Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 06/11/2025Understanding this monetary–fiscal nexus is key to grasping what “sustainability” really means 030
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 06/11/2025What truly matters is the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy. When a government issues debt in its own currency, and the central bank stands behind it, the constraints it faces are not those of a household or a firm. 130
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 06/11/2025This is an important post on debt sustainability. We often treat debt as a purely fiscal issue, searching for magic numbers (38T, 45T) or debt-to-GDP ratios (90%, 120%) beyond which everything unravels. But that misses the bigger picture. #debt #US #fiscalpolicy open.substack.com/pub/pierpa61...open.substack.comIs U.S. Government Debt Unsustainable?The $38 trillion U.S. 111
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 28/10/2025In my column for Herald Insight Collection, I explore how swap lines could evolve into geopolitical instruments of strategy and power. www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...linkedin.com#geopolitics #swap_lines #united_states #china | Herald Insight Collection(#HIC)Professor Gianluca Benigno at the University of Lausanne took an in-depth look at global currency swaps, which have emerged as a key issue in #geopolitics. He offers the insight that the geopolitics o... 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 12/09/2025Hi, apologies for the delayed reply. Since June, perceptions of the labor market have shifted, and it now seems likely that we’ll see at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, possibly three. The next SEP is out next week, so we’ll have a clearer view of the new median then. 000
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 18/06/2025Committee Dynamics: Potential split: There may be a growing divide between the voting members (12 FOMC) and the full committee (19 participants) about the pace and direction of policy. Future decisions, especially from September on, are likely to hinge on the inflation outlook. 000
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 18/06/2025Stagflation risks noted: End of 2025-GDP growth (2025 median) drops from 1.7% to 1.4% (central tendency narrows from 1.5–1.9% to 1.2–1.5%) End of 2025-PCE inflation (2025 median) rises from 2.7% to 3.0% (central tendency shifts from 2.6–2.9% to 2.9–3.4%) 100
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 18/06/2025Quick Fed Update: 2025 rate cuts: The median projection still sees 2 rate cuts by end-2025. Rising support for “no cuts”: In March 2025, 4 FOMC participants saw no cuts in 2025. In June, that number has increased to 7, showing increased caution within the committee on easing policy further. 220
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/05/2025open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comJapan April-25 CPI Inflation ReportSticky core and goods inflation keep pressure on the BoJ’s cautious stance. 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/05/2025Japan Inflation (Apr): CPI steady at 3.6% YoY; core CPI up to 3.5%. Food eased, but rice +98.4% YoY. Goods—not services—drive inflation. BoJ likely to stay cautious amid external risks. #Japan #CPI #BoJ #inflation #economy #Yen 100
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 21/05/2025open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comUK April-25 CPI Inflation ReportHeadline CPI rose as regulated price increases took effect. More notably, there was a surprise uptick in services inflation, which climbed to 5.4%. 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 21/05/2025UK data: CPI rose to 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.3% expected), led by services inflation at 5.4% YoY, up from 4.7%. With wage growth sticky at 5.4% YoY, the current release might lead to a further cautious approach by the #BoE. #UKinflation #CPI #wages #BoE #interestrates #monetarypolicy 210
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/05/2025Decline in interest rates would mitigate the cash-flow channel (associated with higher mortgage payments) and support aggregate demand, but overall, it is hard to see how all this would lead to inflation in a low-growth context with lack of fiscal support 020
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/05/2025Thanks for your comment, I agree that there are structural factors in explaining pressures in the rental market, but what is striking about the UK and also Canada is how rent inflation started rising as interest rates increased and now has recently declined in Canada as they cut interest rates more. 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/05/2025From a monetary policy perspective, these factors suggest that more decisive easing by the Bank of England could be appropriate, with relatively limited side effects in the current context. #Inflation #Interestrates #MonetaryPolicy 3/3. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comThe Flip Side of UK Monetary PolicyThis note draws from remarks I delivered as part of the monetary policy outlook panel at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference. 000
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/05/2025I made 3 key points: a)The role of rent inflation in accounting for UK inflation and its persistence b)The rapid and sizeable increase in the policy rate as a driver of UK inflation through higher rent c)The role of wage growth as demand support rather than just an input cost 2/3 100
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/05/2025I presented "The Flip Side of UK Monetary Policy" last week at the BoE's Watchers Conference. The main message is that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is not mechanical, but depends on state-contingent and institutional country-specific factors. #BankofEngland 1/3 150
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 13/05/2025No signs of tariffs-induced price increases yet for the U.S. economy. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comUS April-25 CPI Inflation ReportDisinflation continues, as tariff-driven inflation fears have yet to materialize. The current release suggests no change in the "wait and see" monetary policy approach. 010
Reposted by Gianluca BenignoNathan Converse @nathanecon.bsky.social · 19/04/2025Finally, in my own paper with @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social, we show that the Financial Resource Curse is not merely a theoretical possibility by presenting careful empirical evidence that it is a general phenomenon www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 4/nsciencedirect.comLarge capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performanceThis paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countr… 062
Reposted by Gianluca BenignoNathan Converse @nathanecon.bsky.social · 19/04/2025In an AER paper w Martin Wolf (of U.St.Gallen) @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social show that the Financial Resource Curse has even larger negative implications when flows go to the world technological leader, I.e. the US (ungated here: www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...) 3/nnewyorkfed.orgThe Global Financial Resource Curse - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK 152
Reposted by Gianluca BenignoNathan Converse @nathanecon.bsky.social · 19/04/2025I like that Brunnermeier and Merkel at least nod (without citation for some reason) at @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social ‘s work on the Financial Resource Curse (e.g crei.cat/wp-content/u...) 3/ncrei.cat 122
Reposted by Gianluca BenignoMenzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 09/04/2025When tariffs become a financial shock inducing feedback loop in asset prices @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social #econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202... 186
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 07/04/2025My teaching notes on the new U.S. Trade regime. What are tariffs? Who pays for it? Do they increase prices? what policy actions have been adopted, their implementation and possible legal challenges. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comA Quick Guide to the New U.S. Trade RegimeThis is a major structural shift to the global economy, here I review the basics. 082
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 13/02/2025January CPI inflation release surprised on the upside. Core inflation seems to be stuck above 3% showing little progress. As trade tensions increase, goods prices will likely add to inflationary pressures rather than contribute to disinflation as in 2024. gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/us-january...gianlucabenigno.substack.comUS January-25 CPI Inflation reportAn unexpected rise in inflation will likely dampen expectations for rate cuts, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance and increasing the likelihood of a prolonged higher-for-longer rate environment. 141
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 29/01/2025Interest Rates Politics: can Trump Pressure the Fed? open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comInterest Rates Politics: can Trump Pressure the Fed?It is still inflation that matters 040
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/12/2024This is the link of @martinsandbu.bsky.social on.ft.com/4gqJKmzon.ft.comA Copernican revolution in EU economic thinking?‘Draghi plus’ would make Europe take domestic demand seriously — and not before time 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/12/2024Nice article by @martinsandbu.bsky.social on Draghi's proposal. "Demand creates its own supply" this is what happens in the Keynesian growth framework (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/04/the-...)libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.orgThe Keynesian Growth Approach to Macroeconomic Policy and Productivity - Liberty Street EconomicsProductivity is one of the key determinants of potential output—that is, the trend level of production consistent with stable inflation. A productivity growth slowdown has occurred in several advanced... 131
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 10/12/2024How can Central Banks manage the post-pandemic world with increased macro variability, geopolitical tensions, and shifting interest rate dynamics? Building on the BoE, I explore how scenario analysis could emerge as a new communication device for CBs. gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/scenario-a...gianlucabenigno.substack.comScenario Analysis as Communication Device for Central BankingReshaping Communication: The Bernanke Review will affect Central Banks’ communication beyond the Bank of England. 040
Reposted by Gianluca BenignoLukas Mergele @lukasmergele.bsky.social · 27/11/2024@andreasbeerli.bsky.social @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social @kenzabenhima.bsky.social @fuster.bsky.social @eyquem2.bsky.social @dominic-rohner.bsky.social @marcbruetsch.bsky.social @karstenjunius.bsky.social 031
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 14/11/2024This reflects the guidance provided by Powell at the November press conference where he stated “..we are on a path to a more neutral stance.. that has not changed at all since September..”. There is one more CPI inflation report before the next FOMC policy meeting. 020
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 14/11/2024This would mark a decisive shift relative to the pre-pandemic period in which both measures were gravitating around 2%. Financial markets have reacted by pricing more aggressively the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut the Fed Fund rate again by 25 bps in December. 120
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 14/11/2024Today’s CPI inflation report suggests that progress towards the 2% target is slow. My interpretation is that inflation has reached a plateau, gravitating around 2.5% at the headline level and around 3% at the core CPI level. (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/october-24...)gianlucabenigno.substack.comOctober-24 U.S. CPI Inflation ReportStill persistently high Core Inflation 160
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/10/2024In my substack, I describe the intellectual background behind this research agenda along with the suggested policy implications that we analyze in the paper. (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...)open.substack.comThe Global Financial Resource CurseOn the need to revisit globalization 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/10/2024More generally the complexity of market functioning and social outcomes require research efforts that build upon these complexities and question established assumptions. 110
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/10/2024This research exposes the limit of the traditional wisdom that emphasizes the benefits of globalization. Here we focus on how the interaction between financial integration and growth shapes financial globalization when there are key asymmetries among integrated countries. 100
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/10/2024This curse is reminiscent of the natural resource curse, but its origins are financial and its implications are global. The U.S. economy faces a “real” exorbitant duty: lower growth is the cost of the exorbitant privilege associated with the desirability of its assets. 100
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/10/2024When capital flows are directed toward the U.S. economy, the increase in demand for non-traded goods shifts resources away from the relatively more productive traded sector. This shift leads to lower productivity growth not just in the U.S. but eventually globally. 110
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 23/10/2024The Global Financial Resource Curse is now a forthcoming paper in the American Economic Review. lnkd.in/gXEVV4ym The Global Financial Resource curse is a depressed growth outcome under financial integration, resulting in low growth, low productivity, and super-low real interest rates 173
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 21/10/2024In the blog linked below, I examine this issue more systematically. gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/a-quasi-gl...gianlucabenigno.substack.comA Quasi-Global Inflation OverviewA review of the key inflation trends among advanced economies and some policy implications 032
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 21/10/2024Is inflation no longer a problem? While inflation in many advanced economies has moved closer to central bank targets, significant differences remain between various measures of inflation. For example, services inflation is in general higher than pre-pandemic with more variations across countries. 172
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 30/09/2024gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/why-the-fe...gianlucabenigno.substack.comWhy the Fed’s Interest Cut Won’t Matter in the ElectionPost-pandemic voters: Heightened loss aversion and higher reference prices cloud perceptions of price stability 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 30/09/2024Does the recent interest rate cut by the Fed influence the U.S. election? In my blog, I argue that American consumers' dissatisfaction with the economic outlook is more closely tied to high prices than the control of inflation. I explore how behavioral factors might explain this connection. 110
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 15/09/2024The upcoming FOMC meeting is marked by significant uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the Federal Funds Rate cut. I suggest that a 50bps reduction could result from a split vote within the FOMC. (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...) 020
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 12/09/2024Following yesterday's CPI report, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut has decreased significantly. In the U.S. CPI report, we highlight the persistence of core inflation and core services as key factors contributing to this market adjustment. (open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...). 020
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 14/08/2024It's Inflation Report Day today, starting with the UK CPI report. Our supercore inflation measure has shown a marked decline, both on a m/m basis (0.3% in July, down from 0.5% in June) and on a y/y (4.8% in July, down from 5.4% in June). (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/uk-july-24...)gianlucabenigno.substack.comUK July 24-CPI Inflation ReportMarked decline in supercore inflation would justify continuation of easing cycle in September 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 10/08/2024The blog post, "The Bank of Japan's Put," (gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/the-bank…) explores the role of the Bank of Japan and the yen's reversal in understanding recent developments.gianlucabenigno.substack.com 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 10/08/2024 In the blog "Post-FOMC Update: The Fed and Market Shifts,"(gianlucabenigno.substack.com/p/post-fom…) I examine the differing interpretations of the labor market by the Federal Reserve and the market following the July FOMC meeting.gianlucabenigno.substack.com 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/04/2024It was an interesting conference at the Federal Reserve Board last Tuesday and Wednesday with interesting keynotes and panel contributions by Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson, Mark Gertler, Isabel Schnabel, Silvana Tenreyro, Olivier Blanchard, and James Bullard. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca... 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 02/04/2024The Swiss National Bank has started its easing cycle. It might face a challenge in limiting the strength of the Swiss franc. I discuss the policy decision and the SNB's future challenges here open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comThe SNB sets the timeTo depreciate the Swiss franc 010
Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 20/03/2024In my latest post, I discuss why the U.S. economy might be running at a different speed than pre-pandemic thanks to fiscal policy. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...open.substack.comThe Fed’s Trap and Fiscal PrimacyThe Fed’s trap is its backward thinking! 010