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Éric Grenier

@ericgrenier.bsky.social
8.6K followers 123 following 813 posts

I cover elections at The Writ (thewrit.ca), The Numbers (thenumberspod.ca) and Les chiffres (leschiffres.ca) Follow me on YouTube: youtube.com/@TheWrit

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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 3h
BC Election Tracker update: CON🔵 39.0% / 49 seats NDP🟠 38.7% / 42 GRN🟢 11.3% / 2 CBC🔴 4.2% / 0 OBC🟡 4.1% / 0 Full details: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's British Columbia Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 24 provincial election in B.C.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Just launched! The BC Conservatives start out as the narrow favourites in The Writ's BC election projection: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's British Columbia Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 24 provincial election in B.C.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Current federal projections: LIB🔴 47.1% / 232 seats CON🔵 32.3% / 73 NDP🟠 10.3% / 15 BQ💠 6.3% / 21 GRN🟢 2.0% / 2 Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Que s’est-il passé avec la CAQ? Jusqu’où peut-elle tomber? Et le PQ peut-il réellement décrocher une majorité avec moins du tiers des suffrages ? thenumberspod.ca/posts/que-re...
thenumberspod.ca
Que restera-t-il de la CAQ ? | The Numbers / Les chiffres
Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe se penchent sur la chute de la CAQ dans les derniers sondages. À une semaine du vote,
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The PQ is up in the latest polls, but it's the bigger CAQ slide that has changed this campaign: www.thewrit.ca/p/as-caq-sli...
thewrit.ca
CAQ slides, PQ majority odds jump
A trio of new polls out of Quebec show support for the CAQ dropping.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 46.8% (🔼0.2 since Sept. 25) / 229 seats (🔼1) CON🔵 32.6% (🔻0.2) / 75 (🔻2) NDP🟠 10.4% (🔼0.1) / 15 (=) BQ💠 6.3% (🔼0.3) / 22 (🔼1) GRN🟢 1.9% (🔻0.2) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
152
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker update: 🔵PQ 30.1% / leading in 68 seats (winning 59 on average) 🔴LIB 22.1% / 36 (34.8) ⚫CON 19.3% / 14 (14) 📘CAQ 16.9% / 1 (11.9) 🟠QS 10.4% / 8 (7.3) Full details: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker updated: 🍁Remain: 70% 🛡️Independence: 24% ❓Undecided: 7% Full breakdown and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/alberta-re...
thewrit.ca
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker
Tracking the polls ahead of Alberta's referendum on October 19.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 46.6% (= since Sept. 15) / 228 seats (🔼3) CON🔵 32.8% (🔻0.2) / 77 (🔻3) NDP🟠 10.3% (🔼0.5) / 15 (=) BQ💠 6.0% (🔻0.2) / 21 (=) GRN🟢 2.1% (🔻0.1) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
070
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Will David Eby's snap BC election call gamble pay off? And where do things stand in the Quebec election after the final debate? We break it down this week on The Numbers. Join the Patreon to listen now, ad-free! thenumberspod.ca/posts/was-it...
thenumberspod.ca
Was it a good idea for David Eby to call an election in BC? (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffres
B.C. Premier David Eby has staked his government on an early election, pitching to voters that U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to Cana
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Elections come down to a choice, but could Eby's early call make some British Columbians rethink that choice? www.thewrit.ca/p/david-eby-...
thewrit.ca
David Eby gambles his majority on snap election call
Will the B.C. NDP leader’s risky bet pay off?
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
À moins de deux semaines du scrutin, nous faisons le point sur une course toujours aussi fragmentée — et potentiellement pleine de surprises. thenumberspod.ca/posts/pq-maj...
thenumberspod.ca
PQ majoritaire, vraiment ? | The Numbers / Les chiffres
Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe décortiquent une nouvelle avalanche de sondages au Québec. Le Parti québécois demeure
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker update: 🔵PQ 28.9% / leading in 60 seats (winning 50.9 on average) 🔴LIB 21.8% / 34 (33.9) 📘CAQ 20.6% / 11 (22.9) ⚫CON 17.4% / 14 (11.9) 🟠QS 10.3% / 8 (7.4) Full details: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The PQ's support is looking stagnant, but the inability of another party to separate itself from the pack means the PQ remains on track to win. www.thewrit.ca/p/pq-remains...
thewrit.ca
PQ remains favourite to win against divided opposition
Two new polls show the PQ is stable at under 30%, but no other party is gaining steam.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker update: 🔵PQ 28.6% / leading in 61 seats (winning 48.9 on average) 🔴LIB 21.0% / 34 (33.5) 📘CAQ 21.5% / 12 (26.0) ⚫CON 17.1% / 12 (10.7) 🟠QS 10.6% / 8 (8.0) Full details: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Do Canadians want closer ties with the European Union? Plus, we look at the NDP's surprise byelection win in Alberta and David Eby's snap election opportunity in BC. thenumberspod.ca/posts/upset-...
thenumberspod.ca
An upset win in Alberta and a snap election in B.C.? (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffres
An investor’s summit, a trip to the European Union that could begin potentially closer ties in the future and, of course, there’s Donald Tru
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker update: 🔵PQ 28.5% / leading in 55 seats 🔴LIB 21.6% / 34 📘CAQ 21.9% / 20 ⚫CON 16.5% / 10 🟠QS 10.1% / 8 Full details: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The last time the Liberals' lead was as wide as today was in November 2016. www.thewrit.ca/p/carneys-li...
thewrit.ca
Carney's Liberals hit new high in projection
Polls boost the Liberals to their biggest lead over the Conservatives
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker update: 🔵PQ 28.5% / leading in 54 seats 🔴LIB 21.1% / 34 📘CAQ 22.2% / 22 ⚫CON 16.3% / 9 🟠QS 10.5% / 8 Full details: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 46.6% (🔼1.1 since Sept. 8) / 225 seats (🔼5) CON🔵 33.0% (=) / 80 (🔻3) NDP🟠 9.8% (🔻0.7) / 15 (🔻1) BQ💠 6.2% (🔻0.1) / 21 (🔻1) GRN🟢 2.2% (🔻0.2) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Le Parti québécois trône toujours en tête, mais le vote demeure hautement divisé. Que disent nos dernières projections ? thenumberspod.ca/posts/le-cal...
thenumberspod.ca
Le calme avant les débats ? | The Numbers / Les chiffres
Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent de l'avalanche de sondages qui a déferlé sur le Québec à l'approche des pre
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker updated: 🍁Remain: 66% 🛡️Independence: 24% ❓Undecided: 9% Full breakdown and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/alberta-re...
thewrit.ca
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker
Tracking the polls ahead of Alberta's referendum on October 19.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Three new polls show the PQ holding its lead but stagnating in Quebec's election campaign, while the CAQ falls back to the benefit of the Liberals. www.thewrit.ca/p/pq-lead-ho...
thewrit.ca
PQ lead holds in divided race
CAQ falls back slightly as Liberals rebound.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker updated: 🔵PQ 28.7% (🔻0.7 since Sept 8) / 47.4 seats (🔻1.7) 🔴LIB 21.5% (⬆️1.4) / 33.0 (⬆️1.6) 📘CAQ 22.1% (🔻0.6) / 29.2 (🔻1.4) ⚫CON 16.1% (=) / 9.3(⬆️0.3) 🟠QS 10.3% (=) / 8.1 (⬆️1.2) Seats leading: 57 PQ, 34 PLQ, 19 CAQ, 9 CON, 8 QS Full breakdown: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
This week on the pod, we look at a new poll that had both of us a little shocked today. Plus, where things stand in Quebec's election and what to make of last week's Ontario byelection results. Join now to listen/watch ad-free! thenumberspod.ca/posts/carney...
thenumberspod.ca
Carney gets his Trump bump (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffres
A few weeks ago we asked a question — will Mark Carney get another Trump bump? Well, we have the answer. And the answer is yes. Recent polls
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Polls show Canadians are ready for a prolonged fight with the US. Plus, what to make of the Ontario byelections last week: www.thewrit.ca/p/canadians-...
thewrit.ca
Canadians ready to hunker down for trade war
Polls continue to show little appetite for concessions.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 45.5% (🔼0.2 since Sept. 1) / 220 seats (🔼1) CON🔵 33.0% (🔻0.2) / 83 (=) NDP🟠 10.5% (🔼0.2) / 16 (=) BQ💠 6.3% (🔻0.2) / 22 (🔻1) GRN🟢 2.4% (🔼0.1) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
180
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker updated: 🔵PQ 29.4% (⬆️0.2 since Sept. 1) / 49.1 seats (⬆️5.5) 🔴LIB 20.1% (⬇️1.0) / 31.4 (⬇️1.6) 📘CAQ 22.7% (⬇️0.7) / 30.6 (⬇️4.0) ⚫CON 16.1% (⬆️0.1) / 9.0 (⬇️0.3) 🟠QS 10.3% (⬆️0.9) / 6.9 (⬆️0.4) Seats leading: 59 PQ, 35 PLQ, 17 CAQ, 9 CON, 7 QS www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
LES CHIFFRES : La campagne québécoise avance, mais les intentions de vote semblent figées. thenumberspod.ca/posts/des-ca...
thenumberspod.ca
Des campagnes sans élan, un électorat divisé ? | The Numbers / Les chiffres
La campagne québécoise avance, mais les intentions de vote semblent figées. Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe décortiqu
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
The PQ improves its position in the projection, but is still far from a majority. My look at the Quebec election campaign as it enters its second full week: www.thewrit.ca/p/quebec-rac...
thewrit.ca
Quebec race settling in ahead of second full week of the campaign
The early movement in the polls has subsided, but the campaign remains a knife-fight.
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Reposted by Éric Grenier
Air Quotes Media @airquotesmedia.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
🆕 Join @kronellenfitsch.bsky.social and @gabederoche.bsky.social in the lab as they look under the microscope with this week's "loaded question": When is a by-election a turning point? Featuring @ericgrenier.bsky.social.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
This week on The Numbers, we break down the results of Monday's byelections, Quebec's election and new polls out of Alberta. Plus, member mailbag! Join here to listen to the extended episode: thenumberspod.ca/posts/libera...
thenumberspod.ca
Liberals deal Poilievre a blow in byelections (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffres
Mark Carney’s Liberals scored three big wins in Monday’s byelections, taking a seat from the Conservatives and dealing the party another blo
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Three byelections down, six more to go. How the next round of byelections look, plus what to watch in Ontario's votes today and what the heck is happening with the BC Conservatives? www.thewrit.ca/p/how-the-ne...
thewrit.ca
How the next round of byelections are shaping up
Six seats will be up for grabs within the next six months, with all four parties having ridings to defend.
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Reposted by Éric Grenier
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
My takes on the byelection results: www.thewrit.ca/p/liberals-s...
thewrit.ca
Liberals sweep, Conservatives weep
Liberals take all three byelections as Conservative vote slides
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
My takes on the byelection results: www.thewrit.ca/p/liberals-s...
thewrit.ca
Liberals sweep, Conservatives weep
Liberals take all three byelections as Conservative vote slides
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
La campagne québécoise est officiellement lancée, et la course s’est resserrée dès la ligne de départ. thenumberspod.ca/posts/la-caq...
thenumberspod.ca
La CAQ est en hausse, mais... | The Numbers / Les chiffres
La campagne québécoise est officiellement lancée, et la course s’est resserrée dès la ligne de départ. Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres,
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 45.3% (🔼0.7 since Aug. 25) / 219 seats (🔻3) CON🔵 33.2% (🔼0.4) / 83 (🔼2) NDP🟠 10.3% (🔻0.8) / 16 (=) BQ💠 6.5% (🔼0.3) / 23 (🔼1) GRN🟢 2.3% (🔻0.3) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
060
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker updated: 🍁Remain: 69% 🛡️Independence: 25% ❓Undecided: 7% Full breakdown and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/alberta-re...
thewrit.ca
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker
Tracking the polls ahead of Alberta's referendum on October 19.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Quebec Election Tracker updated: 🔵PQ 29% / 48 seats (↘️2) 📘CAQ 23% / 24 (=) 🔴LIB 21% / 36 (=) ⚫CON 16% / 11 (↗️1) 🟠QS 9% / 8 (↗️1) Odds: 2% PQ Majority (-1) 66% PQ Minority (+1) 31% CAQ Most Seats (+1) Full breakdown: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
061
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Quebec Election Tracker updated: 🔵PQ 29% (↘️1%) / 50 seats (↘️13) 📘CAQ 24% (↗️1%) / 24 (↗️10) 🔴LIB 21% (↘️1%) / 36 (↗️2) ⚫CON 16% (↗️1%) / 10 (↗️1) 🟠QS 9% (=) / 7 (=) Odds: 3% PQ Majority 65% PQ Minority 29% CAQ Most Seats Full breakdown: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
081
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker updated: 🍁Remain: 70% (+6 since Aug 14) 🛡️Independence: 26% (-4) ❓Undecided: 4% (-2) Full breakdown and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/alberta-re...
thewrit.ca
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker
Tracking the polls ahead of Alberta's referendum on October 19.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Why the Quebec election is so unpredictable, what to make of last week's narrative-resetting poll, and a look at what could be the most contested region in the province. www.thewrit.ca/p/an-unpredi...
thewrit.ca
An unpredictable campaign begins
Even a small change in voting intentions could have a big impact on Quebec’s election.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Quebec Election Tracker updated: 🔵PQ 29.9% (↘️0.8 since Aug. 25) / 63 seats (↘️7) 📘CAQ 22.8% (↗️2.3%) / 14 (↗️7) 🔴LIB 22.0% (↘️1.6) / 34 (↘️1) ⚫CON 15.4% (↘️0.1) / 9 (=) 🟠QS 8.6% (↗️0.1) / 7 (↗️1) Odds: 11% PQ Majority 68% PQ Minority 20% CAQ Min 1% CAQ Maj Full breakdown: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
1101
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Carnet gets his elbows back up (and the polls are likely to follow), plus what to watch in Monday's federal byelections. www.thewrit.ca/p/carneys-el...
thewrit.ca
Carney’s elbows are back up where Canadians already had theirs
Plus, what to watch in Monday’s federal byelections.
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Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The Numbers is back (a day early)! We break down the latest polls on how Canadians are reacting to the trade fight with the US. Plus, we do our over/unders for Monday's byelections and chat about the Quebec election, which is kicking off tomorrow. Watch ad-free here: thenumberspod.ca/posts/will-c...
thenumberspod.ca
Will Carney get another Trump bump? (video) | The Numbers / Les chiffres
It’s been a tumultuous week on the U.S. trade relations file, as negotiations fell apart, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were threatened an
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Reposted by Éric Grenier
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The PQ is the favourite to win the upcoming Quebec election, but there is a lot of uncertainty heading into this campaign. To follow the ups and downs of the polls, you can follow The Writ's newly launched Quebec Election Tracker: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
0111
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The Writ's vote and seat projection has been updated: LIB🔴 44.6% (🔻0.5 since Aug. 10) / 222 seats (🔼5) CON🔵 32.8% (🔻0.5) / 81 (🔻6) NDP🟠 11.1% (🔼0.8) / 16 (=) BQ💠 6.2% (🔼0.2) / 22 (🔼1) GRN🟢 2.6% (🔻0.2) / 2 (=) Full breakdowns and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections
What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?
071
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The PQ is the favourite to win the upcoming Quebec election, but there is a lot of uncertainty heading into this campaign. To follow the ups and downs of the polls, you can follow The Writ's newly launched Quebec Election Tracker: www.thewrit.ca/p/the-writs-...
thewrit.ca
The Writ's Quebec Election Tracker
Tracking the polls and projecting likely outcomes of the Oct. 5 election in Quebec
0111
Éric Grenier @ericgrenier.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker updated: 🍁Remain: 64% 🛡️Independence: 30% ❓Undecided: 6% Full breakdown and tracking charts: www.thewrit.ca/p/alberta-re...
thewrit.ca
Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker
Tracking the polls ahead of Alberta's referendum on October 19.
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