iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Owners don't appeal undervaluations. So if the county or BOER grant them, they tend not to be challenged. That does not make such undervaluations legally mandatory or defensible. Again, we do not yet know whether undervaluations were systematically granted, but neither can we rule it out.

000

The PTC allows newly-delivered apartments to receive cost valuations when there is a lack of comparables. Meanwhile, income-based appraisals of new apartments must be valued as if stabilized, even if they are still in lease-up.

000

Without the BOER minutes and records the INDY has requested, we don't know yet whether properties were valued as stabilized based on typical vacancy for comparable properties (as opposed to granted their actual vacancy, regardless of whether it reflects the market, as implied by Doyle's statements).

100

The cost approach is based on estimating the cost of reproducing a similar property. The sales approach is based on sales of comparable properties. Only the income approach accounts for occupancy. So, a cost or sales-based valuation is neither stabilized nor unstabilized.

100

That's right: my point is that it was reasonable to adjust the state's projection, but that the adjustment (predicting 7,500) revised it too far down. But, had they projected 10,533 appeals, it would not have fixed it because the math would then project a $2.2b reduction --only half the actual $4.4b

100

Property Tax Commission precedent requires virtually all properties to be valued as stabilized --what counts as stabilized depends on the vacancy rate for comparable properties in the market.

100

If the state's appeal math had been used on the real number of appeals (10,533), it would have projected a $2.2 billion reduction, or just half the actual $4.4 billion reduction. Both number of appeals and the $ amount of reduction were underestimated.

000

In reality, just 5% of homeowners appealed, while 25% of commercial owners did —and commercial owners were 20-40% more likely to receive reductions.

100

In theory, if every homeowner who was overvalued appealed and received an appropriate reduction, and so, too did every commercial owner, the success rate for single family would be a) higher than commercial and b) they’d receive reductions closer to the proportion of their tax burden.

000

For single family homes, it moved from 99% in Q1 2025 (~600 sales), to 104% in Q1 2026 (~500 sales) —meaning they are overvalued. For the lowest valued homes, the median is now 108% (~125 sales) —even more overvalued.

000

The median sale ratio for commercial properties sold post-2025 reval until now is 89% (167 sales) —meaning they are undervalued.

000

In 2019, the state’s appeal projection was 9,000, and the actual number submitted was ~7,000. Given the % increase in value compared to the last revaluation was higher in 2025 than in 2019, 10,533 is exactly the # you’d expect assuming the state’s math was similarly off in 2025.

100

Brighton McConnell @brmcc.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Hi Micah, I did the analyses for this article: Apartments are initially valued using a cost- and sales approach. If they appeal for an income-based valuation, they receive a vacancy deduction based on market data from comparable properties. At no point are apartments valued as though 100% occupied.

100

Reposted by Lee Gans

Some truly remarkable and important reporting from Lena. This side of budgeting simply isn't the easiest to explain, but she breaks it down very well. Great visuals help explain the issue as well. As a Durham resident, this is...uh...very concerning to me.

172

Reposted by Lee Gans

Charlie Reece ✅ @charliereece.com · 12/06/2026

Some fantastic reporting and analysis by Lena Geller (@writingthings.bsky.social) and Lee Gans (@grumblefish.bsky.social) on a very troubling trend in these property tax appeals cases. It’s worth your time to read this! 😡😡😡

4177

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

$53 million in value reductions went to apartments that qualified for the Blue Ridge exemption, which equates to a $138k reduction in their tax bills. But, most apartments that qualify for Blue Ridge did not end up appealing. So, that doesn't include most revenue losses from the exemption.

120

Reposted by Lee Gans

Dave Rogers @drogersenergy.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

This is a small example, compared to how corporations are screwing over the public globally, but some incredible reporting by @indyweek.bsky.social on how corporate property owners are avoiding taxes at the expense of the rest of us in Durham. indyweek.com/news/durham-...

indyweek.com

How $4 Billion Came Off Durham’s Tax Rolls Last Year, Mostly Benefiting Corporate Landlords—and Blowing a Hole in the City Budget

Landlords and national companies won billions in property tax reductions. City leadership, banking on the revenue, didn’t know until April.

11010

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

So proud of the work I did with @writingthings.bsky.social to produce this reporting!

062

Reposted by Lee Gans

Lena Geller @writingthings.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Much of what we found does not line up with how the tax office has explained the budget deficit. We also found that the tax office didn't telegraph the scale of the cuts until April—well into budget season, forcing city leaders to eliminate jobs and freeze raises to close the gap.

061

Reposted by Lee Gans

Lena Geller @writingthings.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

I've spent weeks working with @grumplefish.bsky.social to figure out how $4 billion came off Durham's tax rolls and blew a hole in the city's budget. The gist: in a murky saga, a county board handed corporations tax cuts left & right while the burden stayed on the shoulders of ordinary residents.

indyweek.com

How $4 Billion Came Off Durham’s Tax Rolls Last Year, Mostly Benefiting Corporate Landlords—and Blowing a Hole in the City Budget

Landlords and national companies won billions in property tax reductions. City leadership, banking on the revenue, didn’t know until April.

2184

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

Tell Rep. Cunningham (NC HD 106) we stand with immigrants in Charlotte. Comment form: www.carlacunninghamnchouse.com/contact-8 Twitter: x.com/CunninghamNC... Instagram: www.instagram.com/carladcunnin... If she blocks you, let her know that's illegal: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

x.com

Carla Cunningham (@CunninghamNCRep) / X

020

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

Charlotte NC House Rep. Carla Cunningham's office seems to be spending more time silencing critics on social media than on protecting her constituents from violence committed by ICE/CBP. open.substack.com/pub/leegans/...

Charlotte Rep. Carla Cunningham is violating my First Amendment rights

The extreme, MAGA Democrat representing NC House District 106 is illegally censoring her critics on social media. Meanwhile, CBP is terrorizing families in Charlotte.

010

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Remember y'all, this is every single Republican policy: www.youtube.com/watch?v=yX92...

youtube.com

Mr. Show: The Devastator

YouTube video by Better Call Bob!

010

Reposted by Lee Gans

Indivisible Asheville/WNC @indivisibleavl.bsky.social · 08/08/2025

Dem reps Carla Cunningham and Shelly Willingham voted with Republicans in the State Legislature to overturn a veto of SB 266, which allows Duke to raise rates for plants that haven't been built. They are two of Duke's top campaign fund recipients in the entire state. substack.com/home/post/p-...

132

Reposted by Lee Gans

Young Democrats of North Carolina @ydnc.org · 01/08/2025

YDNC condemns Rep. Carla Cunningham’s hateful, anti-immigrant remarks. “To Rep. Cunningham: Your override vote was shameful. Your words were abhorrent. And you will be held accountable by your community.” See our statement. ⬇️

This week, following her vote to override Governor Stein’s veto of anti-immigrant legislation, Rep. Carla Cunningham disgraced her office with a hate-filled speech attacking the very immigrant communities she was elected to serve.
To say “all cultures are not equal” is completely disqualifying and has no place in our party.
Immigration is an unqualified good. Diversity is an unqualified good. These are the very ideals our nation is founded on: that people from every background can come here with nothing and build something beautiful.
At our country’s main port of entry, the Statue of Liberty bears our promise to the world. She doesn’t declare that some cultures are less equal than others. She doesn’t fearmonger about assimilation or a conveyor belt.
Lady Liberty—the United States of America—declares just this:

“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

We are better because of the immigrant communities who call our country, state, and cities home.
Rep. Cunningham’s constituents deserve better than a representative who rejects this ideal and dehumanizes their neighbors on the House floor.
To Rep. Cunningham:
Your override vote was shameful.
Your words were abhorrent.
And you will be held accountable by your community.

Good luck.

1132

Carla Cunningham's politics have no place in Charlotte

Some constituents informed me Carla Cunningham claimed "everyone is getting PAC money from Duke Energy" at her town hall. If she said that, it's not true: leegans.substack.com/p/lets-keep-...

leegans.substack.com

She doesn't represent the city's politics —and she might not even live there

000

Do you know Democrats who need to be primaried? Republicans in swing districts? Tell me who they are. I’m a political data analyst and I’m taking requests for races to model. open.substack.com/pub/leegans/...

Send me requests: Do you know Democrats who need to be primaried? Republicans in swing districts?

I do. Tell me who yours are. Let's kick them out of office together.

010

Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

More proof calls to primary Carla Cunningham (D) in NC House District 106 are, in fact, 'organic', booed by her own constituents: www.instagram.com/reel/DNfrMJO...

instagram.com

000

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

Does Carla Cunningham even LIVE in her district? Carla Cunningham is the Democratic NC House Rep. for District 106 in Charlotte. She’s always overriding @ncgovernor.bsky.social 's vetos. She owns this $750k AirBnB in Stanly County. Is this her full-time job? leegans.substack.com/p/lets-keep-...

110

Charlotte NC: Here's a realistic path for defeating Carla "All Cultures Are Not Equal" Cunningham in House District 106 open.substack.com/pub/leegans/...

Let’s keep Duke Energy Democrats out of power in North Carolina: Part II

Duke Energy shill, Carla Cunningham, believes "All cultures are not equal"

300

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 17/08/2025

@abreezeclayton.bsky.social @ncnewsline.com I'm a political data analyst and I modeled what it will take to defeat the Veto Overriders in the NC House of Representatives. Here's proof that progressives can win even in rural communities in the South: open.substack.com/pub/leegans/...

Do you know Democrats who need to be primaried? Republicans in swing districts?

I do. Tell me who yours are. Let's kick them out of office together.

100

Lee Gans @grumplefish.bsky.social · 17/08/2025