Sign in

Jake McKibbin

@jakemckibbin.bsky.social
222 followers 67 following 189 posts

Baseball Rat

PostsRepliesMedia
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 16h
Four runs. One intriguing postseason indicator. Could the Brewers’ ability to clear this seemingly simple threshold tell us something about their chances in October? I take a closer look at the “Four-Run Barometer” and what it could mean for Milwaukee. brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Can the Four-Run Barometer Predict Milwaukee Brewers' 2026 Postseason Success?
Four runs might be one of baseball's simplest benchmarks, but in 2026, it tells us plenty about which teams have consistently put themselves in position to win. So, what can the Brewers' remarkable co...
041
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 19h
Since August 1st, the Brewers vs the Padres have: - a better bullpen ERA from their top four relievers - a better starter's ERA (despite Dustin May's problems) from their playoff rotation - more games where they've scored 4+ runs than the Padres (ie discounting blowouts)
030
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Every Brewers hitter has a weakness. But finding it, and actually exploiting it, are two very different things. Here’s the October blueprint for attacking Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and Jake Bauers. 👇 brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
The October Blueprint: How Teams Will Attack the Brewers’ Best Hitters
Every hitter has a weakness, but exploiting it against the Brewers' best four may be easier said than done. Here's how opposing pitching staffs could try to attack Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, B...
011
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Remember when Brice Turang couldn't hit left-handed pitching? About that....
162
Reposted by Jake McKibbin
Brewer Fanatic @brewerfanatic.com · 23/09/2026
The Shuckers flexed their prospect might in Game Two of the Southern League Championship, sending Biloxi to a decisive Game Three. #brewers #milwaukee #thisismycrew
dlvr.it
Brewers Minor League Link Report (9/22): Shuckers' Stars Propel Team to Brink of Southern League Title
The Shuckers flexed their prospect might in Game Two of the Southern League Championship, sending Biloxi to a decisive Game Three.
021
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Dustin May has not recorded a single swing and miss on his sinker against a left handed hitter since joining the Brewers in August. Going back to it with two strikes, in the same spot that you've now put three fastballs in five pitches without changing eye levels, made no sense
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is a fabulous piece by Ben, but I might have to take his stats in a slightly different direction. Two of the best predictors of pitching performance are SIERA and FIP. I didn't expect May to look quite so good, but it's a telling story
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
DL Hall's stuff has seen a massive uptick in 2026. How much? Well as @matrueblood.bsky.social pointed out over @brewerfanatic.com , he's been incredible since coming off the IL in June and I'll let the pitching profiler comparison do the talking. Velocity is up across the board and it's DEVASTATING
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
On the theme of great outfield defense, Jackson Chourio has been the best defender in baseball since August 1st by Fielding Run Value (FRV)
151
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Jason and I thought we'd change tack a little this week. We covered some quick headlines, then came up with a combined 2023-26 playoff roster for the Brewers Conclusion: This team feels more complete compared to three prior playoff seasons. So few holes on the roster www.youtube.com/live/seMslMD...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Planning for the Postseason
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is the lowest catch probability made by a Brewers outfielder this season. Garrett Mitchell had a 10% chance of making this grab, making a truly incredible play and helping Harrison out in a big way
0215
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The results weren't there, with no whiffs despite some well located fastballs, but Kyle Harrison's induced vertical break (IVB) numbers on his fastball were back to his early season benchmark
030
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
He hasn't had a great season but Brock Wilken has shown signs of life over the last month. Nice to see from the former first round pick, although he has had some bad luck over the period, and top end EV's haven't been where you'd like
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The high fastball is still in Garrett Mitchell’s attack zone. The interesting part is what happens after pitchers get there. I loved writing and researching this, hopefully you enjoy reading as much as I did writing! brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic...
brewerfanatic.com
Garrett Mitchell's High-Fastball Problem Isn't Gone. It's Just Different Now.
Image courtesy of Aaron Doster-Imagn Images Garrett Mitchell's biggest weakness is no secret. In his first three years in the big leagues, as scattered as those appearances were, he struggled badly ag...
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
In my entire fandom of the Milwaukee Brewers (since August 2019) I have seen them miss the playoffs just once. There has only been one day of the regular season that they have been statistically eliminated from October baseball. Am I the charm?
020
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Who makes Milwaukee’s NLDS roster? We project all 26 spots, the pitching plan and the battle for the final spot: brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Projecting the Brewers’ 2026 NLDS Roster: Pitching Plan and Final 26th-Man Battle
Who makes the Brewers' NLDS roster? The position players look almost locked in. The pitching staff is a lot more interesting, and there's one spot left to fill. Here's how we think the Brewers' 26-man...
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Milwaukee Brewers offensive ranks over the last month: WRC+: 1st WAR: 1st Slugging: 2nd Home runs: 13th (LAD 21st, PHI 24th) xWOBA: 1st
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Jason and I are live in 10 minutes for those of you who want to celebrate a wonderful week of Brewers baseball, come join on your second screen! www.youtube.com/live/3DHPHS4...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Sauteeing the Central
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Dustin May has six pitches, but they don't all look like they're coming from the same pitcher. His arsenal splits into two distinct groups with dramatically different arm slots. The Brewers have only a few weeks to turn that unusual view into an October weapon. brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Dustin May Has Two Arsenals, Two Arm Angles, and Two Approaches For Each Side Of The Platoon
Dustin May has six pitches. The problem: they don't all look like they're coming from the same pitcher. His arsenal has split into two distinct groups with dramatically different arm slots, giving hit...
011
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I think Jackson Chourio is a LF gold glover this year Tied for NL lead in DRS at 10 with Ian Happ and Daylen Lile, while leading both in outs above average (4) Under the hood he's getting the 17th best jumps of all outfielders (not just LF). He's been a strong corner OF this year
011
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The Milwaukee Brewers have two leverage relievers who are measurably amongst the most hit and miss relief pitchers in baseball: -WPA (Effectively Win probability lost): Ashby 4th, Senzatela 2nd +WPA (Win Probability added): Ashby 11th, Senzatela 14th
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Garrett Mitchell is once again getting super aggressive at pitches inside the strike zone. His batted ball quality so far in September is LUDICROUS. Yes, that's an 87.5% hard hit rate (7/8), and a 50% launch angle sweet spot rate Its a small sample, but you can only laugh
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
In terms of shape, Kyle Harrison's fastball looked better yesterday. The arm angle, the horizontal release point, the vertical approach angle and the induced vertical break all back to his April-June numbers There was just no command of the fastball at all, and still down a tick
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Well that left a lot to talk about.. for anyone needing to vent, Jason and I are going live in 15 minutes at 4Pm CT, feel free to join us and fire any questions you may have www.youtube.com/live/kPmCEzm...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Cubs
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The fastball miss to Elly De La Cruz aside, I think that's the best process-based performance we've seen from Dustin May. The locations were much better, nipping in and out of the shadow zone with his fastballs and breakers. Great to see the swing and miss back as a result
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Highly un-controversial opinion: We need more @matrueblood.bsky.social's in our baseball lives. This is a beautiful piece of work, covering the nuances, exploring different side of an argument and presenting a treasure trove of information. Must read re Brice Turang brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Brice Turang is in a Tailspin. Can He Get Right By October?
The Brewers can't get where they want to go this fall without a better version of the man who has often been their best player. To have that guy come October, though, they might need to give up a port...
131
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Logan Henderson is the most "Brandon Woodruff" like pitcher on this team, not in terms of his arsenal, but as a bulldog. No starting pitcher this year with over 50 innings has a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone Steam train: coming through
040
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Brice Turang - Knee tendinitis Jake Bauers - Shin splits Neither of these will heal fully before playoffs, but both are only cured from rest With Turang especially limping to third base yesterday and making uncharacteristic plays, I think both should have IL stints this month
121
Reposted by Jake McKibbin
Matt Trueblood @matrueblood.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
(Hey, the fact that two teams have been sold in the last few months should tell you something about how serious owners are about breaking the union to get a cap. If they thought they were gonna win, they’d be waiting.)
13512
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Christian Yelich since August 8th (NB this won't include his homer from last night yet). He's been unlucky against LHP but the process has been so good in the small sample there, while being more aggressive and crushing RHP on contact
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Covering all things baseball and not baseball, Jason and I managed to stay mostly on topic (with a slight pizza detour) over the last week. For a little fun baseball content prior to game 2 of this Cubs series, here's the link! www.youtube.com/live/0jaaZKs...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Met Mashing & Ranger Routing
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Since Dustin May joined the Brewers his arm angle has actually gotten higher than ever before The 40° arm angle on his 4S in August is the highest of any month in his career He's getting less East/West movement which impact the whiffs on his sweeper, and less drop on his sinker from the higher slot
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Jason Wang and I are back for our usual Sunday Live podcast on YouTube to break down the last week of baseball, and there's a lot to cover! We'll go live after the game (probably around 4.15 CT), come join us and fire off any questions you have! www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jaa...
youtube.com
Brewer Fanatic Sunday Live: Met Mashing & Ranger Routing
YouTube video by Brewer Fanatic
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Something changes when Jackson Chourio comes to the plate with runners in scoring position, and the numbers tell a fascinating story. What’s going on with the Brewers’ young star? 👀 Read more ⤵️ brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
Jackson Chourio Has a Surprising Problem With Runners in Scoring Position
Jackson Chourio has been one of Milwaukee's best hitters in 2026. But his approach changes noticeably when runners are on base, and the numbers suggest that may be costing the Brewers in key situation...
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The Brewers are still getting their hits, but that big hit has been elusive of late. With a particular focus on someone to help against left handed pitching, and a wildcard to boot, here are two sluggers that could help the Brewers in September: brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...
brewerfanatic.com
2 Brewers Prospects Who Could Boost Milwaukee’s Offense in September
The Brewers' trade window is closed, but help could still be on the way. Could Luke Adams or Blake Burke provide the power Milwaukee needs?
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Brice Turang is hitting second against a left handed starter tonight, but should the Brewers be finding ways to reduce his playing time against southpaws as they look towards October? The contact quality has been underwhelming to say the least
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Garrett Mitchell's center field defense has been metronomic this season, all while avoiding dives. Since Mid-May: 4* Catches - 2/2 3* Catches - 8/9 (One error) 2* Catches - 16/16 Also, some of the 5* catches are made with a dive (Like below), which I think we'll see in October when it matters most
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Shane Drohan had some unfortunate batted balls luck, and some unusually sloppy defense from the Brewers infield. Once again (as you can see from the expected Run Value on batted balls) the sinker was trouble. It has an xWOBA in 2026 of . 432
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Amongst players with at least 10 plate appearances in the last two weeks, Christian Yelich has: Expected WOBA: .440 (100th Percentile) Actual WOBA: .262 (bad luck galore) Barrel rate: 20% (99th Percentile) Hard Hit Rate: 60% (99th Percentile) LA Sweet Spot: 40% (99th Percentile)
040
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Wild Bill is WILDING over the last two weeks. Form is temporary; class is permanent
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
The quality of contact conceded by DL Hall since his return has been absurd. That sinker is carving and he's hitting the zone a lot more often too (though still a tad high for his walk rate) I'm more and more comfortable with the idea of Hall pitching important innings
061
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
A quick check-in on the prospects the Brewers traded for Dustin May Josiah Ragsdale: .192/.279/.346 with a 33% K rate at Double A Alexander Frias: .235/.328/.347 with a 29% K rate at Low A Not quite getting out hot, although moving org's is tough. We can see Frias' underlying data too from the FSL
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I get the Brewers love fastballs, especially a sinker/cutter combo. That being said, they're almost abandoning a breaking pitch or off-speed for the former Rockie who's yet to get a curveball whiff for the Brewers He needs more to change the hitters timing
120
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Coleman Crow is yet to allow a run in August with Nashville across 18.2 innings and there's been a change in his arsenal. The curveball is a little faster and tighter this month, along with ditching the sweeper and favouring his sinker over the four-seamer. Colour me intrigued
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Blake Burke's profile is so fun. You should not be able to hit a ball THIS hard, AND make this much contact inside the strike zone, AND elevate the ball consistently. If he can just find a way to force pitchers into the zone, he could be one of the best hitters in baseball. It's so close
010
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
If it's a choice between giving the Brewers a chance to win, and protecting a player's reputation/feelings, Pat Murphy will always chase the win. Gasser's command had completely gone.
static.klipy.com
Denzel Washington: I'm a Winner
ALT: Denzel Washington: I'm a Winner
001
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Let's take this one step further, the Brewers are the only team with an opposite field attack direction in baseball Seeing it deep and making good swing decisions is important for their brand, but it is a reason why they have such low air-pull and home run totals.
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
A fun observation of ideological differences between the Cubs and the Brewers. If we look at attack direction (i.e. where the bat is angled at the point of contact) the disposition of where each team directs the ball is stark. Not one Brewers player averages a pull oriented swing
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Well that wasn't pretty from May. The results were great in his first two starts but there were some slight concerns (see below) with a lack of in zone whiff, less in zone pitches and improved quality of contact. It's all command for me, and we'll need to see that return
000
Jake McKibbin @jakemckibbin.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
For me, an elite fastball has to be effective over the heart of the plate. So I've been poking into Statcast's leverage-based run value. The Brewers have the player with the highest leverage adjusted run value on fastballs over the heart of the plate. It's not Jacob Misiorowski It's Shane Drohan
1102