Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Finally, here’s a look at electric vehicle sales. Excluding several recent transportation-related regulations has a big impact on electric vehicle (EV) deployment. 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Overall, total electricity generation increases nearly 50% from 2024-2050. This increase is due to the electrification of end-uses, like transportation, as well as increases in existing sources of electricity demand, like data centers. 183
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025And finally, here’s generation from natural gas, which declines over time in most cases as renewables take up an increasing share of generation. 110
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Here’s nuclear generation. Consistent with past AEO editions, nuclear energy remains relatively flat but with some variation. For example, the Low Oil and Gas Supply case leads to more expensive gas, which incentivizes new nuclear capacity in later years. 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Here’s coal. You can see the effect of the EPA 111d regulations on coal generation – it forces nearly full coal retirement by 2040. Note: “Alternative Electricity” removes those new regulations. 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Let’s step through the full set of projections for each major source of electricity generation. Here’s renewables. (Unfortunately, wind and solar are lumped together in the tables.) Note the marked increases in renewable generation and slowdown in later years when the IRA tax credits expire. 200
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Here’s a view into the electric sector, with the AEO2023 Reference case, current Reference case, and Alternative Electricity case. Note the consistently high renewables generation, between 60-70% across these three cases. 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025Here's U.S. primary energy consumption. You can see substantial reductions from AEO2023 and through 2040. What’s going on? Renewables, mostly solar and wind, are an increasing share of the electricity mix. End-use electrification is also increasing. What does that have to do with primary energy? 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 17/04/2025OK, now let’s dig into the results, starting with energy-related CO2 emissions. 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024So what are we doing about it at EIA? In the short-term, using our existing models, we’re examining a wider range of future scenarios and applying cones of uncertainty to better characterize the range of possible future outcomes. 110
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024These types of surprises are not unique to EIA. Developing energy projections is hard. We’re all subject to cognitive heuristics (i.e., mental shortcuts). We tend to anchor on recent experience and data and do not think expansively enough about the future. 110
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Surprise #3: Declining CO2 emissions Total CO2 emissions reflects the net effect of cheap natural gas and renewables deployment, which led to the accelerated retirement of coal. Here's total energy-related CO2 emissions in million metric tons using AEO editions 2005-2023: 120
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Here’s projected total solar PV generation in terawatt-hours (TWh) using AEO editions 2005-2023: 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Here’s projected wind generation in terawatt-hours (TWh) using AEO editions 2005-2023: 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Also, for wind, the production tax credit (PTC) lapsed multiple times over the last couple of decades, and EIA’s strict assumption of current laws and regulations means that we often missed renewals of the PTC that affected the economics of wind. 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Surprise #2: Rapid cost declines in wind and solar PV EIA projected capital costs for wind and solar were too high, as indicated here. 110
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Here’s projected U.S. crude oil production in million barrels per day using AEO editions 2005-2023: 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Here’s projected U.S. dry natural gas production in trillion cubic feet using AEO editions 2005-2023: (all modeled cases; black line is actual) 100
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 25/11/2024Thus long-term energy models should not be used to forecast. Rather, they should be used to produce insights conditioned on an assessment of future uncertainty. 120
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 31/10/2024The rationale for developing a new open source model is outlined in this working paper: www.eia.gov/beta/working... TL;DR To address emerging energy issues, we need a next generation model that is modular, flexible, transparent, and robust. 141
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 31/10/2024The rationale for developing this new open source framework is outlined in this working paper. www.eia.gov/beta/working... 000
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 29/10/2024The Sankey is a new and improved version of the classic EIA "spaghetti diagram" 181
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 29/10/2024Behold, EIA developed a new Sankey diagram to represent the U.S. energy system! 🔌💡 www.eia.gov/totalenergy/... 🧵👇 1315349
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 11/10/2024This week, EIA released its Winter Fuels Outlook, which estimates household energy expenditures for the upcoming winter. tl;dr: Expenditures are expected to be about the same as last winter. Lower prices compensate for a slightly colder winter. 🔌💡 See more here: www.eia.gov/outlooks/ste... 040
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 13/09/2024In an effort to increase transparency, we have developed a python-based benchmarking tool to compare our AEO projections against real world outcomes. It includes all past cases and allows you to visualize the pathways. 130
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 15/05/2024Thanks Danny. As a side note, that 1992 NAS report had so many great recommendations that are still relevant today. It’s definitely informed my own thinking. For example, here’s their recommendation on assessing uncertainty: 120
Joe DeCarolis @jfdecarolis.bsky.social · 27/03/2024EIA still provides that figure as a regular feature of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): www.eia.gov/outlooks/ste... The figure includes the 95% confidence interval associated with the NYMEX futures strip. From the March edition of the STEO: 230