hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 6mAll fair points, perhaps I'm overindexing to candidate quality (or lack thereof) on the Republican side, and maybe levels of college educated voters. Guess we'll see! 010
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 30mMy hot take is Kansas will be to the left of Iowa 110
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 3hI'm not sure if the trends will hold but it would be funny if after the last 20 years of polarization 2028 saw a lot of states within 5/10 points. Feels like a cause for optimism actually if it holds 140
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 3hIf the NY21 poll today is to be believed, this trend even applies within blue states (suggests upstate Red districts will swing left but suburban districts near NYC won't as much). Arguably best case scenario for Dems this cycle 160
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 15hWho needs this DoW firing squad when you can see Jon Ossoff kill a man live on a debate stage? 0293
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 08/10/2026This is basically the story of Japan I believe- Tokyo is still strong while rural areas are collapsing in population 050
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Marshall hasn't released any internals right? I'm not sure I'm ready to believe yet but that does seem telling 120
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Kind of feels like there may be some inflection point in like 15 years where EVs really take off and are suddenly discussing bailouts all over again 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 06/10/2026The Big 3 go all in on big gas guzzling cars right as oil prices spike? 2008 all over again: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...bloomberg.com 100
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Sidenote- I'm laughing at Worrell saying blue hills needs "realistic" transportation planning while calling for an orange line extension that will never happen 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Housing is another example- Squares and Streets did two neighborhoods but has seemingly stalled out with ~12 more squares to go. They should be doing 4+ neighborhoods a year, even the zoning board called for it to move faster! 110
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 05/10/2026So you have these situations where they make Columbus Ave BRT worse but are also pushing the Blue Hills Ave BRT forward (and just finished great improvements to Cummins highway) 110
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 05/10/2026There's this strange contradiction in her second term, I think partially because while she has become overly cautious she has staffed her admin with a lot of well meaning people who can still make improvements 120
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 05/10/2026It truly drives me crazy that Wu came into office with solid urban liberal beliefs (increase zoning, more support for BRT, bike lanes, etc), blew out the opposition, and then... Walked away from all those plans 1102
Reposted by @hanseatic.bsky.socialDr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 04/10/2026i do think that texas is central to the contemporary conservative imaginary, and when they lose it this fall it is causing to lead to some truly demented reactions from the reactionverse 3565768
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 03/10/2026But also I think a lot of voters would notice she specifically doesn't mention her husband, just says "the whole team" 040
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 03/10/2026If you showed me these two charts I would assume Turek is ahead, not down by 1 070
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Dems potentially winning by +5 in Georgia, NC, and Texas while potentially scraping by in OH/MI/MN validates my theory that the next big debate among Dems after the election is whether to make the full Sunbelt pivot 110
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 03/10/2026NYT polls have always been level headed, and IMO this lines up with where I think we're ultimately headed: Dems winning the Senate but without a complete rout with 53+ seats 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Alaska might honestly be close to selling out their ad space (it's happened before), and if GA/NC are off the board then Dems should be plowing all their remaining PAC money to Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Michigan. Maybe some dark money for NE/SD/ID if they're feeling spicy 010
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The good thing about the GOP triaging GA/NC is Schumer can hopefully redirect all that money to TX/KS while Ossoff/Cooper drown their opponents in hard money 140
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Disgusting racism aside, this feels extremely self-defeating by Rufo, who seems to have largely gotten away with his facade of "anti-DEI intellectual". It's a real mask-off moment for how racist his goals really are 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Rufo got away with taking a hammer to DEI/universities in general, but going forward how can you not mention this insanely racist screed anytime he comes up? 110
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Nate Silver wrote something up about this last week but it drives me crazy every cycle there's only like 1 news article that actually compares GRP instead of money. Probably because the $ amount is easy to identify but GRP data is only tracked by private companies 080
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 01/10/2026The Pulido internal for TX GOV suggests that's likely at least a tossup too 010
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 01/10/2026When Democrats inevitably need to find pay-fors for permanent expansions of the social safety net, eliminating tax credits for private schools seems like a good start, given it'll likely generate $200B in revenue: www.wsj.com/personal-fin...wsj.comSchool-Choice Tax Credit Gets Big Boost From TreasuryMarried couples can donate double, making the tax break worth $3,400, not $1,700. 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 29/09/2026I think this is a common theme of the committees- see DSCC putting money into NH but not TX. In general I think they play for a small majority rather than trying to run the table 001
Reposted by @hanseatic.bsky.socialrev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 28/09/2026i think RFK Jr.'s colon-destroying steak and sauerkraut diet, tradwife culture, and Silicon Valley CNC parties are the same thing: a desperate attempt among powerful men to convince each other that gluttony, rapaciousness, and raw domination are not just their birthright but their responsibility 191494238
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 27/09/2026My hope is that the legislature allows duplexes on all lots as part of the economic development package, and requires towns to approve subdividing lots automatically. Take a 2 acre lot into 32 units immediately 020
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 26/09/2026I realize the party was split here (and in retrospect Bodnar should have just run as a D), but the lesson from Nebraska is just run a candidate from the party who explicitly says they'll drop out 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 26/09/2026No I know, I'm just wondering what she said that made people think that, given that she indicated she was never dropping out almost immediately after the primary 220
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Explain to me why people backed her in the primary? Like what made them think she was going to drop out? 100
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Right, especially if there are big legislature gains, 2028 opens more opportunities if Dems have the governorship 000
Reposted by @hanseatic.bsky.socialSam @samd.bsky.social · 25/09/2026it’s genuinely fascinating how establishment democratic politics in big cities has become so ossified and incompetent that they’ve created a huge lane for the left to embrace good government reforms and build a broad coalition of socialists and technocrats 351992303
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 25/09/2026The biggest fear I have at the moment this election is that Dems come up just short in a few governor races like TX/GA that we'll look back at with regret on that more wasn't done 100
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 25/09/2026That said I do hope KLB/Dems can scrounge up a few million for the final stretch since I do think there's a big difference between no ads and some ads even if she's badly outspent 010
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 25/09/2026IMO a problem is Jackson is a bottomless well of self-funding. The DGA coming up with $10 million would definitely help, but I imagine Jackson then immediately dumps $20 million more of his own money. Better to spend PAC money where you're countering fungible GOP PAC funds 200
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I suspect there will be a very brutal Politico article about her campaign that will get published between October and November. It's equally crazy she won so clearly, and she ran in the first place (when she seemingly doesn't even want it!). But also a lot of bad luck with other candidates 010
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 23/09/2026If KLB loses this she should be persona non grata in the party. Jackson by all accounts is running a good campaign (and an insane amount of money), but you have to at least try 110
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The last two Marist polls (this and Iowa) seem overly rosy for Dems, but boy is it nice to dream 020
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Georgia is definitely moving towards the Democrats, but I wonder if we look back at 2026 as the start of North Carolina's tilt towards Democrats the way 2018/2020 was for Georgia 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 22/09/2026If Cooper/Ossoff are winning by 10 some surprising stuff might happen with their state houses, and fringe House seats come into play, and makes the Georgia governor race an easier lift 100
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The GOP conceding GA/NC is smart but what really interests me is the impact down ballot. Lots of interesting races in both states that could be impacted by the GOP abandoning the state and Ossoff/Cooper not letting off the gas 100
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 22/09/2026It's the perfect story too because "I bring home the bacon for Maine" is her whole argument. Now you can flip that around on her 010
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 22/09/2026This story might be a big deal for her because of how much it cuts against her core argument that she can bring home the bacon for Maine via her seniority 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I really doubt these numbers are legit, but it is supremely funny Sept 1 hit and every undecided voter simultaneously declared holy war against the GOP 000
Reposted by @hanseatic.bsky.socialSecretary of Defense Rock @sodrock.bsky.social · 21/09/2026I’ll actually believe it if Hamilton gets like 48% with the libertarian at 2-3% in a high quality poll in a few weeks but there is definitely blood in the water 5803
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 21/09/2026An absolutely infuriating thing is that Trump definitely will not connect this to Russia's attempt to collapse Ukraine's energy grid, so instead of putting any pressure on Russia, Trump only sees this as a way to pressure Ukraine 000
hanseatic.bsky.social @hanseatic.bsky.social · 21/09/2026I think Ukraine/Russia have different aims here- Russia is trying to target Ukrainian cities with power plants, factories etc. Russia's vulnerability isn't their power grid but rather their oil industry, so Ukraine attacks that to try and force a ceasefire on an energy infrastructure 000
