iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A critical question regarding the fund crisis in Türkiye: Why did people possessing such a big amount of money invest in stocks instead of capital assets? Because as wages (=demand) are suppressed, the profit expected from real investment falls short of the profit expected from financial investment.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

If wages are kept suppressed and interest rates are kept hiked, yes, it will crash, because productivity growth expected from AI will fail and debt growth will outpace income growth, and these capital expenditures driven by overconfidence will fail to meet financial commitments x.com/tonyannett/s...

x.com

Tony Annett (@tonyannett) on X

AI is the biggest capital expenditure of all time. If it crashes, it will be bad!

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The Fed and the ECB are stealing the role again. Inflation will cease once the conflict with Iran is resolved. Then CBs and neoliberals will pretend that inflation fell thanks to the rate hikes. Bankruptcies? This is indeed what they target: increasing market concentration x.com/ilhandogus/s...

x.com

ilhan dögüs (@ilhandogus) on X

1-the Fed stole the role. Rate hikes had no impact: demand for loan didn't fall. Inflation was caused by supply bottlenecks, not demand and fell after bottlenecks were ceased. 2-Consumption expenditur...

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MMTAction @mmt-action.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

"Banks don't lend out deposits: they create deposits when they lend." This rewrites the entire finance textbook. Understanding credit creation, not savings pools, is foundational to MMT. #MMT

mmtmichael.substack.com

From Jewellers to GEMMs - by MMT_Michael - MMT's Substack

Banking as a System of Credit Creation

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Productivity suppresses inflation by reducing the unit cost. Hence capital-intensive firms prefer to produce more when they expect that they will sell more. But people can afford durable goods when their wages rise. So, wage increases are not inflationary. x.com/stlouisfed/s...

x.com

St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) on X

Productivity and inflation: What happens to producer prices across U.S. industries when productivity soars? https://t.co/XuiBk5CWut

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SolHafıza @gunluksolarsiv.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

25 Eylül 1996: Diyarbakır Cezaevi’nde 14 PKK hükümlüsü mahkumun Gaziantep Cezaevi’ne nakline karşı 24 Eylül’de tutuklu ve hükümlülerin başlattığı direnişi bastırma gerekçesiyle yapılan operasyonda, 10 mahpusun cop ve dipçik darbeleriyle dövülerek öldürüldüğü öğrenildi

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The theory behind inflation targeting argues that inflation expectations matter and CB have to take action in advance. Yet, CB of Mexico kept rates unchanged. Why? Because CBs target bank profits, not inflation: nonperforming loans eroding bank profits remain high. x.com/Banxico/stat...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

According to mainstream economics, bond holders foresee that inflation in September 2056 will climb to the highest level. This is nonsense. Indeed, bond yields rise as they expect further rate hikes from CBs and as their liquidity preference and risk appetite increased.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Your indicator of the probability of recession increases not before recessions, rather in recessions. Therefore it is a weak indicator. Why? Because it ignores debt of households and firms. Economies fall into recession when the change in interest rates exceeds real wage growth x.com/stlouisfed/s...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Firms finance long term real investments with loans as loan rates are stable and lower than bond rates in the expansion phases when investments rise They issue bonds and equities in order to replenish liquidity gap or to finance purchasing other firms or assets in recessions x.com/KansuYildiri...

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Matías Vernengo @nakedkeynes.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

We are delighted to announce the publication of Volume 14, Issue 3 of the Review of Keynesian Economics. We invite you to visit the website where you can read all the abstracts and download two free articles @elgarpublishing.bsky.social www.elgaronline.com/view/journal...

elgaronline.com

Review of Keynesian Economics Volume 14 Issue 3 (2026)

"Volume 14 (2026): Issue 3 (Aug 2026)" published on 01 Aug 2026 by Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Regarding the 'bubbles in financial markets':

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Jacobin Magazin @jacobinmagazin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Wenn Gewerkschaften Menschen vereinen, sind sie das beste Mittel gegen den Aufstieg der AfD. Vorausgesetzt, sie kämpfen statt nur zu verhandeln – und lenken Frust sowie Abstiegsängste in eine progressive, solidarische Bahn.

jacobin.de

Gewerkschaften sind die Antifa der Arbeitswelt

Die AfD profitiert von Unsicherheit und Frust in der Arbeitswelt. Gewerkschaften können dem Rechtsruck etwas entgegensetzen, aber nur wenn sie für eine solidarische Politik der Arbeit eintreten – und sich nicht mit der Rolle des Sozialpartners begnügen.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Türkiye’deki son yılların en büyük fon krizini Nûmedya24'ten Çağdaş Kaplan konuştuk: www.youtube.com/live/8qHiM5X...

youtube.com

Yatırımcı parasını geri alabilecek mi?

YouTube video by Nûmedya24

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?whispers? @whispers-actual.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

"Created money out of nothing by crediting deposit accounts of banks at the CB"

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Why does BoJ hike when inflation is 1.9%, below the target, but keep at -0.1% in 2023 when inflation hit 4.3%? Because real wages fell enough to make the demand for loans of SMEs and workers inelastic and bad loans eroding bank profits are offloaded. CBs target bank profits..

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

How has the CB provided immediately the liquidity to the banking system? Raised taxes or borrowed? None of them. Created money out of nothing by crediting deposit accounts of banks at the CB. Why don't economists object that it is inflationary as they do against welfare policies?

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The massive loss in income and savings of middle-income people who have invested their savings in this Ponzi scheme would have an impact of a massive layoffs as balance sheets are intertwined: Firms producing goods will face a fall in revenue and a rising debt-to-income ratio.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Excess inflow of cash into the Ponzi scheme has generated a greater amount of liabilities by driving prices of houses and cars up higher than the gains from assets (bonds and shares) by which the liquidity gap has been covered through repos and reverse repos.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Krizleri daha iyi anlamak için gerekli kavramlar: Borç paradoksu, sukünet paradoksu, likidite paradoksu, maliyet paradoksu, risk paradoksu 1.5 sene önceki yayın: www.youtube.com/live/XI9es0i...

youtube.com

Ekonomiyi paradokslarla anlamaya ne dersiniz?

YouTube video by Fikir TV

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

2023'te sevgili Selahattin Demirtaş birçok iktisatçı ile röportaj yapmıştı. Orada verdiğim bu cevap, bugünkü borsa sarsıntısını ima ediyordu: birartibir.org/radikal-bir-...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The Bank of England kept rates steady. Inflation in UK is 3.1%, in the USA 3.4%. Can this small difference explain why BoE kept rates unchanged, while the Fed raised? No. In UK real wages are positive (demand for loans is not yet enough inelastic) and bad loans are still high..

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

It was a Ponzi scheme and collapsed as cash outflows exceeded cash inflows.. Needless to say, high level of interest rates and strict credit creteria imposed by banks played a role in encouraging people to finance purchasing of cars and houses through this fund. x.com/business/sta...

x.com

Bloomberg (@business) on X

Tera Portfoy Yonetimi said two of its investment funds it manages have failed to meet redemption requests, becoming the second asset manager in Turkey to announce default on some funds. https://t.co/H...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

JPMorgan expected the S&P 500 to drop 1.25%-1.75% if the Fed doesn’t hike rates. The Fed hiked rates and S&P 500 fell. Either it was an idle threat as I noted 4 hours ago, or JP Morgan has no clue abouthow financial markets work.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Can a mainstream scholar explain why the Fed announced in March 2024 when inflation was at its current level that they will cut rates in August 2024 and raised today? Expectations? But expectations rose sharply in March 2026 when Trump launched the war against Iran and fell now?

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The Fed raised rates by 25 points- not when inflation was rising up to 4.2% in May, rather when fell to 3.4%. Why? Because - Demand for loans are now more inelastic as real wages fell and manufacturers are exposed to rising prices of raw materials - Big banks offloaded bad loans

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Long-term unemployment exerts a greater downward pressure on wages, as longer unemployed people are more inclined to accept lower wages since they have already accumulated too much debt, and firms prefer not to hire them due to the loss in their skills over time. x.com/KobeissiLett...

x.com

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X

US long-term unemployment is at crisis levels: The number of Americans unemployed for 27+ weeks surged +155,000 in August, to 1.93 million, the 4th-highest reading since December 2021. As a % of tot...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Yes, inflation targeting and privatisations worked well..

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Questions to mainstream economists: If inflation is demand-driven, why does wage-financed consumption spending cause inflation, credit-financed spending not? You make workers overindebted as they can't dare to strike?

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Now the Fed can comfortably raise rates as demand of manufacturers for loans will be enough inelastic -if bad loans have been sufficiently offloaded from balance sheets of big banks. Inflation is falling? No matter! CBs target bank profits, not inflation. x.com/FT/status/20...

x.com

Financial Times (@FT) on X

US manufacturers are paying sharply more for raw materials, energy and freight, with some input costs rising by double-digit rates, forcing companies to raise prices and threatening further pressure o...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

There is a bulk of empirical evidence showing that tax cuts do not stimulate investments unless demand is strong. Capitalists reinvest their profits after taxes in financial assets. Multiplier effect is higher for public investment and employment than tax cuts. x.com/unusual_whal...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Turkish neoliberals, including Daron Acemoglu, have been telling the narrative that foreign investors leave the country when the government does not obey the 'rule of law.' x.com/unusual_whal...

x.com

unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) on X

BREAKING: Foreign investors are now buying more US stocks than government bonds, for the first time this century, per FT

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Nina Eichacker @ninaecon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

New paper (open source!) out with the Cambridge Journal of Economics: it's about what Keynesian oriented supply-side policies might look like in our weird moment of climate change and other challenges: I hope you have a chance to check it out! t.co/yIZnjdIova

t.co

https://academic.oup.com/cje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cje/beag026/8796073?utm_source=authortollfreelink&utm_campaign=cje&utm_medium=email&guestAccessKey=0be597c1-99e8-4a5b-b035-2d57a417f73b

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Raise the oil prices, then push the Fed to hike rates over inflation fear. Earn both from rising oil prices, inflation and intrest rates.. Good game..

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

According to neoliberal clowns, inflation is rising because people spend and not save. Indeed, the direction of the causality is the other way around: Low- and middle-income groups draw on savings and debt to survive as their income has not increased as much as prices. x.com/unusual_whal...

x.com

unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) on X

Half of Americans are dipping into savings just to cover routine expenses due to inflation, per YF

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Jeff Powell @powelljr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

📢Applications open for PhD scholarships in Economics of Social & Ecological Sustainability at University of Greenwich (part of Economics Pathway within UBEL Doctoral Training Partnership). nb. Pre-registration deadline of 30 Oct www.gre.ac.uk/articles/bus...

gre.ac.uk

UBEL Economics of Social and Ecological Sustainability | Articles | University of Greenwich

A research pathway for those exploring the economics of social and ecological sustainability.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Is inflation demand-driven? If the real GDP growth rate is positive and higher and inflation is lower, when the real wage growth rate is positive and higher, then firms prefer to produce more rather than to raise prices when demand rises. Why? medium.com/@monetarypol...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Mortgage rates soar because demand for mortgage loans rise? According to mainstream economics, yes. Demand is falling. Number of home sellers outpaced buyers. How to explain then? Rising delinquency rate due to falling real wages and rising bond rates drive mortgage rates up.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Turkish government ran a surplus in August. 1-Did the government keep borrowing? Yes. Why does a government running surplus borrow? Not to finance the deficit, rather to control interest rates 2-Did inflation fall? No. Why? Because inflation is not demand-, rather supply-driven x.com/BloombergHT/...

x.com

Bloomberg HT (@BloombergHT) on X

Bütçe dengesi Ağustos'ta fazla verdi https://t.co/lO5gaDN4lA

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

23 large companies have applied for an initial public offering. Why do firms issue equities mostly when the economy contracts? 1- They replenish their liquidity gap caused by the fall in sales 2- They buy other firms or (financial) assets which have become cheaper. x.com/BloombergHT/...

x.com

Bloomberg HT (@BloombergHT) on X

Türkiye'de halka arz sırası bekleyen en büyük şirketler https://t.co/oaSCq20YGV

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Does inflation really persists? It fell from 4.2% in May down to 3.4% . Why has the Fed not raised rates when inflation was rising from 2.4% in December 2005 up to 4.2%? CBs do not and cannot fight inflation, they serve financial corporates and banks..

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Rational investors' self-fullfilling expectations: They're selling government bonds and buying oil which drives inflation up and pushes the Fed to hike rates. They earn both from inflation and the so-called counter-inflationary policies Did inflation fall thanks to rate hikes? No

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Comparing election results in Sweden and Germany: -real wage growth rate is higher than the loan rate -budget deficit + trade surplus foster private income and savings -bankruptcies and part-time employment have not increased -Government spent for the public, not for the military

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

This is not a forecast. This is an order. JP Morgan offloaded bad loans. Real wages fell enough to make the demand for loans inelastic.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Ekonomist İlhan Döğüş, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankası'nın enflasyon %4,1'ken faiz artırdığını, Türkiye'de ise %31 olmasına rağmen sabit tutulduğunu söyledi ve "Çünkü Yeni Zelanda'da bankaların kârlılıklarına zarar veren takipteki kredi oranı düşükken Türkiye'de yüksek" dedi. www.bbc.com/turkce/artic...

bbc.com

Ekonomistler TCMB'nin faizi %37'de tutma kararını nasıl yorumladı? - BBC News Türkçe

Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) bugünkü Para Politikası Kurulu (PPK) toplantısında, politika faizini %37'de sabit tutma kararı aldı.

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