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Jake McKibbin

@jakemckibbin.bsky.social
233 followers 67 following 205 posts

Baseball Rat

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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I do think he matches up well, and can keep the hard contact down if he locates well but that location has been a problem this year. Fingers crossed!
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Dustin May's contrasting starts/arsenal for the Cardinals (CG shutout) and the Brewers in August (7 IP, 1 ER) The way he manages QoC with the sinker and cutter is going to be huge. The sinker had big outlier movement that day, and he had a 65% ground ball rate from pounding the shadow zone down
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The Brewers are one win away from sending the Padres home. So what’s the key to getting to Nick Pivetta early and putting Game 3 away? There’s a clear path Milwaukee can take — and it starts at the plate. Here’s how the Brewers can close this thing out⬇️ brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
How Can the Brewers Jump On Nick Pivetta and Close Out Padres in Game 3?
The Brewers have sent a shockwave through San Diego, winning consecutive games against their two premier relief pitchers. To finish the job as the series shifts to Petco Park, how can they attack prob...
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
63% zone-swing, 34% chase rate. When the swing decisions are good, typically so is Chourio. While I can't say this level of decision making is projectable long term, he is seeing it like a beach ball right now
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Through the first two games of the Division series: - Christian Yelich has just a 20% ground ball rate, and leads the team in expected slugging and xWOBA - Jackson Chourio has a chase rate of 9% and an in-zone swing rate of 81%. Those are ludicrous swing decision numbers
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It might depend on arm angle too. Snell is a very high release slot pitcher, Skubal is high-ish too and has the changeup to right handers as well I don't think Yelich gets a start against Sale, that slot from that release point are deadly to a LHH
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
From memory, did Machado double off Miz for their first hit of the series? There hasn't been much in the way of thump so far, some excellent pitching from the Brewers
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
San Diego also have: Lowest average exit velocity of LDS teams (85.6 mph) 6th lowest xWOBA (.266) 2nd lowest hard hit rate 2nd lowest expected slugging You could argue they've been a little fortunate on their own batted balls
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
100%. Keep crushing balls though and the results will come. I think there's still room for a big, series-ending offensive outburst in PetCo Park
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The Milwaukee Brewers through two LDS games and 73 team plate appearances BA: .190 SLG: .302 xBA: .345 xSLG: .562 They have been fairly unlucky across the first two games of this series, while the Padres have been closer to their expected totals. To be ahead 2-0 is incredible
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Jackson Bryan Chourio: "I sometimes feel like I was born for these moments"
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I am speechless. Not a great thing for a talk show, but come join Jason and I for a post game! www.youtube.com/live/BPwhwf2...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Talkin' Padres NLDS
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
For what it's worth, Ty France hit an almost identical ball 341 feet with 104 mph exit velocity and 48° launch angle earlier this year. I'm not sure on the result, but it would have been close
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Through almost eight innings, the Brewers have an expected batting average of . 329. They have 4 actual hits. (Expected hits 8.2) Some buzzards luck with hard contact and some nice fielding plays from the Padres and OMG WILD BILL
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
How do the Brewers attack Fernando Tatis Jr.? And what’s the plan for the rest of a Padres offense that can change a game in a hurry? I broke down the key matchups and what Milwaukee needs to do this October. 👇 brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
October Blueprint: How to Handle Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres Offense
The Padres have plenty of ways to hurt you at the top of the order, but they aren't without weaknesses. So, after looking at how San Diego can attack Milwaukee's hitters, it's time to flip the script....
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It seems the Padres have struggled offensively against sinkers and cutters this season. Curveballs too. It's going to be fascinating to see how Dustin May, Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and Antonio Senzatela perform in the NLDS with their pitch mixes
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Four runs. One intriguing postseason indicator. Could the Brewers’ ability to clear this seemingly simple threshold tell us something about their chances in October? I take a closer look at the “Four-Run Barometer” and what it could mean for Milwaukee. brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Can the Four-Run Barometer Predict Milwaukee Brewers' 2026 Postseason Success?
Four runs might be one of baseball's simplest benchmarks, but in 2026, it tells us plenty about which teams have consistently put themselves in position to win. So, what can the Brewers' remarkable co...
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Since August 1st, the Brewers vs the Padres have: - a better bullpen ERA from their top four relievers - a better starter's ERA (despite Dustin May's problems) from their playoff rotation - more games where they've scored 4+ runs than the Padres (ie discounting blowouts)
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Every Brewers hitter has a weakness. But finding it, and actually exploiting it, are two very different things. Here’s the October blueprint for attacking Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and Jake Bauers. 👇 brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
The October Blueprint: How Teams Will Attack the Brewers’ Best Hitters
Every hitter has a weakness, but exploiting it against the Brewers' best four may be easier said than done. Here's how opposing pitching staffs could try to attack Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, B...
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I almost meme generated this clip for the post, great minds dude!
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Remember when Brice Turang couldn't hit left-handed pitching? About that....
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Reposted by Jake McKibbin
Brewer Fanatic @brewerfanatic.com · 23/09/2026
The Shuckers flexed their prospect might in Game Two of the Southern League Championship, sending Biloxi to a decisive Game Three. #brewers #milwaukee #thisismycrew
dlvr.it
Brewers Minor League Link Report (9/22): Shuckers' Stars Propel Team to Brink of Southern League Title
The Shuckers flexed their prospect might in Game Two of the Southern League Championship, sending Biloxi to a decisive Game Three.
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Dustin May has not recorded a single swing and miss on his sinker against a left handed hitter since joining the Brewers in August. Going back to it with two strikes, in the same spot that you've now put three fastballs in five pitches without changing eye levels, made no sense
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is a fabulous piece by Ben, but I might have to take his stats in a slightly different direction. Two of the best predictors of pitching performance are SIERA and FIP. I didn't expect May to look quite so good, but it's a telling story
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
DL Hall's stuff has seen a massive uptick in 2026. How much? Well as @matrueblood.bsky.social pointed out over @brewerfanatic.com , he's been incredible since coming off the IL in June and I'll let the pitching profiler comparison do the talking. Velocity is up across the board and it's DEVASTATING
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
On the theme of great outfield defense, Jackson Chourio has been the best defender in baseball since August 1st by Fielding Run Value (FRV)
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Jason and I thought we'd change tack a little this week. We covered some quick headlines, then came up with a combined 2023-26 playoff roster for the Brewers Conclusion: This team feels more complete compared to three prior playoff seasons. So few holes on the roster www.youtube.com/live/seMslMD...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Planning for the Postseason
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is the lowest catch probability made by a Brewers outfielder this season. Garrett Mitchell had a 10% chance of making this grab, making a truly incredible play and helping Harrison out in a big way
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The results weren't there, with no whiffs despite some well located fastballs, but Kyle Harrison's induced vertical break (IVB) numbers on his fastball were back to his early season benchmark
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
He hasn't had a great season but Brock Wilken has shown signs of life over the last month. Nice to see from the former first round pick, although he has had some bad luck over the period, and top end EV's haven't been where you'd like
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The high fastball is still in Garrett Mitchell’s attack zone. The interesting part is what happens after pitchers get there. I loved writing and researching this, hopefully you enjoy reading as much as I did writing! brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic...
brewerfanatic.com
Garrett Mitchell's High-Fastball Problem Isn't Gone. It's Just Different Now.
Image courtesy of Aaron Doster-Imagn Images Garrett Mitchell's biggest weakness is no secret. In his first three years in the big leagues, as scattered as those appearances were, he struggled badly ag...
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
In my entire fandom of the Milwaukee Brewers (since August 2019) I have seen them miss the playoffs just once. There has only been one day of the regular season that they have been statistically eliminated from October baseball. Am I the charm?
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Who makes Milwaukee’s NLDS roster? We project all 26 spots, the pitching plan and the battle for the final spot: brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Projecting the Brewers’ 2026 NLDS Roster: Pitching Plan and Final 26th-Man Battle
Who makes the Brewers' NLDS roster? The position players look almost locked in. The pitching staff is a lot more interesting, and there's one spot left to fill. Here's how we think the Brewers' 26-man...
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Milwaukee Brewers offensive ranks over the last month: WRC+: 1st WAR: 1st Slugging: 2nd Home runs: 13th (LAD 21st, PHI 24th) xWOBA: 1st
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Jason and I are live in 10 minutes for those of you who want to celebrate a wonderful week of Brewers baseball, come join on your second screen! www.youtube.com/live/3DHPHS4...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Sauteeing the Central
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Dustin May has six pitches, but they don't all look like they're coming from the same pitcher. His arsenal splits into two distinct groups with dramatically different arm slots. The Brewers have only a few weeks to turn that unusual view into an October weapon. brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Dustin May Has Two Arsenals, Two Arm Angles, and Two Approaches For Each Side Of The Platoon
Dustin May has six pitches. The problem: they don't all look like they're coming from the same pitcher. His arsenal has split into two distinct groups with dramatically different arm slots, giving hit...
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I think Jackson Chourio is a LF gold glover this year Tied for NL lead in DRS at 10 with Ian Happ and Daylen Lile, while leading both in outs above average (4) Under the hood he's getting the 17th best jumps of all outfielders (not just LF). He's been a strong corner OF this year
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The Milwaukee Brewers have two leverage relievers who are measurably amongst the most hit and miss relief pitchers in baseball: -WPA (Effectively Win probability lost): Ashby 4th, Senzatela 2nd +WPA (Win Probability added): Ashby 11th, Senzatela 14th
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Garrett Mitchell is once again getting super aggressive at pitches inside the strike zone. His batted ball quality so far in September is LUDICROUS. Yes, that's an 87.5% hard hit rate (7/8), and a 50% launch angle sweet spot rate Its a small sample, but you can only laugh
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
In terms of shape, Kyle Harrison's fastball looked better yesterday. The arm angle, the horizontal release point, the vertical approach angle and the induced vertical break all back to his April-June numbers There was just no command of the fastball at all, and still down a tick
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Have you met swans?
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Well that left a lot to talk about.. for anyone needing to vent, Jason and I are going live in 15 minutes at 4Pm CT, feel free to join us and fire any questions you may have www.youtube.com/live/kPmCEzm...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Cubs
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The fastball miss to Elly De La Cruz aside, I think that's the best process-based performance we've seen from Dustin May. The locations were much better, nipping in and out of the shadow zone with his fastballs and breakers. Great to see the swing and miss back as a result
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Highly un-controversial opinion: We need more @matrueblood.bsky.social's in our baseball lives. This is a beautiful piece of work, covering the nuances, exploring different side of an argument and presenting a treasure trove of information. Must read re Brice Turang brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Brice Turang is in a Tailspin. Can He Get Right By October?
The Brewers can't get where they want to go this fall without a better version of the man who has often been their best player. To have that guy come October, though, they might need to give up a port...
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Logan Henderson is the most "Brandon Woodruff" like pitcher on this team, not in terms of his arsenal, but as a bulldog. No starting pitcher this year with over 50 innings has a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone Steam train: coming through
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Brice Turang - Knee tendinitis Jake Bauers - Shin splits Neither of these will heal fully before playoffs, but both are only cured from rest With Turang especially limping to third base yesterday and making uncharacteristic plays, I think both should have IL stints this month
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Reposted by Jake McKibbin
Matt Trueblood @matrueblood.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
(Hey, the fact that two teams have been sold in the last few months should tell you something about how serious owners are about breaking the union to get a cap. If they thought they were gonna win, they’d be waiting.)
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Christian Yelich since August 8th (NB this won't include his homer from last night yet). He's been unlucky against LHP but the process has been so good in the small sample there, while being more aggressive and crushing RHP on contact
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Covering all things baseball and not baseball, Jason and I managed to stay mostly on topic (with a slight pizza detour) over the last week. For a little fun baseball content prior to game 2 of this Cubs series, here's the link! www.youtube.com/live/0jaaZKs...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Met Mashing & Ranger Routing
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
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Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Since Dustin May joined the Brewers his arm angle has actually gotten higher than ever before The 40° arm angle on his 4S in August is the highest of any month in his career He's getting less East/West movement which impact the whiffs on his sweeper, and less drop on his sinker from the higher slot
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