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Reposted by Joe DeCarolis

Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 04/06/2026

Join us on June 10 for a webinar on AI, energy, and U.S. economic growth and inequality.

Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Thanks to all the co-authors. This paper was a big team effort. @jxjohnson.bsky.social (NC State) @clameron.bsky.social (Sutubra) Michael Blackhurst (U Pitt) Anderson de Queiroz (NC State) @danielposen.bsky.social (U Toronto) @paulijllo.bsky.social (CMU)

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

This analysis assumes data center companies simply bring load to the grid. The price and emissions impacts can be ameliorated if those companies bring their own capacity and/or sign clean energy power purchase agreements.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

The clean energy tax credits (45Y + 48E) in the Inflation Reduction Act would cut the natural gas share from 70% to 41%, with wind (29%) and solar (15%) filling the gap.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

CO₂ rises 9–28% versus a future without data center growth. Mid-demand forecast adds 330 million tons. States with emissions caps (like Virginia under RGGI) import coal power from neighbors, shifting emissions rather than cutting them.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Costs rise 6–29% nationally by 2030 compared to a future without data center growth. But geography matters. Northern Virginia could see costs jump as much as 57%. Cost burden shifts along with the geographic distribution of demand.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

New construction to meet US data center demand in our mid-range scenario: ☀️ 24 GW solar ⚡ 21 GW natural gas 🌬️ 19 GW wind Gas carries 41–76% of new generation. Coal adds -4% to 23%. Increases mostly associated with aging Midwest and Southeast coal plants running harder.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

We modeled 26 U.S. power regions across 13 scenarios varying demand, incentives, natural gas prices, gas turbine costs, and the distribution of data center demand. Data center demand ranges from 10–19% of total U.S. electricity in 2030. We also ran a counterfactual without data center demand.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Note that we created a similar open-source dashboard at EIA, available here: github.com/EIAgov/dash-.... The underlying data includes the Reference case and as many of the side cases as we could scrape together.

github.com

GitHub - EIAgov/dash-benchmark

Contribute to EIAgov/dash-benchmark development by creating an account on GitHub.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Brent and WTI above $100. Strait of Hormuz largely shut down. EIA has the data and expertise to explain what might happen next. They've been quiet so far, but hopefully tomorrow's Short-Term Energy Outlook will offer some insight.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Obviously terrible BUT I keep reminding myself that what has been undone can be redone. The science doesn't change, and eventually... EVENTUALLY... we will realign U.S. policy with the science.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

FYI , the original source of that figure was a 2016 EIA report with the (wordy) title: "Wind and Solar Data and Projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration: Past Performance and Ongoing Enhancements" www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

eia.gov

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

This animation looks similar to the ones I developed and presented at MIT in 2024 when I was EIA Administrator: www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0fL... My explanation for natural gas production begins around the 25:50 mark, followed by crude oil, wind, solar, and CO2 emissions.

youtube.com

Stay humble and prepare for surprises: Lessons for the energy transition with Joseph F. DeCarolis

YouTube video by MIT Energy Initiative

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Yes, the economics are pretty simple: incentivize demand for gasoline and prices will go up. Look no further than EPA's own regulatory impact analysis earlier this year, which cited EIA projections: www.cbsnews.com/news/epa-rul...

cbsnews.com

Repealing rule to curb greenhouse gas emissions will increase gas prices, Trump administration's own analysis finds

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin told CBS News' "The Takeout" that environmental policy can't "strangulate out of existence" energy policy.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Funny story about George Dantzig's formulation of the canonical diet program to test his newly developed simplex algorithm. The lesson? Embed some common sense in the model formulation. Thanks to @bistline.bsky.social for sharing.

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Reposted by Joe DeCarolis

Jeremy Michalek @jmichalek.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Today we submitted our public comment on critical flaws in EPA's rationale for rescinding its authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. This proposed move is a big deal with profound implications for our future. Today's the last day to comment. www.cmu.edu/cit/veg/publ...

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

Excellent piece by @bencasselman.bsky.social on the BLS data revisions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, another federal statistical agency, faces similar data challenges. The accuracy vs timeliness tradeoff is universal: data collected at higher frequency is inherently noisier.

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Reposted by Joe DeCarolis

Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 22/06/2025

And here the timely EIA data (and analysis) on oil trade volumes through the Strait of Hormuz - 20% of global oil consumption: www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

I was happy to participate in this event and explain how the U.S. Energy Information Administration meets energy data needs in the United States. 🔌💡

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Some personal news: This November, I'll be returning to Carnegie Mellon (@cmu.edu) as head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP). I'm honored and excited to help lead EPP into its next chapter. engineering.cmu.edu/news-events/...

engineering.cmu.edu

DeCarolis named head of Engineering and Public Policy

Joseph DeCarolis has been named head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

Wind is hard to model in capacity expansion models because its performance is highly dependent on its spatiotemporal representation. NEMS, like many other models, has a relatively stylized representation of wind resources.

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Reposted by Joe DeCarolis

Rep. Sean Casten @casten.house.gov · 30/04/2025

If you want to lower energy costs for Americans, you must first understand the US energy system. You can't do that without the robust, accurate data the EIA provides. The Trump Administration's haphazard dismantling of the EIA will hurt our ability to increase access to cheap, reliable energy.

reuters.com

Over 100 employees leave US EIA, putting crucial energy data at risk, sources say

The U.S. government's energy statistics arm is set to lose over 100 employees after the Trump administration's latest round of resignation offers, putting at risk some of the most closely watched energy reports globally, three sources told Reuters.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

Last year we also released an open source python dashboard that enables comparisons across AEO editions: github.com/EIAgov/dash-... (Looks like it hasn't been updated with AEO2025 data yet.)

github.com

GitHub - EIAgov/dash-benchmark

Contribute to EIAgov/dash-benchmark development by creating an account on GitHub.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

All credit goes to EIA staff. (I departed EIA on Jan. 20.) The EIA Retrospective Report, released every other year, calculates statistics across previous AEO editions: www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

That's all for now. Again, I appreciate the dedication of EIA staff to produce the AEO under challenging circumstances. And remember EIA's transparency. Don't like a result? Run NEMS with your own assumptions: github.com/EIAgov/NEMS

github.com

GitHub - EIAgov/NEMS

Contribute to EIAgov/NEMS development by creating an account on GitHub.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

That’s a brief overview of some key results. Remember, modeling assumptions were frozen in December 2024. The effects of Trump’s executive orders and tariff policy, among other factors, could have a significant impact on these projections.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

EV sales also hit a hard upper limit around 55% of new sales. I suspect this has to do with the relative economics between the different vehicle classes as well as details in the consumer choice model. In future AEO editions, EIA should explore assumptions that could lead to higher EV deployments.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Finally, here’s a look at electric vehicle sales. Excluding several recent transportation-related regulations has a big impact on electric vehicle (EV) deployment.

Electric vehicle share of new vehicle sales from EIA's Annual Energy Outloook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

You can see from the figure above that electrified transport has a significant impact on electricity demand – note the difference between the Reference case and Alternative Transportation case.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Overall, total electricity generation increases nearly 50% from 2024-2050. This increase is due to the electrification of end-uses, like transportation, as well as increases in existing sources of electricity demand, like data centers.

Total electricity generation from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

And finally, here’s generation from natural gas, which declines over time in most cases as renewables take up an increasing share of generation.

Natural gas-fired generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Here’s nuclear generation. Consistent with past AEO editions, nuclear energy remains relatively flat but with some variation. For example, the Low Oil and Gas Supply case leads to more expensive gas, which incentivizes new nuclear capacity in later years.

Nuclear generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Here’s coal. You can see the effect of the EPA 111d regulations on coal generation – it forces nearly full coal retirement by 2040. Note: “Alternative Electricity” removes those new regulations.

Coal-fired electricity generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Let’s step through the full set of projections for each major source of electricity generation. Here’s renewables. (Unfortunately, wind and solar are lumped together in the tables.) Note the marked increases in renewable generation and slowdown in later years when the IRA tax credits expire.

Renewables (wind + solar) generation from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Here’s a view into the electric sector, with the AEO2023 Reference case, current Reference case, and Alternative Electricity case. Note the consistently high renewables generation, between 60-70% across these three cases.

Electricity generation by source from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

So as renewable penetration increases and end uses are electrified, all else equal, it decreases the need for thermal-based primary energy sources.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

EIA changed its primary energy accounting for noncombustible renewables: www.eia.gov/totalenergy/... In AEO2025, 1 unit of solar or wind electricity = 1 unit of primary energy. So 1 unit of solar or wind displacing 1 unit of fossil electricity reduces fossil primary energy by 2-3 units (2nd Law).

eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and AnalysisU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Pub

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Here's U.S. primary energy consumption. You can see substantial reductions from AEO2023 and through 2040. What’s going on? Renewables, mostly solar and wind, are an increasing share of the electricity mix. End-use electrification is also increasing. What does that have to do with primary energy?

Total primary energy from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

The 2050 Reference case emissions are 17% lower in AEO2025 than AEO2023. It’s largely due to the IRA, EPA regulations, and continued cost declines in renewables and batteries. Emissions tend to flat-line around 2040 as IRA credits expire and growing energy demands exert influence.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

OK, now let’s dig into the results, starting with energy-related CO2 emissions.

Energy-related CO2 emissions from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Each figure includes the results across different cases. Insights should always be based on carefully examining the full range of outcomes. You can’t really learn anything useful from a single projection.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

In the charts below, the Reference case is the bold black line. Do NOT interpret the Reference case as a forecast. Think of it as an experimental control – it’s what happens under nominal conditions. Read the Administrator’s Forward from AEO2023 if you want my full take: www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

eia.gov

Narrative - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Compared with AEO2023, this latest edition includes the major changes to NEMS referenced above, updates to end-use demands and technology cost projections, and changes in policy, such as EPA’s April 2024 revisions to CO2 standards under Section 111 of the CAA.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

I’ve included the AEO2023 Reference case in the charts since it’s been two years since the last AEO was released. When I was Administrator, I made the decision to focus on model updates in 2024 and skip AEO2024: www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook 2025 Model Development - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

In addition to the Reference case and core side cases that EIA typically runs, they also included separate “Alternative Electricity” and “Alternate Transportation” cases, which remove some Biden-era regulations. They provide a useful point of comparison.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Keep in mind that the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), used to produce the AEO, is complex. Assumptions were frozen in December 2024 in order to complete the model runs. So the results reflect an uncertain world with Biden-era policies fully intact.

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