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Gabe De Roche

@gabederoche.bsky.social
71 followers 140 following 22 posts

Political science PhD and public opinion researcher. Director of Polling and Survey Research at the 2035 Initiative at UC Santa Barbara, a think-and-do-tank focused on the clean energy transition. Co-host of the Culture Lab podcast.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
🆕 Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question": When is a by-election a turning point? Featuring @ericgrenier.bsky.social.
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Read the full report at 2035initiative.com/climate-hush/
2035initiative.com
Politicians Shouldn’t Hide From Climate — The 2035 Initiative
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Taken together, this is a body of evidence that acknowledges that climate change has moved lower on the list of voters' priorities, but it shows that the recommendation to back away from pro-climate policy commitments is wrong, and likely a vote-loser. [13/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
"Build more": solar & wind more popular than oil & gas "Cut red tape": more popular for solar & wind than for oil & gas "Ban new projects": both opposed, more opposition for solar & wind than oil & gas "New fee/tax": least popular, equally for solar & wind as oil & gas [12/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Finally -- researchers and commentators have put forward evidence that pro-climate policies are less popular than pro-fossil alternatives. Could it be that voters are responding to the policy mechanism -- "build more" or "new fee" or "ban" -- more than the content itself? [11/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Other issues we tested have larger "backlash" risk -- climate action, as well as the clean energy transition, had one of the smallest backlash risks of everything we tested. [10/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Instead, we find that pro-climate voters are much more likely to factor the issue into their vote decision than anti-climate voters -- only 11% oppose climate action AND vote on it. This "heat map" shows how climate voters are distributed. [9/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Another test -- if voters penalized Democrats for taking pro-climate positions, we would expect to find a non-trivial group of voters who opposed climate policy, and who weighed these beliefs heavily in their vote choice. [8/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The conclusion isn't that candidates should talk about climate instead of other issue priorities. It's that being pro-climate is a vote-getter, not a vote-loser. [7/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Among people open to voting Democrat, making climate a priority yields a 5.9 point boost. Making climate a top priority yields a 7.2 point boost. If the climate hush/climate backlash theory were true, these effects would be negative, not positive! [6/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
All else equal (i.e. even when candidates also prioritize or de-prioritize high-salience issues like affordability or health care), prioritizing climate gives a 2.7 point boost to the candidate, and making climate a top priority gives a 4.5 point boost. [5/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
One of the things we did was to use a conjoint experiment where voters choose between two candidates with randomly generated policy positions. With this design, we can isolate the effects of prioritizing any one issue. [4/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Could we replicate the findings of those pushing the "don't say climate change" (or climate hush) approach? Yes, we found that voters aren't ranking climate among their top priorities. But it's wrong to conclude that climate is a negative pull on vote choice, because... [3/13]
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Full report here: 2035initiative.com/climate-hush/ TL;DR: we find that talking about climate change wins votes rather than costs votes for Democrats. Pro-climate & clean energy voters are MUCH more motivated to vote than those opposed or indifferent, with minimal backlash risk. [2/13]
2035initiative.com
Politicians Shouldn’t Hide From Climate — The 2035 Initiative
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
New survey research released today with @mattomildenberger.bsky.social -- a response to the "don't say climate change" crowd. Many have observed that climate change has moved down voters' list of priorities and have concluded that pro-climate policies would cost votes. That's testable! 🧵[1/13]
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
🆕 Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question": Who the hell is Eric Lombardi? YouTube youtu.be/XDDMgQzUYP4?... Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w... Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/4eSA...
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
🆕 Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question": Is a social media ban protecting kids or just politics? ft. Kaity Mendes. Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
🆕 Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social & @gabederoche.bsky.social in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question": Is Alberta separatism more bark than bite? Ft. pollster Janet Brown. Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i... Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/6m6c...
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
🆕 Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question": Did the Clip Economy steal the plot? Featuring pollster Dan Arnold!
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
🆕 Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question": Are populists the silent majority in Canada? Featuring Greg Lyle!
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🚨 Joining us tomorrow on the Culture Lab podcast with @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social ... @gmbutts.bsky.social! We'll explore our "loaded question": Is America making offers nobody can refuse?
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
🆕 Episode 2 of Culture Lab with Kyla and Gabe out now! Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social as they explore this week's "loaded question": How did Heated Rivalry deke the culture wars? Featuring special guest, @justinling.ca. www.airquotesmedia.com/culturelab
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Reposted by Gabe De Roche
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
🆕 Episode 1 of Culture Lab with Kyla and Gabe out now! Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social as they'll explore this week's "loaded question": What's the matter with Liberals? Featuring special guest, David Herle. Subscribe today⬇️ www.airquotesmedia.com/culturelab
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Subscribe on Spotify: bit.ly/culture_lab_...
bit.ly
Spotify – Web Player
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: apple.co/4qxlNyx
apple.co
Culture Lab with Kyla and Gabe
Politics Podcast · Culture Lab: the marvelous mad science of how the zeitgeist shapes politics.Have you ever wanted to put a deeper lens on how culture is shaping our politics? For instance ... How di...
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Subscribe on YouTube: bit.ly/culture_lab_...
bit.ly
Culture Lab with Kyla and Gabe - YouTube
Culture Lab: the marvelous mad science of how the zeitgeist shapes politics. Have you ever wanted to put a deeper lens on how culture is shaping our politics...
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Join us for a fun look at weird patterns in the data, interviews with experts, and sweeping (definitive!) takes on the zeitgeist. Check it out every Wednesday, starting Feb 18th. And subscribe at the links below: (3 / n)
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
We'll bring the data and talk to experts to understand our truly unsettled zeitgeist. This is more than just a polling podcast; we want to understand the forces behind how something becomes normal, taboo, or inevitable, and how it moves voter coalitions (2 / n)
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Very excited to be launching a new podcast, Culture Lab, with my cohost @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and the team at @airquotesmedia.bsky.social (Curse of Politics, Herle Burly, Hotel Pacifico), where we explore the mad science of how the zeitgeist shapes our politics. Links in this 🧵:
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
🍾🥂 May 2026 be better than 2025. A tall order, I know.
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Gabe De Roche @gabederoche.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Hot take
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