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Fabian Dablander

@fdabl.bsky.social
2.5K followers 413 following 199 posts

Assistant Prof @ LSE || Climate action, tipping points, sufficiency, social movements. fabiandablander.com

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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Techno-optimistic scientists also reported fewer high-impact lifestyle changes. They were less likely to reduce flying or car use or adopt plant-rich diets. We found little difference for switching to EVs or renewable energy at home. On average, engagement in lifestyle changes was 18% lower.
Figure 3 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Techno-optimistic scientists reported less civic climate action. Across all forms of civic engagement—especially signing petitions and participating in protests—techno-optimistic scientists were less likely to participate. On average, engagement was 23% lower.
Figure 3 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Techno-optimism is common: 27% agreed, 44% disagreed, 29% neither agreed nor disagreed. Levels did not differ depending on whether scientists worked on climate change, while politically right-leaning scientists were substantially more likely to be techno-optimists (48% versus 16%).
Figure 2 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
We estimated the share of scientists who believe that "advances in technology will largely solve the problems caused by climate change". Using causally informed Bayesian regression models, we then estimated how techno-optimism relates to civic actions and high-impact lifestyle changes.
Figure 1 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
🔥 Our paper on techno-optimism and climate action among scientists is now published! With @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social & @jmbh.bsky.social, we studied 9,199 scientists across 115 countries. 🧵 🔗 Paper: tinyurl.com/4yb7fj97 📰 The Guardian: tinyurl.com/sy5rrbdx
Title page of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I can't wait to pick up my copy of End Times Fascism by @naomiaklein.bsky.social & @astra.bsky.social today. I suspect this will be another era-defining book. The NYT interviewed them over the weekend and it's a masterclass in the complicity of the political centre: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GDK...
Astra Taylor and Naomi Klein's reaction to an NYT interviewer defending Elon Musk
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
🔥Most heat deaths attributable to climate change In work led by @adamfinnemann.bsky.social and with Reinout Wiers & @jmbh.bsky.social, we estimate heat deaths attributable to climate change in the Netherlands 1971-2019 across sex & age. Link: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Title pageFigure 3 of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
One of the greatest joys of my career has been co-organising the annual Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change (ACSCC, @acscc.bsky.social). In a new blog post, I reflect on why we started ACSCC, what it has become, and what comes next: seven.uva.nl/en/output/bl...
List of ACSCC speakers 2024 - 2026
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Climate concern, political trust, and the feeling that politicians care about people like oneself showed even larger effects than material life satisfaction. These factors have been established in previous studies, and our results confirm their significance in a large Dutch sample.
Figure S6 of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Our outcome measure was willingness to contribute 1% of one's household income to climate action. Material life satisfaction showed a strong effect, while satisfaction with one's social life, physical health, and mental health only showed negligible or no causal effects.
Figure 3 of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
At the same time, satisfaction with one's future perspective was notably lower. While 59% reported being satisfied or very satisfied, 17% reported being not satisfied or not satisfied at all.
Figure 2 of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Across most life domains, respondents reported relatively high levels of satisfaction. Overall life satisfaction was especially high: 82% reported being satisfied or very satisfied, and only 6% reported being not satisfied or not satisfied at all.
Figure 2 of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
We used directed acyclic graphs to make our causal assumptions explicit and to guide covariate adjustment. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential impact of unobserved income confounding, which shows that the estimated effects remained robust and only mildly attenuated.
Figure 1 of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
🔥 Material life satisfaction increases willingness to engage in costly climate action @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, & I use causally informed regression models to estimate the effect of life satisfaction on climate action in a large Dutch sample (N = 22,749): osf.io/preprints/ps...
Title page of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
4️⃣ 𝐀𝐝𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 Causes, impacts, & mitigation were much more covered than aspects relating to adaptation. 5️⃣ 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 The overall pattern of reporting is very similar to German newspapers, with The Guardian being most similar to left-leaning outlets.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
2️⃣ 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐥 𝐟𝐮𝐞𝐥𝐬 Agriculture is responsible for 1/3 of emissions, yet was mentioned ten times less than fossil fuels as a cause (in 5.8% of articles vs 59.7%). Similarly, economic growth, overconsumption, carbon inequality appeared in only 2.4-6.3% of articles.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬: 1️⃣ 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 2018 We found a clear upward shift in coverage from late 2018 onward, coinciding with several key events, including heightened climate mobilization, the publication of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, and The Guardian's climate pledge.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
We used IPCC-aligned questions covering causes, impacts, mitigation, and adaptation, and large language models for deductive content analysis. The Guardian provides easy access to all their articles using an open API, so we did not have to build custom scraping tools like in previous work.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
🚨 Climate change coverage in The Guardian In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 18,000 articles about climate change in @theguardian.com (2010-2025) using large language models 🧵 🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
Title page of our preprint
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
We recently published a report from a project at SEVEN, in which we used group model building to map the systems shaping home insulation and shifting electricity use away from peak hours in the Netherlands: seven.uva.nl/en/content/n... It also highlights something broader about behaviour change 🧵
Simplified Causal Loop Diagram for Insulating to the Standard
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
3️⃣ 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐩𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬' 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠. Left-leaning outlets more frequently reported that climate change is human-caused, highlighted fossil fuels as a cause, emphasized the need to reduce their use, and discussed systemic drivers more often.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
We found: 1️⃣ 𝐀𝐝𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐫𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝. Aspects relating to causes, impacts, & mitigation were much more covered than aspects relating to adaptation. 2️⃣ 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐥 𝐟𝐮𝐞𝐥𝐬. Agriculture, overconsumption, carbon inequality, & economic growth were rarely mentioned.
Figure 1 of the paper summarizing our main results
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
We built a custom scraping methodology to get access to virtually all articles about climate change published in major German newspapers since 2010. We then designed a structured set of IPCC-aligned questions covering causes, impacts, mitigation, and adaptation, and used LLMs for content analysis.
Set of questions we asked for each news article
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
🚨 Mapping climate change coverage In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵 🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
Title page of our paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
I just noticed this too. DeepL suggested I refer to a different different book from the same author. I'm out!
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
I am beyond excited to announce that the applications are now open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change! Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change. More info: acscc.nl
Announcement that the applications are open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change, with speakers including Clare Farrell, Ben Franta, Julia Steinberger, Vítor Vasconcelos, and Rachel Donald, with more to come!
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Techno-optimistic scientists were less likely to engage in civic action (e.g., signing petitions, participating in protests) and high-impact lifestyle changes (e.g., reducing flying, shifting to plant-rich diets) On average, their engagement was 28% and 20% lower, respectively.
Model-implied percentages of civic action and lifestyle changes for scientists who agree and disagree with techno-optimism, respectively.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
We found that applied sciences show the highest levels of techno-optimism and humanities the lowest. Interestingly, levels did not differ based on whether scientists work on climate change. Scientists on the political right were more likely to be techno-optimists.
Model-based percentage estimates of techno-optimism and its relationship to climate-relatedness of a scientist's work, scientific field, and political orientation.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
We estimated the share of scientists who believe that "advances in technology will largely solve the problems caused by climate change" and used causally informed Bayesian regression models to estimate the impact of techno-optimism on scientists' civic actions and high-impact lifestyle changes.
Directed acyclic graph depicting hypothesized causal relationships
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵 🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
Title page of the paper "Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate action"
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
🔥We've crossed 7 out of 9 planetary boundaries, & global heating is accelerating. What is to be done? 24 scholars, activists & practitioners met at a 5-day workshop to explore how to accelerate collective climate action. Our summary report is out now ⤵️ 🔗 tinyurl.com/cxxembyw 🔗 tinyurl.com/54rmhykx
Poster of the workshop, including the names of all participants and organisersGroup picture of the participants
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
There is marked variation between countries, and this appears to differ across hazards. For example, hurricanes, mudslides, and wildfires show similar effects across countries, while the effects of earthquakes, sandstorms, and droughts vary strongly across countries.
Figure 4 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
The data also includes a resilience index defined at the individual level, combining individual, household, community, and societal resilience factors: www.lrfoundation.org.uk/wrp/world-ri... Risk perceptions do not seem to change differently for people with low or high resilience.
Figure 3 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
I use hierarchical Bayesian multinomial regression modeling, which allows me to investigate what level of risk perception is different for people with hazard experience. Importantly, people with hazard experience tend to view climate change as a very serious threat, not just a somewhat serious one!
Figure S2 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
I leverage this data source to assess whether experience with different hazards is associated with increased climate risk perception. The individual-level effects are consistent and, for some hazards, comparable to having a university degree! Effects at the country level are small & uncertain
Figure 2 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
I use the World Risk Poll data, which includes information on whether respondents have personally experienced a climate-related hazard in the last five years, whether they perceive climate change as a threat to their country, and a multidimensional resilience indicator. www.lrfoundation.org.uk/wrp
Figure 1 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
🔥 Climate hazard paper published! Using nationally representative survey data from 142 countries (N = 128,093), I find that people who have experienced a climate-related hazard are more likely to consider climate change a 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵. 🧵 Link: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Abstract and title of the paperFigure 1 in the paperFigure 2 in the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
🔥Growing the climate movement by centering transformative adaptation In a new preprint, Kevin Young, @swaziadam.bsky.social, & I advocate for transformative adaptation as a framework to better connect people's material interests with climate change and increase mobilization. osf.io/preprints/so...
Title page and abstract of our new preprint
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
How are the climate activist groups themselves portrayed? We found large differences between Fridays for Future and Last Generation, as well as large differences between newspapers. More disruption → more negative coverage More to the political right → more negative coverage
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
How is climate change portrayed in articles about the activist groups? We used (& validated) GPT-4 as a tool to help us assess all 4,216 articles, which worked very well! A substantial proportion of articles did not discuss risks & solutions, and there were large diff. between groups & newspapers.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
We scraped news articles of seven major German newspapers, ranging from the politically left-leaning @taz.de to the politically right-leaning BILD. We identified 4,216 articles that were mainly about Fridays for Future or Last Generation. Actions drive coverage!
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Are climate activists portrayed as polarising & violent in the news media? Are risks & solutions to climate change mentioned? We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
The second point is a bit nuanced, and I have elaborated on it a bit more on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/posts/fabian... This letter was a collaboration with the great Florian Lange, @cameronbrick.bsky.social, & @swaziadam.bsky.social. You can find the authors' reply at www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fabian-dablander_expressing-intentions-is-not-climate-action-activity-7346794822457819136-v5gn
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
In our now published letter in @pnas.org, we raise two wider issues for behavioral science: 1) Intentions are poor predictors of behavior 2) Effects on intentions need not generalize to effects on behavior We join calls for researchers to measure actual behavior: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Expressing intentions is not climate action letter published in PNAS: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2512457122
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
I greatly enjoyed our workshop on climate action, which brought together experienced organizers & engaged scholars for a week of reflection & discussion. Outputs coming fall. We need more of these spaces! Organized w @swaziadam.bsky.social Dipti @berglundoscar.bsky.social @jksteinberger.bsky.social
Poster of the Lorentz workshop "Understanding and Accelerating Collective Climate Action"
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
🔥 Climate impacts & perception I significantly updated my preprint, which using representative survey data from 142 countries (N=128,093) shows that climate hazard experience is related to higher climate risk perception. Now includes an exploration of country heterogeneity: osf.io/preprints/ps...
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
I really enjoyed speaking with a group of highly engaged students last week about the climate crisis, the failures of current climate policy, and how collective action can help secure a livable future. 📑 Slides: tinyurl.com/s6bkjrbv 🎥 Recording of a similar talk from 2023: tinyurl.com/yay564ks
Title slide of a guest lecture ("Climate Action in a World on Fire") at the University of Amsterdam
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
Hi Ben, thanks for the question, this point is a bit nuanced and there is limited space here, so please see the longer reply attached. Florian Lange makes a similar point in this paper, which we refer to in our letter: link.springer.com/article/10.3.... Hope this helps!
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
🚨 Expressing intentions is not climate action 🚨 In behavioral science & environmental psychology, we often measure intentions — people saying they intend to drive less, eat plant-based, or join a protest — rather than actual behavior. There are two big problems with this: osf.io/preprints/ps... 🧵
Title page of a short commentary submitted to PNAS by Florian Lange, Cameron Brick, Adam Aron, and myself
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
I sent the following letter to The Guardian in response to this piece by Mahmoud Khalil: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre.... They didn't end up publishing it, but I thought I would share it here anyway.
Mahmoud Khalil's letter to his newborn son is one of the most heartbreaking things I have read in my entire life. It is heartbreaking to see him detained for peacefully advocating – under his First Amendment rights – for an end to genocide. It is heartbreaking to see him denied the opportunity to be present at the birth of his son and to support his partner in one of life’s most profound moments.

It is heartbreaking to see the images of Palestinians – mothers, fathers, and their children – being slaughtered every day in Gaza; to witness the suffering of those in wars they did not choose; to know that the world too often looks the other way. These are dark times, with no shortage of reasons to despair.

But Khalil's letter also shows us the most powerful weapon against despair: Courage. Courage to speak out when silence would be safer. Courage to stand firm when surrender would be easier. Courage to defend the oppressed when almost everyone else has abandoned them. Courage to maintain one's humanity in the face of barbarism.

Mahmoud Khalil and those who continue to stand up for Palestine show us that in these dark times, courage can light the way. Let us follow their example.
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