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Shaun Hendy

@hendysh.bsky.social
2.3K followers 1K following 388 posts

Physicist, complex systems, ex-COVID modeller, he/him Author of "The Covid Response" www.bwb.co.nz/books/the-covid-respo…

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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Lived < 1 year in provinces that happened to have the Ranfurly Shield.
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Ted McCormick @tedmccormick.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
refuting every claim anybody makes is not in fact how science, or any discipline, works discarding approaches that have proven fruitless or wrongheaded, not stopping to re-litigate them every time someone digs up a junk data set or a retracted article they wish were true, is how disciplines move
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Yes, we are at the low end figure.nz/chart/ffzLj7...
figure.nz
Basic research expenditure in New Zealand and select OECD countries
2013, % of GDP
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Yes, Marsden would fall into GAK I think, but not all GAK is ‘pure’ research
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Full corrected reanalysis, methodology, and reproducible code/data are available here: github.com/hendysh/PMSI...
github.com
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
None of this is about whether reallocating science funding is a bad idea. Maybe there is a case to be made? But it illustrates the perils of centrally prioritising funding without using the right data to make meaningful comparisons with other countries. 8/n
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
There’s also a structural story: NZ’s public R&D system is unusually centralised - much more funding is targeted by central government compared to SAE peers (~60% in NZ vs ~40% in SAEs). And the current reform centralises decision-making further. 7/n
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
The strongest finding in my reanalysis is that social sciences and humanities are dramatically underweighted in NZ (humanities receives just one fifth of the share of funding it does in the SAEs), and these aren’t well covered by the government’s four new funding pillars. 6/n
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
The case for the flagship “Technology for Prosperity” funding boost mostly evaporates. NZ’s Engineering & Technology spend is already near parity with SAE peers. The proposed reallocation would push it ~28% above the average: an overshoot, not a correction. 5/n
The figure compares FORD for NZ, NZ proposed, and SAE average.
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Once I correct for this and build a 14-country SAE comparator group, some findings hold up, some don’t: ✅ Agriculture really is overweighted - proportionally, NZ spends ~3x the SAE average ❌ Environmental science overweighting? The evidence is much weaker than claimed 4/n
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
What this means: the raw data makes it look like Switzerland barely funds health research (~1%). In reality Switzerland just funds health research at arm’s length from central government (23% if you look at field-of-research data). Excluding untargeted funding distorts apparent priorities. 3/n
Figure shows GBARD data for NZ and a selection of SAEs, making the point that most public R&D funding in SAEs is untargeted, something that MBIE's analysis ignores
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Earlier this year MBIE benchmarked NZ against small advanced economies using raw government R&D budget data. Problem: for most SAEs, 40–90% of that budget sits in an untargeted “general advancement of knowledge” category, funding that MBIE's analysis ignores. 2/n
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
New Zealand’s government plans to reallocate >$100m in science funding, partly justified by claims NZ “overweights” ag & environmental science vs peers, and underinvests in tech. I checked the numbers behind that claim. Some of it holds up. Most of it doesn’t. 🧵 www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/...
mbie.govt.nz
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Look forward to reading this :)
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Our infrastructure is built from liberal tears
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Helen Pearson @helenpearson.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
NEW: Is there a 'crisis' of public trust in science? It can feel that way — with attacks on research in the US and growing rejection of vaccines. I investigated for @nature.com - and found some surprises. My feature article is out today and a short🧵here www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Have people stopped trusting science? The data tell a surprising story
Some say there’s a global crisis of trust — but research reveals where the real problems lie.
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on "information not held"
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Technically the OIA applies to intangible information not yet written down (presumably whatever was in the PMs head when he said that) but I've yet to see an OIA response that has surfaced that kind of thing.
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The Fox and Franz Josef glaciers in the South Island of New Zealand come down to about 300m above sea level
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Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New @bmj.com piece by me & @martinmckee.bsky.social on the need for the UK's public health institutions to prepare to speak up in the event of a populist government set on undermining our population's health protections. The tea leaves aren't that mysterious. www.bmj.com/content/393/...
Screen shot of the top bit of the BMJ article
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Julie Blommaert @drjulieb.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Academics and scientists are absolutely meant to fill this role in society. Ethics and integrity at fundamental to our work, we cannot simply stand by while these things are ignored in broader society
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NZAS - New Zealand Association of Scientists @nzscientists.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Scientific Workers Medal: Awarded for essential and significant contributions to science through application of technical skill and knowledge in a technical support role. scientists.org.nz/scientific_w...
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NZAS - New Zealand Association of Scientists @nzscientists.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Please familiarise yourself with the instructions before submitting. The closing date for all applications is 5pm Monday 3rd August 2026. Find out how to apply here --> scientists.org.nz/how-to-apply
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NZAS - New Zealand Association of Scientists @nzscientists.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Cranwell Medal: This award is made annually to a practising scientist (or group of scientists) for excellence in communicating science to the general public, in any area of science or technology. scientists.org.nz/cranwell/
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NZAS - New Zealand Association of Scientists @nzscientists.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Hill Tinsley Medal: Awarded for outstanding fundamental or applied research in the physical, natural or social sciences published during the year of the award or the preceding three calendar years. scientists.org.nz/hill-tinsley/
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NZAS - New Zealand Association of Scientists @nzscientists.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Shorland Medal: Awarded to an individual or to a team in recognition of major and continued contribution to basic or applied research that has added significantly to scientific understanding or resulted in significant benefits to society. scientists.org.nz/shorland/
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NZAS - New Zealand Association of Scientists @nzscientists.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Marsden Medal: Awarded for a lifetime of outstanding service to the cause or profession of science, in the widest connotation of the phrase. scientists.org.nz/marsden/
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Cilla Wehi @cillaw.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Researchers and NZ science communicators- why not apply for these gongs, with ethical expert assessment committees? I treasure the one I was awarded a few years back.
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NZAS - New Zealand Association of Scientists @nzscientists.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
We're pleased to announce applications are now open for NZ Association of Science's 2026 Medals. The closing date for all applications is 5pm Monday 3rd August 2026. The medals are ... scientists.org.nz/Awards (1/7)
Picture of the NZ Association of Scientists medal
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Technically it’s 100 years since the *government* starting funding science in New Zealand; the public was funding science here long before the government got in on the act
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Great writing Kate and such an interesting topic
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Kate Evans @kategevans.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
500 years ago, people starting building pā all over northern NZ—fortifying their settlements with rows of palisades, cut from nearby bush. Why? What were pā defending—or trying to say? The trees themselves, combined with mātauranga Māori, tell a story. www.nzgeo.com/stories/the-... 🇳🇿🧪 #archaeology
nzgeo.com
The pā builders
Five hundred years ago, people starting building pā all over northern New Zealand—fortifying their settlements with rows of pointed palisades, cut from the surrounding forests. Why? What were pā defen...
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Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Increasing risk of climate extremes is more than bigger versions of normal conditions: more intense heatwaves, droughts, floods. Variance is changing, distributions are skewing & tails are getting fatter. And events can combine in space & time to have compounding impacts. More in this week's post 👇
predirections.substack.com
Compounding crises and the colour of tennis balls
Nine signals on climate extremes, ecological justice, academic rejection, and an unexpected legacy (Nexus Notes #28)
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Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles @siouxsiew.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
It's day 14 of #MenstrualHealthAwarenessMonth, and today's topic is a big news story from this week about the rebranding of an important condition. Say goodbye to #PCOS and hello to #PMOS! Long thread incoming... And it gets personal! 1/16 #PeriodFriendlyWorld
In the top left hand corner of the image is a bright blue speech bubble with the words P.C.O.S is getting a name change. Below this is a large typographic composition. With black capslock text that says P.M.O.S Polyendocrine Metabolic Ovary Syndrome. In the top right hand corner is a many pointed blue and white star fading off into the corner.
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Katie Hinde @mammalssuck.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
"For too long, the university has ignored the wisdom of the donor class and hired based on academic excellence. Regrettably, this has led to the underrepresentation of discredited viewpoints in elite higher education." www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/wer...
mcsweeneys.net
We’re Diversifying the University by Hiring More Crackpots
“For too long, the university has ignored the wisdom of the donor class and hired based on academic excellence. Regrettably, this has led to the underreprese...
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
There ought to be a medal for this www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
theguardian.com
French professor accused of ‘gigantic hoax’ after inventing Nobel-style prize
Authorities investigate Florent Montaclair over award given to himself and others including Noam Chomsky
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Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles @siouxsiew.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
It's day 4 of #MenstrualHealthAwarenessMonth, and today we ask: what do you call your period? Here are just a few of the English euphemisms I found online. Time of the month. Shark week. Having the painters in. A visit from Aunt Flo. Surfing the crimson wave. Code red. #PeriodFriendlyWorld 1/16
The phrases "shark week",  "having the painters in", "code red", and "aunt flo" in red capital letters on a cream textured background, reminiscent of an expensive card, with two subtle starburst shapes overlaid, one in the top right corner and one in the bottom left.
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Any one else get an invite to this? Weird feeling to be personally targeted by a misinformation campaign sponsored by the US government. Ping @sanjanah.bsky.social
The Engineering Biology Research Consortium (EBRC), with funding from the US Department of State, is convening a series of virtual listening sessions to gather international perspectives on policy and oversight approaches for “dangerous gain of function research” (DGOFR). 

We are writing to invite you to participate in a session with other international policy, biosafety, and research professionals focused on strengths and gaps of current approaches to DGOFR oversight.

We will be holding two sessions to accommodate participants in different time zones across the world. We ask that you register for the session that best fits your schedule:The Biden Administration allowed dangerous gain-of-function research within the United States with insufficient levels of oversight. It also actively approved, through the National Institutes of Health, Federal life-science research funding in China and other countries where there is limited United States oversight or reasonable expectation of biosafety enforcement.

This recklessness, if unaddressed, may lead to the proliferation of research on pathogens (and potential pathogens) in settings without adequate safeguards, even after COVID-19 revealed the risk of such practices.
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Nic Rawlence @nicrawlencenz.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Want to do a PhD @universityofotago.bsky.social on climate impacts on #NZ vertebrates w/ Michael Knapp, @plubbe.bsky.social, @atennyson.bsky.social & me? Comes w/ fully funded scholarship & will investigate climate extinction risks using genomics & niche modelling evol.mcmaster.ca/brian/evoldi...
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The ‘mechanism’ (or rather the maths) is that an immunologically naive individual is susceptible to a wide range of variants, so if you observe an infection in a naive individual it is less likely to be a more recent variant than an infection in someone with some immunity to older variants
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Bridget Williams Books @bwbnz.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Advance copies of 'The Valley' by Asher Emanuel have landed in our office! 'This is journalism at its finest – immersive, meticulous, honest and brave.' – Rebecca Macfie 'The Valley: Crime and Punishment in a New Zealand City' arrives in May. Preorder today. bwb.co.nz/books/the-va...
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
It's almost as if sustained policymaking with this aim could have steadily reduced our reliance on fossil fuels over the past couple of decades www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/3609...
thepress.co.nz
30,000 extra cycling trips in two weeks as Christchurch ditches cars for fuel crisis
Cycling in Christchurch has jumped 34% in two weeks as the fuel crisis forces commuters to rethink how they travel.
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Dr Sanjana Hattotuwa @sanjanah.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Re-upping this thread from 2yrs ago given the judgement in my case: Julian Batchelor 'wholly unsuccessful' in defamation claim against TVNZ www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609... As Prof @hendysh.bsky.social noted as well, billionaires behind far-right's lawfare lead to widespread chilling effects. #nzpol
stuff.co.nz
Julian Batchelor ‘wholly unsuccessful’ in defamation claim against TVNZ
Julian Batchelor’s defamation claim against TVNZ has been thrown out.
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
So pleased to see that the defamation claims against @sanjanah.bsky.social and @tvnz.bsky.social did not succeed. It’s still very concerning to see billionaires attempt to stifle public discourse through the courts. Who would want to put themselves through that? www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...
stuff.co.nz
Julian Batchelor ‘wholly unsuccessful’ in defamation claim against TVNZ
Julian Batchelor’s defamation claim against TVNZ has been thrown out.
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Shaun Hendy @hendysh.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
I’m calling for a moratorium on Large Lingerie Models
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Michael Plank @michaelplanknz.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Good article on meningitis and the UK outbreak that has caused 2 deaths Meningitis cases have recently been confirmed on campuses in NZ too Reminder that in NZ U25s in "close living situations" like halls of residence can get MenB and MenACY vaccines FREE. Most uni health services can provide this
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Bridget Williams Books @bwbnz.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Watch the trailer for 'Garrison World: Redcoat Soldiers in New Zealand and across the British Empire' by Professor Charlotte Macdonald, shortlisted for the BookHub Award for Illustrated Non-Fiction in the Ockham New Zealand Book Awards 2026! 🎥 @reverie_nzl #booktrailer #bwb
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Veronika Meduna @veronikameduna.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
NZ released the COVID inquiry (phase two), with four main lessons and recommendations calling for better integration of disease surveillance systems, expansion of epidemiological modelling capability, and more structured decision-making frameworks during a crisis theconversation.com/covid-inquir...
theconversation.com
COVID inquiry phase two: 4 main lessons to improve NZ’s future pandemic resilience
The second COVID inquiry report reinforces that pandemics are not only health emergencies but also social crises, requiring attention to cohesion and equity.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 08/03/2026
Repping @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social in the desert of New Mexico.
The poster, wearing a black Te Pūnaha Matatini shirt against the white dunes of White Sands National Park
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