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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/07/2026

That's exactly the scenario. And if KLB does win, I'd expect the General Assembly to pull a North Carolina and strip the Governor's office of its powers. But, GA is not NC, and the GOP backed down in the special session. Anything is possible.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/07/2026

It's a full throttle effort to get Dems elected. The primary driver here isn't necessarily the campaigns, it's if enough folks in Georgia have said they've had enough of the current regime. Polls keep showing Dems' advantage. Ff that trend continues, chances of a Dem majority in the House increase.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/07/2026

@blackgaynerd.com Yes, unfortunately, the gerrymander is the primary effect here. Republicans in the General Assembly (pre-Callais) worked assiduously to give themselves the advantage. The winds are in the sails of Dems, which makes a majority a >0% possibility. But, the deck is stacked against us.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 31/07/2026

🚀 New model: In Georgia, 🔵 Dems are modeled to have an 18% probability of winning a majority in the State House, and a 3% probability in the State Senate. I know it's not great, but these probabilities may still shift with add'l polling data... Read more: civicforge.solutions/articles/ga-...

civicforge.solutions

Can Democrats Win the Georgia General Assembly?

Our estimate of who controls each chamber of the Georgia General Assembly after November 2026: an 18% chance of a Democratic House majority, 3% in the Senate, and a real chance of a tie in both. Plus ...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 30/07/2026

And thank you for your note! I've been working on a lot in the background and am excited to share in the coming days and weeks.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 30/07/2026

Total seats for Dems in the House is estimated at 85, close but not at majority. I don't think the Senate is in play. If add'l polling closer to Nov shows a harder shift to Dems, then that # may increase. I'm also working on a separate model specifically to answer your question re: swing counts.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 30/07/2026

Long time, no post! 👋 After a summer break, I'm back and jumping back into our midterm elections GA Legislative Ratings are now released: civicforge.solutions/articles/ga-... rating GA House & Senate districts for 🔵 Safe/Likely/Lean/tossup "In-play" districts will be profiled here, next! #gapol

civicforge.solutions

Georgia's 2026 Legislative Ratings

Ratings for all 236 seats in the Georgia General Assembly for the November 2026 general election. A third of the map was settled at the March qualifying deadline, only three seats are genuine coin fli...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 22/05/2026

Over the next few days, I'll be publishing some deep dive analyses on key races, since there were some unexpected results in the Democratic primary that need some exploration. If you're interested in the underlying data, or how to use these data for your campaign, let's get in touch! 3/3

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 22/05/2026

Every single precinct in the 2026 primary was reconciled against the results, allowing a full micro-geographic view of both which voters voted for which candidates, and where voters cast their ballots. Behind the maps and data are a comprehensive dataset for analyzing the results on May 19th. 2/3

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 22/05/2026

🚀 Now available: a precinct-by-precinct result maps, stats, and other data from the 2026 Primary Contest, for every single contest on May 19th! (For example, the link to Dem Lt. Gov Race: civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026...) More info 🧵👇 1/3

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 20/05/2026

So, I overextended myself last night with client work. Apologies for lack of live commentary! There's no lack of commentary over last night's results. I'm not sure any hot takes from me would be helpful 🙃 But, my public site is being updated w/more EDay analysis tools for future informed opinions!

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 20/05/2026

Hi all! Apologies, I'm fielding a lot of questions from lots of folks and am falling behind on live posting!

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 20/05/2026

Looking at some initial commentary...we are still very early on to make predictions. Only ~10% to 15% of the total vote has been counted (as of 7:50pm) and of the counted votes, it's mostly been in rural (but not necessarily all Republican) areas. That being said, KLB is leading with 64.1%...

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Greg Bluestein @bluestein.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The updated Election Day numbers are in, per a state official. Democrats make up 49.3% of today's vote, slightly edging Republicans, who account for 48.2%. (The rest are nonpartisan ballots.) In a state where Republicans typically outpoll Democrats on Election Day, this is a big deal. #gapol

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 20/05/2026

And, done! Election Day is (mostly) over in Georgia, except some precincts open late! Live results here: civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... (a friendlier version of the GA Sec of State page). 🚀 From the last press release from the SecState, 🔵 Dems had the lead on ballots pulled!

civicforge.solutions

Georgia 2026 Primary Results | Civic Forge Solutions

Live results for the May 19, 2026 Georgia General Primary. Statewide and county-level returns for every contest on the ballot, refreshed every five minutes from the GA Secretary of State.

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 19/05/2026

We're in the final stretch of Election Day voting in Georgia with less than 2 hours remaining. DeKalb and Fulton Counties is reporting minor wait times at a number of precincts, except for 55 minute wait times in Fulton at the East Roswell Branch Library Coming shortly - a new way to view results!

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Greg Bluestein @bluestein.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

“There’s something healthy about insiders not being able to predict what’s about to happen,” said state Sen. Josh McLaurin, a Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor. “Record turnout means democracy is working.” #gapol www.ajc.com/politics/202...

ajc.com

Georgia’s chaotic, unsettled primary season races to an unpredictable finish

Primary elections for U.S. Senate, governor and other races conclude on Tuesday. But unlike in previous cycles, the outcomes are far from certain.

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Georgia Senate Democrats @gasenatedems.com · 19/05/2026

Today is Election Day! If you haven’t voted already, make sure you get to the polls before 7 PM. If you are in line when the clock strikes 7, you are still allowed to vote — so stay in line! You can check your specific precinct location at mvp.sos.ga.gov. Happy voting!

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 19/05/2026

As of 9:05am, there's some scattered wait times in DeKalb County, and no wait reported in Fulton County. Typically, voting traffic has a small peek at lunchtime, and then heavier turnout after work hours.

**Alt-text:**

A screenshot of a mobile or web application with a dark interface displaying a list of eight different locations, each marked with a bright green pin icon. The list shows the location name, address, and current wait time with a timestamp from the morning of May 19, 2026.

The locations and details from top to bottom are:

* **Austin Drive:** 4000 Covington Highway, Decatur 30032. Wait is 10 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:33 AM.
* **Gresham Road:** 3132 Clifton Church Road SE, Atlanta 30316. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:30 AM.
* **Briarcliff:** 3039 Briarcliff Road, Atlanta 30329. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:23 AM.
* **Montgomery Elem (BHAVN):** 3995 Ashford Dunwoody Road, Atlanta 30319. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:10 AM.
* **Northlake:** 3715 LaVista Road, Decatur 30033. Wait is 5 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:14 AM.
* **Cedar Grove South:** 3430 Bouldercrest Road, Conley 30288. Wait is 0 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:12 AM.
* **Cedar Grove Elem:** 2330 River Road, Ellenwood 30294. Wait is 0 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:05 AM.
* **Metropolitan (ATL):** 542 Moreland Avenue SE, Atlanta 30316. Wait is 0 minutes as of 5/19/26, 8:09 AM.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 19/05/2026

Hi - I'm not sure what you're asking?

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 19/05/2026

Happy Election Primary Day in GA! 🎉🗳️ Polls opened across the state this morning at 7am, and voting continues until 7pm. I expect EDay turnout, relative to EV, to be 1x to 1.5x, depending on precinct. #gapol

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 18/05/2026

From the EV returns, I'm seeing Congressional districts that appear to now be competitive that were assumed to be lean Rep or toss-up. Same with a number of GA House seats. I have no doubt that those facts drove the Special Session decision by Gov. Kemp...the math is starting to work against Reps.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 18/05/2026

I'll be live-posting on Election Day in #Georgia as results roll in, tomorrow, May 19th. There's quite a few bellwether primary races that may set the political direction of the Democratic Party in GA - esp. between progressives and moderates. And, of course, the GA Supreme Court race, too!

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 18/05/2026

The Georgia EV Tracker is updated as of Friday's EV counts. And I'm sure y'all have seen the incredible Democratic turnout, too. Two big questions: 1. Will Dem outperformance continue on EDay? 2. Will the primary foreshadow results in November? civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026...

civicforge.solutions

Georgia 2026 Primary Early Voting Tracker | Civic Forge Solutions

Statewide early-voting returns for the May 19, 2026 Georgia General Primary. Daily ballots accepted, broken down by county, state house, state senate, and congressional district — with demographics by...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 16/05/2026

Morning! Lots of data to review from GA Early Vote! Key points: - Dem turnout was 2.4x of 2024, compared to Rep 1.4x - At end of EV, younger voters turned out! 1/3 of voters yesterday were <45 years old. - N. Metro ATL (Forsyth, Cherokee, Bartow, Paulding) saw >3x turnout compared to '24 #gapol

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

5:30 176,213 at D+19.2 yesterday 102,753 at D+14.5

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Seth Taylor @staylorest91.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Polls close at 7 PM and this is the line outside the Sandy Springs Library 👀👀💙💙🌊🌊 #gapol #voteblue

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 15/05/2026

To add to all the posts reporting this...we're seeing massive EV turnout in the Atlanta Metro. This is the latest from Dekalb Co, GA. Remember...if you are in line at 7pm...stay in line! #gapol

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 15/05/2026

...Gov Kemp calling a special session for post-Callais redistricting over Juneteenth(‼️). People are pissed, and the primary appears to be one of the modes that the electorate is expressing their anger. To that end, today's EV turnout will probably exceed all expectations.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 15/05/2026

...have also trended younger (see image), with voters under 65 out-performing trends observed in '24. Yesterday, turnout for voters pull Dem ballots 18 to 44 was also double what was observed in '24. My guess is that the fallout from the VRA decision is turbo-charging turnout - esp. with...

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 15/05/2026

It's a big day for Dems in GA with today, 5/15 being the last day of EV. The gap between Dem & Rep turnout is widening at ~100k / +12.1 adv to Dems. Compared to '24, Dems are voting at 2.2x compared to Reps at 1.45 This week (Mon-Thurs), Dem voters...🧵👇 civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026...

civicforge.solutions

Georgia 2026 Primary Early Voting Tracker | Civic Forge Solutions

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 15/05/2026

Yes! I'm working on a live dashboard that will be a better version of the regular Secretary of State-based results. It's going to be a momentous day.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 13/05/2026

An answer: Among those Black belt precincts - the share of Dem voters decreased by ~2 pct points. About 1/3rd of that change is due to fewer Black voters. The remaining 2/3rd is due to White Rep.-ballots pulled at higher rates Not great news, but certainly some GOTV opportunities for the general.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 13/05/2026

That’s an excellent question. I’m going dive into that tomorrow and let you know!

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 13/05/2026

Any deep dive Georgia Early Vote questions, theories, or thoughts? I'm glad to answer! 🗺️ Map below shows changes in Dem ballots pulled, by precinct, comparing this primary vs. Days 1-15 in '24.... Green = more Dem ballots now, than in '24 Red = less Dem ballots now, than in '24 #gapol

A map of Georgia showing the percentage-point difference in voter turnout between 2026 and 2024 for voting periods V1-V15, cumulative through May 13th.

The map is color-coded by precinct:

* **Dark Green:** Over 2 percentage points (pp) ahead of 2024 turnout.
* **Light Green:** 0.5 to 2 pp ahead.
* **White:** Approximately tied (within 0.5 pp).
* **Light Red:** 0.5 to 2 pp behind.
* **Dark Red:** Over 2 pp behind.

The majority of the state is shaded in light green, indicating a slight increase in turnout. Notable concentrations of dark green (significant increase) are visible in the Atlanta metropolitan area and near Savannah. Clusters of red (decreased turnout) are primarily located in the southwestern and east-central regions of the state. Surrounding states and major cities are labeled for geographic context.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 13/05/2026

In GA, political focus is typically on Metro ATL. Here's a shoutout to counties w/ the highest Dem primary turnout (Dem ballots / all reg. voters) so far in EV: - Taliaferro (pronounced 'Tolliver'): 11.7% - Rockdale: 8.8% - Muscogee (Columbus, GA): 7.4% - Dekalb (Atlanta + Metro ATL): 7.4% #gapol

An interactive digital dashboard featuring a choropleth map of Georgia, divided by county. The map displays "2026 turnout rate" for Democratic ballots, with a color scale where darker shades of blue indicate higher turnout.

**Key Dashboard Details:**

* **Selected Filters:** The "Democrat" ballot type and "County" view are active.
* **Map Mode:** The map is set to "Turnout," defined as accepted ballots divided by registered voters.
* **Turnout Legend:** * **Lightest blue/gray:** 0.00%–1.9%
* **Light blue:** 1.9%–3.3%
* **Medium blue:** 3.3%–5.2%
* **Darker blue:** 5.2%–7.4%
* **Darkest blue:** >7.4%

* **Visual Trends:** Higher turnout (darker blue) is concentrated in the metro Atlanta area, around Augusta, and in several counties in the southwest near Albany. Most other rural counties are shaded in the lighter blue ranges (0.00%–3.3%).

The map includes standard navigation tools like zoom buttons and is powered by Mapbox and OpenStreetMap.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 12/05/2026

So, what do these results mean? Dem enthusiasm is the clear winner 🔵 🚀 in GA, relative to Rep turnout. Good news for the Dem-favored candidates in GA Supreme Court race + an indicator of enthusiasm headed into Nov. Data also suggests more House/Senate districts are flippable... #gapol

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 12/05/2026

The #Georgia EV tracker is updated daily at civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... As of 5/11 data, Dem ballots outnumber Rep ballots by 57k (54.5% of all primary votes). Dems voting 2x compared to '24, while Rep are 1.4x. Turnout model predicts nearly 1 million‼️ EV before E-Day. Analysis🧵👇 #gapol

civicforge.solutions

Georgia 2026 Primary Early Voting Tracker | Civic Forge Solutions

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 08/05/2026

EV Update: Democrats are also maintaining a massive turnout advantage in GA, with +9.1 so far. Why is this important? In addition to partisan primaries, we also have a Supreme Court and Appeals Court race - important seats with impacts on policy in GA. civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... #gapol

This graphic provides a detailed breakdown of early voting statistics in Georgia for the 2026 cycle, specifically comparing Democratic and Republican ballot counts against the same period in 2024. The data reflects a significant increase in early participation for both major parties, though the growth rates and total volumes differ.

Democratic Ballot Statistics
The Democratic party currently holds a lead in total early ballots cast, accounting for 53.8% of the 389,306 accepted ballots.

Total Ballots: 209,349 (representing 2.8% of all registered Democratic voters).

Voting Method: The vast majority were cast in-person (200,750), followed by mail-in (8,331) and electronic (268).

Year-over-Year Growth: This represents a massive 197% increase compared to the 106,315 ballots cast during the same period in 2024, an addition of 103,034 voters.

Republican Ballot Statistics
The Republican party accounts for 44.7% of the total accepted ballots.

Total Ballots: 174,159 (representing 2.4% of all registered Republican voters).

Voting Method: Similar to the Democrats, the bulk of these were in-person (168,043), with 6,080 mail-in and 36 electronic ballots.

Year-over-Year Growth: Republican turnout has also seen a sharp rise, up 133% from the 130,669 ballots cast in the equivalent 2024 period, adding 43,490 voters to their total.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 08/05/2026

It's been a fairly crummy day in political news 😞 And it's tough to find bright spots, but there are. (I promise!) Of the 180 House Districts, 118 are seeing net gains in Dem ballots pulled - esp. in uncontested Rep. Districts (see map). Same with 37 of 56 of State Senate districts, net Dem gains!

The provided map illustrates a shifting political landscape in Georgia as of May 2026, comparing current early voting data to the Day 11 benchmark from the 2024 election. The data measures the Democratic share of all ballots cast per district, highlighting whether the party is overperforming or underperforming its relative turnout from the previous presidential cycle. Broadly, the map is dominated by varying shades of blue, indicating that in most districts, Democratic-affiliated voters make up a larger percentage of the electorate now than they did at this point two years ago.

The most consistent gains for the Democratic share are concentrated in the Atlanta metropolitan area and its surrounding northern suburbs. This trend suggests a continuation of the suburban realignment that has defined Georgia politics over the last several years, with high-density areas maintaining or increasing their participation levels. Interestingly, significant "dark blue" clusters—representing a percentage-point increase of 16.2 or higher—are also visible in the southern and southeastern coastal regions of the state, suggesting a surge in relative turnout in more rural or coastal communities compared to the 2024 baseline.

In contrast, several regions in East-Central and Southwest Georgia appear in shades of red, signaling that the Democratic share of the electorate in those specific districts has contracted. These areas, particularly those bordering South Carolina and the regions surrounding Albany, are currently underperforming their 2024 participation levels. This creates a polarized map where urban and coastal gains are being offset by a relative decrease in Democratic engagement in the state’s interior rural corridors.

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 08/05/2026

Very late EV update (during a busy week!) After 10 days of EV, Dems still have a +10 advantage in # of ballots pulled. Compared to '24 primaries, Dem voter share has doubled, while Rep voter share is up 50% civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... #gapol

civicforge.solutions

Georgia 2026 Primary Early Voting Tracker | Civic Forge Solutions

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 05/05/2026

GA Early Voting Update: 3.6% total turnout, compared to 2.4% at Day 8 of EV in '24 Dems maintain advantage with +11.3 over republicans, measured by ballots pulled Notable stats: Black voter share is +6.1, compared with '24; White voter turnout is -6.1 civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... #gapol

civicforge.solutions

Georgia 2026 Primary Early Voting Tracker | Civic Forge Solutions

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/05/2026

Note that higher share of Dem EV votes doesn't mean that a House District will flip blue (see map). There are still many ruby-red districts out-of-reach for Dems...but, increasing shares of votes for Dems makes statewide races competitive + adding more districts to the toss-up column. #gapol

$This map provides a visual breakdown of the Democratic share of total ballots in Georgia, specifically modeled or projected for **2026**. It uses a color-coded heat map to display political leanings across various districts. --- ## **Key Takeaways from the Map** ### **1. The Color Logic** The map is centered on a **50% threshold**: * **Blue Shades:** Represent a Democratic majority (over 50%). The darker the blue, the higher the Democratic share. * **Red Shades:** Represent a Democratic minority (under 50%). The darker the red, the lower the Democratic share (and likely the higher the Republican share). * **Scale:** The legend indicates the spectrum ranges from $\le 13\%$ to $\ge 87\%$. ### **2. Geographic Trends** * **The Urban Core (Atlanta):** As expected, the most concentrated area of dark blue is the **Atlanta metropolitan area**. This region shows a very high Democratic majority, with the darkest blues concentrated in the city center and radiating into its immediate suburbs. * **Secondary Urban Hubs:** You can see "islands" of blue or light blue around other major cities such as **Augusta**, **Columbus**, **Savannah** (southeast coast), and **Albany**. * **The Rural North:** Northern Georgia is dominated by deep red, indicating a strong Democratic minority and a high concentration of Republican-leaning voters. * **The "Black Belt":** A visible band of light blue and pale red stretches across the center-south of the state, historically corresponding to regions with higher African American populations and more competitive or Democratic-leaning voting patterns. --- ## **Data Context** The map includes a "Map Mode" selector at the top, showing that this specific view is for **DEM ÷ ALL** (Democratic ballots divided by all ballots).$

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/05/2026

...total turnout at end of EV is expected to nearly double compared to '24. This map shows Dem pickups by State House District, relative to '24 primary. Darker blue means more Dem votes as % of all EV votes. Lots of +10, +15, etc., in very red districts in N. GA and SE GA. #gapol #earlyvote

$This map illustrates the **change in the Democratic share of ballots** in Georgia for the **2026 election cycle** compared to the same point in the **2024 election**. Specifically, it tracks the percentage-point difference ($\Delta$) in the partisan makeup of the electorate. Here is a breakdown of what the data represents: ### **The Metric** The map uses a "$\Delta$ DEM share" mode. The calculation compares the proportion of ballots cast by Democrats so far in 2026 against the first seven days of voting in 2024: $$(Democratic / Total\ Ballots)_{2026} - (Democratic / Total\ Ballots)_{2024}$$ ### **The Color Legend** * **Blue:** Indicates that Democrats currently make up a **larger share** of the voters in that district than they did at this point in 2024. Darker blue represents a more significant increase (up to $+17.5$ percentage points). * **Red:** Indicates that Democrats make up a **smaller share** of the voters compared to 2024. Darker red represents a sharper decline (down to $-17.5$ percentage points). * **White/Light Colors:** Indicate areas where the partisan share is relatively stable or unchanged from the 2024 baseline. ### **Observations** * **Geographic Shifts:** Much of the map, particularly in **South Georgia** and the **Northwest**, shows deep blue shades, suggesting that Democratic-leaning voters in these areas are participating at a higher relative rate than in the previous cycle. * **Atlanta Metro:** The area around Atlanta shows a mix of light blue and light red, indicating that the partisan balance in the state's most populous region is remaining closer to the 2024 baseline compared to the more dramatic shifts in rural areas. In short, this is a tool for political analysts to see if one party is "over-performing" or "under-performing" their previous turnout patterns in real-time.$

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 04/05/2026

#Georgia Early Vote Tracker updated at civicforge.solutions/data/ga-2026... with some new features: view stats by any EV day (or days!) Over the weekend, 64% of ballots pulled were 🔵 Dems, higher than 1st EV weekend in '24 (54%) Overall EV Dem turnout is 1.7%, compared to 1.3% for 🔴 Reps. #gapol

civicforge.solutions

Georgia 2026 Primary Early Voting Tracker | Civic Forge Solutions

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Civic Forge Solutions @hello.civicforge.solutions · 02/05/2026

Some stats from GA Early Vote for Day 5: Total turnout is 2.7%, higher than Day 5 in '24 (1.8%) Dems still hold the advantage in ballots returned (53.6%) vs Reps (44.8%) Dem turnout top demo: Black 65+ female voters (for Repubs: White 65+ male voters) + Big declines with mail-in voting #gapol

The 2026 statewide Democrat ballot turnout shows a notable shift toward older and Black voters compared to the same period in 2024. The 65+ demographic currently commands the largest share of accepted ballots at 58%—a 4% increase from 2024—while participation among voters under 45 remains relatively low at a combined 11%. Racially, the share of ballots from Black voters has risen to 64% (up from 61%), while the share from White voters has dipped slightly to 25%. Gender dynamics remain consistent with previous cycles; female voters maintain a strong majority at 61%, though this represents a marginal 1% decrease from 2024, as the male share has ticked up to 39%. Overall, while older and Black demographics show the highest turnout rates, the younger and minority groups like Hispanic and Asian voters continue to represent a smaller, though slightly growing, portion of the early voting electorate.

$A data dashboard titled "Turnout by demographic" displaying statewide marginals for Republican ballots in 2026 compared to day 5 of 2024. The data is organized into three sections: Age, Race, and Gender, each featuring a donut chart and a detailed breakdown. * **Age:** The 65+ demographic represents the largest share at 68% (up from 59% in 2024), followed by ages 45–64 at 24% (down from 29%). Younger cohorts represent a small fraction: 30–44 (5%) and 18–29 (2%). * **Race:** The electorate is overwhelmingly White at 91% (virtually unchanged from 90% in 2024). Other categories include "Other" at 5%, Black at 2%, and Hispanic and Asian both at 1%. * **Gender:** Males represent 53% of accepted ballots (an increase from 48% in 2024), while Females represent 47% (a decrease from 51% in 2024). The dashboard includes navigation filters at the top, showing that "Republican" ballots are currently selected for comparison against "day 5 of 2024." Under each category, solid bars represent the 2026 share, while faint background bars represent the 2024 comparison share.$

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