Sign in

jjhall.bsky.social

@jjhall.bsky.social
119 followers 80 following 20 posts
PostsRepliesMedia
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
I wrote on the NYPD's Kobayashi Maru with ICE:
022
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 04/10/2026
This is very good. “Over 2.2 million cancer deaths can be attributed to Costco; that’s more than 20% of all cancer deaths between 2000 and 2018.”
Ridiculous things you can “prove” caused cancer mortality

Everything causes cancer. Sounds cliché; maybe those California warning tags were right all along. But thanks to the methodology created by Alwadi et al., we can now prove that anything and everything causes cancer. Oh, sorry, that is too strong of an assertion. To use the authors’ words, since they have claimed their papers don’t prove causality, we can create an association between any physical landmark and cancer and, from that association, figure out how much cancer is attributable to that thing. Which is totally not the same as saying “that thing causes cancer.”

For instance, living near a private four-year university is associated with a 15-fold increase in cancer mortality when compared
1111523
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Now out at JQC by my PhD student John Hall and Justin Nix: "[NYPD] Pursuit escalation produced clear and attributable collision harms while providing no credible evidence of crime reduction." link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
The Fast and the Spurious: A Causal Evaluation of NYPD’s Pursuit Policy, 2022–2025 - Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Objectives This study examines the consequences of the New York City Police Department’s late-2022 operational shift that sharply expanded vehicle pursuits. We evaluate whether the surge in pursuits a...
2124
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
I did this for felony assaults in NYPD (copying LA Time piece) and we used it for a few years.
020
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Some of it is a function of auditing. Some of it requires further explanation. For example, transit revision rates diverged from the total city's rates in 2023, with the same auditing machinery in place.
110
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
In fact, of 95 monthly releases looked at, total 7 major crime increased in all of them. And, revision rates have been increasing over time.
100
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
I looked at 7+ years of NYPD press releases (and other data sources) to see how the numbers changed over time. The latest press release shows a 20% increased in the February 2025 transit crime numbers as of this year (compared to last year). www.vitalcitynyc.org/real-crime-n...
100
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
On why crime numbers move: www.vitalcitynyc.org/real-crime-n...
vitalcitynyc.org
Reality Check: Why Do New York City’s Crime Numbers Change?
Why the actual state of crime might be worse than initially trumpeted
100
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
New York's Gun Involved Violence Elimination (GIVE) initiative reported its December data showing 20 shooting victims in all of December across 20 agencies (not NYPD) That's by far the fewest number of shooting victims recorded in a month since collection started in 2006.
155
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Jeff Asher @jeffasher.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
New this week: I wrote about the dozen cities I found that had fewer murders in 2025 than in any of the last 50 years. A wide range of cities with incredible results. jasher.substack.com/p/the-cities...
34517
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
311 is a mess, yet it's being used as if it's not!
000
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Peak day: January 05, 2025 with 4,978 calls. Hasn't let up that much. Maybe we can't use this data to understand disorder in the city?
100
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
One address accounted for over 26% of the NYPD's 311 calls in Jan 2025. They get 1.5+ million calls per year. Seems like a problem (not with the building).
110
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
The “zone strategy” was Maddrey’s brainchild ( drawing explicitly on Operation Impact—an approach that shaped much of the department’s leadership during their formative years as young captains.)
000
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
One of the more reckless policy decisions of the past 4 years.
000
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Has Youth Crime in New York Risen After Raise the Age? www.thecity.nyc/2025/12/15/r...
thecity.nyc
Has Youth Crime in New York Risen After Raise the Age?
Overall, no. In one specific area, there’s serious cause for concern.
000
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Sometimes you can't be "data-driven."
100
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Yes. It's the Calibri.
000
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
or my favorite:
120
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Government plugging along in Excel! Have to be charitable. But yes, it is ugly. It happens (NYPD, 2024):
100
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Of note, @jeffasher.bsky.social: www.nyc.gov/html/dot/dow...
nyc.gov
121
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
doesn't cadet time give you an extra day?
000
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Youth crime and recidivism in NYC in context: criminaljustice.cityofnewyork.us/reports/nyc-...
criminaljustice.cityofnewyork.us
NYC Youth Crime in Context: Arrest & Recidivism - NYC - Mayor's Office of Criminal Justice
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT: JOHN HALL& BRANDEN DUPONT NYC Youth Crime in Context: Arrest & Recidivism Key Data Insights Arrests by Age: Felony, Violent, and Serious Violent Crimes Adults, especially those...
010
jjhall.bsky.social @jjhall.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDow...
youtube.com
Force Science Discussion at the PERF Town Hall, October 19, 2025
YouTube video by Police Executive Research Forum
140
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Jerry Ratcliffe @jerryratcliffe.net · 02/01/2025
Good article in @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social by @katy-pugliese.bsky.social on local impacts of overdose prevention centers in NYC. She cites my work w/ @jjhall.bsky.social that found substantial property crime increases around one of the sites. Link in 2/2 (1/2) www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/on-...
vitalcitynyc.org
Vital City | On Overdose Prevention Centers, Listen to Community Complaints
Policymakers would be wise to listen carefully to neighborhood residents who criticize the facilities.
142
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Vital City @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Those who have taken to calling the criminal justice system the "criminal legal system" should read Greg Berman's new piece in Vital City. www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/the...
001
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Vital City @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Overdose prevention centers are saving lives (as documented in our drug issue vitalcitynyc.org/issues/issue-6). But are we listening closely enough to community concerns about them? In a new Vital City piece, @katy-pugliese.bsky.social puts her ear to the ground. www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/on-...
021
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Jerry Ratcliffe @jerryratcliffe.net · 22/11/2024
What is the ‘Hamsterdam principle”? And is it a reference to 'The Wire'? Read on...
151
Reposted by @jjhall.bsky.social
Vital City @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
This isn’t that complicated: Just because New York City is safer than it was decades ago doesn’t mean it is the safest it’s ever been. In fact, it’s gotten significantly less safe lately in some key respects. www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/the...
021