The Peterson Institute for International Economics will host an exclusive discussion titled "International Imbalances Again? Still? Forever?" examining the persistence, drivers, and policy implication...

Global current account imbalances widened in the past two years, led by growing surpluses in China and deficits in the United States. Most forecasters expect imbalances to stabilize or even narrow in ...

This event revisits and expands on themes from PIIE’s spring discussion, “Does changing the trade regime change the dollar regime? To Mar-a-Lago and beyond.” Against the backdrop of shifting trade pol...

Who profits in a post-American world?

The Federal Reserve’s September 16-17 policy meeting may well be one of the most contentious in years. Although financial market investors see a 25 basis point interest rate cut as close to a lock, so...

The United States has run significant external deficits for half a century and the associated net international liabilities have been growing, especially recently. Yet, in contrast to earlier periods ...

A rough consensus has evolved around the causes of the COVID-era inflationary spike: the disruption in supply chains; the shift in demand from services to goods; the surge in commodity prices that fol...

On March 5, US President Donald Trump addressed Congress, opening his speech with the statement, "America is Back." During his address, Trump asserted that other nations have long imposed tariffs on ...

US presidents traditionally avoid even the appearance of meddling with monetary policy

January 20, 2025 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE THE SECRETARY OF

The speed of both the rise and fall of US inflation in 2021–23 took many economists by surprise. This paper shows that the rise of COVID era inflation reflects three independent shocks: a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and supply disruptions; the largest commodity price surge in 40 years caused by the Ukraine war; and strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, which kept labor markets tight. The authors document the transmission of these shocks through the main components of private consumption: durable goods, nondurable goods, and services.