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Helmi Räisänen

@helmiraisanen.bsky.social
623 followers 1.1K following 78 posts

Postdoctoral Fellow @FIIA; Visiting Researcher @Uni Helsinki | A professional pessimist into crisis management; environmental security; critical minerals, fertiliser, and pharmaceutical supply chains; pandemic preparedness; AMOC collapse

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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Jee, meidän kolmivuotisen hankkeen loppuraportti on ulkona! Se paisui melkein 300 sivuiseksi. Ainakaan ei voi kukaan valittaa konkreettisten esimerkkien puutteesta siitä, miten ympäristökriisi voi vaikuttaa Suomen huoltovarmuuteen :-)
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
A striking climate-model result suggests AMOC may have a rate-induced tipping point. 👉 Slow CO₂ increase: AMOC stable to +5.5°C 👉 Faster increase: collapse around +2°C Same climate system. Very different outcome. The rate of warming matters. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change - Nature Climate Change
Climate change is expected to alter oceanic circulation, with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at risk of collapse. This work shows that the stability of the AMOC is dependent on...
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Mikael A. Manninen @mamanninen.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Ihan kuin olisi tutkimusryhmämme tapaamiset neljään ruutuun piirrettynä. 😏
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the Juice Media @thejuicemedia.com · 11/08/2026
The Government™ has made an ad about Ai Data Centres, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative.
youtube.com
Honest Government Ad | Ai Data Centres
YouTube video by thejuicemedia
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Welcome to the world of “shifting baseline syndrome,” where the absence of other species is quietly becoming the norm
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Ville Niinistö @villeniinisto.vihreat.fi · 26/06/2026
Asiantuntijaraportti varoittaa eurooppalaisten yhteiskuntien häiriönsietokyvyn ja ruokaturvan vaarantumisesta, ellei Euroopan unioni onnistu pysäyttämään ja kääntämään luonnonvaraisten pölyttäjien katoa ja tukemaan tarhattujen mehiläisten elinolosuhteita. www.uef.fi/fi/artikkeli...
uef.fi
Kansainvälinen asiantuntijaraportti varoittaa Eurooppaa uhkaavasta kriisistä, ellei pölyttäjäkatoa onnistuta pysäyttämään
Tuoreessa tiekartassa esitetään keinoja luonnonvaraisten pölyttäjäkantojen elvyttämiseksi ja tarhattujen mehiläisten suojelemiseksi.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 21/06/2026
This discussion puts its finger squarely on one of the two thorniest issues of geoengineering - namely that, to succeed, it would require multidecadal stable and rational governance of the countries and entities involved. How's that going, these days?
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
We can't decarbonize our way out of resource overuse through cleaner production/technological fixes alone. Demand reduction is essential: material efficiency, sufficiency and societal participation can deliver substantial emissions cuts within realistic resource limits.
nature.com
Demand-side innovation is the priority for decarbonizing materials - Nature Reviews Materials
Global industrial emissions from bulk materials continue to rise despite climate policies. This Perspective uses an illustrative resource-constrained model of a national transition to net zero to show...
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Heard of "multiple breadbasket failures" - simultaneous crop failures across major agricultural regions? A recent paper shows that unprecedented global droughts don't require record-breaking droughts everywhere. Systemic risk can emerge from combinations of moderate shocks.
nature.com
Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events - Nature Communications
The study shows that global record shattering droughts across major maize producing regions become more likely this century and typically arising from concurrent moderately extreme droughts rather tha...
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
New metaphor just dropped
nytimes.com
Huge American Flag Flies Into Power Lines, Knocking Out Power for Thousands
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Saatiin Ilmatieteen laitoksen johdolla lisää rahaa AMOCin tutkimiseen! 🌊 The Government is funding our research project on the AMOC, led by the Finnish Meteorological Institute! valtioneuvosto.fi/-/1410903/su...
valtioneuvosto.fi
Suomi varautuu Atlantin valtameren kiertoliikkeen (AMOC) heikkenemiseen – uusi tutkimushanke käynnistyy
Ilmatieteen laitoksen vetämä tutkimus tuottaa ensimmäistä kertaa kuvauksen Atlantin valtameren kiertoliikkeen (AMOC) heikkenemisen vaikutuksista Suomeen. Valtioneuvoston rahoittama HIIPUVA-hanke vahvi...
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
Been seeing a lot of such graphs in recent years 😬 #BraveNewWorld
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
“We found that the Amoc is going to decline more than expected compared to the average of all climate models. This means we have an Amoc that is closer to a tipping point.” - Dr Valentin Portmann www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought
Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Read our opinion piece on AMOC! Now!
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
It’s not the average outcome of global warming we should fear. It’s the extremes already possible under “moderate” warming. New study: even ~2 °C warming can produce climate impacts as severe as average projections at 3–4 °C. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
It's crazy how reliant the world's entire energy system is on one body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, just 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest, and situated in one of the most volatile regions on Earth. Here are the countries most dependent on oil&gas through the strait.
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Kiinnostava tapahtuma tulossa! Pääsen paneeliin keskustelemaan datatalouden kriittisistä raaka-aineista
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ymparistotiedonfoorumi.fi @ymparistotiedonfoorumi.fi · 16/03/2026
Ohjelma on nyt julkaistu! 2026 YHYS Politiikkadialogi Datatalouden materiaalinen kestävyys pureutuu datatalouden materiaalisiin reunaehdoihin. 📅 23.4.2026, klo 9-12 📍 Marsio Living Room, Aalto-yliopisto + striimi Lisätietoja ja ilmoittautuminen: www.ymparistotiedonfoorumi.fi/yhys-politii...
ymparistotiedonfoorumi.fi
YHYS Politiikkadialogi: Datatalouden materiaalinen kestävyys - Ympäristötiedon foorumi
Datataloutta kuvataan usein kevyenä ja aineettomana kasvun moottorina. Vuoden 2026 Politiikkadialogi kääntää katseen sen materiaaliseen todellisuuteen: energiaan, luonnonvaroihin ja ihmistyöhön, jotka...
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Kiinnostaako Atlantin meridionaalisen kiertoliikkeen (AMOC) hiipuminen ja sen vaikutukset? Tule kuulolle webinaariin to 26.3. klo 9-10! Haastattelen aiheesta Ilmatieteen laitoksen tutkimusprofessoria Aleksi Nummelinia. fiia.fi/tapahtumat/f...
fiia.fi
FIIA Climate Briefing: Atlantin merivirrat ilmastonmuutoksen keikahduspisteenä - FIIA - Finnish Institute of International Affairs
FIIA Tapahtumat
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Tere Vadén @terevaden.net · 06/03/2026
Oisko liikaa vaadittu, että jos haluaa syödä eläimiä, niin maksaisi niistä sitten täyden hinnan? Ilman niiden kuuluisien veronmaksajien tukia.
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Ian Boudreau @ianboudreau.com · 06/03/2026
Made it to Friday but at what cost
A brown penguin chick of some kind. It looks very much like a man in a suit. It is bedraggled and miserable
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Greenpeace Suomi @greenpeace.fi · 16/02/2026
Mitä, jos Venäjän varjolaivastoon kuuluvalla öljytankkerilla tapahtuisi onnettomuus? Kuten teettämämme mallinnus osoittaa, jälki olisi tuhoisaa. Öljyä päätyisi koko Helsingin ja Espoon edustalle ja aiheuttaisi mittavaa tuhoa lukuisilla luonnonsuojelualueilla. www.greenpeace.org/finland/tied...
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Pleased to have contributed as an author to this analysis of impacts and policy responses to a potential AMOC tipping point from a Nordic perspective! pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
pub.norden.org
A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping
This report is the outcome of the Nordic Council of Minister’s sponsored workshop arranged in October 21-24, 2025 in Helsinki and Rovaniemi, Finland as part of Finland’s council presidency theme resil...
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Fundamentally flawed economic models mean #climatecrisis could crash global economy, experts warn - Shocks from extreme weather disasters and tipping points are entirely missed by the current models used by governments and financial institutions Story by me www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Flawed economic models mean climate crisis could crash global economy, experts warn
States and financial bodies using modelling that ignores shocks from extreme weather and climate tipping points
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
'Beneath the country’s political and economic crisis lies a more destabilising force that is still largely missing from international analysis: environmental breakdown. ... Protests increasingly erupt in areas where there is groundwater collapse, land subsidence and water rationing.'
theconversation.com
Iran’s biggest centres of protest are also experiencing extreme pollution and water shortages
Shortages of water and power as well as rising air pollution in Iran are at the centre of why citizens are telling their government they want change.
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Juha Länsman @juhalansman.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Uutisen pitäisi olla se, että tämä ei ole uutinen. Edelleen sama touhu, jossa jokainen pienikin metsätilkku on ihan pakko hakata, tai tulevat heinäsirkat, nälänhätä ja maailmanloppu. yle.fi/a/74-2020712...
yle.fi
Suomen valtio aikoo hakata satoja hehtaareja arvokasta metsää, sanovat järjestöt – lista kohteista julki
Orpon (kok.) hallituksen päättämät vanhojen metsien kriteerit ohjaavat nyt Metsähallituksen hakkuita.
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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
New from us: EU CO2 emissions fell only 0.8% in 2025, the second year in a row that the bloc has fallen short of its targets. Adverse weather played a big role but underlying issues are slow progress on transport and buildings electrification and wind power buildout.
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
"For much of the world, ‘normal’ is gone" – Humans are "withdrawing and polluting water beyond renewable inflows and safe depletion limits" and causing irreversible damage to wetlands and lakes that could have helped with restoration. news.un.org/en/story/202...
news.un.org
World enters era of ‘global water bankruptcy’
The world has moved beyond a water crisis and into a state of global water bankruptcy, says a new flagship report released on Tuesday by UN researchers.
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Dave Vetter @davidrvetter.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
🔥3.8 billion people will be exposed to extreme heat by 2050. Great to see my @smithschool.ox.ac.uk colleague and teacher Radhika Khosla interviewed by @jonathan-watts.bsky.social for the Guardian.
theguardian.com
Number of people living in extreme heat to double by 2050 if 2C rise occurs, study finds
Scientists expect 41% of the projected global population to face the extremes, with ‘no part of the world’ immune
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Jussi Ahokas @ahokasjaj.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Tekoäly voisi muodostaa hallituksen.
Tekoäly hoidon tarpeen arviointiin?
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Australia’s worst heatwave since black summer made five times more likely by #climatecrisis, @wwattribution.bsky.social analysis finds - Extreme heat ‘is getting worse and there’s ultimately a limit to what we can physically cope with’ scientist says www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
theguardian.com
Australia’s worst heatwave since black summer made five times more likely by global heating, analysis finds
Extreme heat ‘is getting worse and whether we like it or not … there’s ultimately a limit to what we can actually physically cope with,’ scientist says
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Forest loss is shown to exacerbate meteorological drought globally, with boreal regions most affected. Urgent conservation and restoration are needed. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Forest loss intensifies meteorological drought in more than half of Earth’s climate zones
Forest loss increases the risk of meteorological drought more in boreal zones than in the tropics.
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Prof Lisa Schipper 🌍🍉💪 @lisaschipper.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
For those thinking that climate change can take a back seat while this other geopolitical mess is addressed - think again. Climate change is in part why Greenland has become so attractive to Pumpkin and his lot. bbc.com/news/videos/...
bbc.com
'We just want to be left alone': Greenlanders on Trump's takeover threats
The BBC's Europe Editor Katya Adler visits the Artic island to ask what people think of the US president's plans.
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Juha Länsman @juhalansman.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Tällä bulkkitaloudella se varmasti saadaan Suomen talous nousuun. Metsähallitus vähät välittää mitä hakkaa, ostajaa ei voisi vähempää kiinnostaa mitä ostaa. Valtakunnassa kaikki hyvin. www.sttinfo.fi/tiedote/7170...
sttinfo.fi
Metsä Group myönsi: luonnonmetsän puut menivät sellukattilaan | Greenpeace
Metsähallitus hakkasi Ylimmäisensuon luonnonmetsän viime perjantaina. Metsä Group myönsi viimein, että yhtiö osti puuta luonnonmetsän hakkuista.
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
So much fun
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Thrilled to share I’ll get paid for two years to deepen my existential dread about climate collapse—thanks to the Nessling Foundation! Starting end of 2026 at @bios.fi, I’ll explore how an AMOC collapse could reshape Finland’s society, with a focus on food production.
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 06/11/2025
📝New FIIA Briefing Paper Environment-related risks can trigger sudden, cascading effects across sectors and borders. @ezhakala.bsky.social and @helmiraisanen.bsky.social explore environment-related risks as part of comprehensive security and discuss ways to prepare for them. fiia.fi/en/publicati...
"The environmental crisis should be integrated as comprehensively as possible into foresight practices and preparedness, rather than treated as a separate domain." A quote from Emma Hakala and Helmi Räisänen, from FIIA Briefing Paper 423: Environment-related risks in comprehensive security: A framework for foresight and preparedness.
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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 27/10/2025
Great, intense conference during the Nordic Tipping Week in Helsinki and Rovaniemi 🇫🇮 last week. Climate scientists, fisheries experts, social researchers, and policy makers came together to discuss what an #AMOC weakening or collapse could mean for the Nordic region and the rest of the world.
Sybren Drijfhout (KNMI) showing that current observed AMOC trends align with high emission models (that all have AMOC collapse in the upcoming 2 centuries).
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Hyvää alkanutta työviikkoa. Kaikki on loistavasti. "Two iconic corals that have flourished across Florida’s 560-kilometre-long reef for more than 10,000 years are now ‘functionally extinct’ following the record-breaking 2023 heatwave." www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
These iconic corals are nearly extinct due to heatwaves: can they be saved?
Florida’s primary reef-building corals have been declared ‘functionally extinct’ — prompting a shift in conservation strategies.
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Just attended Nordic Tipping Week to discuss the latest science on the AMOC tipping point and its societal impacts. Now I’m feeling some serious post-conference anguish. Being back in a world pretending everything’s normal is exhausting. The cognitive dissonance is heavy.
A photo of a lecture slides presented by Sybren Drijfhout
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳. @swinda.bsky.social esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
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David Wallace-Wells @dwallacewells.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
“‘We must stop expecting carbon offsetting to work at scale,’ said Stephen Lezak, a researcher at the University of Oxford’s Smith School. ‘We have assessed 25 years of evidence and almost everything up until this point has failed.’” www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Carbon offsets fail to cut global heating due to ‘intractable’ systemic problems, study says
Analysis of 25 years of evidence shows most schemes are poor quality and fail to lower emissions
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Nearly 40% of global transboundart river basins could face potential conflicts driven by water scarcity in 2041–2050, with hotspots in Africa, southern and central Asia, the Middle East, and North America www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change - Nature Communications
Transboundary river basins (TRBs) are at an increasing risk of water scarcity-induced conflicts. Nearly 40% of global TRBs could face such conflicts by 2050, but measures such as intra-basin cooperation could reduce this proportion to less than 10%.
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Dr. Crystal A. Kolden @pyrogeog.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires
Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially ...
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Geologic CO₂ storage capacity is limited (1,460 Gt). Without steep near-term emission cuts, we risk exhausting capacity before 2200. Even at max use, storage only lowers warming by 0.7 °C—making it a finite, intergenerational resource for climate strategy. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage - Nature
A risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins establishes a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 Gt of geological carbon storage, which requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use.
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Helmi Räisänen @helmiraisanen.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
New study finds that warmer oceans could cut populations of Prochlorococcus — the tiny phytoplankton that produce ~20% of Earth’s oxygen and form the base of many marine food webs — by up to 50% in tropical seas by 2100 if surface waters keep rising above ~28 °C. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Future ocean warming may cause large reductions in Prochlorococcus biomass and productivity - Nature Microbiology
Decade-long field measurements and modelling show that projected ocean temperatures could restrict cell division rates of an important marine cyanobacterium.
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