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Joe DeCarolis

@jfdecarolis.bsky.social
9.2K followers 253 following 140 posts

Focused on applying state-of-the-art data systems, models, and analysis to inform decision making on energy. Professor at NC State University; served as the 10th Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Personal account.

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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Finally, here’s a look at electric vehicle sales. Excluding several recent transportation-related regulations has a big impact on electric vehicle (EV) deployment.
Electric vehicle share of new vehicle sales from EIA's Annual Energy Outloook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Overall, total electricity generation increases nearly 50% from 2024-2050. This increase is due to the electrification of end-uses, like transportation, as well as increases in existing sources of electricity demand, like data centers.
Total electricity generation from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
And finally, here’s generation from natural gas, which declines over time in most cases as renewables take up an increasing share of generation.
Natural gas-fired generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Here’s nuclear generation. Consistent with past AEO editions, nuclear energy remains relatively flat but with some variation. For example, the Low Oil and Gas Supply case leads to more expensive gas, which incentivizes new nuclear capacity in later years.
Nuclear generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Here’s coal. You can see the effect of the EPA 111d regulations on coal generation – it forces nearly full coal retirement by 2040. Note: “Alternative Electricity” removes those new regulations.
Coal-fired electricity generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Let’s step through the full set of projections for each major source of electricity generation. Here’s renewables. (Unfortunately, wind and solar are lumped together in the tables.) Note the marked increases in renewable generation and slowdown in later years when the IRA tax credits expire.
Renewables (wind + solar) generation from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Here’s a view into the electric sector, with the AEO2023 Reference case, current Reference case, and Alternative Electricity case. Note the consistently high renewables generation, between 60-70% across these three cases.
Electricity generation by source from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Here's U.S. primary energy consumption. You can see substantial reductions from AEO2023 and through 2040. What’s going on? Renewables, mostly solar and wind, are an increasing share of the electricity mix. End-use electrification is also increasing. What does that have to do with primary energy?
Total primary energy from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
OK, now let’s dig into the results, starting with energy-related CO2 emissions.
Energy-related CO2 emissions from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
So what are we doing about it at EIA? In the short-term, using our existing models, we’re examining a wider range of future scenarios and applying cones of uncertainty to better characterize the range of possible future outcomes.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
These types of surprises are not unique to EIA. Developing energy projections is hard. We’re all subject to cognitive heuristics (i.e., mental shortcuts). We tend to anchor on recent experience and data and do not think expansively enough about the future.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Surprise #3: Declining CO2 emissions Total CO2 emissions reflects the net effect of cheap natural gas and renewables deployment, which led to the accelerated retirement of coal. Here's total energy-related CO2 emissions in million metric tons using AEO editions 2005-2023:
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Here’s projected total solar PV generation in terawatt-hours (TWh) using AEO editions 2005-2023:
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Here’s projected wind generation in terawatt-hours (TWh) using AEO editions 2005-2023:
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Also, for wind, the production tax credit (PTC) lapsed multiple times over the last couple of decades, and EIA’s strict assumption of current laws and regulations means that we often missed renewals of the PTC that affected the economics of wind.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Surprise #2: Rapid cost declines in wind and solar PV EIA projected capital costs for wind and solar were too high, as indicated here.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Here’s projected U.S. crude oil production in million barrels per day using AEO editions 2005-2023:
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Here’s projected U.S. dry natural gas production in trillion cubic feet using AEO editions 2005-2023: (all modeled cases; black line is actual)
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Thus long-term energy models should not be used to forecast. Rather, they should be used to produce insights conditioned on an assessment of future uncertainty.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 31/10/2024
The rationale for developing a new open source model is outlined in this working paper: www.eia.gov/beta/working... TL;DR To address emerging energy issues, we need a next generation model that is modular, flexible, transparent, and robust.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 31/10/2024
The rationale for developing this new open source framework is outlined in this working paper. www.eia.gov/beta/working...
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 29/10/2024
The Sankey is a new and improved version of the classic EIA "spaghetti diagram"
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 29/10/2024
Behold, EIA developed a new Sankey diagram to represent the U.S. energy system! 🔌💡 www.eia.gov/totalenergy/... 🧵👇
EIA's new Sankey diagram.
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 11/10/2024
This week, EIA released its Winter Fuels Outlook, which estimates household energy expenditures for the upcoming winter. tl;dr: Expenditures are expected to be about the same as last winter. Lower prices compensate for a slightly colder winter. 🔌💡 See more here: www.eia.gov/outlooks/ste...
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 13/09/2024
In an effort to increase transparency, we have developed a python-based benchmarking tool to compare our AEO projections against real world outcomes. It includes all past cases and allows you to visualize the pathways.
screenshot of the benchmarking app
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 15/05/2024
Thanks Danny. As a side note, that 1992 NAS report had so many great recommendations that are still relevant today. It’s definitely informed my own thinking. For example, here’s their recommendation on assessing uncertainty:
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Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 27/03/2024
EIA still provides that figure as a regular feature of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): www.eia.gov/outlooks/ste... The figure includes the 95% confidence interval associated with the NYMEX futures strip. From the March edition of the STEO:
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