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Jake Rubinstein

@jlrube.jakerubinstein.com
468 followers 518 following 279 posts

Splitting time between here and my X. Slowly migrating. / Survey Methods / random pictures of my cat / #f1 / US politics Data/Polling/Quant methods at HIT Strategies. More active on the birdsite with the same handle linktr.ee/jlrube

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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 7h
You can now see both sides over at TheMerchRace.com
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 01/10/2026
First day* stats from TheMerchRace.com. I still can't believe this idea that started as a twitter thread of my favorite merch got so much engagement today! Please continue to vote for the best merch and share with your friends. Maybe even buy some of the stuff you see from the candidates.
Graphic from The Merch Race: 4,777 votes on day one, meaning the first 15 hours. 897 designs from 73 candidates, and every one has been in a matchup. Below, a row of seven cartoon t-shirts runs along a checkered stripe. TheMerchRace.com.Graphic from The Merch Race: the longest winning streak of day one (the first 15 hours) is 10 wins in a row, held by the Vote Your Ossoff Sticker Pack from Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate. The photo shows three navy round stickers reading "Vote your Ossoff" with a peach. Not affiliated with any campaign. TheMerchRace.com.Leaderboard from The Merch Race: Best merch after day one (the first 15 hours), ranked by 4,777 head-to-head votes on Sep 30, 2026. First: Vote Your Ossoff Sticker Pack, Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate, 10 wins and 0 losses. Second: Vote Your Ossoff Mug, Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate, 10 wins and 1 loss. Third: Katie Hobbs Stamp 11-ounce coffee mug, Katie Hobbs, Arizona Governor, 10 wins and 1 loss. Not affiliated with any campaign. TheMerchRace.com.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 30/09/2026
Now with a proper preview card TheMerchRace.com
themerchrace.com
The Merch Race
Vote head-to-head on the best Democratic campaign merch of 2026, and see which candidate runs the best store.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 30/09/2026
As you might know, I'm a sucker for a good piece of chaotic campaign merchandise. I'd originally planned to do a just a quick twitter thread of my favorites, but it rapidly evolved into this fun little side project. Please go vote (and buy your favorites) TheMerchRace.com
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 20/05/2026
I'm a ranked choice voting fan, but DC may have chosen the most absurd ranked choice counting method for a multi member district humanly possible. You really need to use a single transferable vote method for multi member districts. I would not be shocked if this leads to a rep on the council
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 14/05/2026
Ah yes, the joys of DC police week. NJ cops with taped over license plates blocking bus lanes
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Reposted by Jake Rubinstein
Rabbi Danya Ruttenberg @theradr.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
what are each of these sandwiches go
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 13/05/2026
The #aapor fomo is setting in 😭
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 02/05/2026
If Platner wins, in like 5 years jeopardy will have Lindsey Graham Platner as a before and after question
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 30/04/2026
All DC local issues, ballots for the special, mayor, house rep. Also asked about a few stray bills including waymo, and Bowser/Pirro's domestic violence bill. Also some negatives against Janeese and Oye Owolewa
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 30/04/2026
If that interviewer said "thank you for that information" one more time after I answered a question, I was going to scream
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 30/04/2026
I, a voter under 40, just took a 15 minute poll on the telephone. Please clap
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 28/04/2026
What ever happened to Larry the cable guy?
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 26/04/2026
What if Jim Acosta and Michael Tracey settled their differences at the UFC Freedom 250
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 24/04/2026
The capital hill neighborhood is a weird place. Saw this on a new-ish toyota SUV this afternoon
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 22/04/2026
The kick is good
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 21/04/2026
If I bet on election outcomes, I would be buying Yes 6-9% for $0.17 on the site that must not be named. (It was 17 cents when I tweeted this originally. Its 24 cents now.)
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 21/04/2026
Yeah it was 2 years ago, but my point stands. If you've been thinking about it for 2 years just do it
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 21/04/2026
You should just do it already if you've been thinking about it for almost a decade!
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 21/04/2026
I still think about this about 50% of the time I put something into the field
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 20/04/2026
Here, have a picture of my cat looking very offended
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 16/04/2026
It's just name ID
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 15/04/2026
I basically never eat pasta at home though and there is something that simply won't let me pay 6.99 to ship a 2 dollar box of pasta.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 15/04/2026
I need this but there is no financially sane way for me to get 1 box
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 14/04/2026
Okay who else do I need to follow on this site as twitter becomes more and more useless? Looking for #F1 #Politics and just the general weird stuff that made older twitter delightful
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 14/04/2026
This is a wild piece and I enjoyed every minute of it. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
theatlantic.com
I Found It: The Best Free Restaurant Bread in America
Thirteen thousand miles. Infinite contenders. One beautiful loaf.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 12/04/2026
Very weird that this guy is a mayor
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 09/04/2026
Yeah, makes sense. Didn't realize you had a trend on it. My thought was you end up getting people reflexively saying worse because of big money in elections. Maybe a split test next time.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 09/04/2026
I'd have preferred that they didn't clutter the question with so much detail, but this is still a surprisingly high number Source: www.uml.edu/Research/pub...
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 09/04/2026
According to the most recent UMass Lowell poll 53% of self-id'd Democrats are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by AIPAC.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 07/04/2026
Moderating a focus group tonight and wondering what I'm supposed to do if we nuke Iran during the group
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 02/04/2026
Ground Control to Major Tom Ground Control to Major Tom Restart teams and turn your camera on Ground Control to Major Tom (ten, nine, eight, seven, six) Restarting outlook, wi-fi on (five, four, three, two) Check connection and may share point work for you (one, lift off)
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 01/04/2026
Just a reminder, the SLS was started during Obama admin and Trump has tried to cut its funding several times. So when those astronauts get near the moon, remember to say "Thanks, Obama"
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 01/04/2026
I am going to try and remember to crosspost though
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 01/04/2026
Jk, I'm addicted to that hell site
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 01/04/2026
I'm quitting twitter
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 31/03/2026
I should remember to post here more
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Reposted by Jake Rubinstein
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
i made a chart
Line graph labeled "How much of my waking life I spend thinking about bread" with significant peaks around Passover and Yom Kippur
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 11/09/2025
Hmmmmmm #mapoli
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 12/08/2025
Has anyone gone through and checked E.J. Antoni's dissertation for plagiarism? Cause it would be very funny if he plagiarized.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 05/08/2025
A Diddler on the roof. Sounds crazy, no? But here, in our little island of Epstein you might say every one of us is a Diddler
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 24/07/2025
I'm guessing someone on election Twitter had done this already, though I haven't seen it. I'm planning to do a bunch more analysis but want to do it in a coherent way, not as random tweets
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
Oh, this is great stuff. I'm glad to see it. I missed it when it came out.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
Yours had the batch elimination, mind does not. But yeah, I did miss yours
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
After I'm done with my writeup, I'd be happy to work with you all to answer anything specific though!
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
BOE published the raw CVR on their site this afternoon. I'm undecided if I'm broadly sharing my cleaned version, but definitely won't until I've written the longer piece I'm planning. But there isn't a technical reason you couldn't run something like that.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
After I'm done with my writeup, I can probably make my cleaned CVR available for something like this, even if I don't just post the whole file for anyone to use.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
Yeah, saving that for my longer write up!
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
Yeah the CVR was posted at like 5. It's a pain to work with. Only reason I was so quick is I did it in 2021 and the spec didn't change vote.nyc/page/electio...
vote.nyc
Election Results Summary | NYC Board of Elections
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
@xkonstantinidis.bsky.social would you believe all the processing code for this is in stata 😂
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