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Greg Shill

@gregshill.com

9.7K followers 913 following 3K posts

Professor of Law at Arizona State University • Student of firms, cities & transportation (and Seinfeld) • Papers: ssrn.com/author=887547 • Newsletter: gregshill.substack.com • Cohost, Densely Speaking podcast www.denselyspeaking.com • gregshill.com

Posts Replies Media

Reposted by Greg Shill

George Pearkes @peark.es · 15h

I really wish people would stop trying to convince me that their catastrophism should be reflected by financial markets that clearly don't see it the same way.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 21h

It’s 2015 on the left. bsky.app/profile/ther...

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 29/09/2026

They did the cartoon!

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 29/09/2026

Stuff like this needs to come with a warning label for normies.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 29/09/2026

MacGyver

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 29/09/2026

Happy to chat if helpful. I also wrote a bite-size summary of the article. corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2023/10/16/t...

corpgov.law.harvard.edu

The Social Costs (and Benefits) of Dual-Class Stock

Dual-class stock structures allow founders to sell equity in their company without giving up control. These devices accomplish this by creating one class ...

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 29/09/2026

In a word, no, there’s no legal bar to using dual-class structures. The lack of manager accountability has always been presented as a private risk/reward question for investors. I felt like it was a risk (and also potentially a benefit) for society so that is what motivated the article.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 29/09/2026

Dual-class stock structures are most closely associated with tech companies today (specifically, those that have come public since 2004). Used to be mainly media companies. They are over 100 years old. I have a potted history in these screenshots from this article. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 28/09/2026

Water is an example of something that's done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 28/09/2026

Notably, travel times also did not increase outside the congestion zone. This mirrors what we have seen in other aggregate congestion pricing impacts. For example, it was predicted that drivers would change their routes to avoid the zone, creating new congestion; this, too, did not happen.

Reposted by Greg Shill

Jake Anbinder @jakeanbinder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Richard Scarry predicted this

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 26/09/2026

Water taxis. bsky.app/profile/weir...

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 26/09/2026

I just dodge them!

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 26/09/2026

Funiculars.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 26/09/2026

Maybe the next AI model will be able to get my printer to reliably connect to my computer.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 26/09/2026

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 26/09/2026

You’ll have the best time. The Museum of London has been redone; I loved it before and am eager to see it refreshed. This place is delicious and always fun; reservations or going off-peak recommended. www.tayyabs.co.uk

Tayyabs Restaurant

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Not giving advice, but “avoid” is what I would follow as a low-effort investor rather than “buy and hold” when it comes to bond funds. (Or I’d buy the actual bonds, but if we are talking workplace accounts that’s hard.) Time horizon, risk tolerance factors here in addition to level of engagement.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Point taken about the level of work and attention that a typical investor wants to put into it. That’s why I think the flaws in bond fund structure are so consequential: they’re the default choice of tens of millions. Rise of target date has intensified this.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

(The yield curve)

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Somebody laddering would, IMO, rationally adjust average duration based on rates, not only cash needs.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

One reason is that if you are laddering you would likely adjust your ladder’s average maturity over time. A bond fund with a mandate to own intermediate-term debt cannot do that.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Yes.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Concentration is by and large much higher in other major equity markets.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

You could do an actively managed bond fund. (Why not throw on some leverage too.) This is all fine but it’s getting away from the stated purpose of the fixed income component of the portfolio. Which was designed for bonds, not funds.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

The value of the aphorism really is in equity (specifically index) investments, IMO. You could apply it to laddering. Bond funds are different.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Overspending on infrastructure is not producing useful public goods. Public choice’s problem as a theory, historically, is that it seemed the exponents often were skeptical of public goods. But there’s a natural symbiosis between wanting public goods and wanting those goods to be *good*.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Private opulence, public squalor: Galbraith (1958), calling for more investment in public goods $1B a mile to extend a metro line to a sparsely-populated area and surrounding the terminal station with a parking lot: exemplary of 2026 transit planning

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

When rates seem like they’re going to drop (which is when I would want to buy bond funds), bond fund prices will rise. Meanwhile, equity fund prices may be dropping because of the fundamental reasons for the rate drop. Underscores the distinct nature of fixed income vs. equity funds IMO.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Trying to automate this via a standing rebalance instruction might backfire, to your point about 401k investor behavior.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Consider: A: accumulate into medium-duration bond fund every paycheck. B: same for MMF, but switch to bond fund once rates begin falling. B can outperform. It probably would have in the window above. Some hinges on how far in advance the rate drop is anticipated. B also offers optionality.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

That’s too general for fixed income for my taste. I wouldn’t just apply the same buy and hold principles from equity index funds to bond funds.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

OMONIA (only my opinions, not investment advice) (just coined it but quite like it)

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Ultrashort funds are rare in 401k menus in my experience. One explanation: investment advice is often a generation behind market structure changes. Another is that 401k investors often have cash, ie MMF, options, so ultrashorts don’t add much. But savers don’t really want to allocate to “cash.” 🤷‍♂️

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

The nice thing about something like a MMF relative to a bond fund, though, is lower opportunity cost. To me a bond fund becomes attractive if rates change trajectory to falling. In that scenario, MMF rates drop and you’d naturally be looking for alternatives.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Added an ultrashort bond fund (BUBIX) to the comparison to underscore the role of duration risk. Even though average yields in BND are almost certainly higher throughout the comparison window, the medium-term fund can’t beat its ultrashort duration peer because the fund prices drop when rates rise.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

What’s the point of a nutritional comparison of movie theater popcorn without butter? You could argue it’s the same popcorn with butter, or you could argue it’s spinach at home.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

In fundamental terms, yes. But the modern bond fund doesn’t exist to serve fundamental investment purposes. It’s a creature of the 401k, which creates a need for a liquid vehicle into which tens of millions of people contribute a chunk of their pay every two weeks.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

I chose that starting date because it is close enough to be relatable but includes multiple monetary and fiscal regimes and business cycles. You can play around with dates, funds, inflation adjustment, etc. to your heart’s content here. totalrealreturns.como

totalrealreturns.com

Inflation & Dividend-Adjusted Stock Charts | Total Real Returns

Dividend-reinvested, inflation-adjusted stock charts.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Here’s a total return chart for the biggest bond fund vs. a leading S&P 500 ETF since 2020, with all dividends reinvested. Equities outperforming is the dramatic difference, but don’t sleep on the bond fund having terrible absolute returns (negative, on a real basis).

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 24/09/2026

Aeroplanes.

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Reposted by Greg Shill

Thomas Bamonte @thomasbamonte.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Even though the Pennsylvania legislature did not pass a long-term solution to the transit fiscal cliff faced by PA transit service providers (unlike the ILGA passing the NITA Act for IL transit providers), SEPTA has released its Accelerate Plan to modernize service. wwww.septa.org/news/acceler...

Accelerate: SEPTA Announces Best-in-Class Vision for the Authority & Region – Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority

Reposted by Greg Shill

Star:Line Chicago @starlinechicago.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Someone smarter than me first said it but the paradox of American urban expressways is that they can only be repaired: the political costs of removal are too high but the financial costs of replacement (after a catastrophic closure, e.g. Embarcadero after Loma Prieta) are also too high

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 23/09/2026

I love it, but it is very aughts in a way that some other greats of the era are not. May explain why the youths aren’t into it.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 23/09/2026

It’s a great list, though I’d say its Development is a little Arrested.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 22/09/2026

Life in Milwaukee moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 22/09/2026

Fake news! (Indiana has not required front tags for 70 years.)

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 22/09/2026

Just need to subsidize demand meme

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 22/09/2026

It’s less a day than a state of mind (I am not traveling).

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 22/09/2026

Ferries.