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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Cadamuro and Papadia ‘Did the 2022 energy inflation surge dent European Central Bank and Fed credibility? Evidence across horizons,’ Working Paper 22/2026, Bruegel, doi.org/10.64153/RXB... ECB and Fed ran risks with their response to the inflation surge caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

doi.org

Did the 2022 energy inflation surge dent European Central Bank and Fed credibility? Evidence across horizons

Inflation expectations show that the ECB and Fed stayed credible after the 2022 energy shock, despite euro-area short-term weakness and US drift

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

These are the notes I prepared for a TV interview today before the ECB press conference. moneymatters-monetarypolicy.eu/wp-admin/pos...

moneymatters-monetarypolicy.eu

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

US Treasury 10 year bond yield: 4.717; Italy: 4.090; Greece 3.944. The US Treasury must pay investors 70 to 80 bp more than the most indebted European countries to fund its deficit. This tells something about Greece and Italy but more about the US currency, its credit and expected inflation.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

moneymatters-monetarypolicy.eu/portfolio/co... I presented my views on macro-developments, transatlantic relationships and European defence to a group of investors in London. My metaphor is that Europe is like an elephant: a not aggressive herbivore, but not to be messed up.

moneymatters-monetarypolicy.eu

Speeches and Presentations | Money matters? Perspectives on Monetary Policy

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

What implications for financial stability from the recent news that Blackstone, Cliffwaters and Blue Owl have limited withdrawals from their private funds? Any worrying analogy with August 2007 when BNP Paribas suspended withdrawals from three of its investment funds?

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

A sequel of good news: #Meloni lost her referendum, #Orban is out, carrying #Vance into the defeat, the gulf between MAGA and European right-wing populists is broadening, and the #Pope speaks for many. Right-wing populists are still a big threat, but they are not invincible.

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Bruegel @bruegel.org · 18/03/2026

🌍 Italy and Europe 📉 Slow growth, high debt and the paradox of Giorgia Meloni 🔴 In this episode of The Sound of Economics, @rebeccawire.bsky.social talks about the economy & politics of Italy with Bruegel’s @manumourlon.bsky.social & @francz.bsky.social. 👂 Listen to the podcast: buff.ly/Evp6eYn

bruegel.org

Italy and Europe

Slow growth, high debt and the paradox of Giorgia Meloni

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Reposted by Francesco PAPADIA

Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Until morale improves.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

#Lagarde gives a long list of one-hand/on-the-other-hand considerations, with little indication of what the net is. Maybe this is inevitable in current conditions.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

#Trump is: reducing good supply, through tariffs; reducing labour supply, through immigration; increasing aggregate demand, with fiscal policy; welcoming a weak dollar; weakening FED's resolve to fight inflation, with continuous calls to reduce rates. How can this not lead to inflation?

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

Is what #Trump did with #Venezuela a harbinger of what he could do with #Greenland? Unlikely but not impossible. The EU should be ready for the unlikely event.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

One controversial thought: the clearer #Trump (the US?) is in his despise for Europe, the better. Even the most convinced Atlanticist will be convinced that we must now all become Gaullists.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Bruegel recently republished an essay written with Leonardo Cadamuro: www.bruegel.org/external-pub.... We try to dispel the despondency too often affecting Europeans and sapping their actions.

bruegel.org

Forty years of European History: Crisis, Resilience, Development and Opportunity

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

The EU has been hit in the last few decades by 3 raw material shocks: oil in the 1970s, gas in 2022 and now rare earths. They overcame the 2nd shock faster than the 1st one. Is the 3rd one more similar to the 1st or the 2nd? How do the 3 shocks compare in size and substitutability?

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

I see similarities between the weaponisation of the $ by the US and the weaponisation of rare earths by China: both are effective in the short to medium run, both incentivise alternatives, weakening their effect, in the medium to long run. Would be interesting to see which effect will fade faster.

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Bruegel @bruegel.org · 27/08/2025

⏳ How long will the #tariff madness last? 🤔 With discussion turning away from changing the US' tariffs towards predicting how long they will last, are there grounds for optimism? 🖊️ By @francz.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/O5NGr2Y #EconSky

buff.ly

How long will the tariff madness last?

Pessimists argue Trump’s tariffs are here to stay; optimists argue that governments have limited ability to inflict pain on their electorates

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

With the tariff agreement with the US and now with the Trump-Putin meeting on Ukraine, the EU is suffering unavoidable but painful humiliations. This is the precondition for understanding that we must further our unity and strengthen our independence. Humiliations can provide strong incentives.

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Bruegel @bruegel.org · 30/07/2025

WE ARE HIRING! Bruegel is looking for a skilled Operations Assistant for its office in Brussels to undertake various day-to-day office and operations tasks. 🔗 Apply before Wednesday 13th August 2025, 23:59 CET: www.bruegel.org/careers/oper...

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

1 Tariffs worsen growth and inflation; 2 Increasing tariffs is contrary to the long trend towards free trade; 3 All commentary considers the increased level of tariffs as persistent. 3 is not consistent with 1 and 2. Can the mid-term elections, or the next presidential election, reduce tariffs?

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 19/06/2025

Two optimistic, maybe wrong, interpretations. 1. An extreme political shock favoured the US's traditional populist soul against its liberal one, and Roth's Plot Against America has become real, but will not last. 2. Europe is forced to surpass colonialism and the two World Wars and become an adult.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

#Lagarde is very confident that inflation is stabilizing at 2.0%

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

#Lagarde confirms that tariffs negatively affect growth and push inflation lower, so no stagflation, unlike in the US.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

There is a common feature in French, Canadian, Australian and Romanian elections: confronted with a possible win by an extreme right party, electors choose the candidate best able to defeat it. Unfortunate exceptions are: Italy, Hungary, Israel.

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Bruegel @bruegel.org · 13/05/2025

🔍 The ECB’s Digital Euro and new operational framework: is there an overlap? 📅 2 June 2025 12:30-13:45 CEST Join @rebeccawire.bsky.social , Ulrich Bindseil & Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau of @ecb.europa.eu , @francz.bsky.social & Alberto Franco Pozzolo for this conversation! 🔗 Sign up: buff.ly/qoDnKtB

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Reposted by Francesco PAPADIA

Bruegel @bruegel.org · 05/05/2025

🤝 UK-EU relations With the London Summit approaching, on the agenda so far for a post-Brexit reset are defence, trade, and a possible youth mobility scheme. 🪙 Time to add finance? 🖊️ Jesper Berg, @rebeccawire.bsky.social @hansgeeroms.bsky.social @francz.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/PknBeg9 #EconSky

buff.ly

Make finance part of the EU-UK post-Brexit reset

The EU and UK should address issues with the clearing and settlement industry and letterbox firms

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

projects.collect.msf-azg.be/fundraisers/... I am training to get to the finish in a decent time, but I am still far from my donation objectives. Please sponsor me and help me help Medecins Sans Frontières.

projects.collect.msf-azg.be

Brussels 20km 2025

Hello, I'm running the 20km of Brussels for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). Please sponsor me! The donations collected will be used to support various projects and ensure the continuity of MSF's act...

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

I sensed a tension in #Lagarde's press conference today: -It is clear that tariffs are imparting a negative demand shock, while there is no clear inflation impact -Monetary policy will remain meeting by meeting without a clear path. An indication of a downward path would have been justified.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

The most important message in #Trump's backdown on tariffs is not that he suspended some of them but that the market can force a change. I expect more of this going forward, also regarding China, as both Xi and Trump must reckon with market consequences.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

#Europe has the chance to become the global leader of reasonability as the US under #Trump pursues extravagant, damaging policies for the US and the world. Will Europe rise to the challenge?

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

How much pain can a democratically elected politician can impose on his/her country? Truss# was stopped before it could produce too much damage. How long will Trump# be allowed to ruin his country and the world before he is stopped?

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Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

This is, in my opinion, ground enough to terminate all EU interactions with anything musky.

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Guntram Wolff @guntramwolff.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

A great piece explaining how US tariffs on Canadian imports lead to higher prices and less choice - exemplified by drum kits produced by two branches of a family separated decades ago & producing the same product in Canada & the US. Cullen Hendrix @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

piie.com

US tariffs could crash the market for North American drummers

North America’s two largest cymbal producers share a family lineage and approaches to cymbal making. What they don’t share is a country of origin. One is US-based, the other Canadian. The similarities...

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Reposted by Francesco PAPADIA

Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

Cowards be cowards.

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French Aid to Europe 🇫🇷🇪🇺 @aidefranceukr.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

“What we need today is to produce more Rafales, more air defence systems, more ammunition. We need to desensitise several countries from their dependence on the F-35 and expand the Rafale club.”

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Europe Street News @europestreet.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

Editorial @elpais.com after yesterday's pro-Europe demonstration in Rome: "For Europe - The time has come for citizens to unite to defend eight decades of social and democratic conquestss. Europe is suffering the biggest offensive in history since the defeat of Nazism..." elpais.com/opinion/2025...

elpais.com

Por Europa

Ha llegado el momento de que la ciudadanía se una para defender ocho décadas de conquistas sociales y democráticas

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Reposted by Francesco PAPADIA

Bruegel @bruegel.org · 11/03/2025

💭 China’s ‘two sessions’ points to determination to rebuff Trump ⛔ In this First glance, @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social dissects the recently held National People's Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. What will this mean for Europe? 🔗 buff.ly/Wih14BE #EconSky

buff.ly

China’s ‘two sessions’ points to determination to rebuff Trump

The government plans to increase the fiscal deficit, lower inflation rates and increase manufacturing capacity whilst supporting critical technologies

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Two new heroes in the European Union Pantheon: Putin reinforced NATO, Trump reinforced non-US Nato.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Lagarde: Quantitative Tightening is working in the background and not part of monetary policy.

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Reposted by Francesco PAPADIA

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 06/03/2025

Public support for the #euro reached historically high levels during the #pandemic in spite of the rise in unemployment. Expansionary fiscal & monetary policies initiated at the #EU level significantly contributed to this outcome. Felix Roth, Lars Jonung cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A graph of unemployment and net public support for the euro in the EA19 countries, 1999-2022. During the 2020-2021 there was a sharp rise in support for the euro, despite an uptick in unemployment.

The COVID pandemic had disastrous effects on health and economic activity worldwide. In the euro area, mandatory lockdowns contributed to a sharp fall in production and a rapid rise in unemployment, inducing an expansionary fiscal and monetary response. This column examines the effects of the pandemic and the ensuing economic policies on public support for the euro. Public support reached historically high levels during the pandemic in spite of the rise in unemployment. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies initiated at the EU level significantly contributed to this outcome, which was not seen during previous crises in the euro area.

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Francesco PAPADIA @francz.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Lagarde#: risks are all over the place. Does this mean more or less caution when moving or not moving? In any case, it seems that the downward direction of rates is no longer clear.

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