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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 15h

AI boom & trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook but gains to be uneven via @wto.org "Global trade proved more resilient than expected in H1 2026, but resilience was not uniform with services trade & some regions + exposed to effects of Middle East conflict" www.wto.org/english/news...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 17h

A lot of emphasis on dot plot and market pricing for 2 more #Fed rate hike, and Waller adds "The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time."

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 17h

#Fed Governor Waller signals his preference for 2 more rate hikes "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal. But there is some 'flexibility' about when those hikes will occur" t.co/6t6cUn2Ghm

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

US @newyorkfed.org 's short-term inflation expectations rose to highest since May of 2023 in September, but medium-term expectations still anchored. ➡️3.9%: 1-year-ahead (🔺0.3pt) ➡️3.3%: 3-year ahead (🔺0.1pt) ➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

⚠️US Mortgage Rates Jump to 7.49%, Highest Since 2023 🏘️Contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to highest point since November 2023, according to @MBAMortgage ⏫Up about 50bps over the past 3 weeks: the fastest increase since early 2023. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

US #Services sentiment falls on costs, costs, costs in September: fuel, tariffs, interest rates... ✅@ISM Services 54.9 (🔻0.5pt) ✅Activity 56.5 (🔻5.2pt) ✅New Orders 59.8 (🔻1.1pt) 🔶Employment 50.1 (🔼2.3pt) ✅Backlogs 56.6 (🔼1pt) 🔥Inflation 74 (🔺1.4pt & high since 2022)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A pullback in oil prices sent stocks to all-time highs, with Wall Street also buoyed by renewed enthusiasm about the artificial-intelligence trade that has powered the bull market. bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Great to be speaking at the 2026 EY Real Estate Conference in Miami alongside an outstanding group of industry leaders #EYREConference @eynews.bsky.social

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

🚨Income erosion We've long established the labor market is non-inflationary, but with real wage growth having been negative for the last 6-months that represents a cap on consumer spending growth

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

👎 Sep '26 #Jobsreport: "Un goût de trop peu" 🔶Payrolls +29k ✅Private +46k ✅Gds +18k 🔶Services +28k 🔻Gov -17k 🔻Diffusion: 49% 🔻Revisions Jul/Aug -60k 🔺 #Unemployment rate: 4.2% (+0.1pt) ✅ Participation rate: 61.8% (+0.2pt) 📉Wages ✅+0.1% m/m ⚠️3.0% y/y (-0.1pt)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A selloff in global debt has fueled a rout that’s hitting harder & faster in #France than anyone expected Nerves are fraying about missed deficit targets, policy gridlock & presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

💶 Eurozone #inflation shot up to a 3-yr high of 3.8% y/y in September on rising oil and gas prices from escalating Middle East conflict, with energy inflation jumping to 18.8%. Core inflation only firmed 0.1pt to 2.5%. ➡️High odds of another ECB rate hike before year-end www.ft.com/content/6394...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

US #Manufacturing sentiment grows at slower pace: "cautious optimism," adaptability & growing inflation concerns ✅ @ISM Manufacturing 54.5 (🔻0.1pt) ✅New Orders 55.3 (⬆️1.6pt) ✅Production 56.7 (🔻1.6pt) ✅Employment 52.7 (⬆️1.5pt) ✅Backlogs 56.4 (⬆️4.6pt) 🔥Inflation 77.9 (🔺6.8pt)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

💡Layoff announcements justifications, so far in 2026: 1️⃣ AI: 21% 2️⃣ Market and Economic Conditions: 20% 3️⃣ Closings: 17% 4️⃣ Restructuring: 14% 5️⃣ Contract Loss: 8% 6️⃣ Cost-cutting: 7%

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

📉Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 43k #job cut announcements in September ✅-18% m/m ✅-20% y/y ✅Lowest September since 2022 ✅Year-to-date: 573k announced layoffs: -40% y/y ⚠️Most-cited layoff announcement reason: #AI (21%) ⏳Companies in wait-&-see mode with cautious hiring

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Private-sector AI-spending contributing to half of GDP growth since start of 2025

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Inflation in Europe’s top economies jumped to the highest level in years following the latest upswing in energy markets, focusing attention on what the European Central Bank will do next to tame prices. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The latest NIPA revisions indicate stronger real #GDP growth in 2025 -- implying slightly less productivity growth last year -- but US economic momentum as of mid-2026 is more or less unchanged at 2.2% y/y

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Healthy upward US GDP revisions on strong private demand Real #GDP in Q2 2026 ✅+2.2% q/q ✅+2.2% y/y 🛒Consumer +3.8% 👩‍💻Biz invest +9%: AI-led 🏘️Resid invest 2.8% (1st gain since '24) 📦Trade -1.1pt: imports⤴️ 🏗️Inventories -0.5pt 🏦Gov -0.1% 📈#Inflation 🔺PCE 3.6% y/y 🔺Core 3.1% y/y

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Interesting question for the #Fed, core PCE was just below the cusp tolerable monthly readings in August, core PCE #inflation now 0.4pt closer to the 2% target, & monetary policy effectively 65bps tighter... Do you revise you priors ahead of upcoming #FOMC meetings?

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

🚨 The BEA NIPA revisions show much lower headline PCE inflation (-0.3pt) & core inflation (-0.4pt) 📆August 2026 ✅Headline PCE: +0.3% m/m ✅Core PCE: +0.2% m/m (⚠️+0.247%) 🎯Inflation above #Fed 2% target ↔️Headline PCE inflation: 3.4% (flat) ↔️Core PCE inflation: 3.0% (flat)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The NIPA revisions show mildly more household savings on modestly firmer income momentum, but the trends don't lie... Real income growth and savings continue to fall, thereby capping consumer spending capacity.

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The income erosion is real, but it's not yet biting While real consumer spending has been outpacing real disposable income for the last 2 years, consumers have leveraged wealth, savings & credit to fill the gap. These are not infinite resources...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

💥Strong, but not sustainable consumer spending in August 🛒Consumer spending +0.9% ✅Inflation-adj +0.6% 💵Disposable income +0.3% 🔶Inflation-adj +0% 🏦Savings rate: 4.1% (-0.5pt) 📈PCE #inflation ↔️Headline inflation: 3.4% (flat) ↔️Core inflation: 3.0% (flat)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

How does one reconcile this with the latest PortWatch/IMF data. I struggle to believe it's all dark flows... portwatch.imf.org/pages/cc317b...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

US 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2002 ft.com/content/c869...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

In latest speech, @newyorkfed.org President Williams pushes back against an October rate hike ("no need for urgency") but signals a likely 25bps #Fed rate hike in December ("one further upward adjustment" in fed funds rate "may be appropriate") www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/s...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

🛢️The US ordered another release of #oil from emergency reserves — and urged European nations to do likewise. The US will offer up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

🚨US consumer confidence fell across all age groups, income levels and political affiliation to lowest level since 2014 on growing pessimism about inflation, economy & labor market The Conference Board: 🔻Confidence: -6.7pt in September 🔻Present situation: -7.9pt 🔻Expectations: -5.9pt

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

📈Labor flow indicators remain at a decade-low ⬆️Hiring rate: 3.3% (+0.1pt) 🆚 4.3% pre-Covid ↔️Quits rate: 1.9% (flat) 🆚 2.6% ⬇️Openings rate: 4.3% (-0.1) 🆚 4.5%

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

August #JOLTS: Robust but stagnant labor market with extremely selective hiring, low quits & still low layoffs 🔻Job openings: 7.1mn (-256k) 🔼Hiring: 5.2mn (+46k): near post-Covid low 🔻Quits: 3.1mn (-23k): near post-Covid low ✅ Layoffs: 1.6mn (-61k)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The president’s advisers said fiscal restraint and deregulation would bring down prices and borrowing costs. Then came tariffs, war and an investment boom. www.wsj.com/economy/trum...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Great start to the Nations League 🇧🇪

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

🔥#Inflation expectations rise to 4-month high 📈1-yr ahead: 4.6% (+0.6pt) ⚠️Up 1.2pt from pre-Middle East conflict 📈Next 5-yrs: 3.4% (+0.1pt)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

⛔️Consumer #sentiment falls to 4-month low in September ⚠️Higher inflation is weighing on personal finances and business conditions & expectations are dimmer, disproportionately amongst Republicans 🔻Sentiment -7% 🔻Current Conditions -1.9% 🔻Expectations -10.1%

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

📈Strong US capex trends... ....even when you adjust for inflation ▶️Led by AI-investment surge, but also visible across machinery, metals and transportation equipment

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The losses in the US Treasuries market intensified on Wednesday as robust US manufacturing and services activity, higher oil prices and a weak 5-year Treasury auction drove yields across most maturities to the highest levels in almost two decades. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

US mortgage rates rose to the highest level in more than 2 years, further weighing on a housing market already suppressed by elevated prices & sluggish sales The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage +15bps to 7.12% in week ended Sep 18 @MBAMortgage bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

#Fed Gov Barr signals more policy tightening for timelier return to 2% "We needed to recalibrate monetary policy to reflect the balance of risks to our mandate goals... In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion"

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

🎙️ I joined #RadioDavos with Robin Pomeroy to discuss the latest #WEF Chief Economists Outlook, a regular pulse-check of the global economy, and weigh in on what I believe represent the new economics of capital... lnkd.in/p/g4NFn8pr

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

🏭US Industrial #production stagnates in August 🟠+0% m/m ✅+1.4% y/y 🔻#Manufacturing -0.3% m/m & +0.9% y/y 🔻Durables -0.5%: broad-based 🟠Nondurables 0% ✅Mining 0.3% (oil& gas) ✅Utilities 1.8%

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

"The yen extended its drop against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave mixed signals about future interest-rate hikes, falling short of markets’ hawkish expectations." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 31-year high, flags concerns over inflation Governor Ueda signaled more tightening: “important to stabilize the rate of price increases at a level ~2%... I believe the phase of policy has shifted to a new stage.”

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

👀GDP growth expectations revised higher less than unemployment pointing to less productivity growth and despite higher rates. 📊Real #GDP ▶️2.3% in Q4 '26 (was 2.2%) ▶️2.4% in Q4 '27 (was 2.3%) ▶️2.2% in Q4 '28 (flat) ▶️Long-run: 2.1% (flat)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

🚨Fed's core #inflation projections revised marginally higher despite tighter expected monetary policy expectations... 📉Core PCE ▶️3.4% in Q4 2026 (was 3.3%) ▶️2.5% in Q4 2027 (was 2.5%) ▶️2.2% in Q4 2028 (was 2.1%)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

🚨New #Fed dot plot: 1 *more* rate hike in 2026 ⚖️ 12 policymakers see one more hike, 4 see two more & only two see a hold 📊Median fed funds rate: ▶️2026: 4.1% (+0.3pt) ▶️2027: 4.1% (+0.5pt) ▶️2028: 3.9% (+0.5pt) ▶️Long-run: 3.2% (+0.1pt)

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

🚨 #Fed hikes as inflation patience runs out 1️⃣ #FOMC hikes 25bps to 3.75-4.00% 2️⃣ 12 votes in favor with no dissents 3️⃣Activity "solid" & inflation "elevated" but geopo "uncertainty" 4️⃣ "Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2%% goal"

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Strong, albeit more nuanced #retail picture when adjusted for prices ✅ Total 0.8% ✅ Core 1.3% 💻 Online 2.5% 👨‍🍳 Rest/bar 0.9% 🛋 Furn 0.8% ⚕️ Health 0.8% 👗 Cloth 0.7% 🛒 Groc 0.4% 🎮 Elec 0.2% 🚗 Auto -0.6% 🏬 Merch -0.8% ⚽ Sports -0.8% ⛽ Gas -0.8% 🏠 Build mat -0.9%

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

#Retail sales: Broad rebound ✅ Sales +1.2% ✅ Inflation-adj +0.8% ✅Core sales +1.4% ✅Volumes +1.3% ⛽ Gas 3.1% 💻 Online 2.6% 🎮 Elec 1.6% ⚽ Sports 1.2% 👨‍🍳 Rest/bar 1.2% 🛋 Furn 0.9% ⚕️ Health 0.9% 🏬 Merch 0.7% 👗 Cloth 0.7% 🚗 Auto 0.6% 🛒 Groc 0.4% 🏠 Build mat -0.2%

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

📊 What do the latest inflation and employment reports signal? And what does the Federal Reserve’s latest decision mean for you business, your finances and the economic outlook? 🎙️Look no further than @nabe_econ ECON-versations #podcast ! linktr.ee/nabe_econ

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