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Florian Foos

@florianfoos.bsky.social
5K followers 1.9K following 985 posts

Associate Professor in Political Behaviour at the LSE. I like campaigns and do experiments. www.florianfoos.net

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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 10h
Polanski has also failed to show to voters on the centre-left that the Greens would be a credible party of government, e.g. on foreign affairs. Labour will be pleased with this.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 10h
Agree with this take: kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-figure... This is not a good result for the Greens. Burnham's strategy of turning left on the economy and signalling on a couple of issues such as Gaza and the EU seems to be working, at least for now.
kellnerp.substack.com
The figures that make Sagal Abdi-Wali’s victory remarkable
Ignore the Greens’ misleading claims. It was a catastrophic night for Zack Polanski
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The CDU is crucial to the stability of German democracy, but this doesn’t look stable at all.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Worrying that 1/3 of CDU deputies in Saxony Anhalt very likely crossed over and voted for the AfD state parliament speaker.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Good Tory policy on universal free childcare hours- the current system really does set crazy counterproductive incentives for taxpayers around the threshold. And earning a lot of money (and paying a lot of tax) shouldn’t mean that you should be excluded from these types of working parent benefits.
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Postdoc position within my group 3 years (100% TVl-13): stellen.uni-muenster.de/jobposting/2... ⏱️ 06.11.2026 If you have questions: get in touch!
stellen.uni-muenster.de
Postdoctoral Research Associate (Wissenschaftliche*r Mitarbeiter*in, salary level E 13 TV-L)
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November
Job adjob ad
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Mathias Poertner @mathiaspoertner.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Looking forward to the launch of our brand-new LSE Comparative Politics seminar series today! www.lse.ac.uk/government/r... @lsegovernment.bsky.social @pavisuri.bsky.social @carlmc.bsky.social @gofosu.bsky.social @joekendall.bsky.social
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Laia Balcells @laiabalcells.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Consequential histories: A field experiment at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum" Just accepted at the Journal of Politics www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Consequential histories: A field experiment at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It‘s really not clear at all, where the country goes from here.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I guess there is a point to drawing a dividing line and letting the PSD-AUR majority look a bit ridiculous in hearings, but it doesn’t make forming a government any easier.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Unless I‘m missing something, it looks very unlikely that Muresan will get anywhere close to enough MPs to support his minority government at the investiture vote tomorrow and this has been clear for some time, so it‘s a bit of a puzzle to me why we are going through the motions here.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It sets out a vision where they want to take the country. It also makes it more likely that we’ll get an earlier election, not next year, but in 2028.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This is a strategy of having it both ways- sticking to fiscal rules and thinking big. Making big promises that you don’t have to implement immediately- it’s clever because „small steps now, big steps later“ gets centre-left parties out of the immediate fiscal constraint, at least for a while.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
That was overall a good speech from Burnham with some big ideas including electoral reform, social care reform and an open-ended relationship with the EU. The strategy here is to set out a bold progressive agenda, but leave implementation for after an election (or when there is fiscal room re care).
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A lack of obvious talent in politics is a problem for parties on the centre-left in other countries. I don’t see that in the US (which has other problems, but talent isn’t one).
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Might be a bit controversial, but a party that counts amongst its potential Presidential candidates politicians of the caliber of Ossoff and AOC is maybe not quite as badly in crisis as it appears. There is a talented millennial generation ready to lead.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
If, as predicted, Muresan loses the vote, all cards are off again & President Dan might continue to look for that elusive government formula that can get enough votes in parliament (it's been 5 months now), or the country might be heading towards new elections, with far-right AUR leading the polls.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Kimberly Guilfoyle, Trump's Ambassador to Greece, allegedly claimed as much at a dinner with a Greek minister & there were meetings between the PSD Party President & Guilfoyle in spring.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
It looks very unlikely right now, but not entirely impossible, that they will gain the votes needed. This comes after speculation that the last coalition government was brought down by PSD & AUR, in coordination with the Trump admin...
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
... which rocked the Romanian justice system earlier this year. Romania is heading for a highly uncertain investiture vote this Wednesday for a reformist minority government headed by Siegfried Muresan, the national-liberal MEP, supported by PNL, USR & UDMR (the Hungarian minority).
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Was on the morning flight from Cluj to Bucharest & spotted the designated Minister of Justice, the independent reformist, former judge & BBU Law Prof Andrea Chiș, a few rows down. She is known for speaking out in the Recorder documentary "Captured Justice" ...
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Inadvertently interfering in the Romanian pastry wars…
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
And here is the link to our paper on the attitudinal effects of the Merseyside Sun boycott: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Tabloid Media Campaigns and Public Opinion: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Euroscepticism in England | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Tabloid Media Campaigns and Public Opinion: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Euroscepticism in England - Volume 116 Issue 1
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Burnham sticks to his guns re exclusives for the Sun. Born in Merseyside he grew up in the North West.As Minister he helped set up the Hillsborough Independent Panel: www.bbc.com/news/article.... Here are my thoughts from '23 about Labour's relationship with the press: fabians.org.uk/pressing-the...
bbc.com
Burnham will not do 'special interviews' with Sun newspaper
The prime minister says he will do his "own communications", differently to others in the past.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Clan-ähnliche Strukturen...
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Ja - ich sehe das schon auch, also ich bin da etwas hin und her gerissen. Aber die CDU könnte mal wieder ihr Profil schärfen und die Linken könnten linke(re) Politik machen. Es gibt ja klare Differenzen zwischen CDU und Linken in vielen Politikfeldern.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Also wird man sehen, ob es nötig ist oder nicht bzw wieviele Abgeordnete bei RGR nicht mitmachen wollen...
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Warum sollen wir jetzt von vorne rein immer Allparteienkoalition gegen die AfD machen, wenn es arithmetisch gar nicht nötig ist?
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Naja, es gibt hier eine Mehrheit für eine 3 Parteien Koalition ohne die CDU. Das ist, denke ich, für die Parteien Links - Mitte Links besser und für die CDU auch. Soll sie doch gegen RGR Opposition machen. Gut für Accountability, wenn da nicht nur die AfD rumschreit.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Ja, aber die CDU wird nicht mit der Berliner Linken koalieren (muss sie auch nicht). Also wäre es am Ende doch rein strategisch, weil man die Antwort eh schon weiß?
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Call for Proposals: EPSS Copenhagen 2027 Pre-Conference Workshops! We're seeking proposals for workshops on 23 June 2027, at the University of Copenhagen. Whether you are a senior scholar or an ECR, we want your expertise! ⏳Deadline: 13 Nov 2026 🔗Apply here: epssnet.org/2027-copenha... #EPSS2027
epssnet.org
Pre-Conference Workshops EPSS 2027
Submit your proposal for a pre-conference workshop at the EPSS 2027 Conference in Copenhagen to lead focused discussions and skill-building sessions for political science scholars.
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Mara Weber @marathwe.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
📢 CALL FOR PAPERS! We invite submissions for the Political Methodology Seminar Series on frontiers in empirical political science and CSS. We welcome research examining political behaviour, public opinion, comparative politics, and CSS. Research on adjacent topics are also highly encouraged.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Great news, Konstantin!
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Also es könnte schon sein, dass der Switch hin zur Mobilisierung um die 2000er dazu geführt hat, dass vielleicht weniger Themen gesetzt wurden.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
hm gute Frage. Meine eigene Forschung zeigt, dass Mobilisierungskampagnen von Mainstreamparteien in den letzten Jahren weniger gut funktionieren als noch vor 10-20 Jahren und auf dem Aggregat korreliert das natürlich mit dem Erstarken von extrem rechts, aber ich kenne kein spezifisches Papier dazu.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Kann schon sein... 🤷‍♂️
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Erinnert mich ein bisschen an den Kommunikationsype nach Scholz/SPD 2021. Die gleiche Agentur hat auch 2025 gemacht. Die Effekte von diesen Sachen sind wahrscheinlich schon da, aber nicht riesig.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Ich denke in MV wird der Kommunikation viel zu viel Kredit gegeben. Wie du geschrieben hast, ist Schwesig halt ne langjährige Ministerpräsidentin mit Amtsinhaberinbonus. Sie hat im Wahlkampf keine Fehler gemacht, aber jetzt so zu tun als ob das der kreativste Wahlkampf war... naja.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
So eine Anti-AfD Mobilisierungs-Kampagne kann schon funktionieren, aber das nutzt sich bis zur nächsten BW halt auch ab, wenn man das jetzt bei jeder Landtagswahl macht.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Das komischste war der "Wir sind der Deich" Metaphor der SPD S-A. Das ist doch alles Binnenland dort ...
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Fun fact: I think Hagen, the current general secretary belonged to that wing once, but at one point decided to drift right.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
In what came afterwards, in my understanding, the main issue was that the most promising candidate of the civil liberties wing, Konstantin Kuhle, decided against standing and left politics.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
And much closer to today‘s UK Tories in their thinking on the budget, the environment and immigration, the main reason why the FDP broke the last coalition, which also cost them support.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Yes.. fair point on the pandemic. The traffic light coalition also has genuine achievements when it comes to implementing liberal nationality, family and name law, all originating with the justice ministry led by Marco Buschman, a FDP minister. But Lindner was always uncomfortable with that…
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I assume if they can agree there could be an option where Wüst leads the CDU and Söder becomes Chancellor.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
You know the party much better than I do. Why do you think he won’t be able to stay on? The problem I see is that there is no obvious replacement who‘d go for it. Do you expect Wüst and/or Söder to move? Söder maybe?
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Much is made of state specific reasons, but the CDU's losses are perfectly in line with national polls that have them at around 20%. MV was one of their weakest states to start (despite Merkel's former constituency being there). While levels are different, both MV & Berlin moved in parallel: -8%p.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Side note: This is not only another very bad result for the CDU, but for the centre-right in general. The FDP doesn't even factor anymore. 1% in MV and likely no more than 2-3% in Berlin. Looks like the populist rebirth of the Free Democrats isn't quite going to plan.
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Now more likely than not that the CDU will fail to cross the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. This is consistent with the ongoing count.
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