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Jeff Horwich

@jeffhorwich.bsky.social
76 followers 10 following 68 posts

Senior Econ Writer at Minneapolis Fed. If I venture opinions, they are solely personal.

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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Without Ariel Pakes it’s hard to imagine the field of industrial organization (IO) economics. Along the way he has directly influenced GM, the DOJ, the CPI... The acronym now in his sights: the FDA. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social has our interview w/ @harvard.edu economist. bit.ly/47kCtBS #EconSky
Headshot of Ariel Pakes
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Getting my first look at the questions from registrants for next week's live @minneapolisfed.bsky.social convo. 🎙️ Thoughtful Qs like what to make of falling labor force participation, how under-employment fits in, and whether it's a good or bad thing that workers are sitting tight in jobs. Love it.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Next Conversations w/ the Fed (Oct. 1) is open for registration! This time: Hiring, quitting, wages... minneapolisfed.org/events/2026/... Top @minneapolisfed.bsky.social labor market economists take on your Qs and dig behind the unempl. rate. Join me w/ @amandamichaud.bsky.social & Simon Mongey.
minneapolisfed.org
Conversations with the Fed: Decoding Today’s Confounding Labor Market | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Headwinds for AI from many directions... community pushback, worry about human subjugation. Also: prices.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Fascinating household behavior at heart of this paper, otherwise targeted at a specialized audience. When you receive money, the money itself alters how you respond to being given money. 🤔 Hand-to-mouth suddenly becomes partial saver. Ergo: Can't estimate spending effect based on the prior state!
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
No, this US Information sector payroll slump is not what you thought 🫵 Let me explain ☝️ en.econreporter.com/58257/chatgpt-a…
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
New from @neilmehrotra.bsky.social and Michael Waugh: "Initially delayed, the pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has arrived." They estimate tariffs now adding up to 0.4 pp of elevated core inflation, similar to the impact of demand for AI technology. bit.ly/4gW8ZzP
An image of a financial report cover titled "Initially delayed, the pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has arrived." The subtitle notes that by mid-2026, tariffs and AI factors will contribute to elevated core inflation. The date is August 28, 2026. Authors listed are Neil Mehrotra and Michael E. Waugh, with their positions mentioned below their names. A city skyline is faintly visible in the background.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I suspected it was significant, but that memory chip hockey stick is insane. The world has been AI-crazy since 2023, but chip prices floated along through all of 2025. 2026 has been a different animal.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
AI can solve some pretty tough problems. But can it overcome the brutal reality of supply and demand? @jeffhorwich.bsky.social wraps up the latest producer price data in this episode of The Basket. (For his deeper look at AI and the economy ➡️ bit.ly/4fDFCSy) #EconSky
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
@wsj.com should just yield to the inevitable and start calling this weekend interview feature "Do They Eat Breakfast?"
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
July Fed minutes out today feature a whopping 26 references to AI! (Up from 23 in June, but who's counting?🧐) Clearly on minds, and a hot topic around the table at FOMC. What factors are they likely weighing? I took a look in this recent deep-dive for @minneapolisfed.bsky.social ➡️
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Not a hot take, but my in-depth take on a hot topic: www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026... via @minneapolisfed.bsky.social
minneapolisfed.org
How is AI influencing interest rates? Investment, productivity, prices, and more | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Artificial intelligence might yet change the world. For monetary policy, the focus is on today’s economy
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Short and sweet. My own upcoming article is not the former, but I hope still somewhat the latter!
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Trade & tariffs: The economics news that keeps on giving. Format: Two smart guests, no slide deck, focus on the economics. Register and join us! Questions welcome ahead of time or during the event.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
When I sat down to draft this script, an anecdote near the end of the Beige Book caught me: Farmers can't get loans because profits are poor, so they are selling off the stockpiles of crops they were holding in hopes that profits would improve. Not a good dynamic in farm country.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Registration is live for our online trade econ conversation August 4! Excited to have two excellent @minneapolisfed.bsky.social research economists whose work I have had the pleasure to write about. Looking forward to many great questions from our audience. www.minneapolisfed.org/events/2026/...
minneapolisfed.org
Conversations with the Fed: Unboxing the New Economics of Trade | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Policymakers voice constant appreciation for the "resilient" job market. Yesterday I did an informational interview w/ an impressive recent grad from a top college, scouring for jobs in her field, hearing nothing from app after app. Just moved back home. Climate for many young workers now is scary.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Respondents to our Business Pulse survey are part of the monetary policymaking process. Responses gathered help inform our Bank president as he considers the appropriate path of monetary policy. Are you a Ninth District business owner/executive? Sign up here to participate: bit.ly/4kKn9mC
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Are stocks overpriced? Macroeconomic data reveals insights invisible in earnings reports. While earnings might look low, free cash flow to investors has surged alongside valuations. Dive into ongoing research of @heathcote.bsky.social, Fabrizio Perri and Andrew Atkeson. bit.ly/4dWXwgJ
A graphic from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis titled "From price-to-earnings to 'free cash flow'". It mentions a shift in perspective making stocks look less overpriced. There is a "New Research Brief" label.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Naturally we hear a lot about "core PCE." After all, the Fed needs to have a consistent benchmark when discussing its inflation target. But there are many flavors of inflation data, and in different moments they can provide the insights policymakers need.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Come for the animations, sound effects, and too-clever pneumonic devices -- stay for the economics.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
#Minnesota auto #insurance rates really surged in recent years, and are still pretty high relative to other states. What happened? The answer includes “billion dollar” storms and higher wages at body shops, according to Senior Writer @tuuyentran.bsky.social. bit.ly/4tZ1CLp
Illustration of a red arrow rising sharply over a map of the United States, with a car on top. The arrow is pointed toward Michigan. In the background, stormy clouds and lightning are visible.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Finding: If not for demand for all kinds of materials related to AI data centers, U.S. trade deficit would have been 16% smaller last year. Economist Mike Waugh used AI to sort 18K+ product codes to track AI-related imports & exports. bit.ly/4tSkInp
The image is a graphic from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. It features a title stating: "Much more than microchips: Trade soars in AI-related goods, driving U.S. trade deficit." The design includes a blue background with a textured diagonal stripe and a green label that says "New Research Brief."
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
How are Fed economists thinking about oil, war, and current policy tensions? New this a.m. from @minneapolisfed.bsky.social : www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026...
minneapolisfed.org
How long can we "look through" the Iran war commodity shock? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Neil Mehrotra on oil futures, monetary policy uncertainty, and the long-term slide into resource nationalism
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Challenging paper, lots going on, but very cool once I got a sense of it. And a reminder that government debt default can be slow or fast, obvious or quiet.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
New research at the intersection of sovereign debt, inflation & information frictions. Our Marco Bassetto & Jason Hall w/ @cgalli6.bsky.social model how news travels slowly when a gov't borrows in own currency, while others face the harsh judgment of bond traders. bit.ly/4wi5qcX
The image is a research brief cover from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, featuring the text: "For governments that borrow in their own currency, a less‑informed public buys time." The design includes blue and gray sections with the words "NEW RESEARCH BRIEF" on the right side.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Provocative math: Americans have "bequeathable wealth" likely equal to 500% of GDP, if not more. (www.wsj.com/articles/the...) The entire U.S. government debt just passed 100% of GDP. Could a one-time wealth tax, in theory, wipe out the debt and still leave plenty for heirs?
wsj.com
The Great $110 Trillion Wealth Transfer Won’t Happen Any Time Soon
Americans 55 and up control most wealth, and many of them have decades of living left.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
New #BeigeBook recap video is out! 📣 Overall, economic activity in the Ninth District has risen slightly since the last report, but we also heard from businesses who expressed concerns about rising input costs, freight issues, and labor concerns. Full report: bit.ly/4cmZw1a
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
This was a very large paper that bridges 400 years of economic thought. But such a fun one! Hope my new research brief gets some people in the door to experience Jim's way of thinking and his passion for this topic.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Minnesota is sometimes derided as a high-tax state, but not when it comes to our gas tax. MN prices ~14% below nat'l average (taxes one of a few factors). In moments like these, states like AK, FL, OR, NV show trade-off involved with having no income tax. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Maps: How Much Have Gas Prices Risen Across The U.S.?
Here is a county-level look at where drivers are facing the highest costs.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
How did forecasters miss the post-pandemic inflation surge? How was the U.S. policy response better or worse than elsewhere? Guido Lorenzoni of Chicago Booth guided our panel through this essential discussion, now featured in our Quarterly Review. bit.ly/4sg6POQ
The image is a cover for a publication titled "The Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences of Inflation" by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. It features a blue gradient background with the names Donald Kohn, Guido Lorenzoni, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Mark Watson. The letters "QR" and the words "Quarterly Review" are prominent on the right side.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Where can one find a large enough "K" in the Twin Cities to squat next to for economic engagement purposes? A Kwik Trip in the suburbs? A ground-level Burger King sign? The answer was right there on my daily commute out of downtown...
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
It feels awfully "K-shaped" out there, to many. But the available data on U.S. consumers are far from unanimous on the K-shaped economy. Senior economics writer @jeffhorwich.bsky.social assembles the evidence for your consideration. Read his article here: bit.ly/4bEbIdo
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
The idea of the "K-shaped economy" seems to be everywhere lately. But is it in the data? Senior Econ Writer @jeffhorwich.bsky.social set off in pursuit of the "K," pulling together available sources on U.S. consumers. The upshot? The K-shaped trend is far from clear. bit.ly/4bEbIdo
An abstract image depicting dollar bills and a K shape with up and down arrows
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Thinking about the K-shaped economy. Was expecting Consumer Expenditures release would help clinch the story. Instead, I went down a rabbit hole trying to find where it actually showed up in the data! 😄https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/have-us-consumers-gone-k-shaped-a-review-of-the-data
minneapolisfed.org
Have U.S. consumers gone “K-shaped”? A review of the data | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Competing measures defy direct comparison, but available evidence suggests the story is not so simple
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Latest @atlantafed.org wage growth tracker printing today at 3.7% vs. 3% for core PCE (new numbers tomorrow). Wage inflation often gradually outruns after a surge, so the catch-up continues. Restraining prices back to 2% target would speed it up even more. www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
atlantafed.org
Wage Growth Tracker
The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker edged up to 3.7 percent in February from 3.6 percent the prior month. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker also edged up in February, to 3.6 percent, wh...
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Often I have the gratifying experience of beginning with a paper I find almost impenetrable on first read (no fault of the authors--just tough stuff!) but fighting my way to understand the meaning and significance of the work, to arrive at a summary that 🤞 lets others in as well.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
How has our district's economy been uniquely affected by current events? Our team spoke to businesses and employers across the region and brings those insights to our latest #BeigeBook report and video. Find the full report here: www.minneapolisfed.org/beige-book-r…
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Gov. Waller this a.m.: "Jobs last year [were] 181,000 and that’s going to get revised down, trust me. 2.9 million people entered the labor force despite the immigration [drop], OK?" Connection to my recent vid: Off-the-sidelines flow pumping workers in (2mil in Jan.) in the face of stagnant demand.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Been waiting for fresh labor flows data to see if the "back in the job hunt" trend I wrote about last year is still a thing. It is. Maybe not the biggest factor affecting the labor market right now, but notable (and counterintuitive to see more people getting back in the game when hiring is weak).
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Massive revision to 2025 employment growth raises big questions about the huge drumroll & resources expended by media to cover each month's jobs numbers. All of that effort appears meaningless now that the year's job gains were revised down by 69%. Is the monthly data any use at all to policymakers?
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Alongside modest job creation, the new jobs numbers show # of Americans coming off the sidelines to look for work hit a multi-year high (~2 million)--a force pushing up on unemployment. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social recently looked at who's getting back in the hunt. bit.ly/48THtxH
A person smiling for a selfie next to their car; an illustration of several individuals looking at a "Now Hiring" poster.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Designing a better measure to capture the overall burden of tariffs. 🧐 Great new paper I had the pleasure to write up.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
At each horizon, inflation expectations appear to be stabilizing around 3 percent. Bond markets might be "smarter," and recent history shows consumers err on the high side on this question. Still, it's not exactly what you'd like to see when 2 percent is the target.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
For now, at least, the nice irony of Spotify's new AI playlist tool is that you can use it effectively to ban AI music and ghost artists from your stream. Use AI to thwart Spotify's attempt to dilute our listening with cheap-or-zero-royalty playlist fodder--yay!
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
If you're watching @minneapolisfed.bsky.social's @neilmehrotra.bsky.social on @brookings.edu this morning, here's a nontechnical summary of the research: "The optimal way for a central bank to regard housing inflation? Ignore it." Link there to the formal paper!🏘️ minneapolisfed.org/article/2024...
minneapolisfed.org
The optimal way for a central bank to regard housing inflation? Ignore it | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
When housing supply does not respond to demand, research suggests monetary policy disregard shelter in its inflation target
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
New U.S. trade data for Nov. 2025: Trade deficit (goods and services) almost doubles from October to $57 billion. Census notes largest ever % monthly increase in trade deficit in goods. Just one month, but a reversal of prior trend toward lower deficit. census.gov/foreign-trad...
A line chart with two lines for the monthly U.S. trade deficit and a three-month moving average.
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Reposted by Jeff Horwich
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Jennifer N. has been getting back into the job hunt after a long break from the labor market. She's not the only one: 6 million Americans got off the sidelines (and into unemployment) in 2025-Q3, a big jump. But what a labor market! @jeffhorwich.bsky.social has more. bit.ly/48THtxH
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
New article on a paper recently presented at our @oiginstitute.bsky.social research conference. Tremendous dataset they are unpacking.
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Jeff Horwich @jeffhorwich.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Today's jobs data: Unemployment rate 📈to 4.6%, long-term unemployment remains elevated. Part of what's going on: Rising flows of people outside the labor force coming off the sidelines and entering unemployment. My latest @minneapolisfed.bsky.social ➡️ www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025...
A line chart. The line labeled flow from not-in-the-labor-force into unemployment is rising. A line for the U.S. hiring rate is falling.
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