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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Or, to use an earlier move as additional leverage for some enduring position trump may not otherwise be willing to give

Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Are the midterms in USA not a factor? Iran may well see quite different and better future where dems take house and senate, so war powers agreements become a serious hassle for trump etc., vs. one where they don't. So, it might be in their interest to just wait it out for a few weeks

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

An alternative view - it's the propensity of ill informed with strong views to vote, when a big wedge of the rational people just don't. Compulsory voting seems so sensible.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

He is loathsome, but I would have thought he is far far from the worst humans alive. BUT he has been put in a far far more impactful position AND then many constraints removed. This is primarily on the electorate and their elected representatives (which is also on the electorate).

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

This seems a material limitation, even if it exposes the analysis to chaos transition situations that makes it inherently a very weak forecast ... And even if the end state is stable the timing being within a decade feels very exposed to that. In short, it's spuriously precise.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Pedant mode - it's not this governments first budget. It's this first for this chancellor/ PM

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

I have to believe Russia / China can count munition launches via satellite, and Iran can estimate based on knowing the response profile. So they all KNOW the position relatively well.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

(* dominant for most inference assumes that interconnect delays mean large scale use, e.g. model training, needs to remain in very large terrestrial datacentres ... but that leaves the bulk of capacity very much in play)

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I would hope for national self interest regulation on this kind of concentration risk, even if the effect is to make this a side-show in capacity terms, meaning terrestrial solutions are needed.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Could be via a bad actor e.g. the real Russian/Chinese tests, or failure or cyber-attack on the constellation control. The effect could be to degrade everything at that altitude which could be a very large percentage of world capacity - an AI straits of Hormuz.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

If Orbital AI becomes dominant for most inference*, and is not prevented from scaling to 10's of % of AI compute, and AI becomes deeply embedded into orgs, then I would have thought we have a serious risk issue of Kessler events (collision trigger an unstoppable, chain reaction of more collisions).

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

That need more than. One heart. Bravo.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

I thought the courts had said there WAS NO settlement, and parties were legally bound to not call anything related by that term. So 'both parties' is moot. And Blanche should know this or does know this - incompetence? Duplicity? Both?

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Meanwhile, keep your eye on the ball. It is running quietly along the ground to the sound of the clock on non-Chinese petroleum reserves and November mid terms. Tick-tock.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Importantly, the list is used bottom to top, and with snakes and ladders rules from time to time to pep up the market positions being taken

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

I know not was the chart title rather than your post, but surely the vastly different debt to gdp (64% vs. 94%) has a big impact. I know that is a wrapped part of risk, but if it explained the vast bulk of the delta then it feels worth being more specific

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Maybe mute them by balance of upvotes or down votes from your circle of followed people? Either for the reader or the poster (or some hybrid)

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

What drives the choice of vertical axis scaling here? 68 to 74 is clearly an increase, even if the 'pricing in' means it is lower than it might be. Why not go from zero to a little more than the max seen in this crisis so far? Or maybe minimum seen in the last 12 months rather than zero.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Fertiliser costs might well plummet, as the demand for this growing season has gone by. The resultant food cost rises, however ...

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

This is in 'stubbed toes cause retrospective swinging doors' class nonsense.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Surely we can do more than one thing, especially the rare things with 4%+ GDP impact in near to medium term. We should push ahead on rejoin or maybe re-form with Canada, Ukraine etc. AND do other things too. Create some buzz on things that are real, not flag waving nonsense

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

I'm missed it the first time, but love it and agree that either of them saying it would be good. I'd also love to find a way to force the 'simple solutions to complex problems' brigade to show their working, and in the process admit they are often incompetent, or lying, or both.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Sign. One set of parties who say what they know to be untrue, and another who won't say what they know to be true.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Graphs that start at zero please. So volatility and level of rise has context

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

We are going to have the distraction anyway, and roll some dice, so enough with trying to fudge it to placate intransigent Faragists, lets have a real, positive, discussion of where we are going, not just who sits on top of the fudges.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Bond markets would like it, at least vs. a leadership distraction, and probably in absolute terms as at least 4% of the GDP loss is recoverable (the trade loss part) ... And 4% is HUGE in productivity terms vs. other near term options.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

And, it's not the same world it was, improving that case further, and pointing to why adding places like Canada and Ukraine would be worth while. Call it the middle powers pact or something.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Well over half of voters now think Brexit was a mistake, and at 4-8% impact on GDP and negative movement on everything else that was given as a reason, like immigration, it's easy to see why.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

UK appears about to have a distracting political context for ages, after which there will likely be more radical change of one sort or another. And Damoclesian high bond prices hover over it all. Why not just cut to a plan to rejoin and help reshape Europe / middle powers?

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

And humans (and all living things) are very complex systems, there is nothing bad about that. One such complex class of systems existing doesn't diminish another, either existing now or that might exist in the future

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Why 'ultra-rationalism'? It's hard to have a rational basis for believing in a specific god, or indeed any god as they are commonly described. The 'ultra' feels pejorative here.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Air can be scrubbed of CO2 and oxygen injected for a long long time. Same way it is in modern subs.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

You can be both. Logical and analytical on the situation, and simultaneously furious. I know rationally what happens if I bash my thumb with a hammer. I know what to do better next time. And am possibly literally spitting tacks level furious

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

It is fascinating and thought provoking.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Do you think Trump knows we all know he lies much of the time?

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

How will they ever know their system and service is so poor? They have no effective feedback model. I think Evri et al. are a wee bit better than they were, but the real story is just how poor Amazon now is.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Once upon a time Amazon delivery was a step-change better than everyone else (Evri, Yodel, ...). But, my goodness it has degraded. Now, parcels are mostly just chucked behind our garden gate, and flagged as 'handed to resident'. And Amazon customer service don't care as long as it turns up.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Suspect he wants others to be visible involved. Like a coalition ... though of course he goes for threats afterwards, not persuasion before, which reduces efficacy and had second order consequences that pile up to almost first order levels

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

But, in a through the looking glass moment, I wonder if he is NOT conflicted as he has no formal government role. That brings other issues of course, legal ones. Or it should do.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

Worse, it can give them a feeling of competence vs. historic capabilities that allows them to drag us into Dunning Kruger chasms

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

Surely this is Photoshop? Surely?

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Nominated, surely, not named, no matter what trump says. Needs Congress approval

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Does he not need to be supported by Congress?

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

That doesn't sound like it would breach the rules that Anthropic were concerned about (it's an interceptor launched at specific non-human target faf far away from humans), nor a situation applicable to an LLM (too slow, utterly clear 'human in the loop' case)

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Well, he can't message Epstein any more, so journalists will have to do

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

There is probably global upside for anthropic if they hold fast on his. Both directly re. Trust AND second order for standing up to Trump strong arming.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

This was a superb episode. Like some others of Ezra's best, I wasn't sure I could be bothered to listen to that as it sounded a bit glib from title alone. But he has more than earned the benefit of the doubt, and he added more to that tally.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Reform. This is not three days old fish that is starting to smell, it's fish stew - a whole new thing

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

@scaramucci.bsky.social I think you are wrong on not funding government. Not because it risks the dollar, but because the dollar risk is already taken and more will be taken if not impeded. It needs a sharp shock to drive sharp policy reversal, not a slow boil.

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Greg Pye @gregpye.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

Restore implies it can be. USA has had a massive role, I think it will come back closer to a mean of ' big but not dominant'. And that deleverage of USA by others will get bigger and bigger even as some trust gets brought back. Fool me once, shame of you etc.

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