Sign in

Joseph Elliott

@jelliott94.bsky.social
1.9K followers 2.7K following 262 posts

Lead analyst at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social Posting about politics, poverty, housing, benefits and work. Northern Irish, views my own.

PostsRepliesMedia
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/92...
eprints.whiterose.ac.uk
000 0
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
An annoying - a typo, meant to say 'early 1900s'! Figures taken from here:
120 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Read more in our briefing published today www.jrf.org.uk/housing/what...
jrf.org.uk
What’s really happening to the size of the private rented sector?
Analysis shows consolidation, not contraction, of the private rented sector.
051 5
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
And the evidence suggests that this is an outcome that renters themselves would prefer. Only a minority of private renters have a preference to remain as private renters over the next year – the majority would prefer to be in another tenure.
141 4
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
And while pressures are often felt most acutely in lack of supply of rental homes specifically, we argue the demand for housing should be met by expanding the supply of homes overall, not the PRS specifically – with greater outflow from private renting to owner occupation and social renting.
110 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
None of this is to say that there isn’t a genuine problem of under-supply of housing – plenty of measure demonstrate this is the case. The latest English Housing Survey for example finds 1.5 million concealed households across England who’d prefer to rent or own but are unable to afford to do so.
111 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
While the official figures show the sector hasn’t shrunk, it is true that the shape of the private rental market is changing. As above – increasing numbers of landlords are now operating as companies, while increasingly properties are owned by larger landlords.
110 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Handelsbanken’s 2026 Property Investor report: “The predicted exodus of landlords simply hasn’t happened – and it doesn’t look like it will.” Hamptons concludes the scale of landlord sell-off has been overstated, and the number of rental homes has remained broadly unchanged.
100 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Recent industry reports themselves conclude that the predicted exodus of landlords and of private rental homes hasn’t materialised. TwentyCi asked: “If 834,800 properties have left the sector, why is rental supply rising?”
120 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
However TwentyCi report the inflow of properties onto the market to let increased by 17% in the year to May-June 2026 – at its highest for 7 years. Other measures find demand for rentals relative to supply remains above pre-covid levels, but are returning to more normal levels
110 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Numbers of rental listings reflect both the overall number of private rentals and the rate of tenancy turnover. Even as official estimates suggest the stock of private rentals continue to grow, longer tenancies mean we’d expect to see fewer properties coming available to rent.
133 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
3. Reduced rental listings This is another measure used as evidence of shrinking private rental supply, however the number of new rental listings isn’t a proxy for overall private rented sector size.
120 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
In short – analyses that conclude a shrinking private rental sector by tracking transactions alone provide an incomplete picture and miss other ways in which property flows into the private rental market.
220 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Moreover, the Build-to-Rent sector – while still a relatively small segment of the market, continues to grow, with 157k homes built by 2026 and 154k more in the pipeline – another important inflow to the PRS that won’t be reflected in transactions analysis.
121 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Data on EPCs appears to corroborate an increase in conversion of homes from owner occupied to rental (likely without transaction); numbers of owner-occupied homes getting an EPC for conversion to rental doubled between 2015-17 to 2023-25. Not a stock measure – but direction of travel is indicative.
131 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The English Private Landlord Survey shows that only half of landlord’s acquired their first rental by purpose-buying a property to let it out. 38% converted a home bought for another reason, and 7% inherited or were gifted a property that became their first rental.
132 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Which suggests these measures are missing other inflows to the PRS.
110 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Other measures are more useful– tracking sales and purchases by landlords, and flows of transacted property between tenures. However these measures showed greater numbers of sales than purchases by landlords across years where official stats showed the sector continuing to grow.
110 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
2. Headline exit and landlord transactions statistics There is a lot of muddiness in the reporting here. Some of the most widely cited stats on here are actually just ‘exit’ stats that count only one side of the ledger.
121 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Behind the headlines – in 2024 company landlords were 5x more likely to say they intended to *expand* their property portfolios than individual landlords And in a 2026 survey 84% of professional property investors say they intended to expand their portfolios over the next year.
110 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
So what is driving the ‘shrinking’ narrative? 1. Landlord sentiment surveys Across different sources these show a genuine trend in increasing numbers of landlords stating they intend to sell up – but they haven’t coincided with actual sector shrinkage.
132 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Together mortgage lending stats and the HMRC data may describe a slowdown in one financing route for a segment of the sector, but are not on their own evidence that the overall stock of PRS homes was shrinking. Again - official data suggests the sector continued to grow to 2025.
121 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The latest EPLS shows just over half landlords expanding their portfolios did so using a Buy-to-Let mortgage. And incorporation may also mean a substantial chunk of borrowing for rental property acquisition happens beyond the 'lending to individuals' captured in MLAR.
121 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
And HMRC property rental statistics show a small decline in the numbers of individual (unincorporated) landlords from 2.91m in 2023/24 to 2.88m by 2024/25. However, this decline in numbers of unincorporated landlords was more than offset by the growth in incorporated landlords.
143 4
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Mortgage lending statistics also provide a useful lens; - An estimated 40% of PRS homes are financed with mortgages - New BTL advances halved between 2022 and 2023, but climbed since. - Aggregate value of BTL mortgages declined 7% from peak, but remains higher than pre-2020
120 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The number of private rented sector tenancy deposits in protected schemes is also at the highest ever. This probably isn’t a good proxy for sector size at the moment, but if the number of deposits shrinks in future it could be an indicator of the sector shrinking.
120 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
-- Official stock estimates show the number of private rented sector homes in England surpassed 5 million homes in 2025 for the first time in decades*, and the sector added around 45k homes a year on average since 2021. (*There were over 5m private rented homes in the early 1990s)
254 5
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
So what’s driving the shrinking narrative, and what does the data actually tell us? ⬇️
120 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
We’ve been hearing for years that the private rented sector has been shrinking, claims which have gone into overdrive since the Renters Rights Act. But the official estimates of the size of the private rented sector shows it continued to grow through to 2025.
22010 20
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
We also argue the scale of the affordability crisis warrants the introduction of rent controls in the private rented sector. Read the Minimum Income Standard report here ⬇️ www.jrf.org.uk/income-savin...
jrf.org.uk
A Minimum Income Standard for the United Kingdom in 2026
The Minimum Income Standard (MIS) provides a vision of the living standards that we, as a society, agree everyone in the UK should be able to meet. This report from the Centre for Research in Social P...
061 6
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
High rents in the private rented sector are undoing Government’s efforts to help families with the cost of living. We clearly need to massively ramp up delivery of social and affordable homes – which government has committed to doing.
232 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Long standing structural pressures have resulted in a shortage of social rent homes and growing reliance on the private rented sector. Shelter estimates it would take 119 to clear current social housing waiting lists. Members of the public no longer view social housing as a realistic option.
131 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
For the first time in 18 years, household budgets include the annual cost of renting privately for all household types – bumping up housing costs within budgets for some groups by around 50% or £8,000 more a year..
121 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The new Minimum Income Standard is out- the income needed to meet a standard of living we, as a society, agree that everyone in the UK should be able to meet. This year the story of MIS is predominantly a housing one; reliance on the private rented sector has bumped budgets up⬇️
143 4
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Will Stronge @wstronge.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
In short: you can have decent rent controls whilst *reducing* the likelihood of landlord sell offs (and therefore evictions). The government's current position is untenable.
021 2
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Maya SH @msingerhobbs.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Great turn-out today at our parliamentary drop-in on rent controls! Some really productive conversations with MPs and staffers Lovely to host it with @jelliott94.bsky.social, @georgebangham.bsky.social, @bethstratford.bsky.social, @rachaelhenry.bsky.social and Grace Brown 1/2
Five people stand in front of some pull-up banners holding a sign that says "I support fairer rents"
1163 16
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Francisca Ladouch @franladouch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
1/ ❓What happens when you get sick or have a baby? For millions in the UK, these life events can quickly lead to financial insecurity. Today, my colleague @meriahlberg.bsky.social and I are publishing a new @jrf-uk.bsky.social report on the UK's in-work protections. 🧵
153 5
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
📆 27th May at 10am Join us and @Autonomy_Inst for a discussion of last week's rent controls briefing! We'll set out the findings, including the scale of returns many landlords generate, as well as the impact of interest rates on these profits. Sign up: bit.ly/49a5qlx
An advert for a webinar titled "How tax reform would make rent controls feasible to deliver." It features the JRF logo and "End the rent squeeze" branding. The background shows part of a residential building and an empty kids playground. The webinar is scheduled for Wednesday, May 27, 2026, from 10:00 am to 11:00 am.
054 5
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Shelter @sheltercharity.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
New research from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has found the majority of landlords make above average rates of return AND that limiting rent increases in England could save the government more than £600m a year by 2030. Makes you think, right? 👉🏽 www.jrf.org.uk/housing/how-...
Reads 'Psst... new research on landlord profits' with the side eye emoji
193 9
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Report on landlord tax and rent controls from us here: www.jrf.org.uk/housing/how-...
jrf.org.uk
How tax reform would make rent controls feasible to deliver
This first report from our Ending the Rent Squeeze programme shows combining rent control and tax reform is an impactful, viable way of bringing down rent costs.
010 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Which we think is the better outcome. (And with the usual caveats that we need a big increase in supply of housing generally, and we recognise the PRS serves an important role for many renters) Landlord Zone write up here: www.landlordzone.co.uk/news/higher-...
landlordzone.co.uk
Higher tax bills deprive PRS of 2.2 million homes
News - Helen Gregory - Private renters would have had an extra 2.2 million properties to choose from if the market had grown at pre-2016 rates, says Hamptons.
120 2
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
"Private renters would have had an extra 2.2 million rental properties to choose from if the market had grown at pre-2016 rates": LandlordZone. Pretty devastating? But it precipitated a rebound in home ownership; people paying their own mortgage rather than their landlords..
130 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
And a thread from me about it too ⬇️ bsky.app/profile/jell...
030 3
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Read our report on rent controls and tax reform (which I believe Zack is citing below) ⬇️ bsky.app/profile/jrf-...
171 7
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Abby Jitendra @abbyabhaya.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The debate about rent controls is too often about negative impacts (which need to be taken seriously). But can landlords actually afford to bear more financial risk than they are bearing now? New research suggests yes - important reading for policymakers.
033 3
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Renters' Reform Coalition @rentersreformco.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Powerful new research from @jrf-uk.bsky.social demonstrates how a rent cap could save renters over a grand a year (and the government £600m). Unchecked rents are driving renters out of their homes. These are serious proposals - the government should pay attention. inews.co.uk/news/how-ren...
1106 10
Reposted by Joseph Elliott
Beth Stratford @bethstratford.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Finally, we have data to show vast majority of landlords earn supernormal returns: even with high interest rates, 63% outperform a 60:40 equity-gilt portfolio & 71% beat the broader real estate sector. Proud to have co-authored this with @autonomy-institute.bsky.social autonomy.work/portfolio/th...
33624 36
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
And the Autonomy report, here ⬇️
000 0
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Read our report here ⬇️ www.jrf.org.uk/housing/how-...
jrf.org.uk
How tax reform would make rent controls feasible to deliver
This first report from our Ending the Rent Squeeze programme shows combining rent control and tax reform is an impactful, viable way of bringing down rent costs.
110 1
Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
And what could a well-designed rent control deliver? Capping increases by inflation could save the average renter over £1,000 a year within six years. It would free up housing benefit spend to fund an annual uprating of LHA, and still deliver savings to Treasury.
120 2