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Dr James Martin

@jamomartin.bsky.social
223 followers 263 following 101 posts

Course Director at Deakin Criminology. Co-creator of Black Market Economics. Tobacco Harm Reduction Advisor for Harm Reduction Australia. Views my own.

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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Parliamentary Budget Office conceded as much as last month: www.pbo.gov.au/for-parliame...
pbo.gov.au
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
It's complete nonsense. Illicit markets are resilient but much less efficient than legal ones. Legal markets benefit from economies of scale, just in time delivery systems, transparent and highly competitive supply chains. They can nearly always deliver equivalent goods at lower prices.
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Dr Alex Wodak AM @alexwodak.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Congratulations tobacco control! Smoking Induced Deprivation among adults who smoke ⬆️from 9.5% in 2016 to 14.6% in 2022 .. Prevalence .. greatest in Australia (12% to 22.7%)! @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @jamomartin.bsky.social onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Smoking‐induced deprivation and subsequent smoking cessation among adults who smoke in four high‐income countries: Trends, correlates and longitudinal associations, 2016–2024
Background and aims Tobacco smoking substantially contributes to poverty. Smoking-induced deprivation (SID) occurs when people continue smoking despite financial stress. This study examined (i) tren...
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
More than 80% of cigarettes sold in Australia are now illicit and tax free. The main effect is now supporting organised crime. Both law enforcement agencies and criminological research are clear - it is not possible to arrest our way out of the current mess. We need a different approach.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
We've been warning government about the inevitable corruption risks associated with illicit tobacco for some time now. If the ABF was compromised at this level, one can only imagine how vulnerable other agencies are. This is just the beginning. #auspol www.smh.com.au/national/mor...
smh.com.au
More laughingstocks than legends: The collapse of Border Force’s secret spy unit
The secret push to turn the ABF into an elite spy agency collapsed in three years, leaving the country blind as the tobacco war exploded and crime gangs became a national security threat.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
It's almost as if simplistic 'world leading' bans aren't a solution for complex social problems.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Delighted to share my presentation from the Australian Institute of Criminology 2026 conference. Please have a watch if you're interested in the Australian illicit tobacco and nicotine trade. 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjKn...
youtube.com
Australia’s illicit nicotine market: Trends and insights
YouTube video by CriminologyTV
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Great column Greg. One question about tobacco being one of the biggest drivers of inflation. Given that the ABS reports 80% of nicotine products are now supplied by the black market, wouldn't the take up of very cheap illicit smokes be driving down inflation? Is this transition being accounted for?
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Action on Smoking Health (UK) @ashorguk.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
📊 New ASH survey data reveals trends in adult and youth vaping. 📈 New factsheets published today by ASH reveal comprehensive data from our survey conducted by YouGov on vaping trends and behaviour in Britain.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
3) At this rate, we will hit 300 firebombings nationally some time in the next few weeks. 4) This was an entirely predictable (and predicted) outcome of neo-prohibitionist policies: sky high tobacco taxes and the ban on vapes. First warned about 8 years ago👇 www.sbs.com.au/news/the-fee...
sbs.com.au
Expert Analysis: Tax increase on cigarettes will trigger black market boom of tainted tobacco
Criminologist Dr James Martin thinks the federal budget announcement to tackle black market tobacco will backfire.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Another day, another tobacco related arson attack. 🔥🔥 Four immediate takeaways: 1) It's only a matter of time until more innocent people are killed. 2) This will not stop until we divert a critical mass of nicotine consumers back to the legal market. 7news.com.au/news/7news-l...
7news.com.au
Ram-raid smash sparks destructive inferno across multiple Melbourne shops
Follow along as we bring you all of the big crime, traffic and weather updates.
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Dr Alex Wodak AM @alexwodak.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Sweden 41% fewer cancer cases than EU average despite similar nicotine consumption. Michael Landl highlights this, sparking debate on tobacco regulation. Sweden achieved low smoking rates through harm reduction using snus, vapes, and pouches. www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/partner/arti...
theparliamentmagazine.eu
Brussels knows how to end smoking, but chooses not to
Sweden records 41% fewer cancer cases than the EU average, despite similar nicotine consumption. World Vapers' Alliance's Michael Landl explains wh...
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Saul Rosenberg @saul-rosenberg.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
prices be high down under
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Australia’s tobacco and nicotine policies are failing on nearly every conceivable front. ❌ Increased smoking ❌ Billions lost in tobacco excise ❌ Widening health inequalities ❌ Record growth in organised crime We urgently need a new approach. youtu.be/CMqbv8mhvBg
youtu.be
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Dr Sophie Scamps MP @sophiescamps.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Even Coalition now on board! Albo is blocking real reforms on gambling advertising Time to get real Albo ! End gambling advertising ALTOGETHER!! www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
smh.com.au
‘The case against it is overwhelming’: Howard joins Coalition MPs demanding tougher gambling laws
In an open letter, opposition MPs including frontbencher Andrew Hastie and deputy Nationals leader Darren Chester said: “Your proposed reforms do not go far enough.”
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
This is the most irresponsible coverage of vaping I’ve ever seen on the ABC. Vapes present a far lower risk of cancer than tobacco smoking. This sort of alarmist nonsense will convince people they are better off smoking than switching to a much less harmful alternative. youtu.be/D_B9EcHC4yg
youtu.be
Vaping myth busting: Vaping causes cancer? [Episode 10]
YouTube video by UEA Addiction Research
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Sweden just became the first Western country to go "smoke free". Meanwhile, Australia, the self-proclaimed world leader, is going up in flames. My piece on what we got wrong and what we have to learn from the real world leaders in tobacco control. michaelwest.com.au/tobacco-rack...
michaelwest.com.au
Tobacco racket. Swedes go smoke-free while Australians light up with criminals - Michael West
Australia's smoke reduction policies have failed to reduce smoking while fueling a black market and huge reduction in tobacco excise revenue.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Interestingly, while smoking rates were plateauing in the years preceding the tax cut, and ticked up again shortly afterwards, they otherwise continued their long downwards trend across the 1990s.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
These figures are from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. No prizes for guessing what year taxes started to increase again.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The screenshots are from a Canadian government commissioned report from KPMG published in 1999 (not funded by a tobacco company). Seizures fell 82% in the four years following the tax cut, and declined even further in subsequent years, until taxes were increased again.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Suggestions that cutting tobacco tax cannot reduce the illicit market are wrong. In 1994, the Canadian government slashed their tobacco excise by over 50% (and boosted enforcement) and successfully suppressed the illicit market. Subsequent studies found the tax cut did the heavy lifting. 🧵
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ABC News Bot (unofficial) @abcnewsbot.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
The experimental estimates are based on "nicotine metabolite concentrations" detected in wastewater samples, combined with data showing a collapse in spending on legal cigarettes and vapes.
abc.net.au
ABS estimates 80pc of tobacco consumed in Australia last year illegal
The experimental estimates are based on "nicotine metabolite concentrations" detected in wastewater samples, combined with data showing a collapse in spending on legal cigarettes and vapes.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
We have been warning them for years now, to no avail... www.sbs.com.au/news/the-fee...
sbs.com.au
Expert Analysis: Tax increase on cigarettes will trigger black market boom of tainted tobacco
Criminologist Dr James Martin thinks the federal budget announcement to tackle black market tobacco will backfire.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Whoa. According to newly released figures from the ABS, in Dec 2025 a staggering 80% of tobacco sold in Australia was illicit! Perhaps it's time for policymakers to listen to someone other than the tobacco control prohibitionists who got us into this mess? #auspol www.abs.gov.au/articles/hou...
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Dr Alex Wodak AM @alexwodak.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
open.substack.com/pub/clivebat...
open.substack.com
A ridiculous but revealing conference declaration
In the perpetual contest for the dumbest public health conference declaration, the Europeans are going for gold.
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Dr Alex Wodak AM @alexwodak.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
My article out today: why Australia has to now start reducing cigarette excise & make safer, smoke-free nicotine products easier to get than deadly cigarettes #auspol @algore09algor.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social pearlsandirritations.com/post/2026/05...
pearlsandirritations.com
Australia abandoned harm minimisation on smoking – and fuelled a black market
Australia’s steep cigarette excise increases and restrictive vaping policies have fuelled a massive illegal tobacco market while undermining the country’s long-standing harm-minimisation approach to p...
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
What can UK learn from Australia’s nicotine crackdown? 1) If you ban, stigmatise and spread misinformation about vaping you risk increasing smoking 🚬 2) If you tax tobacco out of affordability of everyday people, you create an uncontrollable black market 🔥 www.bmj.com/content/393/...
bmj.com
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Is the government's enforcement-led approach going to win the tobacco wars? Not likely. Check out the latest conversation with the excellent team at 7am to find out why.🔥🔥👇 7ampodcast.com.au/episodes/sho...
7ampodcast.com.au
Should tobacco shops exist? The new weapon in the tobacco wars
Australia’s tobacco wars are fuelling violence, with fire bombings and arson attacks spanning across the east coast. Now the federal government wants to treat these organised crime syndicates like ‘d...
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
The paper is led by Prof Ron Borland, one of Australia's most distinguished tobacco control researchers with 30+ years at a state Cancer Council, with a multidisciplinary team including researchers who have advised the WHO on drug policy.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
If these policies cannot be made to work in a low-corruption, high-enforcement country like Australia, the case for persisting with them elsewhere looks increasingly difficult to sustain.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
More enforcement is not the answer. Australia's own experience with other drug markets shows that intensified policing of large, entrenched illicit markets yields sharply diminishing returns. The nicotine market, with millions of regular users, will likely be no different.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
There is also evidence that cheap illicit tobacco may be driving the first sustained rise in national smoking prevalence since the 1990s. Policy intended to reduce smoking may now be increasing it.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
The consequences go beyond lost tax revenue. Over 280 arson attacks on retailers since 2023. Homicide, kidnapping, extortion. Illicit profits financing sex trafficking and weapons smuggling. And AUD$340 million in additional enforcement funding that has not reversed the trend.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
More than half of all tobacco and over 95% of vapes sold in Australia are now illicit. The black market is worth AUD$7 billion a year, around 40% of Australia's entire illicit drug economy, more than cannabis, cocaine, heroin and ecstasy combined.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
🚨 New paper alert: 'Has Australia lost control of its tobacco and nicotine markets?' Short answer - yes, and largely by following two WHO endorsed policies: very high tobacco taxes and a ban on vapes and other less harmful nicotine products onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Has Australia lost control of its tobacco and nicotine markets?
Background Australia has adopted two policies that the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends as best practice for tobacco control: it has steeply increased tobacco taxes since 2010 and only all...
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Dr Alex Wodak AM @alexwodak.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
3 senior exWHO researchers (R Beaglehole, R Bonita, T Pang), Nature Health 2026, “Increased use of smoke-free nicotine products such as vapes could help to achieve an ambitious global goal of reducing smoking prevalence below 5% by 2040” doi.org/10.1038/s443... @publichealthaus.bsky.social
doi.org
Smoke-free nicotine products can accelerate the end of the smoking epidemic - Nature Health
Increased use of smoke-free nicotine products such as vapes could help to achieve an ambitious global goal of reducing smoking prevalence below 5% by 2040.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Startling and not well received by international colleagues. “This narrative review is problematic for several reasons and makes extraordinary claims that are not borne out by the data." www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
sciencemediacentre.org
expert reaction to qualitative risk assessment on the carcinogenicity of e-cigarettes | Science Media Centre
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Safe to say that international researchers are not impressed with the quality of this study. “This narrative review is problematic for several reasons and makes extraordinary claims that are not borne out by the data." www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
sciencemediacentre.org
expert reaction to qualitative risk assessment on the carcinogenicity of e-cigarettes | Science Media Centre
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Safe to say that international researchers are not impressed with the quality of this study. “This narrative review is problematic for several reasons and makes extraordinary claims that are not borne out by the data." www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
sciencemediacentre.org
expert reaction to qualitative risk assessment on the carcinogenicity of e-cigarettes | Science Media Centre
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Interesting that it seems to be the Australian reviews that come up with these findings and not those that are conducted overseas. www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
sciencemediacentre.org
expert reaction to qualitative risk assessment on the carcinogenicity of e-cigarettes | Science Media Centre
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Is the government's enforcement-led approach going to win the tobacco wars? Not likely. Check out the latest conversation with the excellent team at 7am to find out why.🔥🔥👇 7ampodcast.com.au/episodes/sho...
7ampodcast.com.au
Should tobacco shops exist? The new weapon in the tobacco wars
Australia’s tobacco wars are fuelling violence, with fire bombings and arson attacks spanning across the east coast. Now the federal government wants to treat these organised crime syndicates like ‘d...
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03...
abc.net.au
Man shot at cafe, getaway car burnt in incident linked to illegal tobacco
Police are investigating whether a 49-year-old man shot in Altona North in Melbourne's west was a random victim of the illegal tobacco trade or was targeted by the offenders.
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Dr Alex Wodak AM @alexwodak.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
1/3 International Monetary Fund: Price the harm “But policymakers need to think more broadly about how to change unhealthy behavior.Ideally, the level of taxation should reflect the degree of harm a product is likely to cause while still safeguarding overall revenue. ..” @algore09algor.bsky.social
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Interesting to see this new study on taxation and harm from the IMF. The authors note Australia's "misaligned" approach to tobacco taxation. They also point to the success of New Zealand's approach, noting the (much) less harmful effects of vaping 👇 www.imf.org/en/publicati...
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Tim Stephens @proftimstephens.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Time for a Tin Tin defeats the drug lords comic book. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
theguardian.com
Belgium at risk of becoming ‘narco-state’, judge warns
President of Antwerp court makes comments after anonymous judge warned country was turning into ‘a narco-state’
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia? Want to share your views on the tobacco black market? Join us for a confidential interview. See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Check out the latest from @edjegasothy.bsky.social and me about Australia's historical experience with prohibition, and what lessons we can learn about it's impact on illicit markets and organised crime. theconversation.com/prohibitive-...
theconversation.com
Prohibitive policies drove organised crime in Australia 100 years ago. It’s happening again
Where there’s demand, there will be supply, legal or not. From the ‘sly grog’ of the 1920s to the illicit vapes of today, getting regulation right is difficult.
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Dr Alex Wodak AM @alexwodak.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
‘ … Reducing excise rates would shift consumption away from illicit products.' Review of Australia’s illicit tobacco market apo.org.au/node/333573
apo.org.au
Addressing Australia’s illicit tobacco market
This report assesses the scale, drivers and impacts of Australia’s illicit tobacco market, benchmarks Australia internationally and models how different policy approaches (excise reform plus strengthe...
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia? Want to share your views on the tobacco black market? Join us for a confidential interview. See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.
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Dr James Martin @jamomartin.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia? Want to share your views on the tobacco black market? Join us for a confidential interview. See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.
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