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"US Treasury just bought back $6,000,000,000 of its own debt." .... But distinguished professors have been telling that bond rates are rising because the default risk of the government on its own debt has increased?

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If you raise interest rates instead of wages..

Raising doubt over AI spending? Now? They were very confident of high-tech stocks last year when jobs were cut. x.com/BullTheoryio...

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This is a short, yet incomplete, summary of Minsky. The decisive factors that drive economies into recessions are interest-rate hikes that exceed real wage growth, and austerity policies that suppress wage growth. x.com/RayDalio/sta...

Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) on X

Over long periods of time, debts tend to rise faster than incomes, creating the long-term debt cycle. Even as people become more indebted, lenders freely extend credit because during economic booms, ...

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Adverse side effects of the AI boom: -cash flows from bond markets to high-tech shares drive bond rates and mortgage rates up -expose other firms to a liquidity constraint by preventing them from closing the liquidity gap through equity issuances -encourage riskier positions x.com/BenjaminNort...

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Not 1 year ago, just 2 days ago, Nasdaq hit a record. And these financial investors changing their mind in 2 days are supposed to be rational and capable of forecasting the future? How can we consider expectations that overestimated the revenue of OpenAI by 40% as rational?

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Fallacy composition: Paradox of risk, paradox of liquidity, paradox of saving, paradox of cost, paradox of tranquility, paradox of debt. x.com/TyKeynes/sta...

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I wrote this tweet in May when they announced IPO. Recall that they have spent excessively. Now their revenue is less than anticipated. Thanks dear Jan Toporowski, Hyman Minsky and other post-Keynesians..

How to explain the rise in mortgage rates? Rising government bond rates and delinquency rates..

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- Issue equities to buy government bonds (or bonds of other corporates) when stock markets are inflated and bonds are underpriced - Issue corporate bonds to buy equities of other firms when bonds are overpriced (yields are low) and equities are underpriced. Financialisaton!

Possible reasons behind the IPO: -Liquidity gap to replenish: Repaying bank loans -Financial purchases: Overpriced shares of Anthropic can buy a greater amount of other underpriced firms or financial assets -Why not bond issuance?: Bonds are nowadays underpriced (yields are high)

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Porsche is set to layoff 9,000 workers due to low sales (Kalshi) A tweet from 2 months ago:

Why did they fail to repay their loans? Since real wages have been falling for 5 months and mortgage rates rising. Will they fail to repay only mortgage loans? Will only they fail? Since they cut spending, real sector will fail to meet their financial commitments. AI boom? Puff x.com/BullTheoryio...

Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) on X

BREAKING: 🇺🇸US banks seized 42% more homes in August than last year, as more Americans fail to repay back their loans. To make things worse, 30-year Mortgage rates shot up to 7.60%, highest since Nov...

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Can the modified Pasinetti Index explain crises/ recessions and election results in Türkiye? It seems, yes. When the change in real loan rates exceeds the real wage growth, GDP growth falls below its 10-year average (contracts) and AKP lose elections: 2018, 2024 and maybe today +

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Investor demand for IPO weakened because shares of high-tech firms seduced them with the expectation of greater capital gains. So, the AI boom prevents these firms from closing their liquidity gap by way of equity issuance. These firms will face a liquidity constraint. x.com/Kalshi_Finan...

Kalshi Finance (@Kalshi_Finance) on X

JUST IN: Wall Street’s IPO market is cooling as investor demand weakens

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A trade deficit higher than the budget deficit reduces the money supply. S-I=G-T+NX Yes, money supply increased in August, but it is mainly becase of the increase in loans granted exceeding the repaid loans.

Rising wage differential between white-collar and blue-collar workers and market concentration: The case of the USA, 1964-2007 | PSL Quarterly Review

College premium is mainly driven by the increase in market concentration as large firms employ and pay more white-collar worker performing innovative tasks to increase the market share: rosa.uniroma1.it/rosa04/psl_q...

rosa.uniroma1.it

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Now you can undertake more risky positions, dear stockholders, as you are overconfident thanks to corporate earnings. But keep in mind: Corporate earnings rise in the short run as wage costs fall before sales, and in the medium term, the fall in real wages reduces sales sharply x.com/ReutersBiz/s...

Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) on X

US stocks rose with the Nasdaq hitting a record high as optimism over corporate earnings outweighed concerns about rising Treasury yields https://t.co/Q87Fwc72l2

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Some investors are selling bonds due to the expected rate hikes of the Fed and buying stocks. Normally, rate hikes suppress stock prices by contracting the economy (firm profits) and speculative borrowing, but expectations fuelled by the AI bubble are feeding risk appetite. x.com/anthonypesec...

Anthony Pesec (@anthonypesec) on X

These two cannot coexist for long

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When real wages fall behind loan rates: -Higher demand for loans to survive: Bank profits rise -Spending cut to pay debt: Bad loans rise, bank profits fall -Debt payment destroys money: Income falls more -Illiquid assets sold to raise liquidity: Asset prices fall 👇🏾 Bankruptcies x.com/Kalshi_Finan...

Kalshi Finance (@Kalshi_Finance) on X

JUST IN: US wages are falling behind inflation for the 5th straight month

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Liberal economists: Rule of law, inclusive institutions and democracy are decisive to attact (financial) investors. @dacemoglumit.bsky.social could you please explain why financial investors appreciate the victory of a fascist based on your theory, without bastardizing the post-Keynesian theory?

Can the modified Pasinetti Index explain Lula's defeat? It seems, yes.. Real wages rose over the past year, yet the change in real loan rates outpaced the growth of real wages. As workers’ disposable income fell and their debt burden rose; bankruptcies soared, GDP growth declined

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"What is being traded in financial markets is the risk" (R. Wray). Then the issue is not past profits, but rather if future profits will cover the principal and interest payments of debt (hedge), just the interest (speculative) or incapable of even paying the interest (Ponzi)? x.com/leshka_eth/s...

Leshka.eth ⛩ (@leshka_eth) on X

Anthropic valuation - $2 trillion Samsung valuation - $1.35 trillion Anthropic 2025 revenue - $4.6 billion Samsung 2025 revenue - $236 billion

The top richest households are thankful to neoliberalism which has underpinned market concentration and financialisaton by way of inflation targeting and by cutting public investment and employment. x.com/KobeissiLett...

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X

Now take a look at the distribution of assets. The top 0.1% of US households hold nearly 60% of their assets in stocks and mutual funds. The next 9.9% and next 40% hold ~38% and ~13%, respectively. ...

The crucial factors behind the erosion of the middle class are missing in the analysis: - Dismantled social state: Austerity policies, cuts in public employment and investment - Defeat of trade unions - Fragmentation of production - The increase in market concentration x.com/KobeissiLett...

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X

The middle class is gone. According to Fed data, the top 1% of Americans now control ONE-THIRD of all US net worth. Since 2020, the top 1% have gained +$30 TRILLION in net worth, while the bottom 50% are worth just $4.3 trillion. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

If real investments were financed by savings, neither the economy would have grown (because more production requires an increase in the money supply) nor the ratio of stock values to GDP would have risen from 50% to 250% as investment expenditure generates GDP equal to or larger than itself.

In contraction phases the value of equities is high- enable greater fund raising through issuances, and bond rates are below loan rates, yet real investment appetite is lower. Hence, bonds and equities are issued to buy other cheap firms and replenish the liquidity gap.

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Why aren't real investments financed by stock and bond issuances? Because loan rates are stable, and the value of equities is yet lower and corporate bond rates are higher than loan rates in expansion phases of the business cycle when real investments are undertaken+

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

If AI suppresses white-collar workers' wages, it will suppress their ability to consume expensive products supplied by large firms, too, and thereby their markup pricing and market share. So, it's another paradox for large firms. x.com/Kalshi_Finan...

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İlke TV'de Şükran Ekinci ile fon skandalını, alınan önlemleri, ekonomiye etkilerini konuştuk: www.youtube.com/live/glLMk7O...

youtube.com

#CANLI | Fon soruşturması ve tedbirler çözüm getirecek mi? #ÖneÇıkanlar (2 Ekim 2026)

YouTube video by İlke TV

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A critical question regarding the fund crisis in Türkiye: Why did people possessing such a big amount of money invest in stocks instead of capital assets? Because as wages (=demand) are suppressed, the profit expected from real investment falls short of the profit expected from financial investment.

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

If wages are kept suppressed and interest rates are kept hiked, yes, it will crash, because productivity growth expected from AI will fail and debt growth will outpace income growth, and these capital expenditures driven by overconfidence will fail to meet financial commitments x.com/tonyannett/s...

Tony Annett (@tonyannett) on X

AI is the biggest capital expenditure of all time. If it crashes, it will be bad!

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The Fed and the ECB are stealing the role again. Inflation will cease once the conflict with Iran is resolved. Then CBs and neoliberals will pretend that inflation fell thanks to the rate hikes. Bankruptcies? This is indeed what they target: increasing market concentration x.com/ilhandogus/s...

ilhan dögüs (@ilhandogus) on X

1-the Fed stole the role. Rate hikes had no impact: demand for loan didn't fall. Inflation was caused by supply bottlenecks, not demand and fell after bottlenecks were ceased. 2-Consumption expenditur...

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Reposted by ilhan dögüs

MMTAction @mmt-action.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

"Banks don't lend out deposits: they create deposits when they lend." This rewrites the entire finance textbook. Understanding credit creation, not savings pools, is foundational to MMT. #MMT

mmtmichael.substack.com

From Jewellers to GEMMs - by MMT_Michael - MMT's Substack

Banking as a System of Credit Creation

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ilhan dögüs @ilhandogus.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Productivity suppresses inflation by reducing the unit cost. Hence capital-intensive firms prefer to produce more when they expect that they will sell more. But people can afford durable goods when their wages rise. So, wage increases are not inflationary. x.com/stlouisfed/s...