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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 23h

On this point ... UK jobs machine continues to go brrrr.

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

My partner got her passport this year. She won't be culturally British or English by his standards, and isn't ethnically English. But as a scientist, and one who's training the next generation of biomedical workers, she's adding to our society. Unlike Jenrick.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Perhaps this will work, but Brexit, energy, Russia, Iran, US deficits and AI are the reasons taxes have gone up so quickly, and the Conservatives don't have plausible answers to any of those.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Just make the city skyline of tax rates a curve. High school maths, and anyway a government website could calculate this for you.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

This Dieter Helm essay doesn't engage with what's driving high UK energy prices in a serious way. Read @acjsissons.bsky.social instead. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The reason this 'revolving door' argument is wrong is in part because of Brexit itself. Permanent settlement rates are somewhat lower than with the rest of the world, but that's because a lot of EU nationals have returned home as a result of Brexit. Net migration has been negative since 2022.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

We know the reduction of trade costs took about a decade to arise when the UK joined the EU. Since the OBR's forecast window is 5 years, it seems fair to say half of that £40 bn loss would be recovered, allowing Davey's mooted tax cut.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Interesting contrast between the consensus in Germany that the firewall isn't working, and the view of Anglophone liberals that the norm of shunning the far-right should be re-established. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s...

The Guardian: "The AfD, widely seen as more radical than comparable European parties, had been relegated to permanent opposition in Germany by the “firewall” strategy of shunning by the mainstream parties. But this policy is now widely seen to have failed, allowing the AfD to snipe from the sidelines about the slow pace of any positive change."

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Side with the minority here. Ban the black shorts though

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The paper argues this different standard is wrong. But the key is whether the "defendant ... [was] seeking out the opportunity to be so engaged". In this case, Reform officials made the proposal.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The Reform line that this is entrapment doesn't seem to be a strong defence legally. Entrapment by the police is can be abuse of the legal process. By private individuals, it can be a defence only if there has been gross misconduct. www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/e...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Excellent @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social interview with Fukuyama. Key point here: a globalised economic system provides material comfort, but to get status you need scarce skills. You don't want to compete with overseas workers. www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...

The last man might have his basic economic needs met, but he would become angry if he believed he was not receiving the recognition that was his due. It amounts to the simple craving for one’s equal dignity to be respected.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Looks like a tightening labour market, not elite over-production

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Camilla Cavendish argues for the Blue Labour strategy to continue. Side point: the Blair government did do these things. The Cameron government, on the other hand ... www.ft.com/content/acfe...

Had the Blair government acknowledged the true scale of arrivals and created more infrastructure to support them, there might have been less resentment of the pressure put on school places and NHS primary care — this was visceral in many interviews I did with Leavers after Brexit.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Disagree with Haldane's 'it's psychological' argument. UK terms of trade have deteriorated: weaker exports and higher import prices means interest rates have risen. That will push up savings rates! www.ft.com/content/117e...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Nice to see some line-drawing, but this is just wrong, and itself conspiratorial. There are lots of reasons why politicians have run a liberal immigration policy (often while claiming hawkishness) and a big one is the pressure to keep tax down. archive.ph/vLHL5

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

I have (and I think exorbitant privilege/fiscal policy plays a part too). But the gap between US and UK GDP per capita at PPP has been growing in the 2020s. Less so US vs the euro area, but still apparent. data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

It's doubly important because his first offence under the Communications Act was for whipping up anti-Muslim hatred. www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/u...

15. You have a bad criminal record generally, with convictions as a young man for
violence and criminal damage, and a public order offence in 2010 which involved
racial abuse. In August 2013 you committed the first of your offences under the
Malicious Communications Act 1988. You posted an article on the Internet
claiming falsely that the owners of a public house in Leicester had banned
members of the armed services from their premises out of respect for the Islamic
community. The article prompted a flood of abuse and threats of arson and
violence towards the public house which led to the premises being closed.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

The reality is that irregular crossings are sharply down on 2025 (this is to April, but more recent data shows a 40% drop vs the same period in 2025). And compared to 2015, hugely so. The tactics the EU has used to do this have been controversial! www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infograph...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Definitely medical. I'd go with the covid vaccination programme. ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccin...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

They've moved quickly, and are inflating the dinghies

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

France is sending 184 police officers to the border with Spain, which is quite a long way from Ceuta.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

"We would preserve our countryside, encourage biodiversity, invest in flood defences, and ensure that Britain is resilient". Emissions cuts unmentioned.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Badenoch says the UK's net zero policies have raised emissions. Obviously this is false.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Most of the turnaround came via a crushing internal devaluation, with high unemployment reducing wages relative to the rest of the EU and making Greece more price competitive.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

That pattern ended in 2016. The US can't Brexit, so not sure what the lesson is.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Interesting piece by @econromesh.bsky.social. I always thought the right frame was the trade-off between (formal) sovereignty and living standards, and we emphasised that from the start. But the Leave campaign was effective with 'wrong then, wrong now' and so forth 1/ blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsoci...

Economic hubris, political nemesis
There was another mismatch too. Economists believed they were answering the central question facing the country: would Brexit make the country more or less prosperous?

Many voters were asking a different question altogether. Who should make UK laws? How should immigration be controlled? What kind of country do we want to be?

These are not questions that economics can settle, nor should it pretend to. Looking back, one of our mistakes was to assume that because the economic consequences were important, they would also be decisive.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

There has been some erosion of concern/support for climate action, but it's been slow, despite the end of the political consensus. I wonder if this is more ideological than tactical. www.gov.uk/government/s...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

I snorted www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Munira Mirza: Prioritising the welfare of those who live and contribute in the UK over those who have recently arrived or want to come here. Helping young British entrepreneurs grow their businesses rather than be forced to leave because they face costs that multinationals can absorb. Making sure we capture some of the value of AI rather than become entirely dependent on the US. Giving parliament the power to decide who gives away our territory, not international courts.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

And all I did with it was play Sensible Soccer.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

It's not though. You might disagree with the North Sea policy, but it doesn't make much difference to jobs, energy prices or the public finances either way.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

@faisalislam.bsky.social rounds up the Brexit research and adds some interesting points of his own. A sizeable chunk of the reduction in services trade we found in our paper was in transport. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Back in 2016, 1.64m trucks went through the tunnel. Last year, post Brexit, there were 1.16m. So there are almost half a million missing lorry journeys a year - nearly 30% of this economically critical, high-value cross-Channel traffic has been lost.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

I think they'd be slower to arise than exit. Might take a decade. Businesses have adjusted; it would take time for competitive pressures to reorder supply chains. You're right that more immediate effect would be to raise investment and sterling, so raising the international value of UK assets.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

"If you're explaining, you're losing" consoc.org.uk/publications...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

This is a fairly common view in business, but individual companies' bottom lines are not social welfare. There are gains from the competition from imports, and future exporting companies would grow faster with a larger market.

"But also, we've got a solution, we've got a competitive advantage."

After spending "well over £1m, maybe £1.5m", Moss adds he "wouldn't want to see that investment lost". - Businessman to BBC

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

@tommctague.bsky.social on the EU not being "the principal source of our ills", membership or not. Perhaps, but the counterfactuals point to a hit that's equivalent to about a quarter of the post-financial crisis gap. (Please excuse the MS Paint.) www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

My street has been having a party today and it's been extreme wholesome fun. Buffet table, musical bingo, live music. Lots of kids loving the transgression of playing on the road and beating the crap out of this pinata.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

While it's true that it's hard to model, it's also true that the estimates could be too low as well as too high. That's how uncertainty works. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

It was pretty rapid in Poland's case. And the UK's when it joined the EEC.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Our model was built from the bottom up, using trade data for different sectors of the economy. Most sectors showed Brexit losses, in both goods and services.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Here are the headline figures – UK imports from the EU down around 16%, with customs union exit responsible for 1%, exports down 12%, customs union responsible for 2%.

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

The number of non-EU workers in the UK rose very rapidly from 2021, when the new migration system was put in place, and far outpaced the control. In 2025, there were about 1.15 million more than the control. 4

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

There are about 800,000 fewer EU workers than a control group of richer EU countries, whose trends have been weighted into a single control that most closely matches the UK trend before the referendum. 2

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

So now we're at Goodwin's spidey-sense definition of English, which is mostly white but sometimes black people are included. He knows it when he sees it.

BBC News: Goodwin suggested that being white can be considered an important part of the overall British national identity. "In Britain one of the symbols of who we are is the white British people. Part of the makeup, it's part of our composition as a nation. There's nothing inherently bad about saying that, it's simply the reality of who we are."

Although Goodwin also said earlier in the interview: "Yes, it is possible to be black and be English. It is not as likely as it is to be white British and English, but it's possible."

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