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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 4h

Not sure this is correct. My understanding is the length of the subsidy is 15 years, but the term of the mortgage can be longer and taken out on the assumption that after 15 years the remainder will be at a market rate..

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 11h

Except they don't and aren't, they just have some never trumpers on staff, which is a very different beast. A better kick would be to remind folk of The Atlantic's campus cancel culture BS that Anne Applebaum, Tom Nichols and, don't leave him alone with a female student, Yascha Mounk were all in to.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 11h

It's The Atlantic, you're kicking a centre-Right dog - that just hired David Brooks and is addicted to both siding anything and everything - for going woof.

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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 18h

10/ "We took the fortification. We counted [Ukrainian] bodies – one, two. Twenty or even thirty [Russian bodies] are scattered across the forest belt. "Awesome arithmetic!"...

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

TBF lots of very serious Americans are in denial about the fact American agreements, regardless of actual compliance, only last as long as the current administration decides they do, be that with Iran, Canada, etc., and are oblivious to the practical and reputational consequences of this position.

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Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy

Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Our latest forecast for #Russia 2026-28 is out! Basically our view is unchanged from the spring: Growth remains anemic, mostly driven by war-related industries. Other sectors stagnate or contract. 1/ @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi www.bofit.fi/en/bofit/new...

bofit.fi

BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028 / 2

The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) is an internationally renowned research institute specialising in emerging economies and global economic developments.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

An opportunity created by the only new sanctions the Trump administration has applied to Russia

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

"bribes from enemy powers" perfectly captures the present state of American denialism. The current US admin. simply doesn't view Russia as an "enemy power" or - see the 2025 NSS - a "direct threat" to the US, and has aligned American policy with this position e.g. inviting Russians to G20 shindigs.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

There again, a 2% mortgage has more practical appeal than the Order of Maternal Glory medals Soviet Russia awarded mothers who met Kremlin defined "demographic goals".

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

So for most new applicants what was a 6% mortgage is now 10% or 12%. This increase in expense will reduce the number of eligible applicants at a time when market rate demand remains muted, and multiple inflationary pressures argue against significant rate cuts.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Russia has introduced differentiated mortgage subsidies after all, so bad luck housebuilders. Big families still get big subsidies, but the vast majority (the Russian fertility rate is 1.37) not so much, while those in Moscow or St Petersburg (c.41% of all new mortgages in August) get even less.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Labour government that's launching a Your First Home Scheme doesn't care about economic growth? Spits tea over however many N.F.R Crafts papers and articles inspired by his work.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

better viewed in relation to the broader economy (its contribution to economic growth/use as a policy lever), the health of the construction sector in particular, as a federal government expense and the broader social contract of vote Putin get an apartment (in a country with 92% owner occupation)

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Assuming no financial crisis due to other factors, it doesn't for the foreseeable future. If you take "close to 2%" as a pain point (see US/UK graphs for rules of thumb), the current rate of decline won't get there for >18 months. Rather than will banks lose money here, I think mortgage data is

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

m-o-m jump in total overdue mortgage debt. The rise and fall seen in 2025 has given way to a staccato pattern, which has had the cumulative effect of returning the rate at which the mortgage book’s credit quality is deteriorating back to that seen during the first 3 quarters of 2025.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Russian mortgages: No relief for housebuilders after demand for new mortgages remained muted in August. Indeed, market rate borrowing fell compared to July, an argument against the proposed introduction of differentiated mortgage subsidies. Despite repeated rate cuts this year, August also saw a

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

* aside from being repeatedly community noted on twitter and getting pissy about Mark Carney and middle powers, 'bridge's main policy achievement to date has been using stock takes as an excuse to freeze arms deliveries to Ukraine (Hegseth just switched things off).

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I reckon an obvious caveat here, beyond the polite smiles and hand shakes, is whether anyone attending takes Elbridge Colby seriously given the whole "he's a buffoon" thing*.

politico.com

Pentagon excludes key allies from NATO meeting

Some of Europe’s biggest defense spenders — and U.S. allies — were not invited to a Pentagon-led meeting to discuss the alliance.

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Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy

Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Splitting NATO is just another objective shared by the Kremlin and the current US administration. www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

Screenshot from linked story about splitting NATO

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Ironically, Russia's many war crimes includes the repeated use of chemical weapons in Ukraine. What you're actually "witnessing" is Ukraine using technology instead of soldiers to save Ukrainian lives as part of its broader existential fight to survive.

reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE: Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukraine 'widespread', Dutch defence minister says

The intelligence findings on alleged Russian use of chloropicrin have not previously been reported.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

* Given the Russian forecast sees RUB 50tr military spending over 3 years with RUB 17.1tr in 2027, the Reuters headline could also have been “Russia plans significant, real terms reduction in military spending after 2027"😀

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

2 headlines highlighting the centrality of economic data to Russia’s info war, Reuters depicts an ever larger economic juggernaut*, the Kyiv Independent, not so much

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

As a voice that actually matters on this subject, you set a great example by taking the time to explain where and why you made a mistake, and thank you for doing so.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

US military official: Preposterous! Also US military official: Who we murdering in the Caribbean tonight boys? Also also US military official: You say racist, misogynist, ideological purge of the US military's senior ranks, I say career opportunities! Also also also US military official: "Iran"

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

"Trump supporters" couldn't care less, it's the folk cos-playing as sensible Republicans and the self-appointed adults in the room "centrists" in denial about actual American foreign policy, that are bothered (because it makes both their denialism that much harder to maintain).

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

See also e-cigarettes. Not as significant as the pill, but >3 million smokers switching ain't nothing. Plus the new vape tax/cash grab taking effect Oct 1st finally concludes Osborne's experiments with behavioural economics.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Given America keeps bombing Iran, the Biden administration's response to Russia invading Ukraine was a much better argument for developing nuclear weapons.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

* The attached is a typical example of said expert bollocks. Note no one considered whether CIA bloke flew over to kiss the ring despite the surprise appearance, at America's invitation, of the Russian finance Minister at a G20 thing days before this podcast was published.

cfr.org

PODCAST | The President’s Inbox: The CIA Director’s Not-So-Secret Trip to Moscow | Council on Foreign Relations

This episode unpacks the potential purposes and implications of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent surprise trip to Moscow.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Even going so far as to tell Britain's Prime Minister to mind what he says about the war-criming bastards

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

All those (mostly American) security and international relations experts who rabbitted on about the CIA bloke's surprise trip to Moscow being so he could have stern words with Putin about this, that and/or the other, when instead the US is on a sustained campaign to normalize Russia *

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

"Donald Trump – during a press conference at the UN with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – said that Keir Starmer’s rhetoric had been “too tough” towards Moscow and that London “needs to be a little bit careful”. Downing Street pushed back on the US president’s remarks"

theguardian.com

New UK agency to fight ‘information warfare’ from likes of Russia, Burnham tells UN

PM aims to ‘stem poisonous tide’ of disinformation and deepfakes with National Centre for Information Defence

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

It's noticeable that Russian bank liquidity is being discussed publicly. While "uneven distribution" is referenced, you'd expect every bank to participate in repo auctions to avoid any one appearing weak. Also, jings!

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

An irony here is that opposition to data centres could prevent/limit the oversupply, that would destroy the residual values this article notes are now being guaranteed to secure cheap loans.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

TBF, institutionally, Edinburgh University has traditionally viewed itself as being more European than Scottish. My own experience, as a teaching assistant on an Edinburgh masters marketed aggressively at N. American students, was "Scottishness" was merely a cash cow to milk wherever possible.

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

deducted from profits as an impairment expense. MKB was reporting loans as being lower risk than they were until the Central Bank intervened. The reclassification of the corporate book saw a big hike in its ECL allowance, which prompted a one off payment to the bank (see its Dec 25 accounts)

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

reporting losses are recognised in advance in the P&L via the ECL allowance, not after final losses are fully incurred. The process is driven by how loans are classified. ECL allowances essentially start being made as the classification of a loan deteriorates with the net change in the ECL allowance

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Distressed loans are those a bank knows they're going to lose money on, not how much they're going to lose. The amount they expect to lose varies and is the ECL (Expected Credit Loss), which in simple terms is a % of the distressed loans (there are more detailed calculations). As this is IFRS

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Helpful analysis. Documents a clear balloon squeezing effect with the shadow fleet becoming an ever larger and more institutionalised "parallel trading system". But, the author mostly presents this as a single West vs the Rest despite the significant policy differences between the US and EU/UK

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

They need to employ more retired Chief Constables as special advisors and consultants (worked a charm with the NHS).

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

And the Q2 press release here was a bit of a piss take - "never mind what's happening to the corporate loan book, check the net interest margin, and we're doing more mortgages" * * Summary produced using Halfbrick GPT

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Nae bother, here's both. MKB as at 30/6/25 Loans to corporate clients at amortised cost 2,436,458 million RUB Loans to individual clients at amortised cost 224,090 million RUB (of which 217 139/97% not past due)

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