bots, so my AMA is apparently not happening today. Sorry folks 010
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Don't make too much of the 3rd down pass catching RBs. It's just not enough volume to plan on. 2021-25, Steelers led the league with 1.8 RB targets/gm on 3rd down out of 9.5 3rd down passes/gm. That means best case scenario, hoping for 2 passes in the role, which accounted for 1/4 of RB targets. 172
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Kickers are kicking further, but making them at the same rates. Average FGs went from 37.7yds (2016) to 40.5 (2025). Rate of 50+yds went from 15% to 24%. Make/Block rates have remained fairly flat. Curious if older kicks would've been good from longer, but we understand ranges better now. 000
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Had the pleasure of returning to The Margins to talk endurance and fantasy football. Love how @fftommyb.bsky.social relates the subjects and in awe of the things he does for fun. 021
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Scrambles are both fun and effective unless you’re Tua (bottom left) Scrambles grew from 6.4% of rushing plays (2021) to 7.7% (2025), a 20% increase. 2025 scramble leaders by EPA Baked +0.97 (42 scrambles, 69% SR, 8.9 yds per scramble) Penix +0.89 (come back soon) Dart +0.75 Love +0.69 Caleb +0.61 010
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Cooper Rush faced Carolina 2x, both for Dallas away ‘24 Wk 15 18/30 for 214 yds 3 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack +0.38 EPA/pass, 56.7% SR Lamb 9/13/116, 1 TD Cooks 3/5/34 Ferguson 2/4/23 ‘23 Wk 11 3 passes in a blowout 2/3, 15 yds (−0.36 EPA/pass) 5 yds to Schoonmaker 10 yds to Turpin incomplete deep to Turpin 110
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Week 1 Number of plays, run/pass splits, top two receiving targets (by volume) and rusher as well. 010
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Wind? What wind? Up until wind reaches 25mph, it doesn't affect passing much, but once it hits 25+, anything over 20 air yards falls off a cliff. Luckily it doesn't happen that frequently. Meanwhile, shorter passes are generally alright. 020
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Even though Stribling wasn't getting targets, he was running routes After Stribling, Evans usage was fairly even Targets shifted towards CMC, Deebo and a couple for Robinson Tonges was also hurt in the 2nd quarter Kittle didn't see a target after the injury Farrell replaced Tonges with 1 target 041
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Game 1 NB10 Pop Douglas running the most routes was not on my bingo card 000
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Pre/post AJB Injury Pop Douglas remained relatively steady, but Mack Hollins and Rhamondre Stevenson were the clear beneficiaries. Interestingly, after losing Brown, they reduced the TE targets. Assuming AJ Brown misses next week, will have to see how they adjust with time to gameplan. 251
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 09/09/20262 min drill works a bit differently than the rest of the game From 2024-25, the best by EPA in the last 2 min of the 2nd/4th Q are: Dak +0.285 EPA Daniels +0.277 Burrow +0.261 Goff +0.245 Hurts +0.238 Biggest regressors: Purdy −0.235 Stroud −0.171 Love −0.141 Darnold −0.159 Mayfield −0.133 1/2 142
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 04/09/20262025 QB Reads (using FTN Charting data and min 200 attempts) Mahomes w/ most 2nd reads of any high-volume QB and 40.2% success for +0.52 EPA. Best combo. Maye w/ elite EPA on both 1st (+0.53) and 2nd (+0.57), no success drop-off. Love w/ best 1st read EPA (+0.64) but a sharp decline on 2nd. 021
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Dropped by the Future 1st Pod to do a Process 1st session and talk about a recent startup with JMac. Give a listen if you’re interested open.spotify.com/episode/6okx...open.spotify.comProcess 1st Podcast - Ep 14 - Cobra - JonFuture 1st Podcast · Episode 121
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 28/08/2026On avg, from the last 5 yrs, when do rookie WRs start to contribute... Average 6th wk for rookies to hit 5+ rec. 1st rd WRs contribute right away. 2nd rd took until ~ wk 11. 3rd+ (on avg) didn't... Team pass volume has a small impact on rec/wk, but round matters more. Temper rookie expectations. 030
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Middle > Out Passing to the middle of the field has had roughly twice the EPA of throwing to either side. It's also a roughly 6-10 percentage point gain on success rate. QBs are biased to sides, but is that due to the QB or receivers? Hard to say. Lamar has the most exaggerated split in sample. 240
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 27/08/2026As the season approaches, remember that we learn a ton in the first month. Keep an eye out and be ready to act come October. 030
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Mapping out all the NFL trades 2021-2025 Most frequent partners - HOU → PHI (8), MIN (5), CLE (4) - PHI → HOU (8), NYJ (6), JAX (5) - NYJ → PHI (6), DEN (4), KC (4) - NE → KC (6), LV (4), CAR (3) - MIN → HOU (5), NYJ (4), IND (3) - BUF → CHI (5), HOU (3), ATL (2) - DEN → NO (5), NYJ (4), DET (3) 030
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Another new face in the space. Check out my dynasty friends @mwiggins25.bsky.social and guest @fftommyb.bsky.social on the launch of the Laughing Lizard's new show! 030
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Over the last 10 years, RB target volume has come down quite a bit. Especially in the last 2 years. Outside of the 2yr dip, RB receiving EPA has been generally positive. 1/2 141
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 20/08/2026More plays = good. 2021-2025 Plays Per Game Dallas and Tampa consistently have among the highest offensive plays/gm. 5yr avg, Dallas has ~8 more plays/gm than Seattle. Vikings were among the leaders until JJM, dropping nearly 10 plays/gm. Definite regression candidate if Kyler doesn't suck. 1/4 140
Reposted by JTommy Blair @fftommyb.bsky.social · 18/08/2026I’ve been sitting on this awesome guest spot by @koopatroopa8.bsky.social for a while now and am excited to finally share it with youpodcasts.apple.comEpisode 13: KoopaPodcast Episode · The Margins · August 18 · 1h 16m 023
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 17/08/2026How much do scoring systems impact the distribution of points in fantasy? Swapping 6pt passing TDs for 4pt TDs swings the QB distribution and shaves as many as 50pts off the top, consolidating quite a bit. You can see the drop in the overall rankings that the scoring change causes. 1/4 262
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 15/08/2026Tommy’s been really influential in getting me to emerge from the shadows and it was great to chat with him. Check out the latest episode of The Margins. 121
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 14/08/2026Took a look at where the yards came from in 2025 Took the weeks 1-17 regular season sample and players with a minimum 75 targets. Some nuggets... Diggs was still really good. Jeudy wasn't. Pickens 🚀 Rice looks a lot like Shakir. Low aDot, 5.2 YAC, though on fewer targets. What do you see? 240
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/08/2026OK, this is going to be a long one. I took a stab at production allowed by defenses over the last 5 years across QB, RB, WR, TE. What we're looking for is consistency and consistently green. There are no clear avoids here, but a few teams went red in 2025, bucking trends, so keep an eye out. 1/4 162
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Jumped into a dynasty bestball startup with some friends at the Future 1st Pod. If you're curious about some of the strategy that I used and how it went, check it out here. otcffb.com/content/dyna...otcffb.comAnatomy Of A Bestball StartupAre you curious about bestball, but not ready to jump into a startup? Follow along here and see how my most recent one went. 040
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 11/08/20262025 Deep Ball Duos League avg on deep passes (8+ att.) is 0.5 EPA/play The top 8 duos are all above 1.3 EPA/play Drake Maye shows up 3 times with Boutte (1.968), Diggs (1.401) and Pop Douglas (1.368) Herbert, Mahomes, Williams and Darnold round out the top 8 JJM -> JJ worst duo in the data 1/2 121
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Annual reminder that preseason depth charts don’t mean anything… …unless they align with my priors 050
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 09/08/2026Home vs Away 2024-2025 Biggest home advantage: Penix (+0.456) Rudolph (+0.398) Mariota (+0.249) Biggest negative (better away): Rush (-0.259), R. Wilson (-0.257), D. Watson (-0.221) High-volume: Allen (+0.184) and Tua (+0.165) better at home Purdy (-0.163) Cousins (-0.161) better away 1/2 131
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 08/08/2026And with that, my #SLFF4 draft is complete. Took McLaurin right before the Diggs news, but otherwise reasonably pleased with it. 120
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Just a quickie on play action. Biggest boosts from PA last 4 yrs. Tutu, Flowers, Wicks, JSN, Watson Flowers just got paid and Ravens are supposedly going to use more PA. Eagles added Wicks and… more PA. 🤔 …Sorry for the confusing table / it’s top and bottom 15 by PA boost 010
Reposted by JZac Reed @tacitassassin13.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Not trying to tell you how to do things… But Fantasy Football W[orld] is back and you should probably subscribe on your favorite podcast app and on YouTube youtu.be/7nmJnFJVCao?...youtu.beHour 1: The Peacock Rises!YouTube video by Fantasy Football World 053
Reposted by JScott Fish @scottfish.bsky.social · 06/08/2026Our @ffworldshow.bsky.social youtube needs 14 more subscribers before we can live stream, a little help? Our first mini episode out now, full episode tomorrow www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEcV...youtube.comFantasy Football World - Episode 0YouTube video by Fantasy Football World 275
J @jonleonard.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Jumping on the OTC YouTube with Kerty and Ktrull tonight at 9PM ET if you’re so inclined www.youtube.com/live/EMW5tl7...youtube.comOTC Discord Mailbag w/Ktrull & JonYouTube video by OTC Fantasy 032
