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John Horvick

@horvick.bsky.social
549 followers 166 following 1.2K posts

DHM Research, Senior Vice President

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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Oregon party registration by vote frequency. The Democratic advantage is greatest among the most consistent voters.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The last Republican to win statewide in Oregon was Dennis Richardson in 2016. This map compares Drazan's 2022 election performance to Richardson's in 2016. Red counties are where Drazan did worse, and green counties are where she did better.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Current account balances for Oregon gubernatorial candidates. Tina Kotek: $8.4 million Christine Drazan: $780k
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The University of Michigan released final September consumer sentiment numbers today. Here are the monthly changes by party. Democrats 35.6 (-4.6) Independents 47.7 (-0.3) Republicans 77.2 (-4.8)
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Yesterday, the Oregon Department of Education released the updated number of teacher FTE. Here are the total teacher FTE and the number of students per teacher from 2004 to 2026.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
By my count, Oregon voters will consider 65 local funding measures in the November election.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Average age of Oregon's congressional delegation from 1901 to 2025.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Updates from the National Youth Behavior Risk Survey are out today. Lots here, but this stood out to me. Improvements across the board on youth mental health.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Updated reported crime totals for Portland. This is through August 2026.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Current campaign account balances for Oregon gubernatorial candidates. Tina Kotek: $8.1 million Christine Drazan: $2.7 million Brett Smith: $0
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Is the economy good or bad? -Real median incomes reach a new high -Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low -Most people continue to report doing okay financially -Just about an average share of Americans report the economy is the US's most important problem
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A new tool is available that lets people look up energy trends by state. Things like cost, sources, and reliability: usenergydata.org Here are a few for Oregon. Share electricity generation by source
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
. DHM Research recently asked Oregonians about AI regulations. -62% oppose keeping state AI regulations minimal -89% support requiring AI companies to run safety tests and report risks to the state
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Updated Oregon voter registration totals are out today. Here are the monthly changes by party. Total +11,060 Non-affiliated +9,724 Democrat +881 Other parties +263 Ind. Party of Oregon +240 Republican -48
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The drop in consumer sentiment this month is driven by increasingly negative expectations about the future. Current conditions (left) Dem 41.5 (-1.7) Ind 50.2 (+0.7) Rep 73.8 (-0.5) Expectations (right) Dem 31.2 (-7.0) Ind 47.4 (+0.4) Rep 73.2 (-13.7)
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The University of Michigan released preliminary September consumer sentiment numbers today. Here are the monthly changes by party. Democrats 35.2 (-5.0) Independents 48.5 (+0.5) Republicans 73.4 (-8.6)
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Data centers are big in Oregon elections. It seems to me that AI will be the much bigger governing challenge. DHM Research recently asked Oregonians: AI in schools? AI in state government? Support for businesses to use AI? Hopefully we'll hear more from candidates about this.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The final registration and turnout statistics for Oregon's primary election are out today. Lots to go through. Turnout by county Highest: Wallowa, Sherman, Gilliam Lowest: Malheur, Umatilla, Multnomah
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The final registration and turnout statistics for Oregon's primary election are out today. Lots to go through. Here are the total number of registered voters by age for primary elections from 2018 to 2026.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Percentages of ages 16+ in the labor force by Oregon House of Representatives district (2025)
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
As of today, the Kotek campaign (left) has $9 million and the Drazan campaign (right) has $3.8 million.
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Reposted by John Horvick
John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Election season in Oregon is here and @pdxcityclub.bsky.social is kicking off its fall series on Sept 11. Please join me, @jmshumway.bsky.social, @shanedkavanaugh.bsky.social, and @timnesbittor.bsky.social as we discuss the key races and issues. pdxcityclub.org/event/electi...
pdxcityclub.org
July 17: Oregon’s Economic Landscape Panel Discussion – City Club of Portland
Oregon workers, business owners, community organizations, and governments are all feeling economic strain in different ways. Many are asking what comes next for the state economy, but often within the...
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
What are Portland City Council candidate talking about on their websites? I reviewed websites for 24 candidates and coded the themes. I've broken this out by Districts 3 & 4, incumbents and challengers, and Peacock and moderates. The % represents the share of websites that mention that issue.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I used Claude to review and code every available website for the Democratic and Republican candidates for the Oregon House of Representatives. This is the share of websites by party that mention an issue.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Drazan doesn't post here, but she posted 24 times on X in August. I coded the text. Named in the posts -Trump: 0 -Kotek: 6 Top issue themes -Community/campaign events: 7 -Cost of living: 5 -Economy and jobs, The Drazan Plan: 4 -Wildfire, rural rights, coalition, transportation, election framing: 3
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Kotek posted 41 times on Bluesky in August. I coded the text. Named in the posts: - Trump: 19 - Drazan: 17 Top issue themes: - Federal overreach: 9 - Immigration: 6 - Abortion, cost of living: 5 each - Health care, housing, food assistance, climate and energy, voting rights, endorsements: 4 each
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Americans' expectations that retirement income will maintain their living standards are diverging by education and income. It's not so much that less-educated and lower-income Americans became more pessimistic. It's that college grads and higher earners became more optimistic.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The final August consumer sentiment numbers are out today from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. Here are the changes by party. Democrats 40.2 (-2.6) Independents 48.0 (-1.3) Republicans 82.0 (-6.2)
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
In 2024, Portland dropped primary elections and instituted ranked-choice voting in the general. Portland also instituted district elections. Here is how the number of citywide primary candidates compares to the number RCV district candidates.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Election season in Oregon is here and @pdxcityclub.bsky.social is kicking off its fall series on Sept 11. Please join me, @jmshumway.bsky.social, @shanedkavanaugh.bsky.social, and @timnesbittor.bsky.social as we discuss the key races and issues. pdxcityclub.org/event/electi...
pdxcityclub.org
July 17: Oregon’s Economic Landscape Panel Discussion – City Club of Portland
Oregon workers, business owners, community organizations, and governments are all feeling economic strain in different ways. Many are asking what comes next for the state economy, but often within the...
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Women have been particularly successful in Multnomah County Commission elections. This year, there are 10 candidates for MultCo County Commission, three for chair and seven for District 2. All three candidates for chair are women. Two of the candidates for District 2 are women.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Yesterday was the deadline to file for the November election in Oregon. This is the first Multnomah County Commission election without a primary. All candidates run in November general using ranked-choice voting. This shows # of 2026 candidates compared to past primaries.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Portland Public Schools released its updated enrollment forecasts this week. Here is how the current forecast compares to the previous projections.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Share of the total population of each state's largest city. Portland is 15% of Oregon. Seattle is 9% of Washington.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Oregon's Democratic candidates for governor used to run even with or ahead of the state's presidential vote. Since 2010, they have run behind it by 3 to 8 points. Two-party share comparing the gubernatorial election to the previous presidential election.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Some public transportation numbers for the Portland metro area. Left: TriMet monthly total ridership from January 2002 to June 2026 Right: Transportation mode to work % & median income by transportation mode to work
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
PSU Population Center also forecasts that in 2027, Multnomah County will have more people ages 80+ than <5.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Multnomah County is now projected to have more seniors than children, according to new figures from PSU's Population Research Center. The gap is expected to grow over the next decade.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Births by Oregon women ages 15 to 50 in the last 12 months: 2010 to 2024. Left: total number of women with births Right: births per 1,000 women
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Percentage of never-married women and men in Oregon by educational attainment (ages 25+).
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
College attainment trends in Oregon by age and gender.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Self-reported political ideology of Oregon voters. From DHM Research's July 2026 statewide survey
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
This index consist of measures about current conditions and future expectations. These are the monthly changes by party. The largest drop was Republican expectations. Current Dems -4.3 Ind +0.6 Rep -6.1 Expectations Dems -3.3 Ind -1.6 Rep -11.8
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
The University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer sentiment numbers are out today. Here are the changes by party. Democrat 39.1 (-3.7) Independent 48.5 (-0.8) Republican 78.7 (-9.5) These the lowest numbers for Republicans during Trump's second term.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Estimated turnout by age and gender in the Oregon 2026 primary election. Turnout was about 1 to 3 points higher for women than men until age 75.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Oregon turnout by party in midterm general elections
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
We found something in DHM Research's new survey that nearly all Oregonians agree with. 93% of Oregonians support requiring businesses to disclose when they are talking to an AI chatbot instead of a person.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
The Oregonian August 2, 1960 Big Crowds Throng Lloyd as 70 shops open doors
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Reposted by John Horvick
John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
How are Oregonians feeling about "the economy"? Two different answers. Ratings of Oregon's economic conditions have plummeted. However, most Oregonians continue to rate their personal financial situations as good. From DHM Research statewide surveys.
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John Horvick @horvick.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
DHM Research has new survey results about AI. We found that 83% of Oregonians support banning the use of AI-generated images in political campaign advertising. This is supported by 89% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 85% of non-affiliated & third-party voters.
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