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Julia Coronado

@jc-econ.bsky.social
40K followers 1K following 1.3K posts

Founder MPP (yeah you know me), UT Austin Prof, former chief economist various financial firms, Fed economist, Prez NABE. Passionate about family, macro, cats and freedom

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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 1h
Outgoing @nabe-econ.bsky.social president @gregdaco.bsky.social delivers an inspiring talk on the role of economists in a world shifting from demand to supply driven—navigate not eliminate uncertainty w/ humility, curiosity, honesty and some quant skills & rigor at #NABE2026
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 3h
Two young pups @kyla.bsky.social & Kevin’s Gordon of Schwab help us olds understand the vibecession moderated by incoming @nabe-econ.bsky.social president Mike Horrigan at #NABE2026 price levels, housing affordability, giving up on the future & a dose of mystery fuel the disconnect b/w data & vibes
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 6h
Cleveland Fed President Hammack honors today’s Nobel prize winners by advocating for reaction function transparency (NOT FG)—“accountability through transparency” #NABE2026 @nabe-econ.bsky.social
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 12h
This Nobel Prize in Econ is 1) completely deserved (I am absolutely a micro foundations of macro gal) & these 2 are giants & 2) a delicious level of pettiness to celebrate scholars whose work led to a focus on transparency & guidance by policy makers at a time when some seek to undo such thinking
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 12h
The Nobel was given to the guys who helped central banks develop forward guidance for dealing with the ZLB… www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo...
nobelprize.org
Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2026
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2026 was awarded to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford and “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation.”
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Jim Poterba, Brian Sack and Carmen Reinhart discuss the dismal US and global fiscal outlook amidst a dramatic repricing of real interest rates at #NABE2026 @nabe-econ.bsky.social
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
“Scott doesn’t really participate in philanthropy for the recognition, and maybe that’s the point” Imagine a world… fortune.com/article/mack...
fortune.com
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year | Fortune
MacKenzie Scott donated $7 billion in 2025—a third of all U.S. megagifts—bringing her five-year total to $26.2 billion, even as she stays out of the spotlight.
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Reposted by Julia Coronado
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Barry Eichengreen sees 2 different scenarios 1️⃣ Favorable: gradual erosion of US$ along w/ creation of a diverse global multipolar monetary ecosystem 2️⃣ Worrisome: sudden collapse of US$ before other systems are mature & robust: global liquidity shortage @nabe-econ.bsky.social @jc-econ.bsky.social
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Incredible game! So happy for this team ❤️
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Support Hinojosa!
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
There is a pretty big disconnect b/w the markets and the Fed's expectations for the future path of interest rates--the Fed thinks one and done on additional hikes, the market thinks 3-4, maybe more?
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Troy Jackson @troyjackson207.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Abolish ICE.
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Is this from this? www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
brookings.edu
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Reposted by Julia Coronado
ProPublica @propublica.org · 06/10/2026
NEW: The Trump administration keeps denying and downplaying that immigration agents have been detaining Americans. It’s wrong. We’ve found more than 500 U.S. citizens have been held against their will, including handcuffed or held at gunpoint.
projects.propublica.org
More Than 500 U.S. Citizens Have Been Detained, Including Handcuffed or Held at Gunpoint, in Trump’s Immigration Crackdown — ProPublica
The government doesn’t track how often immigration officers detain U.S. citizens. So ProPublica did. We’ve found more than 500 Americans who were held against their will during this Trump administrati...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
How should a democratic society respond? Our data, our resources > our control and our profits
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I asked Chat GPT why the buildout of AI requires facism, and it gets it…
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
💯 the internet boom was wildly popular because it came with a job market boom, it was exciting, good for the average person and contributed to inflation going down not up. In so many ways the AI boom is the inverse of the late 90s not a repeat
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Dream-Aces would also be 🔥
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Excuse me did you actually say “the party’s defense of a color blind meritocracy”??!!!
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Yes it is a low hire low fire labor market but there is still clear sectoral rotation away from the service sector and toward areas tied to the data center boom
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
yes but still way above trend, chart above captures current estimates
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Softer than expected September employment report after a blowout August--conditions look stable and solid at the lower breakeven pace (from no pop growth) with a rotation away from higher wage professional services toward data center related mfg + construction jobs
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Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Williams and Jefferson were dovish in recent Fed speeches; Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan in remarks this evening was most assuredly not: "Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks ...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Oh hell yeah
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Lads and lassies…
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Reposted by Julia Coronado
The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 01/10/2026
The Trump administration’s abandonment of climate rules at the nation’s most polluting power plants is being challenged by 21 states, D.C. and three major cities in a federal lawsuit that accuses the EPA of brazenly shirking a legal obligation.
washingtonpost.com
States sue to stop Trump’s retreat on power plant emissions
The Trump administration’s abandonment of climate rules at the nation’s most polluting power plants is being challenged in federal court by 21 states, the District of Columbia and three major cities i...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
ISM price indices and anecdotes contain leading information about input costs according to Fed researchers (note I seasonally adjusted the ISM mfg reading from this morning)
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
*JEFFERSON SAYS FED MAY NEED ’MORE TIME’ TO DECIDE ON NEXT MOVE well we have now heard from the Vice Chair and the FRBNY Prez so hold in Oct and hike in Dec just as signalled by the dot plot. Good old forward guidance for the win
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
5y5y forward inflation expectations from the D'Amico, Kim and Wei (DKW) model that adjust for risk & liquidity premia send a very different signal from the measure that does not make these adjustments. Specifically there has been a steady upward drift in expectations since the pandemic.
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Hell yeah we are! And all the current legislators that left the state to deny quorum to fight redistricting. Talarico gave a great speech at the time of the feistiness and fight of red state Dems and how the national party could take a page from them
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Reposted by Julia Coronado
Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
If a sentence in your newscast starts with “President Trump says…” you’re failing your audience.
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Let’s gooooo 🌄
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Reposted by Julia Coronado
Austin Kocher, PhD @austinkocher.com · 29/09/2026
ICE is deporting parents without their children. The Atlantic follows a 2-year-old in Mobile, Alabama, left behind when his parents were sent to Venezuela. 🧵 www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
theatlantic.com
The Babies Left Behind in America
The United States is deporting parents without their children, creating a whole new family-separation crisis.
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
FRBNY Prez Williams on 9/24: *WILLIAMS: THE TIME FOR EXPLICIT FORWARD GUIDANCE IS OVER on 9/29: *FED'S WILLIAMS: ONE MORE RATE HIKE MAY BE NEEDED IN LATE 2026 to be clear I am not necessarily dunking, good CB communication is hard especially in unsettled markets
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
With profits surging and the UR dropping to 4.1% from 4.5% last December, the question arises is the labor market strengthening/tightening? The dynamics from Aug JOLTS and Sept CB consumer assessments of hiring conditions do not suggest an improvement in conditions
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It's just not a very deep and active market. IMHO there is too much weight put on spot longer term breakevens as a perfect real time indicator of inflation expectations. That is just not where most investors are expressing their views
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A couple more thoughts to throw into the kitty bsky.app/profile/jc-e...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Great Q! I have 2 answers. 1) the war is a proxy for global risk not just inflation, i.e the need to run deficits to finance wars, supply chain frictions, etc & 2) the TIPS market is a technical market, it is hard to express inflation views w/o specific timing so you sell nominal bonds
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
These numbers are just so stupidly large that they must be both a reflection of and leading indicator of inflation
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
But if we are assessing the public’s economic gloom about inflation through a deeply flawed measure then how do we know know they actually have an inordinately negative view? That seems like circular reasoning…directionally there is some info but fussing over UMich levels seems like a waste of time
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
You are just choosing to ignore the most reliable and statistically significant measure of confidence. Why? Nobody knows…
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I know they do, just like they think immigration is a big problem. That’s why I said it is an open Q whether they drink their own kool aid, I suspect Musk buys his own BS at times and at the end of the day it doesn’t matter as long as he can grab our data and make people suffer
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
really?? why not?
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Bonds don't matter until they are all that matters...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
and the list goes on...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
MANY things have been damaged or destroyed but yes USAID was an explicit target
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
It's an open Q whether those favoring detruction of state capacity drink their own Kool-Aid on fiscal consolidation. For example Project 2025 argues the end of food inspections would increase food supply & lower prices. Did they believe there is no value in food safety? Or are they ghouls or both?
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Many things can be true, DOGE's destruction of state capacity is from the Project 2025 playbook. Musk didn't need to know the details to facilitate those objectives. Meanwhile he got his hands on reams of data (confirmed by whisleblowers). It failed at fiscal consolidation bc that was a ruse
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Phew these Aces!
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
This is not the 90s part bazilion and 6--the absolute voracious consumption of resources required for the AI buildout means the GDP deflator (economy wide inflation) is running 2.75x 1999 w. equip & intellectual prop investment inflation contributing meaningfully vs the disinflation of the 90s
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