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Stephen Hunsaker

@hunsaker.bsky.social
3.1K followers 154 following 70 posts

Economist @ Resolution Foundation Analogue filmmaker and photographer

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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
But however it is paid for, the evidence is clear. Uplifts to LHA reach tenants, not landlords, and relieve cost-of-living pressures. Read the spotlight: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Saving private renters • Resolution Foundation
Local Housing Allowance (LHA), which caps how much support is provided through the social security system to low-income private renters, was last relinked to the 30th percentile of rents in April 2024...
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The Budget on 28 Oct should relink LHA to the 30th percentile of local rents from April 2027 and re-link every year. This would cost around £2bn a year by 2029-30. If that has to be paid for from within the welfare budget, one option would be to raise the taper rate in UC from 55 to 58 per cent.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Why did so little of the 2024 uplift leak to landlords? Most claimants already paid rent above the cap from other income. 58% of working-age adults in these families are materially deprived. One in five can't keep the home warm. Extra LHA likely goes on essentials, not into higher housing demand.
Bar chart for Great Britain, 2024-25. Among working-age adults in private-renting families on housing support, 58 per cent are materially deprived, 21 per cent cannot keep their home warm, 13 per cent cannot afford three meals a day and 13 per cent cannot afford fresh fruit and vegetables daily. The figures for all working-age adults are 12, 6, 4 and 4 per cent respectively.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
And claimants gained. The share of UC households whose rent exceeded their LHA fell from 67% to 46% when rates rose, and fell most where the uplift was biggest. 154,000 fewer households had a shortfall a year later, even as 124,000 more came onto LHA.
Bar chart showing the change in the proportion of Universal Credit households whose rent exceeds their LHA, for tertiles of English areas ranked by the size of the April 2024 uplift. The fall is 12 percentage points in the tertile with the smallest uplifts and 20 points in the tertile with the largest.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
When we look below the national average, we find that areas with bigger LHA uplifts saw only slightly bigger rent rises at the bottom of the market. Our central estimate is that around 10p in every pound of the uplift fed through to higher rents.
Bubble scatter of 150 English areas. The horizontal axis is the April 2024 cash uplift to the two-bedroom LHA rate. The vertical axis is the cash rise in the 30th percentile rent to 2026 relative to the 60th percentile. Bubbles are sized by the number of private renter households. The fitted line slopes gently upward, with a slope of 0.10.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Some argue that a higher LHA just feeds through to landlords as higher rents. If they had captured the rise, rents at the bottom of the market would have pulled away from the middle. After the 2024 uplift, they didn't. On average, rents at the 30th and 60th percentiles both rose 16.2% in 2 years.
Two-panel line chart of two-bedroom private rents in England at the 30th and 60th percentiles, indexed to April 2020 in the left panel and April 2024 in the right. In both panels the two lines rise together, with the 30th percentile growing no faster than the 60th after either relink.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
More than 1.1 million private renting families on UC already pay rent above their LHA. For a typical two-bed home, that shortfall is now £158 a month. In Inner East London it is £324. But the problem not confined to the capital with the gap now above £100 in more than half of all areas in England.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The gap between private rents and LHA hit 23% in March 2024, a record. Two years of freeze later, it is almost back at that level, and is due to pass that record in October. If nothing changes, it is projected to reach 30% by March 2028.
Line chart of the gap between private rents and Local Housing Allowance in Great Britain, April 2012 to March 2028. The gap rises through each freeze, falls sharply at the April 2020 and April 2024 relinks, and is projected to pass the March 2024 record of 23 per cent in October 2026, reaching 30 per cent by March 2028.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Local Housing Allowance, the cap on housing support that helps 1.9 million low-income private renting families, has been frozen since April 2024. Rents haven't. The gap between rents and support hits a record this October. Our new spotlight shows why the Budget should end the freeze 🧵
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
For more details, check out the full paper we published today www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2026 • Resolution Foundation
On the whole, the 2020s has been a disastrous decade for UK productivity growth. But an under-discussed revival appears to be underway. While the much-maligned Labour Force Survey’s headline number is...
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Britain’s productivity growth revival looks genuine, even if it’s still not obvious what’s causing it. It doesn’t seem to be investment, and it’s probably too early for AI. It’s something of a mystery – but not a bad one to be faced with.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Nor are low-paid jobs going within sectors: across 400+ occupations in the year to April 2025, jobs growth in below-median-pay roles was 2ppts stronger than above the median. Overall, shifting in employment across occupations did very little for pay growth.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Some claim that employer NICs and minimum wage rises shrank low-productivity sectors. We don't find that. Hospitality, for example, is still at its 2016-19 share of 6.6% of employee jobs. Almost all the pickup happened within sectors rather than due to reallocation between them.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The maths is mostly flatlining hours worked, which accounts for three-quarters of the recent productivity pickup, rather than faster output growth. But it’s more than just an inevitable impact of a cooling labour market: historically, UK productivity isn’t that cyclical.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Using admin data instead – HMRC payroll records plus self-assessment returns – productivity grew by 1.1% a year over the two years to Q2 2026, after falling 0.7% a year in the two years before. That's faster than the late 2010s. So what's behind it?
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Headline ONS figures say output per hour fell by 0.2% a year over the past two years. But they rest on the LFS, which recorded employment growth of 1.7% in 2025 while HMRC payroll data recorded a fall of 0.1%.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I have a new report out today with @simonpittaway.bsky.social on Britain's productivity revival – which is real, if it you measure it properly. And it isn’t being driven by the economy shedding low-paid jobs. 🧵
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Overall then relatively strong quarterly growth in UK exports reflecting stronger goods. Early signs of the impact of the Iran conflict are present, but as of yet the UK has not experienced the same scale of adjustment through its terms of trade.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The pain of Trump’s tariffs lingers with the rolling annual average of UK goods exports to the US down 9% compared to up 1% for the rest of the world. Cars have been particularly badly hit (-34%), while machinery and materials are falling short of growth experienced elsewhere.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The UK continues its trend of running an ever higher quarterly goods deficit while also running the highest quarterly services surplus – further cementing itself as a services-driven trade economy.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The World Trade Uncertainty Index shows that the impact of the Iran war is dwarfed by the uncertainty that Trump’s tariff war brought to global trade markets in 2025.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Despite a similar early spike in fuel prices, shown by the divergence between the value and volume of fuel imports, the UK’s terms of trade (the price of what we export relative to what we import) has not responded as in 2022 at the outset of the war in Ukraine.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Starting with the headline picture for Q2: Positive news for goods exports (in chained volume measure) which grew 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, outpacing services exports (0.8%). Non-EU goods exports grew 3.9% while EU goods exports fell 1.6%.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
New Q2 2026 UK trade data this morning. While the impact of the Iran war will be the first thing on people’s mind, it seems to still be too early to see the full pass-through effects on UK trade.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Can’t leave you on a positive note though… The fallout from the Iran war has led the Bank of England to downgrade its growth outlook and if the OBR follows suit, then come 28 October Healey could see his headroom shrink by £6bn - a tricky backdrop for his first Budget.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Regardless, for Burnham (and Healey) these figures will be welcome, as the stronger than expected growth in the first half of this year has left the economy a cumulative 0.4pp larger than the OBR forecast back in March.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
BUT still some way to go – GDP per capita remains 6.6% below its pre-pandemic trend.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
When it comes to living standards, GDP per capita is a more important indicator, and encouragingly, this measure is also doing okay. Growth in the latest quarter was 0.4%, close to the UK's long-run average – and much better than typical post-pandemic levels…
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The economic picture looks even better when compared against G7 peers, with the UK ranking the strongest performer for growth so far this year!
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The growth was primarily driven by services and construction, with no growth in production output. As usual, services were strong, with info and comms leading the pack at 2.7% growth, mainly driven by growth in computer programming activities, likely AI driven.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
0.4%. That is the headline figure for the UK economy in the second quarter of this year. While not quite as strong as last quarter (0.6%), growth was stronger than the Bank of England forecast at 0.3%.
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Eric Ansley Díaz 🏳️‍🌈 @geekboyeric.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
RIP Bonnie Tyler. And RIP Tandi Iman Dupree. This remains the best stage entrance by a drag queen of all time, even some 25 years later, and the best use of Tyler’s “Holding Out for a Hero” ever. youtu.be/IHQA5vqn6rw?...
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 22/06/2026
...Make sure you read the full report by @sophiehale.bsky.social @simonpittaway.bsky.social & @hunsaker.bsky.social Leaving EU Behind: How Britain lost its trading edge and whether Brexit is to blame www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Leaving EU behind • Resolution Foundation
A decade after the Brexit vote, the UK has lost its trading edge in goods faster and more broadly than any G7 peer. This briefing note explores why that has happened, and what the Government must do t...
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 27/06/2026
Why is the UK such an outlier on trade? Most countries have pretty consistent exports from one decade to the next, but in the past 5 years the UK’s trade profile has lurched in the opposite direction to almost everyone else. On our substack, @hunsaker.bsky.social digs in to what has happened⬇️
buff.ly
Britain is doubling down, as other economies rebalance their trade.
Most countries have pretty consistent exports from one decade to the next. Stephen Hunsaker asks why the UK’s trade profile has lurched in the opposite direction to almost everyone else.
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Chris Drew @mesnilman.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
With a h/t to @anandmenon.bsky.social (and all at UK in a Changing Europe) as well as @jonnelledge.bsky.social (just avoid reading BTL in the Guardian article)
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
"The government's argument sounds plausible. There's just one problem. It doesn't fit the facts. And the government knows it." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
There’s only one problem with Labour’s immigration plans: they’re completely untethered from reality | Jonathan Portes
The government’s new policy will take us back to an uglier, more dangerous place – and it’s not even supported by the data, says professor of public policy Jonathan Portes
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Peter Foster @pmdfoster.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Labour wants to curb immigration: but doesn't want to engage in social care reform It wants to curb student visas and encourage more UK training: but wont fund unis or FE colleges. It just tells voter they can have both. /2
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British Future @britishfuture.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
59% of the public, and 64% of 2024 Labour voters, agree that migrants living in the UK and paying taxes should be eligible to apply for citizenship after five years or less, according to our new Focaldata research. www.britishfuture.org/white-paper-... #ImmigrationWhitePaper
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Trump hasn’t named the UK as a tariff target… but it’s not ‘if’, it’s ‘when’ says @hunsaker.bsky.social 👇 www.express.co.uk/news/politic...
express.co.uk
Donald Trump disaster looms for Keir Starmer in ticking timebomb for UK | Politics | News | Express.co.uk
It's less a question of 'if' when it comes to one Donald Trump tactic and more a question of 'when?'.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
👀 Ummmmm excuse me Jim Shannon…
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
I know amist Trump tariff news that the PEM Convention is on sooooo many people’s mind. Tl:dr PEM will have modest impact on UK trade, but it can be a decent first step in a UK-EU ‘reset’ for trade. Can also listen starting at 38 mins on Moncole. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com
Netanyahu goes to Washington
Podcast Episode · The Globalist · 02/03/2025 · 58m
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Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Very grateful for the support 🙏🏾
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
I completely agree, the message from this cabinet is clear: it is not ‘business as usual’
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
I completely agree, I think the message from this selected cabinet is it will not ‘business as usual’
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Tl;dr The UK should take a two ponged approach: focus first on closing loopholes in the current system while doing that start the long process of implementing a wealth tax in the future. ukandeu.ac.uk/is-it-time-f...
ukandeu.ac.uk
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
As always @emilyfry.bsky.social is coming in with quick and brilliant analysis of ONS trade data. Some worrying services number to watch while some growth in non-EU goods. Definitely give her a follow!
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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
This week's edition of MFN looks at what a UK-US Free Trade Agreement (or rather, free trade agreement) could look like. Also why I'd hate to be the Pitcairn islands right now. mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/a-uk-us-fr...
mostfavourednation.substack.com
A UK-US Free Trade Agreement?
And why the Falklands and Pitcairn are at risk
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Not sure why they are livid, pretty sure they won’t be around when it is taxed.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
While a man who said Prozac is the cause of school shootings is being put in charge of health in the US, in London I went and saw Roots with Morfydd Clark at Almeida Theatre and thought it was very well done and would recommend it. You win some you lose some.
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Stephen Hunsaker @hunsaker.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
BON IVER 👌
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