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Gregory Daco

@gregdaco.bsky.social
47K followers 308 following 2.2K posts

Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon President @National Association for Business Economics Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit Judo Black Belt Football player & @ManCity Once-a-year triathlete Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
🚨Income erosion We've long established the labor market is non-inflationary, but with real wage growth having been negative for the last 6-months that represents a cap on consumer spending growth
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
👎 Sep '26 #Jobsreport: "Un goût de trop peu" 🔶Payrolls +29k ✅Private +46k ✅Gds +18k 🔶Services +28k 🔻Gov -17k 🔻Diffusion: 49% 🔻Revisions Jul/Aug -60k 🔺 #Unemployment rate: 4.2% (+0.1pt) ✅ Participation rate: 61.8% (+0.2pt) 📉Wages ✅+0.1% m/m ⚠️3.0% y/y (-0.1pt)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
A selloff in global debt has fueled a rout that’s hitting harder & faster in #France than anyone expected Nerves are fraying about missed deficit targets, policy gridlock & presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
💶 Eurozone #inflation shot up to a 3-yr high of 3.8% y/y in September on rising oil and gas prices from escalating Middle East conflict, with energy inflation jumping to 18.8%. Core inflation only firmed 0.1pt to 2.5%. ➡️High odds of another ECB rate hike before year-end www.ft.com/content/6394...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
US #Manufacturing sentiment grows at slower pace: "cautious optimism," adaptability & growing inflation concerns ✅ @ISM Manufacturing 54.5 (🔻0.1pt) ✅New Orders 55.3 (⬆️1.6pt) ✅Production 56.7 (🔻1.6pt) ✅Employment 52.7 (⬆️1.5pt) ✅Backlogs 56.4 (⬆️4.6pt) 🔥Inflation 77.9 (🔺6.8pt)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
💡Layoff announcements justifications, so far in 2026: 1️⃣ AI: 21% 2️⃣ Market and Economic Conditions: 20% 3️⃣ Closings: 17% 4️⃣ Restructuring: 14% 5️⃣ Contract Loss: 8% 6️⃣ Cost-cutting: 7%
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
📉Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 43k #job cut announcements in September ✅-18% m/m ✅-20% y/y ✅Lowest September since 2022 ✅Year-to-date: 573k announced layoffs: -40% y/y ⚠️Most-cited layoff announcement reason: #AI (21%) ⏳Companies in wait-&-see mode with cautious hiring
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Private-sector AI-spending contributing to half of GDP growth since start of 2025
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Inflation in Europe’s top economies jumped to the highest level in years following the latest upswing in energy markets, focusing attention on what the European Central Bank will do next to tame prices. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Fed’s Watchdog Finds No Misconduct or Illegal Activity in Costly Renovations www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/b...
nytimes.com
Fed’s Watchdog Finds No Misconduct or Illegal Activity in Costly Renovations
A new report by the Federal Reserve’s independent inspector general concluded that a nearly $2.5 billion construction project was poorly managed but made no referrals to the U.S. attorney general.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The latest NIPA revisions indicate stronger real #GDP growth in 2025 -- implying slightly less productivity growth last year -- but US economic momentum as of mid-2026 is more or less unchanged at 2.2% y/y
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Healthy upward US GDP revisions on strong private demand Real #GDP in Q2 2026 ✅+2.2% q/q ✅+2.2% y/y 🛒Consumer +3.8% 👩‍💻Biz invest +9%: AI-led 🏘️Resid invest 2.8% (1st gain since '24) 📦Trade -1.1pt: imports⤴️ 🏗️Inventories -0.5pt 🏦Gov -0.1% 📈#Inflation 🔺PCE 3.6% y/y 🔺Core 3.1% y/y
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Interesting question for the #Fed, core PCE was just below the cusp tolerable monthly readings in August, core PCE #inflation now 0.4pt closer to the 2% target, & monetary policy effectively 65bps tighter... Do you revise you priors ahead of upcoming #FOMC meetings?
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
🚨 The BEA NIPA revisions show much lower headline PCE inflation (-0.3pt) & core inflation (-0.4pt) 📆August 2026 ✅Headline PCE: +0.3% m/m ✅Core PCE: +0.2% m/m (⚠️+0.247%) 🎯Inflation above #Fed 2% target ↔️Headline PCE inflation: 3.4% (flat) ↔️Core PCE inflation: 3.0% (flat)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The NIPA revisions show mildly more household savings on modestly firmer income momentum, but the trends don't lie... Real income growth and savings continue to fall, thereby capping consumer spending capacity.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The income erosion is real, but it's not yet biting While real consumer spending has been outpacing real disposable income for the last 2 years, consumers have leveraged wealth, savings & credit to fill the gap. These are not infinite resources...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
💥Strong, but not sustainable consumer spending in August 🛒Consumer spending +0.9% ✅Inflation-adj +0.6% 💵Disposable income +0.3% 🔶Inflation-adj +0% 🏦Savings rate: 4.1% (-0.5pt) 📈PCE #inflation ↔️Headline inflation: 3.4% (flat) ↔️Core inflation: 3.0% (flat)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
How does one reconcile this with the latest PortWatch/IMF data. I struggle to believe it's all dark flows... portwatch.imf.org/pages/cc317b...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
👀"Shipments of crude oil have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while flows of products such as diesel and gasoline were at 3 million barrels a day, or 58%, according to JPMorgan." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says
Crude oil flows from the Middle East are returning toward pre-war levels despite continued risks to shipping, according to separate estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
US 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2002 ft.com/content/c869...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In latest speech, @newyorkfed.org President Williams pushes back against an October rate hike ("no need for urgency") but signals a likely 25bps #Fed rate hike in December ("one further upward adjustment" in fed funds rate "may be appropriate") www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/s...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
🛢️The US ordered another release of #oil from emergency reserves — and urged European nations to do likewise. The US will offer up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Fed Governor Barr: “Further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion. We want to support sustainable, durable growth in support of maximum employment, and price stability is crucial to that.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Fed’s Barr Says More Hikes Likely Needed as Growth Picks Up
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr on Tuesday repeated a warning that further interest-rate increases will likely be needed to slow inflation.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
🚨US consumer confidence fell across all age groups, income levels and political affiliation to lowest level since 2014 on growing pessimism about inflation, economy & labor market The Conference Board: 🔻Confidence: -6.7pt in September 🔻Present situation: -7.9pt 🔻Expectations: -5.9pt
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
📈Labor flow indicators remain at a decade-low ⬆️Hiring rate: 3.3% (+0.1pt) 🆚 4.3% pre-Covid ↔️Quits rate: 1.9% (flat) 🆚 2.6% ⬇️Openings rate: 4.3% (-0.1) 🆚 4.5%
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
August #JOLTS: Robust but stagnant labor market with extremely selective hiring, low quits & still low layoffs 🔻Job openings: 7.1mn (-256k) 🔼Hiring: 5.2mn (+46k): near post-Covid low 🔻Quits: 3.1mn (-23k): near post-Covid low ✅ Layoffs: 1.6mn (-61k)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
⚖️ Central banking in a world of frequent supply shocks The challenge is to recognize when an initial price increase risks becoming a broader inflation process, while being candid about the economic costs of responding. www.linkedin.com/pulse/centra...
linkedin.com
Central banking in a world of frequent supply shocks
Hello friends, Last month, I focused on how demographics are steadily reshaping the outlook for economic growth, labor markets, consumer demand, public finances and business strategy. This month, I wa...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The president’s advisers said fiscal restraint and deregulation would bring down prices and borrowing costs. Then came tariffs, war and an investment boom. www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Great start to the Nations League 🇧🇪
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🔥#Inflation expectations rise to 4-month high 📈1-yr ahead: 4.6% (+0.6pt) ⚠️Up 1.2pt from pre-Middle East conflict 📈Next 5-yrs: 3.4% (+0.1pt)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
⛔️Consumer #sentiment falls to 4-month low in September ⚠️Higher inflation is weighing on personal finances and business conditions & expectations are dimmer, disproportionately amongst Republicans 🔻Sentiment -7% 🔻Current Conditions -1.9% 🔻Expectations -10.1%
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
📈Strong US capex trends... ....even when you adjust for inflation ▶️Led by AI-investment surge, but also visible across machinery, metals and transportation equipment
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The losses in the US Treasuries market intensified on Wednesday as robust US manufacturing and services activity, higher oil prices and a weak 5-year Treasury auction drove yields across most maturities to the highest levels in almost two decades. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
US mortgage rates rose to the highest level in more than 2 years, further weighing on a housing market already suppressed by elevated prices & sluggish sales The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage +15bps to 7.12% in week ended Sep 18 @MBAMortgage bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#Fed Gov Barr signals more policy tightening for timelier return to 2% "We needed to recalibrate monetary policy to reflect the balance of risks to our mandate goals... In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion"
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
🎙️ I joined #RadioDavos with Robin Pomeroy to discuss the latest #WEF Chief Economists Outlook, a regular pulse-check of the global economy, and weigh in on what I believe represent the new economics of capital... lnkd.in/p/g4NFn8pr
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Trump Says He’s Pushed for Fuel Export Ban Amid Price Crunch
President Donald Trump said he’s encouraged his advisers to approve a ban on diesel exports, as the price of the fuel skyrockets amid pressure from the wars in Iran and Ukraine.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
« Chinese and US officials wrapped up their second day of talks in New York on Monday to discuss artificial intelligence, investment and trade as they sought to advance negotiations ahead of President Xi Jinping’s visit to the US this week. » www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
China and US Discuss AI, Investment on Second Day of Trade Talks
Chinese and US officials wrapped up their second day of talks in New York on Monday to discuss artificial intelligence, investment and trade as they sought to advance negotiations ahead of President X...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Great game! Great win 🩵
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Saudi Aramco told at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will be allocated no crude next month under long-term agreements after the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked, people informed of the decision said. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Saudis Tell European Refiners They’ll Get No Crude Next Month
Saudi Aramco told at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will be allocated no crude next month under long-term agreements after the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked,...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🏭US Industrial #production stagnates in August 🟠+0% m/m ✅+1.4% y/y 🔻#Manufacturing -0.3% m/m & +0.9% y/y 🔻Durables -0.5%: broad-based 🟠Nondurables 0% ✅Mining 0.3% (oil& gas) ✅Utilities 1.8%
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"The yen extended its drop against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave mixed signals about future interest-rate hikes, falling short of markets’ hawkish expectations." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 31-year high, flags concerns over inflation Governor Ueda signaled more tightening: “important to stabilize the rate of price increases at a level ~2%... I believe the phase of policy has shifted to a new stage.”
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Reposted by Gregory Daco
David Gura @davidgura.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
President Trump, earlier today: “I talked to Kevin [Warsh], and I said, you might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter.”
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
👀GDP growth expectations revised higher less than unemployment pointing to less productivity growth and despite higher rates. 📊Real #GDP ▶️2.3% in Q4 '26 (was 2.2%) ▶️2.4% in Q4 '27 (was 2.3%) ▶️2.2% in Q4 '28 (flat) ▶️Long-run: 2.1% (flat)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
🚨Fed's core #inflation projections revised marginally higher despite tighter expected monetary policy expectations... 📉Core PCE ▶️3.4% in Q4 2026 (was 3.3%) ▶️2.5% in Q4 2027 (was 2.5%) ▶️2.2% in Q4 2028 (was 2.1%)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
🚨New #Fed dot plot: 1 *more* rate hike in 2026 ⚖️ 12 policymakers see one more hike, 4 see two more & only two see a hold 📊Median fed funds rate: ▶️2026: 4.1% (+0.3pt) ▶️2027: 4.1% (+0.5pt) ▶️2028: 3.9% (+0.5pt) ▶️Long-run: 3.2% (+0.1pt)
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
🚨 #Fed hikes as inflation patience runs out 1️⃣ #FOMC hikes 25bps to 3.75-4.00% 2️⃣ 12 votes in favor with no dissents 3️⃣Activity "solid" & inflation "elevated" but geopo "uncertainty" 4️⃣ "Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2%% goal"
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
With the #Fed decision around the corner, pay close attention to Warsh’s press conference. Relaying a sensible, transparent and honest assessment of economic conditions, risks to the outlook and #FOMC decision rationale matters more than the decision itself.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Strong, albeit more nuanced #retail picture when adjusted for prices ✅ Total 0.8% ✅ Core 1.3% 💻 Online 2.5% 👨‍🍳 Rest/bar 0.9% 🛋 Furn 0.8% ⚕️ Health 0.8% 👗 Cloth 0.7% 🛒 Groc 0.4% 🎮 Elec 0.2% 🚗 Auto -0.6% 🏬 Merch -0.8% ⚽ Sports -0.8% ⛽ Gas -0.8% 🏠 Build mat -0.9%
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