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Future Economy Scotland

@futureeconscot.bsky.social
2.7K followers 407 following 659 posts

A non-partisan think tank that aims to create a new economy that is democratic, sustainable and just. www.futureeconomy.scot

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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 10h
How can Scotland close its looming fiscal gap to strengthen public services and deliver on its ambitions? Last week, our Senior Economist @hannawheatley.bsky.social spoke at the Scottish Government’s Tax Conference making the case for tax reform. Read more: www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Our economist @jujupepe.bsky.social gave evidence to the Scottish Parliament on Scotland’s just transition and the future of green jobs. Watch the clip below👇 And read our report, Delivering a Just Transition for Scotland’s Fossil Fuel Workers, for more: www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
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Juanpe Castro @jujupepe.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
This week I gave evidence to the Scottish Parliament' on the sustainability of Scotland's tax and spending plans. A short snippet below on why the government should not just invest ScotWind revenues strategically through a wealth fund, but also take public equity stakes in future ScotWind rounds.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Read our ScotWind report to learn more about how Scotland could capture the wealth created from its offshore wind. www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
futureeconomy.scot
Rethinking ScotWind: Maximising Scotland’s Offshore Wind Potential
Reforming the leasing process to secure a better deal for taxpayers, workers and supply chains.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
More than 75% of planned ScotWind capacity is owned by parent companies outside the UK. Here our economist @jujupepe.bsky.social gives evidence to the Scottish Parliament on how Scotland could capture more of the wealth created off our coast to secure long-term returns for the people of Scotland.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Our report, 'Rethinking ScotWind', called on the Scottish Government to take minority public equity stakes in future projects to ensure benefits are shared more widely. Read the report ⬇️
futureeconomy.scot
Rethinking ScotWind: Maximising Scotland’s Offshore Wind Potential
Reforming the leasing process to secure a better deal for taxpayers, workers and supply chains.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Last year our research with @cmmonwealth.bsky.social found that 75%+ of planned capacity is owned by parent companies outside the UK. This means the majority of profits will flow overseas rather than be reinvested in Scotland. Explore our interactive map 👉 www.futureeconomy.scot/scotwind
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Audit Scotland’s new report echoes many of the shortcomings we identified with the ScotWind offshore wind leasing round. But more can be done to ensure the wealth generated by Scotland's offshore wind is widely shared. Read our full response: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/447-re...
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Prof Matt Hannon @matthannon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Courtesy of @futureeconscot.bsky.social a great wee map outlining who owns Scotland's offshore wind. www.futureeconomy.scot/scotwind
futureeconomy.scot
Future Economy Scotland
Future Economy Scotland is a non-partisan think tank that aims to create a new economy that is democratic, sustainable and just. We believe that Scotland cannot overcome the intertwined challenge...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Our map created w/@cmmonwealth.bsky.social traces ScotWind projects to their ultimate shareholders. Revealing: 🌍 75%+ of planned capacity is owned by parent companies outside the UK 🛢️ Six major fossil fuel companies have stakes covering 25% See who owns ScotWind: www.futureeconomy.scot/scotwind
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Scotland’s offshore wind is one of our greatest national assets. Tomorrow, Audit Scotland will report on how the ScotWind leasing round was run - putting fresh attention on who stands to benefit from the wealth our offshore wind creates.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Our latest blog by @miriambrett.bsky.social sets out an alternative: raising revenue, strengthening public sector capabilities, maximising returns on public money, and enhancing borrowing powers to build a greener, fairer and more resilient Scotland. Read: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/652-cl...
futureeconomy.scot
Closing Scotland’s fiscal gap: There is an alternative
Learning lessons from the past to put Scotland’s public finances on a more sustainable path
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Decisions about how to close budget gaps, and who will bear the costs, are political choices, not fiscal inevitabilities. How the Scottish Government responds to its fiscal crunch will shape Scotland’s economy for years to come, and lessons must be learned from austerity.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Real-terms capital budget reductions and planned reductions to the public sector workforce are coinciding with increased need for a step-change in public spending and investment – all while operating in a constrained fiscal framework with limited borrowing powers.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Scotland’s new Programme for Government offers the clearest picture yet of the Scottish Government’s plans for the next five years. While there was much to welcome, Scotland’s looming fiscal gap was the elephant in the room.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Scotland's oil and gas workforce shrunk by more than a quarter in a decade. But our analysis shows the green energy workforce could grow by around 40,000 jobs by 2030. Here we set out why North Sea decline makes accelerating the green transition more urgent: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/619-fo...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The First Minister has made eradicating child poverty his defining goal, but the Programme for Government did not rise to the scale of the challenge. Read our full response to the Scottish Government's poverty agenda: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/414-re...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The Programme for Government includes some welcome measures on climate change, but elsewhere ambitious rhetoric is not matched by concrete policy. Read our full response to the Scottish Government's climate change agenda: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/383-re...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
While aspects of the Programme for Government are commendable, relying on optimistic efficiencies to close the budget gap poses serious risks. Read our full response: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/382-fe...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Later today, the Scottish Government will publish its Programme for Government. Now is not the time for business as usual. Read our recent report setting out policy priorities for the new Parliament 👇 www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
futureeconomy.scot
Scotland's Just Transition: Priorities for the new Parliament
Our assessment of the key policy priorities for the new parliamentary term.
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Juanpe Castro @jujupepe.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Drilling in Rosebank and Jackdaw will not deliver energy security or an economic boost for UK households. Our latest @futureeconscot.bsky.social blog argues the North Sea is in long-term decline and only a rapid transition to green energy can deliver a prosperous, resilient future.
futureeconomy.scot
Four reasons more drilling won't save the North Sea
Sustained economic prosperity and energy security will only come from a green transition.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
NEW: Four reasons more drilling won't save the North Sea Our latest blog looks at why the economic case for further drilling doesn't stack up. And why long-term prosperity instead depends on accelerating the transition to green energy. Read in full: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/619-fo...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Our recent report, 'Funding Scotland's Future', set out tax reforms that could raise £2.3bn a year – helping to close the budget gap while creating a fairer and more efficient tax system. Read the report:
futureeconomy.scot
Funding Scotland’s Future: Tax Reform for a Just Transition
Our plan for using devolved fiscal powers to create a fairer, greener Scotland.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Scotland’s short-term funding boost masks a looming fiscal crunch. Public service reform alone won’t close the gap – tax rises are needed to protect services. Read our full response to the latest @scotfisccomm.bsky.social update: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/381-re...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The fact that Scotland is closing the gap with the UK is genuinely good news. But after nearly two decades of squeezed incomes, this parliament must take bold steps to boost living standards. Read our recent election spotlight blog to find our more:
futureeconomy.scot
Election Spotlight: Improving living standards
Scots have been squeezed by a pincer movement of weak wage growth and rising prices.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
One notable exception: Aberdeen City was in the bottom 20% of UK local authorities, growing just 5.6%. That's the tail end of a longer story of gradual decline of oil and gas that is still working its way through the local economy.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
In 2024, Local authorities outside the central belt have outperformed. Six of the UK's top ten fastest-growing LAs in 2024 were Scottish: Angus, North & South Ayrshire, Orkney, Argyll and Bute, and the Scottish Borders – all above 8.2% nominal growth.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Zooming out: since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999, Scotland's GDHI growth has outperformed every English region except London.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
GDHI = Gross Disposable Household Income. It measures what households actually have to spend and save per head – income after tax and after welfare payments.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Income per head grew faster in Scotland in 2024 than in the rest of the UK 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 GDHI per head grew 7.2% to £24,283 – now 93.5% of the UK average, up from a low of 91.3% in 2018. Scotland grew faster than every UK region except Northern Ireland. 🧵
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Big claims need strong evidence. After Dan Neidle's analysis made headlines, @lmacfarlane.bsky.social challenged the evidence. Dan responded. Now Laurie revisits the debate and explains why the evidence remains less conclusive than many reports suggest. www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/589-a-...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
A just transition isn't only about replacing jobs. It's about creating good jobs, strengthening domestic industries & ensuring economic benefits of the transition stay in Scotland. Read the full briefing by @hannawheatley.bsky.social & @jujupepe.bsky.social www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
futureeconomy.scot
Scotland's Just Transition: Priorities for the new Parliament
Our assessment of the key policy priorities for the new parliamentary term.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
🤝 Ensure the jobs created through the transition are good jobs, embedding Fair Work principles 🇬🇧 Work more closely with the UK Government to align industrial, energy and labour market policy
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
🏭 Strengthen Scotland's Green Industrial Strategy through a more mission-oriented approach 👷 Develop a comprehensive workforce transition strategy for workers in carbon-intensive industries
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In our last instalment, we explored the poverty and inequality priorities for Scotland's new Parliament. This week, we're turning to the labour market and economy. Take a look at our 4 priorities below. 🧵
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Read the new briefing by David Avern and explore the full set of proposals. www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
futureeconomy.scot
Funding Scotland’s Future: Tax Reform for a New Parliament
Our fiscal priorities for the new Scottish Parliamentary term.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Our new briefing, Funding Scotland's Future: Tax Reform for a New Parliament, sets out a package of credible reforms ...that could raise around £2.3 billion a year, while creating a fairer and more efficient tax system.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
If Scotland is to safeguard public services, maintain its social contract and deliver a just transition, it is clear that more revenue must be raised through taxation.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Rising demand for health, social care and social security, combined with squeezed UK Government spending, is placing unprecedented pressure on devolved budgets.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Funding Scotland's future starts with an honest conversation about tax. Scotland's new Parliament faces the most challenging fiscal outlook since the creation of devolution.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
And read our follow up response to Dan Neidle’s reply, expanding on our original critique. The debate over tax in Scotland should be based on evidence, not speculative modelling and media hype.
futureeconomy.scot
A response to Dan Neidle: Tax doesn’t always explain everything
The case for being honest about what we simply do not know.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Read our full critique of the claim that Scotland’s 48% tax lost revenue here. We show it is built on shaky assumptions that don’t align with the historical data.
futureeconomy.scot
Has Scotland’s 48% tax rate really reduced public revenue?
The media should take note: a modelled hypothesis is not the same as definitive proof.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Did Scotland’s 48% income tax really lose revenue rather than raise it? Our Co-Director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social spoke to Holyrood Sources podcast about why the claim doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Watch the full discussion (from 20 mins): youtu.be/j03__bAAOGk?...
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Tax policy should be informed by robust evidence rather than over-interpreted modelling or misleading headlines. You can read our full analysis by our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social here: www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/587-ha...
futureeconomy.scot
Has Scotland’s 48% tax rate really reduced public revenue?
The media should take note: a modelled hypothesis is not the same as definitive proof.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
This also raises a broader question. If the 48% rate was only ever expected to raise around £8m, was it the right way to pursue Scotland's wider tax policy objectives? We explore that in the article.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
It's therefore difficult to conclude that Scotland's 48% rate has definitively reduced tax revenues. The evidence is considerably more uncertain than many headlines suggested.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
None of this proves there has been no behavioural response to higher tax rates. There almost certainly has been. The point is that the available evidence cannot tell us with confidence what the revenue effect has been.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
This matters because small, entirely plausible changes to the model's assumptions can substantially change the estimated revenue effect. Under some scenarios, the estimated revenue loss disappears altogether.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Using an alternative HMRC dataset leads to the same conclusion. Growth in Scotland's highest incomes has historically been much more volatile than elsewhere in the UK.
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Future Economy Scotland @futureeconscot.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Historical HMRC data show that growth in Scotland's top incomes has often differed markedly from the rest of the UK - including before Scotland adopted different income tax rates. That makes simple comparisons much less reliable.
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