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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 22/05/2026

🚀 Now available: a precinct-by-precinct result maps, stats, and other data from the 2026 Primary Contest, for every single contest on May 19th! (For example, the link to Dem Lt. Gov Race: civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026...) More info 🧵👇 1/3

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 19/05/2026

As of 9:05am, there's some scattered wait times in DeKalb County, and no wait reported in Fulton County. Typically, voting traffic has a small peek at lunchtime, and then heavier turnout after work hours.

**Alt-text:**

A screenshot of a mobile or web application with a dark interface displaying a list of eight different locations, each marked with a bright green pin icon. The list shows the location name, address, and current wait time with a timestamp from the morning of May 19, 2026.

The locations and details from top to bottom are:

* **Austin Drive:** 4000 Covington Highway, Decatur 30032. Wait is 10 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:33 AM.
* **Gresham Road:** 3132 Clifton Church Road SE, Atlanta 30316. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:30 AM.
* **Briarcliff:** 3039 Briarcliff Road, Atlanta 30329. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:23 AM.
* **Montgomery Elem (BHAVN):** 3995 Ashford Dunwoody Road, Atlanta 30319. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:10 AM.
* **Northlake:** 3715 LaVista Road, Decatur 30033. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:14 AM.
* **Cedar Grove South:** 3430 Bouldercrest Road, Conley 30288. Wait is 0 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:12 AM.
* **Cedar Grove Elem:** 2330 River Road, Ellenwood 30294. Wait is 0 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:05 AM.
* **Metropolitan (ATL):** 542 Moreland Avenue SE, Atlanta 30316. Wait is 0 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:09 AM.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 15/05/2026

To add to all the posts reporting this...we're seeing massive EV turnout in the Atlanta Metro. This is the latest from Dekalb Co, GA. Remember...if you are in line at 7pm...stay in line! #gapol

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 15/05/2026

...have also trended younger (see image), with voters under 65 out-performing trends observed in '24. Yesterday, turnout for voters pull Dem ballots 18 to 44 was also double what was observed in '24. My guess is that the fallout from the VRA decision is turbo-charging turnout - esp. with...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 13/05/2026

Any deep dive Georgia Early Vote questions, theories, or thoughts? I'm glad to answer! 🗺️ Map below shows changes in Dem ballots pulled, by precinct, comparing this primary vs. Days 1-15 in '24.... Green = more Dem ballots now, than in '24 Red = less Dem ballots now, than in '24 #gapol

A map of Georgia showing the percentage-point difference in voter turnout between 2026 and 2024 for voting periods V1-V15, cumulative through May 13th.

The map is color-coded by precinct:

* **Dark Green:** Over 2 percentage points (pp) ahead of 2024 turnout.
* **Light Green:** 0.5 to 2 pp ahead.
* **White:** Approximately tied (within 0.5 pp).
* **Light Red:** 0.5 to 2 pp behind.
* **Dark Red:** Over 2 pp behind.

The majority of the state is shaded in light green, indicating a slight increase in turnout. Notable concentrations of dark green (significant increase) are visible in the Atlanta metropolitan area and near Savannah. Clusters of red (decreased turnout) are primarily located in the southwestern and east-central regions of the state. Surrounding states and major cities are labeled for geographic context.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 13/05/2026

In GA, political focus is typically on Metro ATL. Here's a shoutout to counties w/ the highest Dem primary turnout (Dem ballots / all reg. voters) so far in EV: - Taliaferro (pronounced 'Tolliver'): 11.7% - Rockdale: 8.8% - Muscogee (Columbus, GA): 7.4% - Dekalb (Atlanta + Metro ATL): 7.4% #gapol

An interactive digital dashboard featuring a choropleth map of Georgia, divided by county. The map displays "2026 turnout rate" for Democratic ballots, with a color scale where darker shades of blue indicate higher turnout.

**Key Dashboard Details:**

* **Selected Filters:** The "Democrat" ballot type and "County" view are active.
* **Map Mode:** The map is set to "Turnout," defined as accepted ballots divided by registered voters.
* **Turnout Legend:** * **Lightest blue/gray:** 0.00%–1.9%
* **Light blue:** 1.9%–3.3%
* **Medium blue:** 3.3%–5.2%
* **Darker blue:** 5.2%–7.4%
* **Darkest blue:** >7.4%

* **Visual Trends:** Higher turnout (darker blue) is concentrated in the metro Atlanta area, around Augusta, and in several counties in the southwest near Albany. Most other rural counties are shaded in the lighter blue ranges (0.00%–3.3%).

The map includes standard navigation tools like zoom buttons and is powered by Mapbox and OpenStreetMap.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 08/05/2026

EV Update: Democrats are also maintaining a massive turnout advantage in GA, with +9.1 so far. Why is this important? In addition to partisan primaries, we also have a Supreme Court and Appeals Court race - important seats with impacts on policy in GA. civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... #gapol

This graphic provides a detailed breakdown of early voting statistics in Georgia for the 2026 cycle, specifically comparing Democratic and Republican ballot counts against the same period in 2024. The data reflects a significant increase in early participation for both major parties, though the growth rates and total volumes differ.

Democratic Ballot Statistics
The Democratic party currently holds a lead in total early ballots cast, accounting for 53.8% of the 389,306 accepted ballots.

Total Ballots: 209,349 (representing 2.8% of all registered Democratic voters).

Voting Method: The vast majority were cast in-person (200,750), followed by mail-in (8,331) and electronic (268).

Year-over-Year Growth: This represents a massive 197% increase compared to the 106,315 ballots cast during the same period in 2024, an addition of 103,034 voters.

Republican Ballot Statistics
The Republican party accounts for 44.7% of the total accepted ballots.

Total Ballots: 174,159 (representing 2.4% of all registered Republican voters).

Voting Method: Similar to the Democrats, the bulk of these were in-person (168,043), with 6,080 mail-in and 36 electronic ballots.

Year-over-Year Growth: Republican turnout has also seen a sharp rise, up 133% from the 130,669 ballots cast in the equivalent 2024 period, adding 43,490 voters to their total.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 08/05/2026

It's been a fairly crummy day in political news 😞 And it's tough to find bright spots, but there are. (I promise!) Of the 180 House Districts, 118 are seeing net gains in Dem ballots pulled - esp. in uncontested Rep. Districts (see map). Same with 37 of 56 of State Senate districts, net Dem gains!

The provided map illustrates a shifting political landscape in Georgia as of May 2026, comparing current early voting data to the Day 11 benchmark from the 2024 election. The data measures the Democratic share of all ballots cast per district, highlighting whether the party is overperforming or underperforming its relative turnout from the previous presidential cycle. Broadly, the map is dominated by varying shades of blue, indicating that in most districts, Democratic-affiliated voters make up a larger percentage of the electorate now than they did at this point two years ago.

The most consistent gains for the Democratic share are concentrated in the Atlanta metropolitan area and its surrounding northern suburbs. This trend suggests a continuation of the suburban realignment that has defined Georgia politics over the last several years, with high-density areas maintaining or increasing their participation levels. Interestingly, significant "dark blue" clusters—representing a percentage-point increase of 16.2 or higher—are also visible in the southern and southeastern coastal regions of the state, suggesting a surge in relative turnout in more rural or coastal communities compared to the 2024 baseline.

In contrast, several regions in East-Central and Southwest Georgia appear in shades of red, signaling that the Democratic share of the electorate in those specific districts has contracted. These areas, particularly those bordering South Carolina and the regions surrounding Albany, are currently underperforming their 2024 participation levels. This creates a polarized map where urban and coastal gains are being offset by a relative decrease in Democratic engagement in the state’s interior rural corridors.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/05/2026

Note that higher share of Dem EV votes doesn't mean that a House District will flip blue (see map). There are still many ruby-red districts out-of-reach for Dems...but, increasing shares of votes for Dems makes statewide races competitive + adding more districts to the toss-up column. #gapol

$This map provides a visual breakdown of the Democratic share of total ballots in Georgia, specifically modeled or projected for **2026**. It uses a color-coded heat map to display political leanings across various districts. --- ## **Key Takeaways from the Map** ### **1. The Color Logic** The map is centered on a **50% threshold**: * **Blue Shades:** Represent a Democratic majority (over 50%). The darker the blue, the higher the Democratic share. * **Red Shades:** Represent a Democratic minority (under 50%). The darker the red, the lower the Democratic share (and likely the higher the Republican share). * **Scale:** The legend indicates the spectrum ranges from $\le 13\%$ to $\ge 87\%$. ### **2. Geographic Trends** * **The Urban Core (Atlanta):** As expected, the most concentrated area of dark blue is the **Atlanta metropolitan area**. This region shows a very high Democratic majority, with the darkest blues concentrated in the city center and radiating into its immediate suburbs. * **Secondary Urban Hubs:** You can see "islands" of blue or light blue around other major cities such as **Augusta**, **Columbus**, **Savannah** (southeast coast), and **Albany**. * **The Rural North:** Northern Georgia is dominated by deep red, indicating a strong Democratic minority and a high concentration of Republican-leaning voters. * **The "Black Belt":** A visible band of light blue and pale red stretches across the center-south of the state, historically corresponding to regions with higher African American populations and more competitive or Democratic-leaning voting patterns. --- ## **Data Context** The map includes a "Map Mode" selector at the top, showing that this specific view is for **DEM ÷ ALL** (Democratic ballots divided by all ballots).$

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/05/2026

...total turnout at end of EV is expected to nearly double compared to '24. This map shows Dem pickups by State House District, relative to '24 primary. Darker blue means more Dem votes as % of all EV votes. Lots of +10, +15, etc., in very red districts in N. GA and SE GA. #gapol #earlyvote

$This map illustrates the **change in the Democratic share of ballots** in Georgia for the **2026 election cycle** compared to the same point in the **2024 election**. Specifically, it tracks the percentage-point difference ($\Delta$) in the partisan makeup of the electorate. Here is a breakdown of what the data represents: ### **The Metric** The map uses a "$\Delta$ DEM share" mode. The calculation compares the proportion of ballots cast by Democrats so far in 2026 against the first seven days of voting in 2024: $$(Democratic / Total\ Ballots)_{2026} - (Democratic / Total\ Ballots)_{2024}$$ ### **The Color Legend** * **Blue:** Indicates that Democrats currently make up a **larger share** of the voters in that district than they did at this point in 2024. Darker blue represents a more significant increase (up to $+17.5$ percentage points). * **Red:** Indicates that Democrats make up a **smaller share** of the voters compared to 2024. Darker red represents a sharper decline (down to $-17.5$ percentage points). * **White/Light Colors:** Indicate areas where the partisan share is relatively stable or unchanged from the 2024 baseline. ### **Observations** * **Geographic Shifts:** Much of the map, particularly in **South Georgia** and the **Northwest**, shows deep blue shades, suggesting that Democratic-leaning voters in these areas are participating at a higher relative rate than in the previous cycle. * **Atlanta Metro:** The area around Atlanta shows a mix of light blue and light red, indicating that the partisan balance in the state's most populous region is remaining closer to the 2024 baseline compared to the more dramatic shifts in rural areas. In short, this is a tool for political analysts to see if one party is "over-performing" or "under-performing" their previous turnout patterns in real-time.$

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 02/05/2026

Some stats from GA Early Vote for Day 5: Total turnout is 2.7%, higher than Day 5 in '24 (1.8%) Dems still hold the advantage in ballots returned (53.6%) vs Reps (44.8%) Dem turnout top demo: Black 65+ female voters (for Repubs: White 65+ male voters) + Big declines with mail-in voting #gapol

The 2026 statewide Democrat ballot turnout shows a notable shift toward older and Black voters compared to the same period in 2024. The 65+ demographic currently commands the largest share of accepted ballots at 58%—a 4% increase from 2024—while participation among voters under 45 remains relatively low at a combined 11%. Racially, the share of ballots from Black voters has risen to 64% (up from 61%), while the share from White voters has dipped slightly to 25%. Gender dynamics remain consistent with previous cycles; female voters maintain a strong majority at 61%, though this represents a marginal 1% decrease from 2024, as the male share has ticked up to 39%. Overall, while older and Black demographics show the highest turnout rates, the younger and minority groups like Hispanic and Asian voters continue to represent a smaller, though slightly growing, portion of the early voting electorate.

$A data dashboard titled "Turnout by demographic" displaying statewide marginals for Republican ballots in 2026 compared to day 5 of 2024. The data is organized into three sections: Age, Race, and Gender, each featuring a donut chart and a detailed breakdown. * **Age:** The 65+ demographic represents the largest share at 68% (up from 59% in 2024), followed by ages 45–64 at 24% (down from 29%). Younger cohorts represent a small fraction: 30–44 (5%) and 18–29 (2%). * **Race:** The electorate is overwhelmingly White at 91% (virtually unchanged from 90% in 2024). Other categories include "Other" at 5%, Black at 2%, and Hispanic and Asian both at 1%. * **Gender:** Males represent 53% of accepted ballots (an increase from 48% in 2024), while Females represent 47% (a decrease from 51% in 2024). The dashboard includes navigation filters at the top, showing that "Republican" ballots are currently selected for comparison against "day 5 of 2024." Under each category, solid bars represent the 2026 share, while faint background bars represent the 2024 comparison share.$

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 02/05/2026

More GA Early Voting Analysis on Day 5: Looking at the State House races, I'm seeing considerable pickups in the share of Dem voters in those races (Img 2). Img 1: There are still plenty of ruby-red House Districts, but now a little less so. civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... #gapol

$This map provides a detailed breakdown of the **Democratic share of total ballots** for the **2026 Georgia State House districts**. The data is visualized using a "diverging" color scale centered at 50%, illustrating the partisan lean across different regions of the state. ### **Core Data Breakdown** * **Map Mode:** `DEM ÷ ALL` (Democratic ballots divided by the total number of ballots). * **Blue Districts:** Indicate a Democratic majority (over 50% share). * **Red Districts:** Indicate a Democratic minority (under 50% share). * **Scale:** The intensity of the color ranges from $\le 13\%$ (deep red) to $\ge 87\%$ (deep blue). --- ### **Regional Geographic Trends** #### **1. The Atlanta Core (Deep Blue)** The most prominent feature is the **Metro Atlanta area**, which serves as the state’s Democratic stronghold. The districts in the immediate city center and the inner-ring suburbs show the darkest shades of blue, indicating a Democratic share approaching or exceeding 87%. This concentration highlights the urban-rural divide that often defines Georgia's political landscape. #### **2. Secondary Urban Hubs** Beyond Atlanta, Democratic majorities are clustered around other major population centers: * **Augusta:** Shows a strong blue cluster on the eastern border. * **Savannah:** Displays a blue concentration on the coast. * **Columbus & Albany:** These western and southwestern cities show pockets of blue, though they appear slightly lighter than the Atlanta core, suggesting a more competitive but still Democratic-leaning environment. #### **3. The "Red North" and Rural Divide** The northern part of the state (outside of the Atlanta metro area) is characterized by deep red, representing some of the lowest Democratic shares in the state. Similarly, much of the rural southern and southeastern portions of Georgia remain firmly in the red, with the exception of the aforementioned urban pockets and parts of the "Black Belt"—a region across the center of the state that hi…$ $This map provides a comparative look at early voting data in Georgia, specifically focusing on the **Democratic share of ballots cast** for the State House districts as of early May 2026, compared to the same point (Day 5) in the 2024 election cycle. ### **Key Metrics & Legend** The map uses a "Delta ($\Delta$) DEM share" metric. This measures the percentage-point shift in the Democratic portion of the electorate rather than raw turnout. * **The Formula:** $$\Delta \text{DEM share} = \left( \frac{\text{Democratic Ballots}}{\text{Total Ballots}} \right)_{2026} - \left( \frac{\text{Democratic Ballots}}{\text{Total Ballots}} \right)_{\text{Day 5, 2024}}$$ * **Blue Districts:** The Democratic share of the electorate is **higher** than it was at this point in 2024. Darker blue indicates a more significant increase (up to $+17.3$ pp). * **Red Districts:** The Democratic share of the electorate is **lower** than it was at this point in 2024. Darker red indicates a more significant decrease (down to $-17.3$ pp). ### **Regional Trends** * **Atlanta Metro:** Many districts surrounding the Atlanta core show shades of blue, suggesting that the Democratic share of early voters in the suburbs is holding steady or growing compared to the 2024 baseline. * **Southern Georgia:** There is a notable cluster of deep blue districts in the southern part of the state, indicating a significant increase in the Democratic share of the early vote in those specific State House districts. * **Eastern Georgia:** Several districts near the South Carolina border (around the Augusta area) show red tints, indicating that the Democratic share of the electorate there is currently lagging behind 2024 levels.$

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 29/04/2026

Maps of 🔵 Dem and 🔴 Rep turnout as of today, by county (from civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026...) N.B.: scales between the choropleth maps are slightly different. Voting patterns match typical geographic-political concentrations within the State. #gapol #earlyvote #georgia

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 10/03/2026

Polls are closed! We have some early returns from Floyd and Polk Counties - so far, @shawnforcongress.bsky.social (D) has the majority of votes! We're very early on, so these results will likely rapidly shift as the evening proceeds. #GA-14

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 10/03/2026

It's 🗳️ Election Day in #GA-14! The @nytimes.com is quasi-projecting @shawnforcongress.bsky.social making the runoffs. Meanwhile, 6 Republican candidates have dropped out of the special election (assets.cobbcounty.gov/files/2026-0...) www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/u...

Shawn Harris, an Army veteran and a moderate candidate, is expected to be the top-performing Democrat, most likely setting up a runoff between Mr. Harris and one of the Republican candidates.
The winner of the runoff, scheduled for April 7, will immediately begin serving to complete Ms. Greene's unfinished term.
Meanwhile, a separate race is underway — with many of the same candidates — to win the November election to serve a full two-year term in the same seat. The primaries for that race are scheduled for May 19.
Kellen Browning is a Times political reporter based in San Francisco.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 07/03/2026

The plant is located in HD 32, which was uncontested since 2020, but now has 🔵 rebeccaforgeorgiastatehouse.com running. And in SD 50, where 🔵 davecooperga.com has declared their candidacy. Both very red districts, but a flailing local economy can sometimes reset political expectations.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 03/03/2026

While this proposal is likely DOA, it shows the bad faith arguments of "election integrity" advocates. Their end goal is always to suppress votes and voting. They start with something semi-reasonable, then it's "no more early voting" and then, no voting at all. www.ajc.com/politics/202...

A sweeping proposal passed by the Senate Ethics Committee on Monday would require switching to preprinted, hand-marked paper ballots scanned by machines, end county- and municipality-wide in-person early voting, and overhaul how the state conducts election audits.
It's unclear how much the dramatic changes would cost to implement.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 22/02/2026

GA-14 Special Election Early Voting (EV) recorded 2,173 votes yesterday, Sat., Feb 21. Overall, EV are running at 80% of the 2024 General Election's EV, an unusually high turnout in an off-cycle contest. Total EV vote count is 22.7k as of yesterday with a projected total EV count of 55.4k. 🧵👇

A bar and line graph titled "GA-14 Special Election: Daily Early Vote Comparison." The chart compares the daily ballots accepted for the 2026 Special Election against the 2024 General Election, aligned by "Days Until Election Day."

Visual Elements
X-axis: Counts down from 22 days to 4 days until Election Day, labeled with the day of the week.

Y-axis: Represents "Daily Ballots Accepted," ranging from 0 to 6,000.

Data Series:

2024 General (Dotted Line with markers): Shows a generally higher turnout, peaking at 5,632 ballots on Day 18 (Friday) and dipping significantly on Sundays.

2026 Special (Actual - Solid Blue Bars): Covers Day 22 (Mon) through Day 16 (Sun). Day 18 shows the highest actual volume so far at 4,720 ballots.

2026 Special (Projected - Striped Blue Bars): Projects turnout from Day 15 (Mon) down to Day 4 (Fri).

Key Insight: The 2026 actual and projected turnout consistently tracks below the 2024 general election levels. The projected 2026 Early Vote (EV) total is listed in the subtitle as approximately 55,386.

A stacked bar chart titled "GA-14 Special Election: Daily Early Voting" displaying voting data from Monday, Feb 16 to Saturday, Feb 21, 2026. The subtitle notes that 22,706 total ballots were accepted through Saturday.Data BreakdownThe chart categorizes ballots into three types: Early In-Person (blue), Absentee by Mail (orange), and Electronic Ballot (green). Early In-Person voting makes up the vast majority of the totals.DateTotal BallotsPrimary Voting MethodMon 2/163,568Mostly Early In-PersonTue 2/174,228Mostly Early In-PersonWed 2/184,016Mostly Early In-PersonThu 2/194,001Mostly Early In-PersonFri 2/204,720Peak day; mostly Early In-PersonSat 2/212,173Significant drop compared to weekdaysKey ObservationsEarly In-Person dominance: Across all days, blue bars (in-person) represent nearly 95%+ of the daily volume.Trend: Daily turnout remained steady between 3,500 and 4,300 for most of the week, peaking on Friday before dropping by more than half on Saturday.Metadata: The chart is dated Feb 22, 2026, citing the GA Secretary of State as the source, and is credited to Civic Forge Solutions LLC.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

and...while Mayor Dickens won with an overwhelming 85% of the vote, weaker east side support. Despite the loss, Rohit and political allies (WFP, for example) had a strong GOTV. Next time, they may find a lot more than the 2k votes they were under in '25. 3/

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

Atlanta's political divide grows sharper. The densely populated central-east precincts in D1,D2,D5, and D6's support of Rohit contrasts against the western & northern precincts. Almost everybody in ATL is a Dem, but not everyone is a progressive. ℹ️ ga2025.civicfs.app/atlanta?cont... 2/

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

Oof. This is a tough one to report. With all precincts reporting in #Marietta, Tumlin has won over Foster by 258 votes. 😢 @samformarietta.bsky.social ran a damn good campaign, has an incredible future ahead of him, and I know we'll see him in elected office in the not-so-distant future.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

Marietta 4C comprises part of Barnett Pkwy, Mt. Paran Christian School, and a few other random pieces: (Ignore the lower right corner)

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

#Marietta update: We have one precinct remaining for EDay votes: 4C, where Tumlin had a 174 vote advantage. Currently, Foster has only a 48 vote lead. It's going to be tough for Foster to overcome this precinct's election day votes, if they arrive at the same proportion as early vote

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

50k more votes to go, and Overstreet and Rohit are tied, after Overstreet had the earlier advantage.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

I think he is still very competitive in this race, and the latest results show he now has a narrow lead!

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

These results are literally astonishing. Without DeKalb reporting, we have Dems leading 59.5% to Reps 40.5%. I think we're seeing margins that were beyond what anyone could have expected. In Cobb early vote, Harris won @ 56.4%, while Dem PSC is @ 75.5%, +19 pp. ‼️ Just incredible.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

And by Decision Desk HQ. That's it! 💯

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

We have some more data for PSC District 2: With Dem 🔵 powerhouse counties of Dekalb and Fulton not yet reporting, we have Dems Johnson & Hubbard leading by ~55.5%. Cobb advanced reporting has concluded. Analysis shortly...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

And we have confirmation from Cobb that all Advanced Voting ballots have been counted, so the results of the #Marietta mayor's race will come down to Election Day results. #GaPol #Decision2025

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

Looking at our vote distribution by county, we're seeing some red counties, such as Tift, Baldwin, and Wilkes that voted Trump in '24 now are recording EV results with Dems leading...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

And we have our first results in for the PSC race with Dems leading 62.7% to 37.33%, with nearly equal vote totals between the two Democratic candidates.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/11/2025

According to the AJC, total EDay turnout was ~800k as of 6pm. This number should increase a bit for the 7pm final #, and is larger than the 640k who voted during Early Vote This would put us statewide at a minimum of 20% total turnout ($) www.ajc.com/news/2025/11...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/11/2025

At 4pm, For Fulton Co, we have some scattered (but low) weight times at a few precincts in the county - the highest currently at the Cathedral of St. Philip in Buckhead, and the Helene Mills Senior Center in O4W.

Precinct Name,Wait Time (min)
Cathedral of Saint Philip,10
Helene Mills Senior Center,6
Peachtree Hills Recreation Center,5
Sarah Rawson Smith School,5
Bolton Academy,3
Jackson Memorial Baptist Church,3
Northside Branch Library,3
Christ Church Presbyterian,2
Morningside Presbyterian Church,2
Ormewood Park Presbyterian Church,2
Sara Smith Intermediate School,2
Thomasville Recreation Center,2
West Manor Park - AF Recreation Center,2
William Walker Recreation Center,2
C.A. Scott Recreation Bldg,1
Lutheran Church of the Redeemer,1
Sutton Middle Six Grade Campus,1
Adams Park Library,0

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/11/2025

[More] Noon Election Day voting updates! 🕛 In #Fulton County, we can obliquely review turnout by wait times (see table). S.R.S. School in N. Buckhead has 10 min waits, followed by Morningside P.C. (Va-Hi/Mside) and Jackson Church (Collier Heights) at 6 min and 5 min, respectively. #Georgia #GaPol

precinct_name,wait_time,total_count
Sarah Rawson Smith School,10,
Morningside Presbyterian Church,6,
Jackson Memorial Baptist Church,5,
Helene Mills Senior Center,3,
Ormewood Park Presbyterian Church,3,
St. Peter Missionary Baptist Church,2,
William Walker Recreation Center,2,
Bolton Academy,1,
Lutheran Church of the Redeemer,1,
North Avenue Presbyterian,1,
Piedmont Park Magnolia Hall,1,
Sara Smith Intermediate School,1,
Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy,1,

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/11/2025

Noon Election Day voting update! 🕛 As of noon, #Dekalb precincts in Atlanta report 2,349 votes cast. Across all of Dekalb, 22,067 total votes are recorded. Combined with the 57,796 ballots already cast, we have a Dekalb county-wide turnout of 16.4% (as of 12pm, 11/4) #GaPol #Decision2025 #Georgia

county,precinct_name,total_count
DeKalb,Boulevard (ATL),334
DeKalb,Burgess Elem (ATL),341
DeKalb,Candler Park (ATL),441
DeKalb,Coan Recreation Center (ATL),287
DeKalb,Emory Road,30
DeKalb,Lin - Mary Lin Elem (ATL),705
DeKalb,Metropolitan (ATL),211

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 03/11/2025

This is where things get interesting. GA has open primaries, from which we can make assumptions about voters' likely party affiliation. With this data, for 2025 early voters w/ partisan data, Dems 🔵 have the advantage (48.9%). How about voters only w/ non-partisan or no primary ballot (19.9%)? 4/

📊 2025 Georgia Early Vote Party Affiliation Breakdown
This image is an "exploded" 3D pie chart illustrating the party affiliation breakdown of early voters in Georgia for 2025.

The chart shows the following categories and their respective percentages of the total early vote:

Democrat: 48.9% (light blue)

Republican: 31.2% (light red)

No Record: 18.1% (light gray)

Unknown: 1.8% (dark gray)

Key Takeaways
Democratic Lead: Voters identified as Democrats make up the largest portion of early voters at 48.9%.

Republican Share: Voters identified as Republicans constitute 31.2% of the total.

Unaffiliated Voters: A significant portion, 18.1%, have "No Record" of party affiliation, with an additional 1.8% being "Unknown."

At the bottom, the chart states the Total Early Votes: 636,744.

The source is cited as Source: GA SoS, Civic Forge Solutions.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 03/11/2025

With these data and the '24 election results, a rough model can be built that weights current '25 turnout by county against the shares of votes received by 🔵 Harris and 🔴 Trump (see 🖼️). Unhelpfully, the results are 50/50. But, what if we model based on voters' partisan affiliations? 3/

A digital readout with white text on a black background, titled 'STATEWIDE REWEIGHTED RESULTS'. It lists the following data:

Total Early Votes (Accepted): 575,088

Reweighted Results:

Harris (Dem): 287,617 (50.01%)

Trump (Rep): 287,471 (49.99%)

Margin: 146 votes

Leader: Harris +0.03%

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 03/11/2025

Contested muni contests are driving turnout, not the PSC, which may result in certain counties having an outsized impact on the results of that race. In this case, Fulton and Dekalb drive Dem 🔵 turnout, and suburban Fayette Co & rural counties drive of Rep 🔴 turnout. (see map). 2/

Here is a detailed description of the image you uploaded.

🗺️ Georgia Early Vote Turnout Map (2025)
This image is a choropleth map of Georgia titled "Georgia Early Vote Turnout by County (2025)." It visualizes data in two primary ways:

Overall County Shading: The entire map of Georgia's counties is shaded on a color scale from light yellow to dark red/maroon. According to the color bar at the bottom, this shading represents the "Early Vote Turnout (%)" for all counties, ranging from approximately 5% (light yellow) to over 22.5% (dark maroon).

Highlighted County Labels: Several counties are highlighted with specific data labels. These labels provide two pieces of information:

Text: The county name and its exact early vote turnout percentage.

Background Color: The background color of the label (not the county shading) indicates the 2024 Presidential result for that county.

📊 Key & Legends
Early Vote Turnout (%) (Color Bar):

Low Turnout: Light Yellow (approx. 5.0%)

High Turnout: Dark Red/Maroon (approx. 22.5%)

2024 Presidential Result (Label Background Color):

Dark Blue: Dem +10%

Light Blue: Dem 0-10%

Light Red: Rep 0-10%

Dark Red: Rep >10%

Highlights from Labeled Counties
Here are the specific counties labeled on the map, along with their turnout and political lean (based on the label's background color):

Clinch: 23.4% (Strong Rep)

Polk: 17.3% (Strong Rep)

Stewart: 16.9% (Strong Dem)

Fayette: 15.4% (Lean Rep)

Upson: 14.3% (Strong Rep)

Fulton: 14.2% (Not specified, but label is dark red, indicating Strong Rep)

Decatur: 13.6% (Strong Rep)

Wilkes: 13.4% (Strong Rep)

Butts: 13.1% (Strong Rep)

Union: 13.1% (Strong Rep)

Rabun: 12.3% (Strong Rep)

Randolph: 12.2% (Lean Dem)

Crisp: 12.2% (Strong Rep)

McIntosh: 11.8% (Strong Rep)

Oglethorpe: 11.7% (Strong Rep)

Oconee: 11.7% (Strong Rep)

Early: 11.4% (Strong Rep)

Dekalb: 11.3% (Lean Dem)

Baldwin: 11.2% (Lean Rep)

Sumter: 11.0% (Lean Dem)

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 01/11/2025

Forgot a chart on this post! The attached pie chart shows the early vote participation of 2021 and 2025 voters, in total.

The two pie charts compare the early voter turnout and overlap between the 2021 and 2025 elections.

📈 Key Insights from the Data
Overall Turnout Growth: Early voter participation saw a significant increase, growing from 3,519 total voters in 2021 to 5,767 total voters in 2025.

Analysis of 2021 Voters (Left Chart):

This chart breaks down the 3,519 people who voted early in 2021.

54.2% (1,908 people) were repeat early voters, meaning they "Also voted 2025."

45.8% (1,610 people) "Did not vote 2025" (at least, not during the early voting period).

Analysis of 2025 Voters (Right Chart):

This chart breaks down the 5,767 people who voted early in 2025.

66.9% (3,859 people) were new early voters, meaning they "Did not vote 2021."

33.1% (1,907 people) were returning early voters, meaning they "Also voted 2021."

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 01/11/2025

There is also some differentiation between precincts re: these early voter participation stats: MR6A and MR7A had the highest number of new early voters & MR4A and MR4C had the fewest. 4/

This bar chart provides a more detailed, precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the voter overlap data from the first image.

It compares two different metrics for each precinct (e.g., MR1A, MR2A, etc.):

Blue Bars (2021 voters who also voted 2025): This shows the retention rate of 2021 early voters. For example, in precinct MR1A, 62.9% of the people who voted early in 2021 returned to vote early in 2025.

Orange Bars (2025 voters who also voted 2021): This shows the composition of the 2025 early voters. For example, in precinct MR1A, only 22.2% of the 2025 early voter pool were returning voters from 2021. This means the other 77.8% were new early voters.

📊 Key Observations by Precinct
High Retention of 2021 Voters (Blue):

MR1A (62.9%)

MR2A (61.9%)

MR7A (57.8%)

MR5A (57.3%)

High Influx of New Voters in 2025 (Indicated by low orange bars):

MR6A: Only 10.2% of its 2025 early voters were from 2021 (meaning 89.8% were new).

MR7A: Only 16.2% were from 2021 (meaning 83.8% were new).

MR1A & MR5B: Both had only 22.2% returning voters (meaning 77.8% were new).

Precincts Dominated by Returning Voters in 2025 (High orange bars):

MR4A: 52.7% of its 2025 early voters were repeats from 2021.

MR4C: 47.3% of its 2025 early voters were repeats.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 01/11/2025

D11, the current District held by Overstreet, on net had a slight decrease in total vote share. These trends reinforce the earlier trends observed during EV: northern districts stayed home, the denser eastern districts turned out, and the rest (including D11) were mostly the same. 3/

This image provides a detailed table summarizing the changes in early vote (EV) share by district between 2021 and 2025.

The table includes the following columns:

District: Numbered 1 through 12.

2021 EV Share (%): The percentage of early votes from that district in 2021.

2025 EV Share (%): The percentage of early votes from that district in 2025.

Absolute Change (pp): The simple difference in percentage points (pp) between 2025 and 2021. This is color-coded from dark green (large increase) to dark red (large decrease).

Relative Change (%): The percentage change relative to the 2021 share.

Key Observations from the Table:
Largest Absolute Gain: District 1 had the largest absolute increase, gaining +3.25 percentage points (from 4.99% to 8.24%). District 2 also saw a significant gain of +3.05 pp.

Largest Relative Gain: District 1 also had the largest relative increase, growing its share by +65.0%.

Largest Absolute Loss: District 8 experienced the most significant drop, losing -7.79 percentage points (from 14.92% down to 7.13%).

Largest Relative Loss: District 8 also had the largest relative decrease, with its share falling by -52.2%.

Smallest Change: District 9 was the most stable, with a minimal increase of just +0.04 percentage points, or a +0.5% relative change.

Overall Trend: The data shows a clear shift in the distribution of early votes. 8 out of the 12 districts (Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, and 12) increased their share of the total early vote, while 4 districts (Districts 7, 8, 10, and 11) saw their share decrease.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 01/11/2025

Let's break the total EV down by district. This chart's bars shows the share of each district's early votes as a % of the total EV votes in '25. The dots show the vote share in '21. D8 (Buckhead)'s share decreased, from 15% to 7% (-7.79pp), while D2, D5, and D1 together increased by +8.67pp 2/

This horizontal bar chart, titled "Early Vote Share by District: 2025 vs 2021," compares the percentage of early votes (EV) from 12 different districts for the years 2025 and 2021.

2025 EV Share is represented by blue bars, with the exact percentage labeled on each.

2021 EV Share is represented by a dot.

A green dot signifies that the district's vote share increased from 2021 to 2025.

A red dot signifies that the district's vote share decreased from 2021 to 2025.

The chart also notes that total early votes increased from 39,701 in 2021 to 46,299 in 2025.

Key Takeaways by District:
Districts with Increased Share (2025 > 2021):

D1: 8.2% (2025) vs. ~5.5% (2021)

D2: 11.5% (2025) vs. ~8.5% (2021)

D3: 3.6% (2025) vs. ~3.0% (2021)

D4: 4.8% (2025) vs. ~4.5% (2021)

D5: 11.3% (2025) vs. ~8.8% (2021)

D6: 10.5% (2025) vs. ~9.5% (2021)

D9: 8.8% (2025) vs. ~8.5% (2021)

D12: 6.5% (2025) vs. ~5.8% (2021)

Districts with Decreased Share (2025 < 2021):

D7: 8.8% (2025) vs. ~11.5% (2021)

D8: 7.1% (2025) vs. ~15.2% (2021)

D10: 8.5% (2025) vs. ~10.5% (2021)

D11: 10.5% (2025) vs. ~11.5% (2021)

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 01/11/2025

🚨 City of #Marietta 2025 Early Voting readout: Final EV turnout estimated at 5,767 votes, higher than 2021's 3,442, 67.5% increase in EV turnout ‼️ With 47,268 registered voters, this equates to a 12.2% turnout, which is again exceptional for the EV period in an off-year election. 🧵 1/ #GaPol

This is a line chart titled "City of Marietta Early Voting: 2021 vs 2025 Comparison." It plots the cumulative citywide vote totals against the number of days remaining until the election.

X-Axis: "Days Until Election," running from 22 down to 4. The data is noted as being "As of 10/31/25."

Y-Axis: "Cumulative Votes (Citywide)."

The chart displays two lines:

Blue Line ("2021 Early Vote"): This line shows a gradual increase in cumulative votes during the 2021 early voting period, ending at a "2021 Final Total: 3,519 votes."

Orange Line ("2025 Observed"): This line is consistently and significantly higher than the 2021 line, showing a steeper increase in cumulative votes. It ends at a point labeled "2025 Total (as of Day 4): 5,767 votes."

The key takeaway from the chart is that early voting turnout in 2025 is substantially higher than in 2021. As of 4 days before the election, the 2025 cumulative total has already surpassed the final 2021 total by more than 2,000 votes. The source is cited as "GA SoS, Civic Forge Solutions."

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 01/11/2025

City of #Atlanta Early Voting total turnout is estimated at 46.3k; yesterday's turnout was 10.5k, compared to 2021's 7.65k 😮. Projected total turnout is expected to be 95k to 110k with Election Day votes. Let's dive into the numbers and maps 📊 ℹ️ earlyvoteatl.civicfs.app 🧵👇 1/ #GAPol

Chart Summary
This chart compares the daily number of recorded early votes for the November 2025 election (represented by the blue line) against the daily counts from the 2021 election (represented by the orange bars). The x-axis shows the number of days remaining until Election Day, counting down from 21 to 4.

Key Observations
Overall Trend: Both years show a similar pattern: relatively low, steady turnout further out from the election, followed by a significant surge in voting as Election Day gets closer (starting around 9-10 days out).

Higher 2025 Turnout: The most notable takeaway is that the 2025 early voting turnout is consistently higher than 2021's, and this gap widens significantly in the final days shown.

Specific Data Point: At the "4 Days Until Election Day" mark, the 2025 election recorded over 10,000 votes (approximately 10,500), while the 2021 election saw approximately 7,700 votes on the same corresponding day.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/10/2025

#Marietta Early Voting update 📣 Yesterday's (10/31) est. EV total within the City of Marietta was 4,936, compared to 2,909 on the penultimate day of early voting in 2021, a 70% increase. Projected EV total is 5,828, 67% of the total votes for mayor in 2021 (8,720)‼️ @samformarietta.bsky.social

A line chart titled "City of Marietta Early Voting: 2021 Actual vs 2025 Observed & Projected," displaying cumulative citywide totals. The x-axis plots "Days Until Election" (counting down from 22 to 4), and the y-axis plots "Cumulative Votes (Citywide)" (from 0 to over 6000).

The chart compares two main datasets:

2021 Early Vote (Blue Line): This line shows a steady cumulative increase, with key points labeled "2021 Actual @ Day 5: 2,909" and a final total of "2021 Actual @ Day 4: 3,442."

2025 (Orange/Yellow Lines): This series starts as a solid orange "2025 Observed" line, which is significantly steeper and higher than the 2021 line. It reaches a labeled point "2025 Actual @ Day 5: 4,936." From this point, the line splits into three projection lines (Conservative, Hybrid, Optimistic) extending to Day 4. The "Hybrid" projection endpoint is highlighted as "2025 Projection @ Day 4: 5,828."

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/10/2025

Within D5, our highest EV turnout district, hats off to Kirkwood and East Atlanta, with the highest D5 turnout, and total turnout of 719 and 478, respectively. 4/

The table (Image 2) is a detailed, partial breakdown of the data shown in the chart (Image 1). The "Grand total" in the table is a subset of the total shown on the bar chart.

Here is a direct comparison using Day 5 as an example:

Bar Chart (Total): On "5 Days Until Election Day," the total number of recorded votes for 2025 was approximately 5,700.

Table (Partial): On that same day, the total votes from the specific neighborhoods shown (Kirkwood, East Atlanta, etc.) was 719.

This means that the 719 votes detailed in the table are just one part of the 5,700 total votes cast that day. The table provides a granular, neighborhood-level look at where some of the voting activity is coming from, while the chart shows the complete, election-wide trend.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/10/2025

So, which Districts turned out yesterday? You guessed it, D5 (721), D2 (660), and D6 (565). Looking at total EV by districts (which have roughly the same population), we see Buckhead's D8 with the lowest EV totals, then D1 and D2. Overstreet's D11 has caught up a bit to an early EV lag. 3/

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/10/2025

With yesterdays' turnout, the projected City of #Atlanta total EV turnout is 44,614, 15% higher than 2021's EV turnout. My expectation for overall turnout (EV + EDay) is >100k votes. Based on historic patterns, today's turnout should be the highest of the cycle. 2/

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/10/2025

It's 4️⃣ days from Election Day for #Atlanta muni & PSC race - and today's the last day for Early Voting EV turnout for Thurs, 10/31 was 5,683, 29% higher than 2021's est. 4,406, which is quite exceptional 🚀 Let's dive into the details and projections... ℹ️ earlyvoteatl.civicfs.app 🧵👇 1/ #GAPol

This is a combination bar and line chart titled "Nov 2025 Election vs Total 2021 Early Voting Counts."

Y-axis: Labeled "# of Recorded Votes," with a scale from 0 to 8,000 (8K).

X-axis: Labeled "Days Until Election Day," counting down from 21 to 0.

Legend:

The blue line represents the 2021 voting counts.

The orange bars represent the 2025 voting counts.

Key Observations from the Chart:
Overall Trend: For both years, the number of daily early votes generally increases as Election Day gets closer (moving from left to right on the chart).

Peak Voting: Both years show a significant spike in voting 4 days before Election Day.

2021 vs. 2025 Comparison:

Early/Mid Period (21 to 5 days out): The 2025 daily vote counts (orange bars) are consistently higher than the 2021 counts (blue line).

Peak (Day 4): This trend reverses dramatically at the peak. In 2021, there was a massive surge to nearly 8,000 votes. In 2025, the peak was lower, at approximately 5,700 votes.

Final Days (3 to 0 days out): Voting drops off sharply to near zero for both years, indicating the early voting period has likely ended.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 30/10/2025

Looking at 2025 EV vote projections for #Atlanta, model now estimates ~43,187, ~12% higher than 2021's EV count So, what happened to the early bump? My guess is rainy and cold weather - perhaps that has less of an effect in Marietta? Good news is that for last two days of EV, weather is 💯 #GaPol

This chart tracks the "Cumulative Citywide Totals" for early voting in Atlanta, comparing the 2021 election with the observed and projected data for the 2025 election.

Key Observations
2025 Turnout is Pacing Ahead: The 2025 "Observed" cumulative vote total (solid orange line) is consistently higher than the 2021 "Early Vote" total (solid blue line) at every point in the timeline.

Comparison at Day 6:

2025 Actual @ Day 6: 30,059 votes

2021 Actual @ Day 6: 26,553 votes

Difference: As of 6 days before Election Day, 2025 is 3,506 votes ahead of where 2021 was at the same point.

Final Totals and Projections:

2021 Final Total (Actual @ Day 4): 38,601 votes

2025 Projected Total (Hybrid @ Day 4): 43,187 votes

Key Insight: Unlike the Marietta chart, Atlanta's 2025 current total (30,059) has not yet surpassed the final 2021 total (38,601). However, the "Hybrid" projection estimates that 2025 will finish with approximately 4,586 more early votes than in 2021.

Voting Rate: The gap between the 2025 and 2021 lines appears to widen, particularly after Day 10. This indicates that the rate of early voting in the final 10 days is stronger in 2025 than it was in 2021.

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