Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 20/08/20261) Report launch! My colleague Ted Fujimoto and I looked how the rise of proliferated, space-based ISR and AI are affecting strategic stability, with a focus on U.S.-China. A quick summary of our main findings here: 152
Reposted by Garrett Hinckberkeleyrisk.bsky.social @berkeleyrisk.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Join BRSL and @councilonstrategicrisks.org next week for a webinar on @garretthinck.bsky.social and Ted Fujimoto's forthcoming paper on how AI capabilities for intelligence surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) promise to radically augment the detection, tracking, and targeting of military assets. 111
Reposted by Garrett HinckAndrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 06/02/2026UnderSecT DiNanno: "China has used decoupling method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring to hide their activities from the world. China conducted one such yield producing nuclear tests on June 22 of 2020" 144
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Good take- one way you can guess that the concept of "grand strategy" is somewhat flimsy is that the question of "how do we know if a grand strategy is good or not" tends to lead to rhetorical contortions that would make fun pasta shapes. 000
Reposted by Garrett HinckAndrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Axios reports a draft agreement has been reached in Abu Dhabi between Witkoff/Kushner and Russian officials on sticking to New START limits after treaty expiration. Still needs to be approved by Trump, but seems likely. Deus ex machina www.axios.com/2026/02/05/n...axios.comScoop: U.S. and Russia agree to observe New START nuclear pact after expirationNew START is the last major guardrail constraining the nuclear arsenals of the two countries that together hold some 85% of the world's warheads. 074
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 04/02/2026Good thread. I’d add that while the loss of transparency via inspections is significant, that has not been in effect for years at this point and would be less important anyway as new Russian systems are developed that fall outside the treaty limits. 152
Reposted by Garrett HinckJames Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 06/12/2025The basic problem with the United States' call for Europe to lead on conventional forces while it takes care of nuclear deterrence. 78719
Reposted by Garrett HinckSpaceNews @spacenewsinc.bsky.social · 04/12/2025The overlooked space race: keeping satellites alive U.S. Space Command’s push for “dynamic space operations” — the ability to maneuver in orbit without worrying about running dry — demands logistics the military has never had.spacenews.comThe overlooked space race: keeping satellites aliveU.S. Space Command’s push for “dynamic space operations” — the ability to maneuver in orbit without worrying about running dry — demands logistics the military has never had. 083
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 04/12/2025I'm back up at Strategic Defense with a look at the extension of New START and the politics of linkage that will likely determine its fate. Check it out and let me know what you think! open.substack.com/pub/strategi...open.substack.comNew START Extension: The Political Side of Arms ControlMaybe the real arms control was the friends we made along the way? 020
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 30/10/2025No idea if this will mean actual testing of weapons or of old (or new) delivery systems, based on the qualifier of matching Russia/China. Likely they don't know yet (or perhaps don't know the difference). www.npr.org/2025/10/30/g...npr.orgTrump suggests the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weaponsPresident Donald Trump appeared to suggest the U.S. will resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time in three decades, saying it would be on an "equal basis" with Russia and China. 000
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 14/08/2025Fmr DNSA Anne Neuberger argues that, in response to the Chinese cyber threat, the US needs to establish a "new cyber-deterrence policy". This side-steps an important question: what should be the limits of adversary cyber espionage against the US? Article: www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-...foreignaffairs.comChina Is Winning the CyberwarAmerica needs a new strategy of deterrence. 110
Reposted by Garrett HinckRebecca Plevin @rebeccaplevin.bsky.social · 21/02/2025Following a loud public outcry about job cuts at the National Parks Service — and a relentless media campaign from outdoors enthusiasts across the country — it looks like the Trump administration has blinked. via @jackdolan.bsky.sociallatimes.comTrump administration backtracks on eliminating thousands of national parks employeesFollowing a loud public outcry, and relentless media campaign from outdoors enthusiasts, the Trump administration has reversed course on a plan to eliminate thousands of seasonal workers at the Nation... 231297465
Reposted by Garrett HinckGravel Influencer @gravelinfluencer.bsky.social · 14/02/2025This comment on r/fednews really stood out to me. Trump and Musk want people to think they're firing do-nothing "bureaucrats," but they're really getting rid of people dedicated to serving this country and keeping it operational. I hope these stories get told. 219139264788
Reposted by Garrett HinckCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 14/02/2025ABC: “.. Multiple current and former employees described the situation as ‘a national security crisis.’” @abcnewsgo.bsky.social abcnews.go.com/Politics/liv... 59188594067
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 10/02/2025My new post for Strategy Defense looks at how psychology and strategy interact in debates on nuclear weapons, specifically whether there has been a "nuclear revolution". Plus I cover some ongoing developments with missile defense - check it out here: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...open.substack.comIt's All In Your Head: Psychology and StrategyWhat we can and can't learn from taking human psychology seriously in strategy 010
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 29/01/2025The second part to my post covering Trump's missile defense plans is now out, including discussion of the new EO: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...open.substack.comUnder the Dome Part II: Strategy and RealityUnpacking the new executive order and considering the broader strategic picture 100
Garrett Hinck @garretthinck.bsky.social · 25/01/2025Announcement! I've started a blog - Strategic Defense - where I'm writing about issues involving strategic forces, technology, and international relations. My first post is live and looks at Trump's call for the US to have its own "Iron Dome". Check it out here: open.substack.com/pub/strategi...open.substack.comWelcome / Under the Dome - SDI Redux?This post is somewhat in lieu of an introduction. 020