Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 32mFascinating UofT School of Cities project on the correlation between neighbourhood characteristics and mayoral vote over the last few decades. Looking at the strongest positive correlations for Olivia Chow voting areas in 2023 sure tells a tale. schoolofcities.github.io/place-and-po... 281
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 1hA couple of new polls — from Canada Pulse and Liaison — have been added to City Hall Watcher’s election projection section, and the result is… minimal change. projection.cityhallwatcher.com 191
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 21hMy @thestar.com column: Brad Bradford and Chris Alexander talk about Toronto's budget like it's some mystery we need outside experts to solve. But the mayor's spending record is all public, and tells a simple story of priorities. No mystery. Just math. www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comMatt Elliott: There’s no mystery behind Mayor Olivia Chow’s budget record — there’s just mathLately, the leading candidates taking on Mayor Olivia Chow in the race for mayor have taken to referring to the city’s budget like it’s some great cosmic mystery. A riddle 46723
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 23hAfter announcing a plan to lower water bills by spinning up a water utility corporation yesterday, Bradford today says he’ll ALSO use dividends from the new corp to help pay for a huge cut to the land transfer tax. He’s putting a whole lot of faith in the water. 5101
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 28/09/2026Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #403! Time to go to budget school! In this week’s newsletter, a list of all the wrong and right ways to talk about Toronto’s budget. Plus: Campaign Chaos has robots, karaoke and missing councillors. toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/all-the-wr...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comAll the wrong ways to talk about Toronto’s budgetCity Hall Watcher #403: A look at the complex and confusing nature of Toronto’s annual spending plan, plus campaign chaos considers missing councillors, robots, and karaoke 0100
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 25/09/2026A new Forum Research Poll has been added to City Hall Watcher’s election projection site: Chow 46% Bradford 35% Alexander 6% Other 13% No change to @alexo.bsky.social's projection. projection.cityhallwatcher.com/polls/projection.cityhallwatcher.comPolls — Toronto 2026Every public mayoral poll and the reported trend. 2162
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 25/09/2026To do the math here you first have to fix a basic error: Bradford’s 2026 figure includes the rate budget (garbage, water, parking) but his 2011 figure does not. Real numbers: $9.4 billion in 2011; $16.6 billion in 2026. Now account for ~800K population growth and ~40% inflation. 48131
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 23/09/2026Three polls added in recent days to City Hall Watcher’s election projection and, despite some “polls are tightening!” headlines about the mayoral race, things are looking… pretty flat. projection.cityhallwatcher.com 2278
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 22/09/2026Over the weekend, the Bradford campaign challenged the media to do this "scavenger hunt" to uncover supposed places where Olivia Chow frittered away the provincial New Deal money. Challenge accepted. From my newsletter this week, here’s what I found. 29246
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 22/09/2026My @thestar.com column: Forget the drama. With his awful poll numbers in Toronto, candidates REALLY don’t need Doug Ford’s endorsement. What they need, instead, is his money. Toronto’s budget documents show a city that’s banking big on more provincial funding in 2027 www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comWhat Toronto’s mayoral hopefuls want from Doug Ford more than his endorsementToronto’s next mayor needs $481 million from Doug Ford and Ottawa to avoid a 10 per cent property tax hike. Read about the city’s fiscal reality. 192
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 21/09/2026Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #402! A very nerdy edition, as I analyze councillor speaking time. Who speaks the most? Who speaks the least? All is revealed! Also: taking Bradford’s scavenger hunt challenge, candidate chaos, and more! toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/quantifyin...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comQuantifying Council’s chatterboxes — and quietest membersCity Hall Watcher #402: On a lark, I analyzed 392 hours of Council speech and can now tell you definitively which councillors like to talk. Also: Candidate Chaos, a campaign fact check, and more! 1110
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 16/09/2026Chow has a release touting quasi-endorsement from Doug Ford, who said this morning that he and the mayor have a “phenomenal relationship.” No doubt she’s been good at extracting cash from Ford, but I’d bet a lot of Toronto voters would prefer to hear less about friendship and more about fighting. 11739
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 16/09/2026I was also asked by the Star to offer a quick take on Monday’s first real mayoral debate. Call it a cop out (if you must), but I ruled it a draw: www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comWho came out swinging? Our columnists score Chow, Bradford and Alexander in Toronto’s first full mayoral debateWho came out swinging? Who fell flat? Here’s what our analysts saw in the first full mayoral debate. 041
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 16/09/2026My @thestar.com column this week: so far, we’ve heard a lot of talk in this election about transit affordability and transit policing. But I think what most riders really want to hear about is something else entirely: better transit service. www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comMatt Elliott: Why are Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford ignoring what Toronto TTC riders actually want?A Liaison Strategies poll of 1,000 Toronto residents reveals 52 per cent want better TTC service, not just fare freezes or more police. 46312
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 15/09/2026Our ABC mayoral candidates — Alexander, Bradford and Chow — are getting set to face off at the Daily Bread Food Bank debate. I will post some thoughts and jokes, probably. You can watch live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHv6...youtube.com2026 Toronto Mayoral Debate at Daily Bread Food BankYouTube video by Daily Bread Food Bank 13713
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 14/09/2026Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #401! It’s got the launch of another new election feature: Lobbying Report Cards. Find out who your councillor has been hearing from Plus: Intersection Inspection looks at Mill & Cherry, Candidate Chaos, and more! toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/issuing-lo...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comIssuing lobbying report cards at the end of the termCity Hall Watcher #401: Handing out a Lobbying Report Card for every councillor, plus the return of Intersection Inspection and more CANDIDATE CHAOS 0112
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 10/09/2026After more than 1,000 runs, Councillor Alejandra Bravo tops the SimCouncillor leaderboard for the councillor with the views quiz-takers align with, though Josh Matlow is a close second. (Last place, for now: Vince Crisanti). Try it out if you haven’t yet: www.councilscorecard.ca/quiz 3267
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 09/09/2026New mayoral poll added to City Hall Watcher’s Projection Section: Chow: 50% Bradford: 39% Alexander: 10% Other: 2% Sample: 1,000 / Sept 5, 2026 / Liaison Strategies / IVR View all polls and the projected outcome: projection.cityhallwatcher.comprojection.cityhallwatcher.comToronto 2026 ElectionsA mayoral forecast, the polls behind it, and Toronto's council and school-board races. 3152
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 08/09/2026Check your inbox: It’s the 400th issue of City Hall Watcher! And it’s FREE! To celebrate, I brought you a fun new game: SimCouncillor. Step into the shoes of your councillor and tell us how you’d vote. Plus: LOBBYIST WATCH, CANDIDATE CHAOS, and more! toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/celebrate-...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comCelebrate 400 issues with a game of SimCouncillorCity Hall Watcher #400: To mark a milestone, I’ve got a new interactive tool to help you find out how well you line up with your councillor. Plus: LOBBYIST WATCH, CANDIDATE CHAOS, and more! 43210
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 02/09/2026Toronto is putting on a “Kids Vote Weekend” in October, where kids will go to polling locations and vote for one of five candidates running to be Tree of the Year. I will be cancelling all my coverage of the mayoral race and focusing exclusively on this contest. www.toronto.ca/city-governm... 69521
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 02/09/2026My @thestar.com column: After 20 years, Toronto finally has a chance to get on-street litter bins that don’t totally suck. It might seem like small potatoes, but this trashy issue is a pretty good litmus test for the election. Who do you trust to finally fix this? www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comMatt Elliott: Toronto’s street litter bins are total garbage. That makes them an ideal election issueWith the end of a 20-year contract, Toronto has a chance to fix its terrible litter bins. Why the municipal election is a litmus test. 1315
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 02/09/2026New pod! I joined Metro Morning’s Chris Glover this week to talk about municipal election season with the Star’s Mahdis Habibinia and Toronto Today’s Aidan Chamandy. What’s this election really ABOUT? Well, it depends. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndx_...youtube.comThis is Toronto [FULL EPISODE] | What’s this mayoral election really about?YouTube video by CBC News Toronto 072
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 01/09/2026If drivers want to credibly blame anything for traffic, they could blame an increase in the number of traffic signals. But hard to reverse this trend — the city is growing, mostly via high-rise dev, and people want safe places to cross near their homes. toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/dont-blame... 76411
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 01/09/2026Obviously ridiculous and huge waste of time/money but I guess I find solace in strong belief that the outcome Ford and co want will not be achieved. Driving in this city will not suddenly be pleasant and efficient because of this change. Wonder what they’ll blame next www.thestar.com/news/gta/for...thestar.comDoug Ford is hiring contractors to remove Toronto’s major bike lanes, as advocates warn of bidding ‘minefield’Following a victory at the Appeal Court earlier this month, the Ford government has issued a request for proposals to remove bike lanes on the city’s busiest streets. 1110831
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 31/08/2026Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #399! Guest Andrey Levkovski follows the money from Chow’s property tax increases, and finds a lot of police spending. Plus: robot permit checkers, a mass of cyclists, the state of the mayoral race, and more! toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/following-...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comFollowing the money from the mayor’s property tax increasesCity Hall Watcher #399: Andrey Levkovski looks at what three years of property tax increases paid for, plus rise of the robot permit checkers, a critical mass of cyclists, and more! 0122
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 26/08/2026Fun new addition to City Hall Watcher’s Election Projection: a visual of likely winning margins and how they compare to past mayoral election results. projection.cityhallwatcher.com 0151
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 25/08/2026My @thestar.com column: Olivia Chow is making big moves to put a team together for a potential second term. But who’s on Team Bradford? The mayor’s main opponent has had trouble finding allies at city hall—where it’s hard to get things done without a strong team. www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comMatt Elliott: Why Olivia Chow is building a council team for her second term — and why Brad Bradford is rolling soloOlivia Chow is building a council team with Mike Layton and Nate Erskine-Smith. Can opponent Brad Bradford win the Toronto mayor’s race solo? 2312
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 24/08/2026Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #398! A big issue this week, as City Hall Watcher launches our ELECTION PROJECTION project — a collab with UofT’s Alex Olson. Also: your final Scorecard update for the term and a recap of a wild electoral week. toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/introducin...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comIntroducing City Hall Watcher’s Election Projection SectionCity Hall Watcher #398: A new collaboration helps forecast the municipal election, plus a Council Scorecard update and a look at the drama before the nomination deadline! 1171
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 21/08/2026Following confirmation that Chris Alexander is staying in the mayoral race and will be on the ballot this fall, the Brad Bradford campaign remains quite mad, sending out a long list of quotes from various people questioning the wisdom of Alexander’s candidacy. 8251
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 21/08/2026Fletcher’s withdrawal really shook things up. Toronto-Danforth was looking like a sleepy race. Now it has more candidates (18!) running than any other ward. Reinforce your doors, Tor-Dan residents. They’re going to get knocked a lot. 7537
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 21/08/2026Last-minute election switcheraoo is official: Councillor Dianne Saxe has withdrawn from the race in University-Rosedale, where she currently serves, and is now running for the vacant seat in Toronto-Danforth. 4293
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 21/08/2026As was foretold, former councillor Mary Fragedakis has indeed registered to run for council in Toronto-Danforth. Trying for the comeback. 170
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 20/08/2026This release from the Bradford campaign suggests Chris Alexander probably isn’t dropping out of the mayoral race before tomorrow’s nomination deadline, and also that Bradford is pretty mad about that. 8534
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 20/08/2026Sets up the potential for some vote-splitting in Toronto Centre, where nine candidates are registered. 081
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 20/08/2026The other shoe drops in Toronto-Danforth: TDSB Trustee Sara Ehrhardt has registered for the seat vacated by Paula Fletcher. Ehrhardt has already been endorsed by NDP MPP Peter Tabuns. 291
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 17/08/2026Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #397! The Council Power Rankings return! Find out how your councillor ranks in terms of power and influence. Plus: stats on attendance, mayoral support and motion success. toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/the-2026-c...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comThe 2026 Council Power RankingsCity Hall Watcher #397: After an action-packed, surprising term of Council, how do councillors rank in terms of power and influence? 071
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 17/08/2026Paula Fletcher has finally filed to run for re-election. That makes it official: every incumbent councillor is seeking to return to their office, except Councillor Gord Perks (retiring) and Councillor Brad Bradford (trying to become mayor). Full tracker: toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/2026-candi... 5294
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 14/08/2026"The legislature is free to legislate to remove a bicycle lane from a road – indeed, it may remove a road entirely – without implicating the Charter,,” says the Court of Appeal. Provincial government wins. coadecisions.ontariocourts.ca/coa/coa/en/i...coadecisions.ontariocourts.ca Cycle Toronto v. Ontario (Attorney General) - Court of Appeal for Ontario 84213
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 14/08/2026Useful table-setting analysis of the bike lane court decision set to drop in about an hour. 1163
Reposted by Matt ElliottDevan Marr @devanmarr.bsky.social · 14/08/20261/ Hey, remember when I live posted the @cycletoronto.bsky.social @ecojusticecanada.bsky.social Bill 212 Charter Challenge a few months ago? The decision comes out today! I suspect the parties already have it but the public gets it at 12:15 on the Court's website. A quick review, & my hot takes... 2173
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 12/08/2026My @thestar.com column: How do you like your intersections? I like mine scrambled. But despite success with pedestrian scrambles installed at Bloor & Yonge and Yonge & Dundas, Toronto has been slow to follow up. Now’s a good time to get cracking on installing more. www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comMatt Elliott: Pedestrians outnumber cars 2 to 1 at Yonge and Eglinton. This is the perfect solution — but why are we still waiting for it?Toronto is planning its first new pedestrian scrambles in over 15 years at Yonge and Eglinton. Here is why the data shows we need more. 4428
Reposted by Matt ElliottDamien Moule @damienmoule.bsky.social · 12/08/2026The Toronto municipal election is still looking for a central issue. While acknowledging this is far too boring for most normal people, this is my pitch for what it should be about: the Official Plan will have to be rewritten, we should do it right. toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/are-counci...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comAre Council contenders ready for "big freaking deal" changes to the Official Plan?City Hall Watcher #388: Damien Moule on the "largest change to municipal land use planning in Ontario in decades", plus CITY HALL WATCHER LIVE lets you reflect on 15+ years of Council coverage 6355
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 11/08/2026Mayoral candidate Brad Bradford makes it official: he’d remove the Bloor West bike lanes if he wins in October. 236912
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 10/08/2026Check your inbox: It’s City Hall Watcher #396! LOBBYIST WATCH returns, with a look at some inevitable data centre lobbying, the end (for now) of the island airport debate, Loblaw’s response to a surveillance pricing ban, odour detection tech, and more! toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/now-loadin...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comNow loading: Data centre lobbying at Toronto City HallCity Hall Watcher #396: Lobbyist Watch for July 2026, featuring notes on the grounded island airport debate, Loblaw's City Hall surveillance, and more! 0102
Reposted by Matt ElliottToronto the Politics the Show @torontothepolitics.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Matt Elliott (City Hall Watcher) and Sabrina Nanji (QP Park Observer) join Chris to chat all the news happening at Queen's Park and City Hall. Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/74qE... Other apps: pod.link/6787284106/e... @graphicmatt.com #topoli 042
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 05/08/2026My @thestar.com column: It looks like darn near every member of Toronto City Council will be running for re-election this year, leaving little opportunity for new voices at city hall. I’ve never been a big fan of term limits, but now I’m starting to reconsider. www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...thestar.comMatt Elliott: Gord Perks left Toronto council with a bang. Why won’t his long-serving colleagues ever leave?With Toronto councillors serving for decades and Doug Ford blocking key reforms, term limits may be the only way to get new voices at city hall. 1120
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 05/08/2026Check your inbox: it’s City Hall Watcher #395! A recap of the FINAL council meeting of the term, with the most quotable quotes, a chart of how Council killed time, and a look at their decisions on data centres, the island airport and surveillance pricing toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/p/council-cl...toronto.cityhallwatcher.comCouncil closes term with debates on island airport, surveillance pricing and data centresCity Hall Watcher #395: Your complete recap of the July 2026 meeting of Toronto Council, with notes on housing, fires, a rebrand for the sewage treatment playground (why?), and more 061
Matt Elliott @graphicmatt.com · 29/07/2026Toronto Council meets today! It's the FINAL meeting of the term. The end is near, but not too near, because there are — oh no — 409 items on this agenda. This could take a while. It's streaming live here. I'll post happenings. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynN8...youtube.comCity Council - July 29, 2026YouTube video by Toronto City Council 4748