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Jake Rubinstein

@jlrube.jakerubinstein.com
468 followers 518 following 279 posts

Splitting time between here and my X. Slowly migrating. / Survey Methods / random pictures of my cat / #f1 / US politics Data/Polling/Quant methods at HIT Strategies. More active on the birdsite with the same handle linktr.ee/jlrube

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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 04/10/2026
You can now see both sides over at TheMerchRace.com
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 01/10/2026
First day* stats from TheMerchRace.com. I still can't believe this idea that started as a twitter thread of my favorite merch got so much engagement today! Please continue to vote for the best merch and share with your friends. Maybe even buy some of the stuff you see from the candidates.
Graphic from The Merch Race: 4,777 votes on day one, meaning the first 15 hours. 897 designs from 73 candidates, and every one has been in a matchup. Below, a row of seven cartoon t-shirts runs along a checkered stripe. TheMerchRace.com.Graphic from The Merch Race: the longest winning streak of day one (the first 15 hours) is 10 wins in a row, held by the Vote Your Ossoff Sticker Pack from Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate. The photo shows three navy round stickers reading "Vote your Ossoff" with a peach. Not affiliated with any campaign. TheMerchRace.com.Leaderboard from The Merch Race: Best merch after day one (the first 15 hours), ranked by 4,777 head-to-head votes on Sep 30, 2026. First: Vote Your Ossoff Sticker Pack, Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate, 10 wins and 0 losses. Second: Vote Your Ossoff Mug, Jon Ossoff, Georgia Senate, 10 wins and 1 loss. Third: Katie Hobbs Stamp 11-ounce coffee mug, Katie Hobbs, Arizona Governor, 10 wins and 1 loss. Not affiliated with any campaign. TheMerchRace.com.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 20/05/2026
I'm a ranked choice voting fan, but DC may have chosen the most absurd ranked choice counting method for a multi member district humanly possible. You really need to use a single transferable vote method for multi member districts. I would not be shocked if this leads to a rep on the council
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 14/05/2026
Ah yes, the joys of DC police week. NJ cops with taped over license plates blocking bus lanes
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 24/04/2026
The capital hill neighborhood is a weird place. Saw this on a new-ish toyota SUV this afternoon
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 22/04/2026
The kick is good
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 21/04/2026
I still think about this about 50% of the time I put something into the field
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 20/04/2026
Here, have a picture of my cat looking very offended
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 15/04/2026
I need this but there is no financially sane way for me to get 1 box
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 12/04/2026
Very weird that this guy is a mayor
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 09/04/2026
I'd have preferred that they didn't clutter the question with so much detail, but this is still a surprisingly high number Source: www.uml.edu/Research/pub...
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 11/09/2025
Hmmmmmm #mapoli
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/07/2025
🧵 The data you have all been waiting for! The NYC mayoral primary WITHOUT batch elimination (and some early analysis) 1) Zohran's first round (469,642) would have been enough to win against Cuomo's final round (443,229)
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 21/07/2025
Okay, I've got some questions about the region definitions in the new Suffolk Boston Mayoral Poll
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 15/07/2025
Just about 20k of them
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 15/07/2025
No, there were only about 13k Wiley only voters. More so that Wiley voters ranked other folks who had already been eliminated (e.g. Stringer, Morales, and Donovan)
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 15/07/2025
At the moment no, because I'm in the middle of reworking my code to prep for 2025. But NYCCFB reports there were about 125k bullet voters for mayor and about half of those were for Adams This is an older table I ran on most common ballots which is also helpful context here.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 15/07/2025
Did you ever wonder what the 2021 NYC mayoral looked like as a Sankey Diagram? Well, wait no longer
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 30/06/2025
I tried to think where I might have seen a similar pattern and know I have data. Only example I thought of is Obama 08 in GA. We saw Black turnout surge more traditionally, white turnout was also up, but Black surged more. But Black share of the electorate was only up 5pp
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 05/06/2025
Jeez, Cuomo really did suggest Obama was Shucking and Jiving
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 05/06/2025
✨Manifesting for the NYC mayoral debate✨
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 28/05/2025
This is an incredible burn rate without any TV spending from Kraft. Wu is much closer to normal for this part of the year, and had cash on hand already.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/05/2025
Somehow this is not AI
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 16/05/2025
Cool shell formation on my beach walk
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 03/05/2025
Chunk Norris is cheering for Chunk of Gold in the Derby because they have the same first name
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 02/05/2025
Incredible. It appears as though I was right and they needed to form a PAC. The ironic part, is the only reason I even looked closer is because they threw shade at David Ortiz
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 02/05/2025
Incredible, over on the bird site the AntiWuCoaltion twitter account appears to have just fully admitted to violating campaign fiance laws
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 02/05/2025
Update! The AntiWuCoalition has removed their donation link. Glad they're working to be in compliance with the law. Free tip for whoever is running it, check with OCPF to see what you need to do be fully compliant They're the most useful agency in MA gov if you're proactive
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 02/05/2025
Tim Scott pre-registering his chick-fil-a purchases is wild
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 01/05/2025
It’s been a minute since I did MA campaign finance work, but I’m pretty sure that if you form an org to oppose a candidate and solicit contributions, you’re required to register with OCPF. It appears that “Bostonians Against Mayor Wu” hasn’t registered at all.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 25/04/2025
🧵 Measuring knowledge is one of the hardest tasks in question writing, and this example shows how seemingly good questions can miss. This seems like a reasonable question: "Here are 4 definitions—which one is correct?" If you know the answer, great, click it and move on 1/7
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 24/04/2025
I haven't seen a fresh NYC mayoral poll to QT recently, but since Zohran is running his first ads tonight, figured I'd re-up my series on "what the polls said at this point in 2021" Adams had started to pick up steam Wiley and Garcia were both still in single digits
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 10/04/2025
Jews born on April 16th really have the worst luck over the next 1000 years.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 10/04/2025
This formula seems wrong 🤣
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 07/04/2025
Haven't seen this meme template in a while
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 05/04/2025
My #F1 bold prediction for the #japanGP is so on
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 14/03/2025
House Democrats right now
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 05/03/2025
Gonna need him to pull a duo
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 25/02/2025
I nominated my cat for my building's pet of the month. If he doesn't win, you know the contest is rigged
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 10/02/2025
America has had it with these motherf----ing Chiefs in the motherf----ing Superbowl
The Jeb map meme, but all the states are eagles green, the eagles logo is above the map, and jeb is replaced by Sam Jackson as Uncle sam
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 29/01/2025
It will be eternally funny to me that the last episode of the Talk Tuah podcast before the rug pull on the meme coin was "how to avoid getting cancelled".
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 28/01/2025
Wait a second, does this mean that lesbian marriages (2 women) count double in census stats and gay marriage (2 men) don't count at all?
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 28/01/2025
Getting a whole lot of sarcastic use out of this custom slack react today
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 28/01/2025
"... And I'm from Boston Massachusetts" #thebachelor
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 27/01/2025
Okay, what is your record for how long you can make deepseek think about a prompt when DeepThink is turned on. I just hit 168 seconds!
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 27/01/2025
When did Microsoft paint add a remove background feature
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 23/01/2025
Doing some research today on the nutrition at Taco Bell (IYKYK). Decided to check out how many Calories Sarah McBride's insane order is. 🥁🥁🥁 2960 Calories. Which honestly, if you're very active and doing OMAD, is not insane.
"She does not eat breakfast or lunch, she says; her dinner order at her Taco Bell/KFC in Wilmington is insane (“Nachos and cheese, four hard tacos, one soft Taco Supreme, three crispy drumsticks and an eight-piece chicken tender thing”)."
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 22/01/2025
Mirroring this series of posts Just updating this graphic with today's poll release showing Cuomo at 33%. Andrew Yang was still up substantially in a poll with a similar date.
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 22/01/2025
Buried in the cross tabs of the bold decisions poll, half of Black voters say Cuomo is currently their first choice and 43% of Cuomo's 1st choice votes are from Black folks. Seems pretty clear to me, that if you want to stop Cuomo the route to doing that runs through Black voters
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Jake Rubinstein @jlrube.jakerubinstein.com · 16/01/2025
Chunk Norris is a ridiculous creature
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