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Hannah Slaughter

@hannahslaughter.bsky.social
767 followers 110 following 100 posts

Principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, covering the labour market and living standards.

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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
How much this matters for policy depends on why it's happening (people can't get the hours they want? health? caring responsibilities? or just want to work less?) - but means that our wider debate around labour supply, which has mainly been focused on people out of work entirely, may be too narrow.
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Do read Simon's thread for our full take on the ONS's new productivity estimates. But worth noting this also has implications for our wider understanding of the labour market - it suggests that average working hours have been falling, not flatlining, since the financial crisis.
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Simon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
@hannahslaughter.bsky.social and I have just published our take on the ONS's new productivity estimates. They don't change the unavoidable reality of UK economic stagnation, but they do challenge the consensus on its causes. A short summary ⤵️
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 25/09/2026
🚨 The ONS has been overestimating the number of hours worked in the economy. In correcting the numbers, they've solved one puzzle and created two more. But ultimately, the good news has come too late for the Chancellor ⤵️ buff.ly/zvAuM4g
Simon Pittaway, Principal Economics at the Resolution Foundation, said:

“ONS revisions to its productivity data may have rewritten a key chapter of Britain’s recent economic history. The mystery of our terrible post-financial crisis record has apparently been ‘solved’, while new questions have emerged – such as why workers’ have reduced their hours during a period of acute wage stagnation.

“The revisions paint a more positive picture of the UK economy but we shouldn’t get carried away. We still have big productivity gaps with Germany and France, while household incomes – the ultimate beneficiary of higher productivity – have not been revised up.

“Finally, the new data means the OBR productivity assumption is more pessimistic than the UK’s post financial crisis performance. The OBR may revisit its assumption in time, but sadly for the Chancellor this is unlikely to affect the forecast at this Budget.”
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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
New labour market statistics out this morning – and this month's data include the pay growth figure that will feed into the next 'triple lock' uprating of the State Pension. Mine and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social's @resolutionfoundation.org response thread:
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Today the Government's public consultation on its plan to end exploitative zero-hours contracts draws to a close. I've taken a look at 3 decisions they need to make, that, if they get right, could improve the lives of millions of workers. 👇 resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/zero-to-hero
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
Zero to hero?
Three decisions, millions of workers, one chance to get it right
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This is especially bad news for workers since inflation is expected to rise in the second half of the year, increasing the the risk of further real wage falls.
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This means that workers in the public sector have experienced fairly strong real wage growth of 3.1% over the past year. But workers in the private sector have seen their wages * fall * in real terms over the past year, with real wage growth standing at –0.1%.
Annual growth in average weekly earnings (regular pay), adjusted for CPIH inflation, by sector: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
But beneath the surface, there's a big difference in the wage story in the public and private sectors. Wage growth in the public sector (6.1%) is much higher than in the private sector (2.8%) - though year-on-year public sector pay growth is affected by variations in the timing of pay awards.
Annual growth in nominal average weekly earnings (regular pay), by sector: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Turning to pay, and nominal pay growth was also fairly flat. Across the economy as a whole, nominal pay growth stood at 3.5%, barely changed from last month's figure (3.4%). This means that real wages continue to stay just above inflation, with average wages increasing by 0.5% in real terms.
Annual growth in average weekly earnings (regular pay) and CPIH inflation: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This meant that the employment rate we calculate based on administrative data has continued to fall. It stood at 73.1% in Q2 2026, down from 73.1% in Q1 2026 and well below its recent peak of 76.5% in early 2023.
16-64 employment rate: UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Payrolled jobs were also more or less flat on the month (a marginal fall of 13k). But more generally the ongoing payrolled jobs has picked up pace over the course of this year – the economy lost 39k jobs in Q2 of this year compared to 8k in Q1, a rate of change more similar to early 2025.
Number of paid employees according to real-time PAYE data: UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
There wasn’t much change in the employment data this month. The unemployment rate stood steady at 4.9%, with a lot of volatility in the underlying single-month figures.
16+ unemployment rate (Labour Force Survey): UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Today’s labour market statistics show that the decent GDP growth from the early summer isn’t (yet) translating into stronger employment and pay, which both remained fairly flat in the latest month. Our @resolutionfoundation.org thread from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵...
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 12/08/2026
New analysis shows that paid work – and not screen time – is the biggest reason people are spending more time alone ⤵️ buff.ly/v7pfxOa
Change in the number of hours of non-sleep time per day spent alone doing various activities among men (left side) and women (right side) between 2014-15 and 2023, by age group: UK
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 29/07/2026
The Prime Minister said this morning that care workers ‘’should be the best paid people in society, not the worst.’’ So how do their pay and conditions currently look, and how can they be improved? Plus, what might this mean for unpaid carers? 🧵⤵️
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 29/07/2026
Andy Burnham said today that social care workers should be ''the best paid people in society.'' According to providers, pay is a key factor contributing to the recruitment and retention crisis in the care sector. So how can the Government make a success of the Fair Pay Agreement?➡️ buff.ly/veEOJFN
When social care providers were asked what 
the main cause of staff leaving was (the left-hand panel of Figure 6), over one-third (35 
per cent) responded better pay outside of care. Similarly, when care providers were asked 
about the main difficulty finding new staff, roughly three-in-ten (28 per cent) responded 
better pay offers outside care (the right side of Figure 6).
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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Responding to new labour market stats out this morning, we've taken a step back to look at the legacy the Starmer govt left to Andy Burnham – higher unemployment and fewer payrolled jobs, but some real wage growth and shrinking regional pay gaps. A thread with @hannahslaughter.bsky.social 🧵:
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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
This morning’s data shows a weak labour market: unemployment remains high and real wages are barely growing. The monthly LFS unemployment data is volatile but the big picture is that unemployment has been climbing for the past few years and stood at 4.9% in the three months to April.
Chart showing - Unemployment rate (Labour Force Survey): UK
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 27/05/2026
🚨 Tomorrow: Can workers in precarious sectors exert influence over pay and working conditions? We'll be hosting a disussion on our latest research looking at individual worker power in low-paid and precarious sectors. Sign up here: buff.ly/5VmNszO
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 22/05/2026
🚨Less than a week left to apply!🚨 We're recruiting for three exciting permanent roles within our Research and Policy team, at different levels of experience. Find our more and apply now ➡️ buff.ly/N4Xuj8b
Economist / Research and Policy Analyst

We are looking for a thoughtful and committed Economist or Research and Policy Analyst to join our research team to help drive the production of high-quality, innovative economic analysis, and to support the development of associated policy recommendations.

Salary: £45,170 – £56,990Senior Economist / Research and Policy Analyst

The Resolution Foundation is looking for a motivated and experienced individual to join our research team to help drive the production of high quality, innovative economic analysis and the development of associated policy recommendations with a specific focus on one of: living standards and distributional analysis; productivity and economic growth; or public finances and public spending.

Salary: £56,990 – £70,300

Closing date: 08:59am on Thursday 28 May 2026Principal Economist / Research and Policy Analyst

The Resolution Foundation is looking for a motivated and experienced Principal Economist or Research and Policy Analyst to drive the production of high quality, innovative economic analysis and the development of associated policy recommendations with a specific focus on economic growth and productivity.

Salary: £70,300 – £82,900

Closing date: 08:59am on Thursday 28 May 2026
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 15/05/2026
In our latest Substack, Research Trainee Jamie Titus-Glover looks at how income inequality between ethnic minorities and their White counterparts has changed over the past three decades. Though there are signs of progress, big disparities remain ⬇️ buff.ly/pX0vG2a
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
The UK has become more equal but ethnic minorities still earn less than their White counterparts
RF Research Trainee Jamie Titus-Glover takes a look at how income inequality between ethnic minorities and their White counterparts has changed over the past three decades.
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Indeed, when we compare single month pay estimates for February 2025 and 2026, workers’ pay has actually decreased by 68p a week. After just three years of real pay growth following the last cost of living crisis, workers look set to be entering another period of shrinking pay packets.
Real average weekly earnings (regular pay): GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
But while this might reduce the chances of a wage-price spiral, it's bad news for workers whose real wage growth is diminishing. After factoring in inflation, wages grew by 0.2% in the year to Feb. Any further weakening in nominal pay – or uptick in inflation – will turn real wage growth negative.
Annual growth in average weekly earnings (regular pay) and CPIH inflation: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Turning to pay, and wages are continuing to weaken. Across the economy as a whole, wages rose by 3.6% in the year to February, and by just 3.2% in the private sector. Again, this is very different to the picture in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine – back then, private sector wage growth was 4.9%.
Growth in nominal private sector average weekly earnings, change since a year earlier and annualised change compared to three months earlier: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Overall, the lab mkt is far looser than when Russia invaded Ukraine. This means one silver lining going into this energy price shock: in 2022 workers responded to inflation by demanding higher wages, driving up inflation further and contributing to interest rate rises. That’s less likely this time.
16+ unemployment rate (left panel) and vacancy rate (right panel): UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
There's also been a small fall in unemployment for 16-24-year-olds, which declined by 0.2 ppts, to 15.8%. But youth unemployment is still persistently higher than the unemployment rate across all ages, with a gap of 10.9 ppts.
Unemployment rate, by age: UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
But this month there was a surprise fall in the unemployment rate, which fell from 5.2% in the three months to Jan to 4.9% in the three months to Feb. That’s been driven by a 0.8 ppt drop in the single-month rate over the last two months(!), potentially indicating volatility in the underlying data…
Unemployment rate: UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
The big picture is that the labour market has been cooling for over a year now – but the very latest data is mixed. Payrolled employment has resumed its gradual decline (down by 11,000 in March and 6,000 in February), and RF’s employment rate estimate has also continued to fall.
Number of paid employees according to real-time PAYE data: UK16-64 employment rate: UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
This morning’s stats show that the labour market remains loose, with high unemployment (albeit with a surprise fall in the latest month) and weak wage growth. A thread about what this means as we go into an energy price shock from me, @louisemurphy.bsky.social and @jametg.bsky.social:
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Over the longer term, the challenges facing the FWA and the new responsibilities it will take on mean it’s more important than ever that it has the funding and powers it needs to succeed. Read the full piece here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Labour Market Outlook Q1 2026 • Resolution Foundation
The Employment Rights Act marks the biggest overhaul of workers’ rights in a generation. But even the most ambitious employment rights will benefit workers only if they are enforced effectively. And c...
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Financial penalties are also too low to deter non-compliance. Penalties for min wage underpayment are only up to 2x the arrears owed, and half of cases are ‘self-corrected’ and attract no penalty at all. We recommend increasing penalties to up to 4x the arrears owed.
Value of National Minimum Wage arrears identified, by whether HMRC-assessed or self-corrected: UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
The FWA’s budget (announced today) will be around a quarter higher in real terms than its predecessors. This is welcome, as the UK falls well short of international benchmarks for inspector numbers, but comes in the context of its remit expanding – so the Government should keep this under review.
Real-terms (2026-27 prices) budget of the labour market enforcement agencies that have become part of the Fair Work Agency: GB/UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
But creating the FWA should be the starting point for reform, not the end. The long-run success of the FWA depends on its resources and powers.
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
The creation of the FWA marks a step change in the UK’s approach to enforcing workers’ rights, reducing fragmentation and bringing the UK more into line with international practice. It’ll be a single point of contact for workers and employers alike, and enable better information sharing.
Government departments responsible for enforcing labour market law: England and Wales/GB/UK, March 2026
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Enforcement reform is much needed. It’s hard to know exactly how much unlawful behaviour exists, but survey data suggests that 445,000 jobs pay below the minimum wage, 2.2m jobs come with no paid annual leave, and 1.4m workers don’t receive a payslip.
Estimated scale of selected labour market violations: GB/UK, various dates
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Today the Fair Work Agency was launched, bringing enforcement of several employment rights under one roof. This is a really welcome move, but its impact will depend on its resources and powers. A thread summarising the latest RF Labour Market Outlook: 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Labour Market Outlook Q1 2026 • Resolution Foundation
The Employment Rights Act marks the biggest overhaul of workers’ rights in a generation. But even the most ambitious employment rights will benefit workers only if they are enforced effectively. And c...
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Lalitha Try @lalithatry.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Happy new tax year to all who celebrate! Here's a quick 🧵on the tax and benefit changes coming in this month in the context of rising energy bills. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Happy new tax year 2026 • Resolution Foundation
The start of April marks the beginning of the new tax year, meaning households will face a wide range of tax, benefit and utility bill changes. Benefit changes in April will boost incomes for the poor...
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Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Today’s labour market stats were better than expected – headline unemployment didn’t rise thanks to a surprise Jan single month number, and payrolled jobs rose. Real wages are still growing (slowly), but war in the middle east clouds the outlook there. Thread from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 04/03/2026
Changes to benefits and projected wage growth mean 2026-27 could see progressive income growth. But this week’s dramatic swings in energy prices loom large over the near-term living standards forecast...
Chart showing Annual real growth in median equivalised household disposable income after housing costs, by non-pensioner income vigintile: UK
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Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Today’s labour market statistics show that the UK’s unemployment problem is growing, with youth unemployment at its highest rate in over a decade. Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social :
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 08/02/2026
🚨 New Britain’s ‘unsung’ army – a million people in poorer working-age households now have full-time unpaid caring responsibilities .
Mike Brewer, Deputy Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, said:
“Britain is getting older and sicker, while a greater share of its population has a disability. While these trends affect the whole of society, they are starkest in the poorest half of working-age families across the country.
“But while we talk a lot about the effects of ageing and ill-health, the implications on demand for unpaid care is largely absent from political debate. That’s despite Britain having an ‘unsung army’ of one million people who do at least 35 hours of unpaid care work every week – equivalent to a full-time job.
“It is time to provide better support for these carers and their families, just as we have done with working parents in recent decades. Carers deserve greater financial support in Universal Credit, more help to stay in work if they want to, and decent social care system to help the relieve the pressure on families.”
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Simon Pittaway @simonpittaway.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Unchanged wage growth + less inflation = stronger real wages. The Bank projects more than twice as much real pay growth in the next three years (3.5%) as the OBR does over the next five (1.6%). If the Bank is right, that's a much rosier outlook for living standards.
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 25/01/2026
Applications for our Research Training Programme 2026 are now open. Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic graduates are invited to apply for a 12-week training programme based in our Westminster office and paid at the London Living Wage. Details here 👉 buff.ly/nHoxxJM
Research Training Programme 2026
12-week training programme 
February - April 2026
Westminster

Applications are invited from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic graduates

Apply by: 08:59 am
Friday 30 January 2026

Full details can be found on the Opportunities page of the Resolution Foundation website
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Taking a step back reveals an even bleaker picture. After accounting for inflation, average weekly wages are just £31 above their pre-financial crisis peak – a massive £281 below where they would have been if wages had continued to grow at their pre-crisis rate.
Real average weekly earnings (regular pay), actual, pre-recession peak and pre-recession trend: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
This is bad news for workers: weekly earnings rose by just just £4.98 in real terms over the 12 months to November 2025 – barely enough to cover the cost of a high-street meal-deal.
Real average weekly earnings (regular pay): GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Economy-wide nominal wage growth remained strong – at 4.5% in the year to November 2025. But with inflation still above the 2 per cent target, this means that regular wages have grown by just 0.6% in real-terms in the 3-months to November compared to last year.
Annual growth in average weekly earnings (regular pay) and CPIH inflation: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
On pay, there's some evidence that wage growth may gradually be picking up the pace. Annual growth in private sector nominal wages continued to fall – but looking at a shorter-term measure (the annualised 3-month change), private sector pay growth ticked up to 3% between Jun-Aug and Sep-Nov 2025.
Growth in nominal private sector average weekly earnings, change since a year earlier and annualised change compared to three months earlier: GB
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
On the slightly more positive side, however, vacancies have stopped falling - which, together with the fact that the unemployment rate is essentially unchanged on the previous month, suggests that unemployment could have peaked for the time being, albeit at too high a level.
Vacancy rate, by industry: UK
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Hannah Slaughter @hannahslaughter.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
And it’s worth remembering that all of the fall in employment relative to pre-Covid has been driven by unemployment, not inactivity – the UK lacks jobs, not just jobseekers. See our Q4 2025 Labour Market Outlook for more: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Change in the 16-64 employment rate compared to January 2020, and contributions from participation and unemployment: UK
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