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Jonas Haslbeck

@jmbh.bsky.social
1K followers 277 following 37 posts

Assistant Professor @Methods&Stats Utrecht University; working on Applied Statistics, Time Series Modeling, Dynamical Systems, Generative AI, Climate Change; www.jonashaslbeck.com

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Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
🔥Most heat deaths attributable to climate change In work led by @adamfinnemann.bsky.social and with Reinout Wiers & @jmbh.bsky.social, we estimate heat deaths attributable to climate change in the Netherlands 1971-2019 across sex & age. Link: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Title pageFigure 3 of the paper
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Jon @jontafkasi.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
4 picture meme: 
1. "My genius machine will find solutions to all the world problems". 
2. /computer - "Thinking", 
3. /computer - "You already have all the solutions. You just refuse to implement them to protect the financial interests of the wealthiest 0.001%"
4. Inventor - /unplugs machine, "It just needs some tweaking"
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Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
1/ We have a PhD position open on 'Mental Disorders as Harmful Stable States'. If you know students interested in the intersection of mental health & statistical modeling (EMA & time series), please encourage them to apply. www.academictransfer.com/nl/jobs/3621...
academictransfer.com
PhD Position on "Mental disorders as harmful stable states"
PhD Position on “Mental disorders as harmful stable states” The departments Clinical Psychology and Methodology & Statistics, at the Institute of Psychology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Leiden Univers...
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AI, Media & Democracy Lab @aimediademlab.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
🔎 How to use LLMs to analyze news coverage? @fdabl.bsky.social, postdoc at @seven-uva.bsky.social, presented to us research conducted with @jmbh.bsky.social and Simon Wimmer as part of the Climate Media Lab on how media cover climate change, which also employed a new LLM-based methodology.
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Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Using (multilevel) VAR models? Ever checked how well they actually fit your data? @jmbh.bsky.social & I created VARcheck, an R package for visual model checking for VAR models. Blogpost with workflow: bsiepe.github.io/blog/2026-05... 📝Paper: doi.org/10.31234/osf... 💻Docs: bsiepe.github.io/VARcheck/
The image shows two plots. On the left-hand side, you can see a plot showing empirical & predicted time series in the plot, and a distribution of empirical values on the right-hand side. The R² of the model is 0.28, and the RMSE is 1.28. 
On the right side, we see a plot of residuals over time as well as their marginal distribution, again on the ride side of the plot. We also see that the autoregressive coefficient of the residuals is 0.16.
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
🔥 Material life satisfaction increases willingness to engage in costly climate action @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, & I use causally informed regression models to estimate the effect of life satisfaction on climate action in a large Dutch sample (N = 22,749): osf.io/preprints/ps...
Title page of the paper
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
🚨 Climate change coverage in The Guardian In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 18,000 articles about climate change in @theguardian.com (2010-2025) using large language models 🧵 🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
Title page of our preprint
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Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
🚨 Techno-optimism reduces willingness to address climate change 🚨 In a new preprint, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @fdabl.bsky.social, and I examined the causal effect of techno-optimist beliefs on the willingness to contribute to addressing climate change. 🔗 Read the paper: lnkd.in/eE847_jK
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Leonie Vogelsmeier @leonievogelsmeier.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
📢 Call for Papers: We’re excited to announce an upcoming Psychometrika Special Issue on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics (think of using many datasets for methodological development), guest edited by @klint.bsky.social, @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, Ben Domingue, and me.
psychometricsociety.org
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Omid V. Ebrahimi @omidvebrahimi.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
🌟📝 Just out in World Psychiatry: Our new piece demonstrates the added value of dynamic symptom networks for predicting treatment outcomes beyond baseline severity & common covariates, with an added explained variance of 9-22% at post-treatment & follow-up. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
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Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data. If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition. eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
eiko-fried.com
WARN-D machine learning competition is live » Eiko Fried
If you share one single thing of our team in 2026—on social media or per email with your colleagues—please let it be this machine learning competition. It was half a decade of work to get here, especi...
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 09/12/2025
Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
screenshot of my post
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Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
🚨Model Checking for Vector Autoregressive Models 🚨 In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
🚨 Mapping climate change coverage In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵 🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
Title page of our paper
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
We are beyond excited to announce that the applications are now open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change! Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change. More info: acscc.nl
Announcement that the applications are open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change, with speakers including Clare Farrell, Ben Franta, Julia Steinberger, Vítor Vasconcelos, and Rachel Donald, with more to come!
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵 🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
Title page of the paper "Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate action"
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Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
We built the openESM database: ▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place ▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software ▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python Find out more: 🌐 openesmdata.org 📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
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Karoline Huth @karolinehuth.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Happy to share that our large-scale network analysis is now out in @nathumbehav.nature.com We show that networks are often supported by too little evidence from the data for results to be reported with confidence, not meaning that results are flawed but rather suggests caution in interpretation.
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Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.
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Lorentz Center @lorentzcenter.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Experts with theoretical traditions, researchers experienced in approaches to theory construction, educators and policymakers work on the first steps toward creating a mature subfield of theoretical psychology. bit.ly/4nLOWoE @annemscheel.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Are climate activists portrayed as polarising & violent in the news media? Are risks & solutions to climate change mentioned? We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer
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Julia Carrie Wong @joolia.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
“States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an outcome with irreversible consequences for our shared humanity”
ohchr.org
End unfolding genocide or watch it end life in Gaza: UN experts say States face defining choice
GENEVA – Escalating atrocities in Gaza present an urgent moral crossroads and States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an out...
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
What a show on the last day of ACSCC 2025 where our brilliant participants presented the culmination of their week-long collaborations. Buckle up for today’s highlights👇
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Time flies and we are already halfway through ACSCC! Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
The second day of ACSCC was again full of inspiring lectures and discussions! Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
The second edition of ACSCC is officially underway! We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
We are very excited about the line-up of speakers for ACSCC, which kicks off next week! The following talks can also be followed online: Tim Lenton: tinyurl.com/5d9ubts9 Joyeeta Gupta: tinyurl.com/kbk92rap Doyne Farmer: tinyurl.com/vdrhjvwe Vítor Vasconcelos: uva-live.zoom.us/j/89976716302
Line-up of our speakers: Tim Lenton, Doyne Farmer, Joyeeta Gupta, Liesbeth van Tongeren, Vitor Vasconcelos, Ben Franta, Heleen Ekker, Lydia Baan Hofman, Erika van der Linden, Pippi van Ommen, Agat Sharma, Laura Cull O Maoilearca
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SAA 2025 Leuven @saa2025leuven.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
How can Multilevel Hidden Markov Models help uncover personalized dynamics? Find out in the post-conference session on May 29 with Emmeke Aarts (Utrecht University), Jonas Haslbeck (University of Amsterdam), and Pepijn Vink (Utrecht University)! @jmbh.bsky.social
saa2025.com
SAA 2025
Society for Ambulatory Assessment Conference 2025
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Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
1/3 Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with: - Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding - Models to get some first insights - Further reading boxes for more advanced topics - Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data
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Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
New preprint by Anja Ernst and me on Modeling Qualitative Between-Person Heterogeneity in Time-Series using Latent Class Vector Autoregressive Models (osf.io/preprints/ps...)
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
🚨 New preprint! 🚨 We analysed over one million actions reported in the AWorld app, the UN's official platform for individual action on climate change: osf.io/preprints/ps... This was an exciting collaboration with @kristiansn89.bsky.social, Jan Bauer, Laura Basconi, & @cameronbrick.bsky.social 🧵👇
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Karoline Huth @karolinehuth.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Are psychometric networks sufficiently supported by data such that one can be confident when interpreting its results? We analysed 294 psychometric networks from 126 papers with the Bayesian approach to address this question @jmbh.bsky.social Sara Ruth van Holst @maartenmarsman.bsky.social 🧵
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
🔍 Speaker Spotlight: Tim Lenton We are honored to have leading Earth system scientist Tim Lenton, who introduced 'climate tipping points' to the literature. Recently, his focus expanded to social tipping points as means to a sustainable future. ⏳ Last chance to apply at acscc.nl
acscc.nl
Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change
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Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change @acscc.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Speaker Spotlight: Vítor V. Vasconcelos What is complexity? Vítor will kick off ACSCC with a primer on complex systems. He’s an Assistant Professor at UvA, co-leads POLDER, and works on collective behavior and unintended consequences in social systems. ⏳ Final days to apply at acscc.nl
acscc.nl
Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
⏳ 10 days left to apply! ⏳ There are only 10 days left to apply for @acscc.bsky.social hosted at @iasamsterdam.bsky.social! Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate people on challenges related to climate change: acscc.nl
Information on the Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change, including dates (April 28 - May 2) and confirmed speakers so far (Tim Lenton, Joyeeta Gupta, Doyne Farmer, Liesbeth van Tongeren, Vitor Vasconcelos, Pippi van Ommen)
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Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Emotions are reactions to situations we encounter in daily life. In our new paper in Psych Review (psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...; with @oisinryan.bsky.social and @fdabl.bsky.social), we take a first step towards building a generative model for emotion dynamics based on this simple principle 1/4
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Maarten Marsman @maartenmarsman.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
This is a collaborative effort with amazing colleagues: Lourens Waldorp, Nikola Sekulovski, and @jmbh.bsky.social. 🙌 Thanks to this team for their hard work in advancing Bayesian methods in network analysis!
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
How are climate activist groups @fridaysforfuture.bsky.social and @letztegeneration.bsky.social portrayed in the media? We used ChatGPT and frequency analysis on all news articles in major German newspapers to answer this question. @jmbh.bsky.social Updated preprint: osf.io/preprints/ps...
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Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
We have an opening for a PhD on creating simulation models guiding the selection of treatments for mental disorders at the University of Amsterdam with the NSMD consortium: www.academictransfer.com/en/347555/ph...
academictransfer.com
PhD Position: Simulation Tool to Compare Outcomes of Treatments in Psychopathology
We are looking for a PhD candidate to join our research project entitled “Simulation tool to compare outcomes of treatments in psychopathology”. The project is part of the Gravitation grant “New Scien...
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Fabian Dablander @fdabl.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Climate action paper published! 🎉 In a large survey, we found that climate researchers engage in much more advocacy and activism than non-climate researchers. The difference in lifestyle changes was considerably smaller. www.nature.com/articles/s44... @maiensachis.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social
nature.com
Climate actions by climate and non-climate researchers - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Climate actions by climate and non-climate researchers
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Giovanni Briganti, M.D., Ph.D. @briganti.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Our long didactic paper on #network analysis, written with many of the amazing scientists that work in the field is finally out in IJMPR and open access ! It was a long and collaborative effort two years in the making, but, it was worth it! Please repost onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Network analysis: An overview for mental health research
Network approaches to psychopathology have become increasingly common in mental health research, with many theoretical and methodological developments quickly gaining traction. This article illustrat...
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Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
Eager to tackle challenges related to climate change? Then apply for the upcoming Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change (ACSCC), hosted by the Institute for Advanced Study, which brings together early-career researchers from all disciplines and non-academic stakeholders. Website: acscc.nl
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