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Doug Fuller

@fudaoge.bsky.social
695 followers 943 following 54 posts

assoc prof at Copenhagen Business School

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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
yes, an increase of all pre-April 8 tariffs so *only* 24% increase. BUT there are lots of other tariffs. 301 tariffs (eg semiconductors, solar components, tungsten) stack on top of current and future snap-back tariffs whereas 232 tariffs (eg tariffs on Chinese cars) do not
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
so if Chinese yuan is undervalued vs USD by nine percent, then Trump just agreed to have higher effective tariffs inclusive of currency devaluation on US exports going to China (19.9%) than Chinese exports going to the US (18.3%)
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Reposted by Doug Fuller
Graham Webster @gwbstr.com · 01/05/2025
This thread is now a blog post, in which I discover that some of the language people find encouraging was just reused from that time China's spokesperson called reports of talks "fake news"! open.substack.com/pub/gwbstr/p...
open.substack.com
Are hopes of US-China trade talks overblown?
Some of the most optimistic language just rehashes China's fiercest denial
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
"Lorain County, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump in November’s election, is keeping the faith." 🧐Trump actually won just 52% of vote there "Even some Democrats support the idea of tariffs." No kidding! Sherrod Brown (D) is 1 and won Lorain www.ft.com/content/d233...
ft.com
‘Stuff should be made here’: Ohio shrugs off Trump tariff turmoil
Company owners say the president’s measures will result in more manufacturing in the US
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
@cqchoi.com comments on that Nature article below
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
6/and I don't see any reason this will be different. The multiple masking that SMIC is doing has a much better chance of getting there, since at some point they can just eat the cost.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
5/the thin semiconducting film rather than define the length with lithography. They did a nice job of talking about the tools they built to design the processor, but the actual tested circuits were pieces. Yield reliability of a new material has rarely made it against super scaled CMOS
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
4/Like many academic papers these days there is a lot of exaggeration. The technical contribution was an integrated processor fo 2-D transistors. Essentially since the channel is vertical they can define the channel length which is the distance the charge has to travel with deposition of
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
3/talked to EE professor who is an expert in semiconductors about the paper
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
2/this research came from this paper in Nature
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
1/last week SCMP made big claims about major milestone in China's chip research www.scmp.com/news/china/s...
scmp.com
World’s first 1-nanometre RISC-V chip made in China with 2D materials
China’s chip industry has reached a major milestone after scientists developed the world’s most complex semiconductor microprocessor.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
1/
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
substack.com/@dougfuller1...
substack.com
Doug Fuller on Substack
as far as anyone without access to the contract details can tell, Trump administration doesn’t have much if any leeway in cancelling payments as long as the milestones are hit so this aspect of the po...
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Yes Autor correct up to a pt but there is still the problem of the structurally oversaving nations depending on open trade/finance economies to run trade deficits (overconsume&underproduce).Targeted policies only shift sectoral specialization, do not solve underproduction nytimes.com/2025/03/18/b...
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
I'm writing a screenplay––possibly based on true events–– about how Trump is actually a puppet of Canada's Liberal Party. I'm calling it The Manitoba Candidate www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2025/...
nwprogressive.org
Thanks to Donald Trump, Canada's Liberal Party suddenly looks competitive in the upcoming federal election - NPI's Cascadia Advocate
For more than a year, Canada's Conservatives have appeared to be on a glide path to forming the nation's next government. But Donald Trump's return and the trade war that he started have changed that.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
LSE International Development blog post on our new book @gerhardschnyder.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationa...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Are State-Owned Enterprises Instruments of the State or Autonomous Agents?
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are often considered instruments of the state, established to implement government policy. Based on various empirical examples, guest bloggers Olivier Butzbach, Dougl…
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
One week left for FREE download of this book!
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Gerhard Schnyder @gerhardschnyder.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
⚠️ You think State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are instruments of the state? Think again!....or read our brand new Cambridge Elements on 'State-owned Enterprises as Institutional Actors.' 📯 🔊 Now available for free download for two weeks: www.cambridge.org/core/element...
cambridge.org
State-Owned Enterprises as Institutional Actors in Contemporary Capitalism and Beyond
Cambridge Core - Governance - State-Owned Enterprises as Institutional Actors in Contemporary Capitalism and Beyond
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
World-class legislative trolling by Democrats in OH legislature: introduced bill to ban men from ejaculating unless intent on conception, exemptions for sperm donation, LGBTQ+ and masturbation. Highlighting hypocrisy of the right in controlling women's bodies. www.cleveland19.com/2025/02/14/o...
cleveland19.com
Ohio lawmakers plan to propose ‘The Conception begins at Erection Act’
Two state lawmakers are planning to introduce a bill that they’ve nicknamed the Conception Begins at Erection Act.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
My new piece in Nikkei Asia: asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Deep...
asia.nikkei.com
DeepSeek's AI 'breakthrough' isn't what it seems
Chinese company's so-called efficiency gains don't eliminate need for massive AI compute
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
2/or rather Taiwan's fiscal probity is not actually a good thing. Taiwan could use more spending on fiscal base. Taiwan's current expenditures as %GDP are lower than any OECD country and half that of the OECD average
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-... 1/Interesting piece (unfortunately no direct way to post it to bluesky though the blog has direct posting function to that other social media app) but on one minor point, I would disagree that these moves threaten to undermine Taiwan's fiscal discipline
kharistempleman.com
Taiwan Is on the Brink of a Constitutional Crisis
And maybe a fiscal one, too. And no, it has nothing to do with China.
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Mike Pesca @milkepescs.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
The golden age of trusting everything you read on Facebook is over.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
"sources said the Chinese government is responsible for the suspensions of worker deployments and equipment exports." Hmmm sounds like the Chinese government is quite worried about emerging competition from India. restofworld.org/2025/china-f...
restofworld.org
Exclusive: Foxconn stops sending Chinese workers to India iPhone factories
In addition, equipment shipments are delayed, potentially disrupting next-generation iPhone production in India.
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Reposted by Doug Fuller
Will Oremus @willoremus.com · 10/01/2025
Oof! First reference to Bluesky in the U.S. Supreme Court comes from Justice Elena Kagan, who uses it as an example of how it isn't just TikTok that has "black box" algorithms, all the social media sites do. Valid argument, bad example—Bluesky's algorithms are open-source.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Baldwin squaring trade economics w/geopolitics "comparative adv necessitates a nuanced re-evaluation. While efficiency remains a critical metric, policy makers must now weigh this against the risks w/overreliance on ...adversarial trading partners" www.linkedin.com/pulse/compar...
linkedin.com
Is comparative advantage valid in a geopolitical world?
Richard Baldwin, IMD, 3 January 2025, Factful Friday. Introduction.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
RIP David Lodge I originally thought his hilarious trilogy was satire but then I went to work in British academia and came to realize it was just Geertzian thick description of the reality of British academic life www.theguardian.com/books/2025/j...
theguardian.com
David Lodge, Campus Trilogy novelist and academic, dies aged 89
The author of more than two dozen books is best known for his trio set in a fictionalised version of the University of Birmingham, where he worked from 1960 to 1987
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Biden blocks US Steel acquisition due to United Steelworkers' opposition to the deal www.wsj.com/business/dea...
wsj.com
Biden Blocks Sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel
The yearlong campaign by the Japanese steelmaker for a $14.1 billion deal crashed against opposition to foreign ownership from political leaders and the United Steelworkers union.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Enjoyed presenting today at @uoft.bsky.social Innovation Policy Lab brown bag on American chip export controls against China. Thanks to David Wolfe for hosting.
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Delighted to have the opportunity to speak at the US-China Seminar Series at the LSE Phelan United States Centre this afternoon. The title of my talk is "From unilateral failure to multilateral success? The evolution of American chip controls on China."
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
3/OTOH the same evasion of controls by American semiconductor capital equipment firms via Southeast Asia production sites was allegedly also going on for Cymer, the American subsidiary of ASML, via Korea
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
2/of course, the piece missed that the de minimis on lithography was already lowered to zero in October 2023
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
1/with new export controls scheduled to be announced soon–– today (?),it will be interesting to see if the loopholes outlined in this piece will be addressed semianalysis.com/2024/10/28/f...
semianalysis.com
Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctions
Huawei Fab Network, WFE Vendors Cry Wolf, Framework for Future Controls AI competitiveness is a key national security concern. When “expert-level science and engineering” or even AGI are possible o…
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
2/make up 1/3 of Japanese market and only locally produced since not really a market elsewhere for them) and the ever undervalued yen
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
1/actually the Big Three made steering wheel on the right cars in Australia (GM Holden) and Europe. But why design for an impenetrable market anyway? Japanese auto market's import penetration was and remain low–– 1995: 5% 2010 4% 2023 7.7%. Not tariffs, just NTBs (tax-advantages for kei cars that
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 08/06/2024
asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Chin...
asia.nikkei.com
China 'legacy' chip fears best addressed with targeted measures
Focus on EVs and other areas of concern more workable than broad import ban
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 24/01/2024
5/imo research making claims about China's past success and/or future development performance that does not take into account the bad as well as the good (the further back in time, the more good it did) of Chinese-style financial repression is basically deficient
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 24/01/2024
4/see for example this Lowy Institute report comparing China's trajectory with Korea, Taiwan and Japan and occasionally other high-performing Asian economies: www.lowyinstitute.org/publications...
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 24/01/2024
3/despite pockets of innovation before and since, the overall system has been so inefficient that these innovation bright spots have been insufficient to keep China from being dragged down to a lower growth trajectory than the hi-growth, Northeast Asian trajectory many then&even now assume it is on
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 24/01/2024
2/ my own contribution from 8 years ago was to point out that Chinese-style financial repression with bias towards SOEs was not generally going to be a successful development strategy: academic.oup.com/book/12648
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 24/01/2024
as @hofrench.bsky.social notes, the financial repression + demographics story has been long known by China "bears" foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/23/c...
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
2/
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
@drodrik.bsky.social given Larry S's "stellar" public policy track record, does his board seat at OpenAI mean we're doomed to reach singularity next year?
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 28/11/2023
In a new paper, Elkobi and I scrape the most comprehensive local govt & LGFV bond issuance data of 35K issuance and finds over 50 trillion RMB in local bonds outstanding. For 12 provinces, monthly debt servicing is over 100% of monthly revenue. For 15 provinces over 50% of monthly revenue 1/2
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 28/11/2023
5/I definitely was NOT there in 1974 at the first Suicide practices in a loft in New York City working on the organ sounds with much patience. BUT I was there in TW where they vowed they'd never move NB production to China & then the next year in plants in Jiangsu after they did
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 28/11/2023
4/the engineering manager Li in this article understands this fact too well, possibly because he witnessed first hand the localization of what were once Taiwanese-heavy managerial ranks at electronics 台商 in China
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Doug Fuller @fudaoge.bsky.social · 28/11/2023
3/their arguments (eg Caroline Freund) are ridiculously preliminary. what happened in China over the last 20+ years can happen again (and it does not need to all happen in just one other country). Taiwanese figured out how to manufacture efficiently in China&gradually localized the suppliers/staff
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